2021 Comprehensive Draft Thread

[OVCChairman]

 

 

Va Tech's O-line has been sneaky good this year....

[mhd24]

1 minute ago, OVCChairman said:

 

 

Va Tech's O-line has been sneaky good this year....

If we win the division, he's the guy I think we might take with our relatively late first rounder.

[KDawg]

47 minutes ago, Riggo#44 said:

 

This is why I am higher on Lance than most in here, I think (Which means he will probably suck, because I have no idea what I am really talking about...)

 

I don't know. I'm pretty high on Lance from an intangible point of view. I really like him.

 

I do worry about his development in this media frenzy/fan crazed sector of the NFL. I realize most fanbases are irrational, but we legit have people saying Young is a bust. What the hell is going to happen if Lance doesn't play for a year or 2?

 

Lance NEEDS development.

 

Not refinement.

 

Development.

 

Wilson needs refinement. (which people often use "development" in substitute for refining).

 

FIelds needs refinement.

 

Lawrence needs refinement.

 

Lance needs DEVELOPMENT. He needs his game to be developed.

 

Who knows how long that takes? Maybe he only needs a few weeks. Maybe he needs a few years.

[Skinsinparadise]

24 minutes ago, Riggo#44 said:

 

I posted a scouting video of him doing just that, at least what I saw. After seeing that he climbed a bit for me. And, while you never want to see him do it in the NFL, I love the attitude of his--lowering his shoulder into DBs like a running back--delivering the blow rather than receiving it.

 

Like you, I've seen glowing reports about his work ethic, which makes him even higher in my book. I think the intanglibes...or Skinstangibles, if you will, are there.

 

Yeah that's why I said most of the time versus always.  If you sit through his games, I found three of them, on most plays he's staring right at his first read.  But yeah on a few plays he went through progressions.  He from what I recall had a real nice one where he looked off a safety and threw a beauty in the opposite direction of what I assumed was his first read to his next read and it was a big time play.  But not a lot of that from him.  At least no so in the games i watched.

 

You almost always though see exceptions with players so my focus is on what happens most of the time.  I ironically made that part of my point about Haskins when I did my write up on him before the draft.  i said something to the effect that you can see on what i perceived to be Haskins weaknesses -- exceptions.  I pointed out how Reddick on Path to the Draft for example would find a clip on something where he'd give an I told you do so type of vibe -- people didn't think Haskins could do so and so but look at this and then he'd post said clip on twitter.

 

Bringing this back to Lance, I can't recall watching a QB who stares as much to his first read as he does.  I do think looking off safeties and working through progressions is a skill that can be developed.    But you can't teach speed-mobility.  You can't teach arm strength.  I don't even think you can teach intangibles -- I think you either got it or you don't.   He has these traits big time.

    

Edited December 4, 2020 by Skinsinparadise

[KDawg]

6 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

 

 

Bringing this back to Lance, I can't recall watching a QB who stares as much to his first read as he does.  I do think looking off safeties and working through progressions is a skill that can be developed.    But you can't teach speed-mobility.  You can't teach arm strength.   He has both big time.

    

 

[Skinsinparadise]

14 minutes ago, OVCChairman said:

 

Va Tech's O-line has been sneaky good this year....

 

Darrisaw I noticed has some big time hype.  I got to get to watching him.

 

 

 

[KDawg]

I see so much of Josh Allen in Trey Lance. Who knows if that project pans out the same way... but they are so similar.

 

On the downside... in the NFL... Allen is a walking turnover. On the positive, he gives his team a chance in every game and at times elevates them to wins. 
 

If we could take Lance and we were told he’d be less turnover prone, same rushing ability, but also less big plays...

 

Would you pull the trigger in the top 10?

 

Top 20?

 

First round?

 

(“you” meaning everyone in this thread)

[Skinsinparadise]

26 minutes ago, KDawg said:

I see so much of Josh Allen in Trey Lance. Who knows if that project pans out the same way... but they are so similar.

 

On the downside... in the NFL... Allen is a walking turnover. On the positive, he gives his team a chance in every game and at times elevates them to wins. 
 

If we could take Lance and we were told he’d be less turnover prone, same rushing ability, but also less big plays...

 

Would you pull the trigger in the top 10?

 

Top 20?

 

First round?

 

(“you” meaning everyone in this thread)

 

I doubt he escapes the top 10, maybe top 15 at worst?    Some of the high ceiling/lowish floor college QBs have slipped down the draft in recent years and ultimately became better than some of the dudes drafted ahead of them.  Allen including in that mix.  So I think its a lesson that will resonate with executives. 

 

I think you can use him right away as a Taysom Hill type on steroids.  He has a better arm than Taysom and is a better runner.  So I think you can use him in spots ASAP especially in the red zone.   Considering Turner likes backfield motion, RPOs, some RO -- i think it would be worrisome for defenses in the red zone to have to worry about Gibson (who has a nose for the end zone) in the backfield and Lance keeping the ball himself.  Lance is a different type of runner than RG3.  He's not as big as Cam.  But he's big enough to shed tackles and plow through defenders which you could see him do in college. 

 

He actually likes running right up the A gap.   Like Cam, like can run inside or outside.   RG3 seemed to oddly like contact but he got knocked around like a rag doll.  Lance might not be as fast as RG3 was but he looks close enough and he has some running back in him where he some moves in the open field to dodge defenders and has good contact balance where he could shread tackles.  

 

Anyway my point is if they take Lance i presume they have a plan to use him in spots right away along with developing him.  I'd trust them on that front.  So I'd be good with taking him.  i got concerns about him but if they love him then i'd be jazzed based on that.   It's for me a trust issue.  Do I trust the powers that be?  Yes, I do. 

 

Edited December 4, 2020 by Skinsinparadise

[CapsSkins]

25 minutes ago, KDawg said:

I see so much of Josh Allen in Trey Lance. Who knows if that project pans out the same way... but they are so similar.

 

On the downside... in the NFL... Allen is a walking turnover. On the positive, he gives his team a chance in every game and at times elevates them to wins. 
 

If we could take Lance and we were told he’d be less turnover prone, same rushing ability, but also less big plays...

 

Would you pull the trigger in the top 10?

 

Top 20?

 

First round?

 

(“you” meaning everyone in this thread)

 

Yes and I'd sit him behind Alex for at least a year, if not two. Alex can drive the car while we groom our young guy. After throwing out youngsters who flame out without good support, I am down to let a guy cook while we have a guy with adequate ability but more importantly legendary intangibles in Alex. 

[mistertim]

21 minutes ago, KDawg said:

I see so much of Josh Allen in Trey Lance. Who knows if that project pans out the same way... but they are so similar.

 

On the downside... in the NFL... Allen is a walking turnover. On the positive, he gives his team a chance in every game and at times elevates them to wins. 
 

If we could take Lance and we were told he’d be less turnover prone, same rushing ability, but also less big plays...

 

Would you pull the trigger in the top 10?

 

Top 20?

 

First round?

 

(“you” meaning everyone in this thread)

 

Eh, I don't really see that comparison that much, to be honest. I don't think Lance's arm is anywhere near Allen's. And Lance is a guy who I somewhat see as a running back who can also play QB well.  That's how he runs too. Allen was a guy with plenty of mobility who tended to use it to evade pressure and make plays with his arm. He wasn't consistently hitting A gaps and lowering his shoulder into linebackers like Lance does.

 

I do think Lance has better accuracy and is less turnover prone, but he's also playing on a team in a weak conference where pretty much every game they're clearly the team with more talent in every aspect. Allen was playing on a crappier team vs better opponents and he was pressured constantly because his OL sucked. Lance rarely faced much of a pass rush.

 

I do like some things about Lance, but there are also things that really give me pause. One of them is whether this team and fanbase is going to be patient with him and let him develop. Because IMO he's going to require plenty of development. And I also question whether we're the right team for him. Because I believe a guy like that is a guy like Jackson who you may really have to recreate your entire offense around if you want him to truly be successful. I'm not sure we're a team that's going to be willing to do that. 

 

And I'm not sure I'd want us to do that. The Ravens got really lucky with Jackson. They completely recreated their offense around his particular skillset and it worked. But it could just as easily have not worked and basically set their team back 5 years. Just because it worked once doesn't mean it will automatically work again.

[PartyPosse]

2 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

Part of me doesn't want him to light it up.  I am intrigued enough with his skill set that I want him to fall.   My main concern with him is durability and does his style of play lend to turnovers in the NFL. 

He’s got Ty Detmer written all over him.

[Warhead36]

I just don't think we're in a position to draft a guy and have him sit for a year. This isn't Green Bay with Favre to Rodgers or Rodgers to Love. This isn't Kansas City where we have a prime and healthy Alex Smith to Mahomes.

[Skinsinparadise]

21 minutes ago, mistertim said:

 

Eh, I don't really see that comparison that much, to be honest. I don't think Lance's arm is anywhere near Allen's. And Lance is a guy who I somewhat see as a running back who can also play QB well.  That's how he runs too. Allen was a guy with plenty of mobility who tended to use it to evade pressure and make plays with his arm. He wasn't consistently hitting A gaps and lowering his shoulder into linebackers like Lance does.

 

 

I agree that Allen's arm is stronger.  He probably has the strongest arm in the NFL.  Lance does have a strong arm, somewhat like Kyler Murray/RG3, that flick of the wrist style. 

Lance is the faster and better runner than Allen.

 

But I get @KDawg's point.  Lance's two main attributes are arguably arm strength and mobility.  

 

I was listening to Brugler today who compared his upside to a bigger Kyler Murray.   He also said he heard there are executives that really have Lance graded highly.

 

I think Lance has a better arm and is a better passer than Lamar Jackson.  But i do think like with Jackson early on his career, i'd run a scheme that is very tied to his running skiils.   Lance has shown flashes of things he needs to improve on but i like the fact that supposedly he has a big time work ethic.

 

I noticed Brad Kelly is trying to sell Lance today on twitter and is putting up clips.  i don't always agree with Kelly but I've agreed with him on a bunch of players over the years including Terry McLaurin before the draft.  Kelly used to play WR so I associate him more with that spot than QBs typically.  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited December 4, 2020 by Skinsinparadise

[KDawg]

@Skinsinparadise got my point on the nose it seems. 
 

@mistertim saying he doesn’t have a strong arm is a really strange statement, in my opinion. Dude has a pretty live arm. It’s evident in every throw. He is NOT Josh Allen as far as arm strength goes. 
 

But his lack of arm strength (only in comparison to Allen, not in general) means less risky passes and less flashy plays. But their playing styles and their developmental curve are almost dead nuts with one another. 
 

His legs will buy him developmental time, assuming he can stay healthy. 
 

But size, developmentally, athletically and physically Allen and Lance are extremely similar as players.

 

Thats not to say Lance becomes Allen. He may not even be in his league. He could surpass him. But they are extremely similar as prospects.

12 minutes ago, Warhead36 said:

I just don't think we're in a position to draft a guy and have him sit for a year. This isn't Green Bay with Favre to Rodgers or Rodgers to Love. This isn't Kansas City where we have a prime and healthy Alex Smith to Mahomes.

Why don’t we have time to sit him?

 

Are we expecting to be 12-4 and a Super Bowl contender next year?

Edited December 4, 2020 by KDawg

[Skinsinparadise]

26 minutes ago, PartyPosse said:

He’s got Ty Detmer written all over him.

 

Same college but otherwise?

 

6 foot, 180 pounds with 8 inch hands?  Nope Lance isn't some small dude.

 

Detmer was a high risk turnover prone player in college -- that's not Lance.

 

By Detmer's own admission he was't super fast

 

Detmer taken in the 9th round back then, Lance probably going top 10 in the first.  

Edited December 4, 2020 by Skinsinparadise

[mistertim]

7 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

I agree that Allen's arm is stronger.  He probably has the strongest arm in the NFL.  Lance does have a strong arm, somewhat like Kyler Murray/RG3, that flick of the wrist style. 

Lance is the faster and better runner than Allen.

 

But I get @KDawg's point.  Lance's two main attributes are arguably arm strength and mobility.  

 

I was listening to Brugler today who compared his upside to a bigger Kyler Murray.   He also said he heard there are executives that really have Lance graded highly.

 

I think Lance has a better arm and is a better passer than Lamar Jackson.  But i do think like with Jackson early on his career, i'd run a scheme that is very tied to his running skiils.   Lance has shown flashes of things he needs to improve on but i like the fact that supposedly he has a big time work ethic.

 

I noticed Brad Kelly is trying to sell Lance today on twitter and is putting up clips.  i don't always agree with Kelly but I've agreed with him on a bunch of players over the years including Terry McLaurin before the draft.  Kelly used to play WR so I associate him more with that spot than QBs typically.  

 

 

 

"Bigger Kyler Murray" is actually closer to how I see Fields. To me Lance as a runner/scrambler is an interesting mix and not really like either Murray or Jackson. He's more powerful than Murray or Jackson but he's not as shifty as Murray and not as fast as Jackson; he looks like closer to a 4.5 guy than a 4.3 guy to me. 

 

He also has a (fun to watch but disturbing from a scouting perspective) propensity to try and run through people. He pretty consistently lowers his shoulder and tries to plow through defenders. That may work in the MVFC but it ain't going to fly against NFL linebackers. He's going to have to get coached up to not do that ****. 

 

1 minute ago, KDawg said:

@Skinsinparadise got my point on the nose it seems. 
 

@mistertim saying he doesn’t have a strong arm is a really strange statement, in my opinion. Dude has a pretty live arm. It’s evident in every throw. He is NOT Josh Allen as far as arm strength goes. 
 

But his lack of arm strength (only in comparison to Allen, not in general) means less risky passes and less flashy plays. But their playing styles and their developmental curve are almost dead nuts with one another. 
 

His legs will buy him developmental time, assuming he can stay healthy. 
 

But size, developmentally, athletically and physically Allen and Lance are extremely similar as players.

 

Thats not to say Lance becomes Allen. He may not even be in his league. He could surpass him. But they are extremely similar as prospects.

Why don’t we have time to sit him?

 

Are we expect it to be 12-4 and a Super Bowl contender next year?

 

I didn't say he didn't have a strong arm; he has a strong arm. IMO it just isn't elite level or really that close to Allen, who has an absolute howitzer. 

[KDawg]

2 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

Same college but otherwise?

 

6 foot, 180 pounds with 8 inch hands?  Nope Lance isn't some small dude.

 

Detmer was a high risk turnover prone player in college -- that's not Lance.

 

By Detmer's own admission he was't super fast

 

Detmer taken in the 9th round back then, Lance probably going top 10 in the first.  

I think he was comparing Detmer to Wilson... both BYU QBs

[Skinsinparadise]

6 minutes ago, KDawg said:

 

Why don’t we have time to sit him?

 

Are we expecting to be 12-4 and a Super Bowl contender next year?

 

Same here.  And as I mentioned he's also the perfect type of QB to bring in packages so you might have some immediate help from him too. 

 

I think Alex is the perfect teacher to groom a young QB especially one who supposedly is hungry to learn and put in the time.  Mahomes still talks about what Alex did to help him.

 

Mahomes was also a high ceiling, low floor guy.  Heck I recall bringing up Mahomes in a similar way that we are talking about Lance.    I never said then to draft Mahomes.  If i did i'd be crowing about it nonstop.    But I do recall a conversation similar to the one we are all having here.  And I mentioned Mahomes' raw upside but without pushing it and a regular poster at the time (I haven't seen him here though in a long time) said something like raw is an understatement and sort of made fun of the thought of drafting him.  And look I am not blaming him for not seeing it.  I didn't see it either.  Obviously most NFL teams didn't see it either.  But I've learned to take the high ceiling/low floor guys more seriously than in the past at the QB spot. 

 

 You got me if Lance is a superstar in the making.    But if they want to bet on his raw upside, I'll go on that ride. 

8 minutes ago, KDawg said:

I think he was comparing Detmer to Wilson... both BYU QBs

 

Yep brainfart moment I had both Wilson and Lance in my head. 😀   Yep Wilson is the BYU guy.  

[Skinsinparadise]

17 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

Same college but otherwise?

 

6 foot, 180 pounds with 8 inch hands?  Nope Lance isn't some small dude.

 

Detmer was a high risk turnover prone player in college -- that's not Lance.

 

By Detmer's own admission he was't super fast

 

Detmer taken in the 9th round back then, Lance probably going top 10 in the first.  

 

Lol brainfart in my head.  I have been on too much Wilson and Lance today that now they've merged into the same player.   yet those same points ironically apply IMO. 😀

 

Wilson is a bigger dude than Detmer

Wilson isn't nearly as turnover prone as Detmer at least not so this year

Wilson I think is faster than Detmer

Detmer taken in the 9th round back then, Wilson probably going top 10 in the first.  

 

Edited December 4, 2020 by Skinsinparadise

[PartyPosse]

1 hour ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

Lol brainfart in my head.  I have been on too much Wilson and Lance today that now they've merged into the same player.   yet those same points ironically apply IMO. 😀

 

Wilson is a bigger dude than Detmer

Wilson isn't nearly as turnover prone as Detmer at least not so this year

Wilson I think is faster than Detmer

Detmer taken in the 9th round back then, Wilson probably going top 10 in the first.  

 

I’m leery of any QB having success against that level of completion. It proves absolutely nothing to me and as talented as he may look, I would absolutely not risk a high one on a guy that hasn’t been able to show what he could do against legit competition. I’m not saying he wouldn’t shine but I also don’t think you can afford that kind of risk in the first, especially at the QB position. You’re basically surrendering three years minimum in the hopes he’s the guy. Again, he may be, but if he’s not and we draft him then we may as well just blow it up again.

[Est.1974]

1 minute ago, PartyPosse said:

 I also don’t think you can afford that kind of risk in the first, especially at the QB position. You’re basically surrendering three years minimum in the hopes he’s the guy. Again, he may be, but if he’s not and we draft him then we may as well just blow it up again.

if Smith is sticking around in 2021, this is exactly the risk we can afford to take. I’m all in for Lance personally, irrespective of risk.

[Skinsinparadise]

 

 

[Skinsinparadise]

They've done a better job, knock on wood as to avoiding injuries, wonder if with Ron they are more reluctant to draft players who might have injury concerns moving forward

 

 

 

[Skinsinparadise]

17 minutes ago, PartyPosse said:

I’m leery of any QB having success against that level of completion. It proves absolutely nothing to me and as talented as he may look, I would absolutely not risk a high one on a guy that hasn’t been able to show what he could do against legit competition. I’m not saying he wouldn’t shine but I also don’t think you can afford that kind of risk in the first, especially at the QB position. You’re basically surrendering three years minimum in the hopes he’s the guy. Again, he may be, but if he’s not and we draft him then we may as well just blow it up again.

 

I get your point.  I feel differently.  I am fixated on skill set first and foremost.  As an example, Zach Wilson could be playing with my kid in the backyard for all I care and if he can fling a 60 yard pass with velocity with accuracy to him versus seeing the same throw to Devonta Smith -- it still speaks to his arm strength.  It doesn't matter if he did it in my backyard or versus LSU.  

 

There are no perfect prospects obviously.  There are concerns about Zach and all these Qbs perhaps sans Lawrence but the scouts are paid to project.    Yeah I wouldn't ride on your opinion or my opinion on Zach Wilson.  We aren't experts and there is too much information about him that we aren't privy to.  But Kyle Smith and the scouts that work there are paid big bucks to figure this stuff out.  

 

[KDawg]

Before I can honestly decide if I think Lance is an acceptable risk, or even Wilson for that matter, I need to see how free agency shakes out. 
 

If most of our needs are at least attempted to be plugged, that reduces the need weight in a weighted BPA formula. And that sky rockets a guy like Lance.