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BBC: China pneumonia outbreak: COVID-19 Global Pandemic


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39 minutes ago, twa said:

 

More evidence in our direction#COVID19 is not the pandemic they sold you!

 

More veidence that twa likes to post things that actually say exactly the opposite of what he wants you to read.  

 

From the linked article.  

 

Quote

 

The Navy’s testing of the entire 4,800-member crew of the aircraft carrier - which is about 94% complete - was an extraordinary move in a headline-grabbing case that has already led to the firing of the carrier’s captain and the resignation of the Navy’s top civilian official.

 

Roughly 60 percent of the over 600 sailors who tested positive so far have not shown symptoms of COVID-19, the potentially lethal respiratory disease caused by the coronavirus, the Navy says. The service did not speculate about how many might later develop symptoms or remain asymptomatic.

 

 

I recommend reading the whole thing.  I know it's dangerous to take things like this, and try to extrapolate it to society at large.  (For one thing, pretty sure the distribution of age, gender, and overall health do not reflect society at large.)  

 

But it's the only case I know of where we've had testing of an entire, isolated, population.  

 

What I see is:  

 

Total population:  4,800.  

Positive: 600.  (12.5%)  Note:  This is how many are currently infected.  Unknown how many of the negatives are "recovered", and how many are "haven't had it yet."  

Symptome:  240 (40% of 600.  (5% of population)

Asymptomatic "spreaders":  360.  (7.5% of population).  

 

And also note:  The impression I get is that this is after the virus has passed through the crew.  Was this "after the peak"?  

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the average age in that situation is rather unique, as is the crowding.

 

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Asymptomatic "spreaders":  360.  (7.5% of population).

  

I look forward to more info on how contagious this subgroup is.

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2 minutes ago, twa said:

he average age in that situation is rather unique, as is the crowding.

 

Good point, which I was just coming back to post.  

 

This "data point" also represents a population with no distancing.  One which I'm pretty sure has been forced into close contact with each other, 24-7, I assume for a couple months.  

 

So again - beware extrapolating this samply to the population at large.  But as far as I know, it's the only data point of an entire population that we've got.  

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7 minutes ago, Larry said:

Couple random thoughts on Boeng:  

 

1)  We planning on doing social distancing in a factory?  

 

2)  Yeah, I bet the airline industry is yelling "We really need more planes" right now.  


I suppose there is the freight and military businesses which may not be as impacted. There’s also the need to prevent the employee skill base and that of the supply chain being lost. 
 

The Department of Defense knows that you have to provide a stream of business to the defense industrial base, otherwise when you try to place an order in a few years down the road there won’t be a domestic supplier able to deliver.

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