What Offer Would Change Your Mind on Trading Down???

[cakmoney61]

22 hours ago, dyst said:

Why do people want all 3 from Miami in this years draft? If you are going to trade with them, its better to get #5 this year and their #1 in 2021 and 2022 instead.

Definitely food for thought.  OTOH, if the Redskins traded the #2 pick to Miami, along with #5, Miami's #26 or #39 must be a part of the package, because the Redskins could do some things with either of those picks.  They should use #26 in a trade down to get a pick in the second round.  With pick #39, they could draft a very good player at that spot (a TE maybe?) or trade down for more picks.  However they work it out, the Redskins must come away with a second-round pick this year if they trade with Miami.

 

If Miami asked me for my advice, I'd tell them to keep their picks and let Tua fall to them at #5 if they want him.  They could make a lesser trade offer with either Detroit or the Giants if they chose.  But I would still advise them to stand pat.  They could really improve their team with all those high draft picks in the first two rounds.

[wit33]

@Skinsinparadise

 

No love for CP and Santana?? Both had arguments for being top tier at their positions. 

[Koolblue13]

I guess the difference is the gap responsibilities. If you're going to assign someone to take on 2 blockers, so everyone else can attack gaps, Payne is the best choice. 

 

Allen, Payne are the starting interior for sure. I'd say that's the interior for long passing downs as well.

1 minute ago, wit33 said:

@Skinsinparadise

 

No love for CP and Santana?? Both had arguments for being top tier at their positions. 

Not even close. Portis is definitely closer, but he was no Faulk or James.

 

Moss was rarely the best WR in the division.

[KDawg]

6 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

 

My overall point is under Dan with the exception of Trent and Sean we've not done elite players.  So for us to disagree, it would mean you think that's a false narrative and that we've had our share of elite players during his tenure beyond that     If so sure, let's agree to disagree. 

 

We're talking specific to Payne right now. And we disagree on his potential level of play given better LB play and context. 

 

I don't think the Skins have had any glut of elite players. But I don't think all the guys in the league that are labeled as elite as actually elite either. 

 

I'd argue the only elite player we've had is Sean Taylor. But I do think our players are both underrated by our fanbase and overrated. I think Daron Payne is underrated based on schematics and surrounding talent. I think Ioannidis is underrated nationally. That's not to say they're elite or not. But I think they could be higher on a list of league wide DTs if the Skins were winning. Though I do think Payne could be truly special.

 

However, I can't necessarily argue my point because the proof isn't necessarily in the pudding.

 

It's like the people who think Haskins is definitely the guy. They have a gut feeling that can't be proven but they just see it that way. I think they're crazy. But I also think it's fair if people look at my Payne take and think I'm crazy (though, slightly less crazy than people absolutely sold on Haskins already). 

[Skinsinparadise]

48 minutes ago, mistertim said:

 

I'd actually add Dunbar in there as well, if he could stay healthy. Didn't PFF have him graded in the mid to high 80s before he was injured?

 

Yeah, good point,  Dunbar could be that good.  He needs to show he can stay healthy. 

 

My point is have we had elite players, national conversation type, the whole ball of wax.  The Drew Brees, Von Miller, J. Adams, V. Miller, K. Mack, E. Elliot, O. Beckham, A. Brown, J. Jones, M. Thomas types on and on.  The type of players that are seen as elite.  Dudes that are talked about around the NFL as the best of the best.

 

And I don't believe we've really had those guys with the exception of Trent and Sean.  PFF among other graders back up that point.   

 

Having said that, I am optimistic that we can finally break through that barrier.  We got some dudes that have that type of potential.  Talk about PFF scores, on some metrics Guice looked elite albeit on a short sample.  McLaurin to me has the makings of maybe being in the conversation with the Hopkins, J. Jones. types, etc.  It's part of the reason why I am optimistic about this roster.

 

I do think Young could help bring out the best of Sweat, Payne, Allen along with Del Rio's coaching. McLaurin might end up the first super star at Wr we've drafted since Art Monk.  If Guice stays healthy (granted a big if) I think he has top 5 RB potential.  And my thought isn't well here we go again with having elite players but lets see how it unfolds this time.  To me is if this comes together its a novel ride for this franchise as opposed to been there done that. 

[Skinsinparadise]

17 minutes ago, KDawg said:

 

We're talking specific to Payne right now. And we disagree on his potential level of play given better LB play and context. 

 

 

My point isn't about potential though.  I agree Payne has that kind of potential.

 

17 minutes ago, KDawg said:

 

 

I don't think the Skins have had any glut of elite players. But I don't think all the guys in the league that are labeled as elite as actually elite either. 

 

 

My point though wasn't about whether everyone afforded that status deserves it.  But many of them do.  Michael Thomas for example is considered a beast and is indeed a beast.  Quiet type of players like DeAndre Hopkins are still labeled elite whether they are flashy or not.  J. Adams is considered elite even though he plays for the lowly Jets. 

 

17 minutes ago, KDawg said:

 

I'd argue the only elite player we've had is Sean Taylor.

 

Since we agree on this point.  We actually agree on my aggregate point which is we've struggled finding the best of the best type players.  And it's not even hard to come up with systematic reasons for it. 

 

We drafted Laron Landry instead of Adrian Peterson.  We took Carols Rodgers instead of Demarcus Ware.  We took Ryan Kerrigan instead of JJ Watt.  Heck we traded down with Dallas of all teams so they can take Demarcus Lawrence and we took Trent Murphy.  We traded town with Seattle so they could take Tyler Lockett (who isn't elite but really really good) so we took Jamison Crowder.

 

Also other teams have found elite players outside the first round.  This last draft might have turned that tide finally with McLaurin.  Will see. 

 

17 minutes ago, KDawg said:

 

It's like the people who think Haskins is definitely the guy. They have a gut feeling that can't be proven but they just see it that way. I think they're crazy. But I also think it's fair if people look at my Payne take and think I'm crazy (though, slightly less crazy than people absolutely sold on Haskins already). 

 

I don't think your point on Haskins or Payne is crazy.  But we are arguing two different things.   Payne IMO has mega talent but I don't think he's been playing at an elite level.  I don't disagree that he could.  Sweat is another guy with mega talent.  Was he elite last year?  Nope.  Could he be?  Sure.  Any dude at his size who can run a 4.4 is insane.  Payne and Sweat have elite athleticism for their positions.   I genuinely do think that adding a dude like Young and improving the coaching could help elevate their games and hit that elite status.  

[KDawg]

Oh, I don’t think Payne has been playing at that level. But I think he is around that top tier level as a player. I’m likely doing poorly explaining it.

[Skinsinparadise]

Keim has a good summary there of my take.  My take is simple.  If you think Chase is elite.  Take him.  Only way I'd trade is if you think you still end up with a guy that is just a hair below.  So if they grade Chase for example as a 98 and see Simmons as a 95 and you can trade down and get multiple first round picks then pull the trigger. 

 

But I am not trading away from an elite player to add multiple good players.  That's somewhat my mantra on this thread.  We need a Sean Taylor type game changer.  I don't want 3 more Ryan Kerrigans as the next step.  We have enough good players.  It's good to have good players.  I am glad we got good players but IMO we need another dude or two who can take things to the next level. 

 

 

 

 

2 minutes ago, KDawg said:

Oh, I don’t think Payne has been playing at that level. But I think he is around that top tier level as a player. I’m likely doing poorly explaining it.

 

OK, I guess I am doing a bad job explaining too.  For me I am looking at birds in hand, elite player right now.  And my point really isn't centered just on now but Dan's whole tenure.  

 

But agree on the potential of some of the players including Payne.  As for pure young talent, this is my favorite roster in the last 20 years.  Haskins to me is the wild card.  I don't love keep hearing that there are concerns in the building about his work ethic. 

 

And I am fairly convinced Rivera's rhetoric as to Haskins is purposely designed to egg him on to grind this off season.  But if they get Haskins going, he could be the ticket.  But I have some pause about him like you do.  

[Skinsinparadise]

3 hours ago, wit33 said:

@Skinsinparadise

 

No love for CP and Santana?? Both had arguments for being top tier at their positions. 

 

Loved them while they were here.  But they weren't elite players.  Though I'll say in Redskins terms so to speak they were closer to elite than what we have been accustomed to. 

 

I do think though they were stars so to speak (not mega stars) so they did fit the national narrative as having dudes who are at least in the national conversation. I'd see a lot of people in the stands wearing Portis jerseys.  And Portis' antics brought him attention so I do think he in particular helped bring fans to the games. 

[wit33]

5 minutes ago, Koolblue13 said:

I guess the difference is the gap responsibilities. If you're going to assign someone to take on 2 blockers, so everyone else can attack gaps, Payne is the best choice. 

 

Allen, Payne are the starting interior for sure. I'd say that's the interior for long passing downs as well.

Not even close. Portis is definitely closer, but he was no Faulk or James.

 

Moss was rarely the best WR in the division.

Ahh... system, system... CP produced in a scheme built for the 80s. Those other two were in offenses way ahead of the curve with elite QBs. Just think  how dynamic he was with Shanny and their zone run scheme. CP was elite.  
 

Moss had one elite year.

[Koolblue13]

1 minute ago, wit33 said:

Ahh... system, system... CP produced in a scheme built for the 80s. Those other two were in offenses way ahead of the curve with elite QBs. Just think  how dynamic he was with Shanny and their zone run scheme. CP was elite.  
 

Moss had one elite year.

How many elite backs can there be in a year? 05 was probably Portis best year and he still wasn't Tomlinson, James, Alexander, Tiki?

 

He was better than Thomas Jones and maybe Priest and Stephen Jackson that year, but you also still had Bettis and Gore who we know are HoFer great backs.

 

Portis was really good. Great for us, especially during such an awesome RB decade, but elite? Maybe as a pass blocker, but not a RB.

 

05 was a career year for Moss also. That was a great year. Probably the last really enjoyable one all the way through for me.

[wit33]

27 minutes ago, Koolblue13 said:

How many elite backs can there be in a year? 05 was probably Portis best year and he still wasn't Tomlinson, James, Alexander, Tiki?

 

I like his Denver years as well to support him being elite, but I’ll concede that he was not at the level of Faulk or Tomlinson, but I’d group him with the others. 
 

27 minutes ago, Koolblue13 said:

Portis was really good. Great for us, especially during such an awesome RB decade, but elite? Maybe as a pass blocker, but not a RB.

Okay, maybe not elite, just a step below. I must say though, his situation didn’t help him and if he finished his rookie contract in Denver we might view him a bit different, but that’s fantasy land lol. 
 

27 minutes ago, Koolblue13 said:

 

05 was a career year for Moss also. That was a great year. Probably the last really enjoyable one all the way through for me.

 

Moss was All Pro this year. An enjoyable year for sure. 

[mistertim]

1 hour ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

Since we agree on this point.  We actually agree on my aggregate point which is we've struggled finding the best of the best type players.  And it's not even hard to come up with systematic reasons for it. 

 

We drafted Laron Landry instead of Adrian Peterson.  We took Carols Rodgers instead of Demarcus Ware.  We took Ryan Kerrigan instead of JJ Watt.  Heck we traded down with Dallas of all teams so they can take Demarcus Lawrence and we took Trent Murphy.  We traded town with Seattle so they could take Tyler Lockett (who isn't elite but really really good) so we took Jamison Crowder.

 

 

It really is amazing how we've managed to consistently pass on guys who ended up being elite for guys who ended up being good, whether by just not picking them or taking ourselves out of the running by trading down. Are we just unlucky or have we simply had **** scouting until more recently?

[KDawg]

1 minute ago, mistertim said:

 

It really is amazing how we've managed to consistently pass on guys who ended up being elite for guys who ended up being good, whether by just not picking them or taking ourselves out of the running by trading down. Are we just unlucky or have we simply had **** scouting until more recently?

 

So this gets kind of back to my point: I don't think we've missed on guys any more than anyone else has. I think our team has put a damper on a lot of our picks. I'm not sold that a guy like Derwin James is the same Derwin James under Manusky, for example. And I'm not sure Allen or Payne aren't viewed in a much better light in a different situation. 

[wit33]

1 hour ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

Loved them while they were here.  But they weren't elite players.  Though I'll say in Redskins terms so to speak they were closer to elite than what we have been accustomed to. 
 

 

Consider both elite talents who experienced great stats (Moss 1 season as an All Pro), but I factor in the variable of the offense they played in. Portis’ stats were elite in Denver if one were to value his average per carry. 

 

I hear ya though...
 

 

 

[Koolblue13]

1 hour ago, wit33 said:

 

I like his Denver years as well to support him being elite, but I’ll concede that he was not at the level of Faulk or Tomlinson, but I’d group him with the others. 
 

Okay, maybe not elite, just a step below. I must say though, his situation didn’t help him and if he finished his rookie contract in Denver we might view him a bit different, but that’s fantasy land lol. 
 

 

Moss was All Pro this year. An enjoyable year for sure. 

Sure, a system that had Tatum Bell over 1,000 while spitting carries, before going to Denver and being forgotten about. That says a lot more about the system than the player.

[wit33]

3 minutes ago, Koolblue13 said:

Sure, a system that had Tatum Bell over 1,000 while spitting carries, before going to Denver and being forgotten about. That says a lot more about the system than the player.

 

No doubt system matters and/or having an elite QB, but great talents take the system to another level. I’d encourage you to compare numbers of CP and Bell a bit closer, there’s a wide margin of productivity in all metrics, IMO. 
 

If CP were drafted by the Colts he’d be in shoes of Edgerrin James this year. 

[Koolblue13]

1 minute ago, wit33 said:

 

No doubt system matters and/or having an elite QB, but great talents take the system to another level. I’d encourage you to compare numbers of CP and Bell a bit closer, there’s a wide margin of productivity in all metrics, IMO. 
 

If CP were drafted by the Colts he’d be in shoes of Edgerrin James this year. 

The reason the production was better for Portis, is he wasn't splitting carries. They were a few yards shy of having 2 1,000 yard backs after trading Portis. 

 

Portis may have been an elite back. He wasn't. He was really good.

[Skinsinparadise]

1 hour ago, mistertim said:

 

It really is amazing how we've managed to consistently pass on guys who ended up being elite for guys who ended up being good, whether by just not picking them or taking ourselves out of the running by trading down. Are we just unlucky or have we simply had **** scouting until more recently?

 

I genuinely think we've had a philosophy of "more" is better than grabbing the best -- coupled with drafting to need.

 

I recall Gibbs back in the day telegraphed in advance that they needed a corner so top 10 they were looking at the corners. Dermarcus Ware went some picks later.  He was a great player but heck we need a corner more.  I recall them talking about why they traded up for Rocky Mcintosh and that was because they really really needed a weakside LB. 

 

When Doug explained why the balance was swung to Daron Payne (over I presume Derwin James) when there was some dissension he said the argument was they needed a DT.  

 

I forgot which insider said it but one did say the Redskins liked Demarcus Lawrence, too.  but also liked Trent Murphy almost as much so when the Cowboys came knocking they gladly traded down with their rivals.

 

With Seattle they traded down so they can get Lockett so we can get Crowder.

 

The idea that Kerrigan plus Jarvis Jenkins > just JJ Watt.

 

When Jay hyped up why the passed over Calais Campbell in FA over getting TWO defensive tackles even cheaper than just one guy.

 

I don't know if every narrative is correct but it doesn't take a genius to paint the picture that the dude running the ship (Bruce?) believed in multiple good players beat a great one.   And I am not even saying they were always wrong on that front.  But at some point, you got to shoot higher.  It would be one thing if this roster was just pure crap.  If it were, I'd get the multiple good players beat a great player.   But if you already have plenty of "good" players.  Go get some elite talent to elevate everyone. 

[mistertim]

1 hour ago, KDawg said:

 

So this gets kind of back to my point: I don't think we've missed on guys any more than anyone else has. I think our team has put a damper on a lot of our picks. I'm not sold that a guy like Derwin James is the same Derwin James under Manusky, for example. And I'm not sure Allen or Payne aren't viewed in a much better light in a different situation. 

 

I think it's likely a combination and depends on the player and the system. Would another system turn Kerrigan into an elite edge rusher? Probably not. He'd probably be what is always has been...very good but not necessarily upper echelon. I don't think he'd go to another team and suddenly be a dude that has to be game planned around. On the other hand I think it would be pretty difficult to **** up with a guy like JJ Watt who we passed on to trade down and take Kerrigan. He's such a force that IMO no matter where he went, he would have been elite (though I do suspect that a more conservative coach might not have him with a 20 sack season if he was doing a ton of 2 gap space eating). 

 

But James is different since he requires a creative and flexible DC to truly unleash his potential. So there I'd agree that it would depends on where he went and how he was used. Manusky probably would have stuck him in one position, told him to do one thing, and he'd end up being good at it but not the guy he is now. 

 

Payne and Allen I think it's hard to say. I think they'd certainly be better in a situation with a better DC but I'm still not sure they'd end up All-Pro level. Though I think Payne perhaps has the potential. 

[sportjunkie07]

If I’m the Dolphins I’m taking my chances on tua or the Oregon qb at 5 and upgrading my roster with the other 2 first rounders.

 

they are the only team with the draft capital that would make me bite on a chase young trade down.

 

tldr: I’m not trading down

[wit33]

1 hour ago, Koolblue13 said:

The reason the production was better for Portis, is he wasn't splitting carries. They were a few yards shy of having 2 1,000 yard backs after trading Portis. 

 

Portis may have been an elite back. He wasn't. He was really good.

Were the two Denver seasons elite? 
 

Also, he has all the elite traits of a RB and 4.3 speed. I get it though, his career as a whole wasn’t elite. 
 

 

[mistertim]

3 hours ago, sportjunkie07 said:

If I’m the Dolphins I’m taking my chances on tua or the Oregon qb at 5 and upgrading my roster with the other 2 first rounders.

 

they are the only team with the draft capital that would make me bite on a chase young trade down.

 

tldr: I’m not trading down

 

I would honestly be pretty shocked if the Dolphins gave up the draft haul they spent some time acquiring in order to trade up to #2 for a QB who is still rehabbing from a major injury, also has a prior injury history, and would likely fall to them anyway at #5. I agree...if they really believe in Tua's recovery or really like Herbert, they can sit at 5 and probably get either one. 

[hatchetwound]

Dear Mr. Snyder:  This is just a thought exercise, I am not suggesting we do this.

 

 

So I was thinking, while it would be nice getting someone like Young to add to our already talented DLine, are we putting our eggs in one basket here?  in 2013 Dion Jordan was a cant miss, blue chip, you take that guy prospect.  While still in the league has has not produced at the expected level.... only 10.5 sacks on his career.  We have quite a few holes to fill, and maybe it makes sense to take a shot gun approach.  Trade down a few times AND trade for a player.  

 

Some teams are rebuilding and have a ton of draft capital.  The Raiders have 2 first round picks.  The Dolphins have 3.  What if we traded down with one of them and picked up a second (to replace ours that we lost) and a 4th?

 

THEN we address the TE position.  This could go one of two ways:

1) Get a decent TE from a team desperate to shed cap space.  I'm looking at the Vikings.  What if we Swapped 1sts, took Rudolph AND Everson Griffen.  He is a 13 million dollar charge to their cap and as I deailed before, they are 10 million over on their effective cap space.  Its like sneaking in the Brock Oswiler trade into a deal for a TE, giving them relief while giving us another quality player on the line.  If we do this, we still have a first round pick, although later, an additional 2nd, an additional 4th AND Griffen.

2) Trade the pick to a TE heavy team looking to get younger.  I hate to say it, but this fits the Eagles to a T.  They have two really, really good TEs.  But their team is old and their GM i sunder fire to get younger.  What if we then trade that pick for Zach Ertz?  And you know what, I hope they say no, and then we say "ok, what about Dallas Gotert?"  He's young, hes on his rookie deal, and last year he finished 9th in receptions, 10th in yards and 7th in TDs among all TEs.   He could be a stud as the #1 TE and Philly would like it because they would see it like turning a 2nd round pick into a first round pick!!  If we do this we then have Dallas Gotert, a 2nd and a 3rd.

 

 

Young could be a HOF player.  Or he could be Dion Jordan.  Honestly, we should pull the trigger on him but if we don't, we really could fill out our team as I showed above.

[wit33]

@hatchetwound

 

I get that there’s evidence in the past a can’t miss prospect can miss, but Young literally checks every box. The Dion Jordan comparison isn’t good, due to Jordan coming in as a tweener.  Young will come in the NFL a man and freak amongst guys in the NFL. He’s just different.