The Official ES 2020 Free Agency Thread /Tracker... Kendall Fuller,OG Schweitzer, KP Louis, Thomas Davis, McKissic, TE Logan Thomas, OT Lucas, QB Kyle Allen (trd 5th Rd pick), RB P. Barber, LB Davis, Ronald Darby

[JSSkinz]

1 minute ago, KDawg said:

Now add the Stafford contract, which is what we’ve been talking about. Leaves us with 22-30M left for FA and rookies. 
 

Again, my argument isn’t that we don’t have space. It’s that we don’t have space to resign the guys we need AND add Stafford AND lose a first

I agree its tighter than many think but if you get a chance to grab a guy like him you might do your best to get it done.

 

I wouldnt look at Staffords current contract, there's no way he comes here with only 2 years left on his deal so that deal gets reworked and the cap space gets reshuffled.

 

 

[KDawg]

1 minute ago, JSSkinz said:

I agree its tighter than many think but if you get a chance to grab a guy like him you might do your best to get it done.

 

I wouldnt look at Staffords current contract, there's no way he comes here with only 2 years left on his deal so that deal gets reworked and the cap space gets reshuffled.

 

 

Which could really make it worse, too.

[JSSkinz]

Just now, KDawg said:

Which could really make it worse, too.

Then you just walk away, we can use cash to ease the cap pain but if he wants Kirk Cousins money then yeah, its never happening.

 

I don't think the team wants older players in general based on what Ron has said but QB is an outlier, especially if you think you are in a window of opportunity.

[KDawg]

6 minutes ago, JSSkinz said:

Then you just walk away, we can use cash to ease the cap pain but if he wants Kirk Cousins money then yeah, its never happening.

 

I don't think the team wants older players in general based on what Ron has said but QB is an outlier, especially if you think you are in a window of opportunity.

And we’ve circled around to my total reason for not wanting Stafford.

[Est.1974]

33 minutes ago, KDawg said:

I get that, but we still have Scherff, Darby, Roullier (30M), rookies (10M) and 12-15 roster spots. That leaves us with 17M.

those numbers are too high. If we have Scherff, Darby and Roullier long term extensions the 2021 cap hit is more likely to be 15-20m, not 30m.

 

I also think it would be a given that any team that trades for Stafford would have to give him a new deal. Without question, he would be traded and given a new multi year deal. That would also reduce his cap number in 2021.

 

Not advocating those moves at all, but the cap hits in 2021 are being over estimated in here.

[KDawg]

2 minutes ago, UK SKINS FAN 74 said:

those numbers are too high. If we have Scherff, Darby and Roullier long term extensions the 2021 cap hit is more likely to be 15-20m, not 30m.

 

I also think it would be a given that any team that trades for Stafford would have to give him a new deal. Without question, he would be traded and given a new multi year deal. That would also reduce his cap number in 2021.

 

Not advocating those moves at all, but the cap hits in 2021 are being over estimated in here.

They wouldn’t be extensions. They’d be new contracts. Scherff market value is roughly 11, he’ll want 15.

 

Roullier is about 10 aav.

 

Darby will be 10-12.

 

I forgot to factor Allen into the equation as well, which will be 9.5

[JSSkinz]

If Darby wants CB1 money he can take a hike, we could use a true CB1, we don't have one right now IMO.

[KDawg]

5 minutes ago, JSSkinz said:

If Darby wants CB1 money he can take a hike, we could use a true CB1, we don't have one right now IMO.

I think we’d have to pass on him, for sure.

[skinny21]

22 minutes ago, KDawg said:

And we’ve circled around to my total reason for not wanting Stafford.

Yeah, to be honest, what appeals to me about Stafford is that 1) it’s a serious chance to have a contender for two years, 2) by the time the two years are up, we can put that money towards our young guys - keep the band together and the window open - and 3) he buys us a couple years to try to find/groom a (hopefully young/cheap) qb.  If we’re planning on extending him, I’m a lot less on board... pending some serious financial wizardry.  Of course, trading away a 1st, or whatever it would take to get him for a qb rental is fairly steep.  I’m also not convinced Detroit even ‘settles’ for a 1st.

 

Probably the better allocation of resources is to either take a qb if we like one in the 1st/2nd (long shot), or to try to trade back for 2022 picks to then trade up for a qb (in 2022) and meanwhile keep the qbs we have.  Spend on an ILB and receiver.

 

 

Looking at these numbers, it saddens me that I doubt we bring back Kerrigan.  I don’t like to let sentimentality bleed into our roster/financial decisions, but he’s been such a great dude, a very good player, is a nice rotational guy and we could very likely get a very fair deal.  Alas...

[Est.1974]

17 minutes ago, KDawg said:

They wouldn’t be extensions. They’d be new contracts. Scherff market value is roughly 11, he’ll want 15.

 

Roullier is about 10 aav.

 

Darby will be 10-12.

 

I forgot to factor Allen into the equation as well, which will be 9.5

Yeah that is the yearly average value of contact, but not what their 2021 cap hit would be.

 

I posted the other day, Norwell got 5 year 67mil. First year cap hit 5mil. Zak Martin was about 6 year 84mil deal, first year cap hit 6m.

 

Even the Landon Collins deal, 80mil, first year cap hit 4mil.

 

So if you are talking specifically about our 2021 cap position, you are vastly overstating your position.

 

The only way we will struggle against the cap is if we are giving out short 1-2 year deals.

 

 

 

[KDawg]

Just now, UK SKINS FAN 74 said:

Yeah that is the yearly average value of contact, but not what their 2021 cap hit would be.

 

I posted the other day, Norwell got 5 year 67mil. First year cap hit 5mil. Zak Martin was about 6 year 84mil deal, first year cap hit 6m.

 

Even the Landon Collins deal, 80mil, first year cap hit 4mil.

 

So if you are talking specifically about our 2021 cap position, you are vastly overstating your position.

 

The only way we will struggle against the cap is if we are giving out short 1-2 year deals.

 

 

 

 

*sigh*

 

You guys really need to follow my statements here or this whole thing comes off the rails.

 

I am NOT just talking about 2021. I am talking long term and cap ramifications.

 

We defer cap hits in the first year of contract. Awesome. Now what happens when Allen comes due? McLaurin? We are pushing contracts out into their contract windows? It makes no sense whatsoever to go after Stafford in my eyes. Zero. None. Nada.

 

I'm at the point where nothing anyone says could sway me on it beyond some things that don't appear to be realistic. 

[KDawg]

I wonder if bringing in a GM isn't necessarily a bad thing for Kyle.

 

The new GM:

-Takes over non-football aspects of the job from Rivera/whoever does it now

-Kyle gets a raise and is in charge of pro and college scouting and player acquisition

-New GM guides Kyle on learning the non-football part of the job and serves as a tie breaker to Ron and Kyle 

-Oversees the entirety of the situation to ensure the best possible product is in place for Washington

 

I wouldn't be against that. Plus if the guy has a solid track record their personnel takes would be more than welcome.

 

If the new GM is brought in to replace Kyle I think I have more of an issue with it. 

[Est.1974]

Just now, KDawg said:

 

*sigh*

 

You guys really need to follow my statements here or this whole thing comes off the rails.

 

I am NOT just talking about 2021. I am talking long term and cap ramifications.

 

We defer cap hits in the first year of contract. Awesome. Now what happens when Allen comes due? McLaurin? We are pushing contracts out into their contract windows? It makes no sense whatsoever to go after Stafford in my eyes. Zero. None. Nada.

 

I'm at the point where nothing anyone says could sway me on it beyond some things that don't appear to be realistic. 

Contracts rarely see out their duration, They have get-out years, get restructured, extended, or whatever. We will get 25-30mil back in future cap space without Smith and Collins here in 2022 say. If you want to look at the long term cap ramifications, there are plenty of +/- to take into account. 
 

We are top have a dozen in the league in cap space. We have few onerous contracts to worry about. In fact, we are in great salary cap position.

 

You are over complicating matters to support your position.

 

I do however prefer our future starting QB to be on a rookie contract. But we can accommodate a veteran contract likes Stafford IMO whilst addressing other needs associated with free agency and existing player retention. 
 

For what it’s worth, I could see players like Sweat and Young being here longer term, whereas your tackles get recycled earlier to keep the unit fresh. Plenty of variables.

[KDawg]

3 minutes ago, UK SKINS FAN 74 said:

Contracts rarely see out their duration, They have get-out years, get restructured, extended, or whatever. We will get 25-30mil back in future cap space without Smith and Collins here in 2022 say. If you want to look at the long term cap ramifications, there are plenty of +/- to take into account. 
 

We are top have a dozen in the league in cap space. We have few onerous contracts to worry about. In fact, we are in great salary cap position.

 

You are over complicating matters to support your position.

 

I do however prefer our future starting QB to be on a rookie contract. But we can accommodate a veteran contract likes Stafford IMO whilst addressing other needs associated with free agency and existing player retention. 
 

For what it’s worth, I could see players like Sweat and Young being here longer term, whereas your tackles get recycled earlier to keep the unit fresh. Plenty of variables.

I think you’re undercomplicating so looks like we’ll agree to disagree.

[JSSkinz]

21 minutes ago, KDawg said:

I am NOT just talking about 2021. I am talking long term and cap ramifications.

Once again I'm not completely disagreeing with you, I'm fiscally conservative by nature BUT with the vaccine out I think there's a good chance revenues are back to normal in 2021 which means a healthy jump in the 2022 salary cap.

 

Once the financials are back in line the cap will go up quite a bit, just a matter of when.

[skinny21]

25 minutes ago, KDawg said:

 

*sigh*

 

You guys really need to follow my statements here or this whole thing comes off the rails.

 

I am NOT just talking about 2021. I am talking long term and cap ramifications.

 

We defer cap hits in the first year of contract. Awesome. Now what happens when Allen comes due? McLaurin? We are pushing contracts out into their contract windows? It makes no sense whatsoever to go after Stafford in my eyes. Zero. None. Nada.

 

I'm at the point where nothing anyone says could sway me on it beyond some things that don't appear to be realistic. 

I hope the FO is looking at the long term (specifically in terms of re-upping the young guys).  If they think they can swing Stafford, bringing back key guys and re-signing our dline down the road, great.  Maybe I don’t see it as quite as unrealistic as you do, but I have my doubts it is doable.

 

Edit:  Honestly, probably my biggest doubt hinges on the compensation we’d have to give up to get Stafford.  I could probably live with a 1st (pick 20 or whatever), but I’m expecting Detroit will want more given Stafford’s ability and relatively friendly contract (not to mention the money they’d have to cover in a trade).

 

I do think that re-signing our key guys, adding a capable ILB, and addressing receiver/oline (combo of FA and draft) is 1) doable and 2) even with the qbs we have, gives us a chance to be legit contenders.  If Smith retires, I have less faith, but a beefed up D and ground game (and maybe receiving corp) takes a lot of pressure off the qb.

[Est.1974]

Put it this way, we aren’t going to have all 4 d-line players here on 100mil deals. With or without cap implications, that’s simply not how teams allocate resource. 
 

We’ll bring in a WR on a free agent contact in 2021 which will then dovetail into when Terry Mc needs paying. Then in year 2 of his Terry’s deal when the cap hit becomes significant, this FA from 2021 will either be gone or on a new deal.

 

All this worrying and we might have 80-90mil in space. Yikes.
 

 

7 minutes ago, JSSkinz said:

Once again I'm not completely disagreeing with you, I'm fiscally conservative by nature BUT with the vaccine out I think there's a good chance revenues are back to normal in 2021 which means a healthy jump in the 2022 salary cap.

 

Once the financials are back in line the cap will go up quite a bit, just a matter of when.

Yeah that’s the key influence, future revenue levels resulting from COVID.

[CommDownMan]

https://overthecap.com/salary-cap-space/

This says ~48 mill (assuming a base cap of 176 million)

 

I did an exercise (that got really long) and the TLDR version is this...

 

https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-2021-free-agency-ranking-the-nfls-top-50-free-agents

Used the above numbers because they probably had more input then myself.

Scherff 4yr / 60 mill (Year 1 8.75mill)

Chase R 4yr / 36 mill (Year 1 6.5mill)

Jayon Brown 4yr / 52 mill (I went higher to pull him away - Year 1 9 mill)

Juju or Corey Davis 4yr / 68 mill (Year one 12 mill)

 

That would eat 36.25 of 49 mill space. (~13 mill left)

 

If the cap is 195, about 33 mill left.

 

Jonathan Allen could also be signed this year and his current hit is 10 mill next year.  They could probably do a 4 year deal and have a cap hit in the $10 mill range year 1 (give or take a few million).

Javon Hargrave (3 yr / 39 mill) and DeForest Buckner (4 yr / 84 mill), Leonard Williams projection 4yr / 72 mill above.  Big range here and I see Allen close to Williams, but under contract this year a bonus (adding 15 mill right away) and a slight hometown boost (actually having grown up here) with said bonus frontage, I'm thinking maybe 4yr /64mill (Say 15 mill SB, 8, 12, 14, 15) Which would be 11.75 year 1 (basically adding 2 mill to cap for 2021).  IDK here, I really struggle to put contracts to DL.  But I think the 16mill per year is reasonable.  Without cap boost, minus rookies (say 6 mill), only about 5 mill left.

 

Then they'd have to decide on Darby, Kerrigan, KPL and that would likely be determined more on the 5 vs 25 remaining cap.  Big difference obviously.

 

[Est.1974]

The key, if required, is being good enough in your evaluation to find the 2021 version of Darby on a 4mil deal. And the 2021 Schweitzer or similar on that 3 year 13m deal. Or being able to let someone else give Flowers 10m p/y. And choosing Thomas instead of being held to ransom over Hooper. And being comfortable plugging in your mid round centre just like we did with Roullier.

 

And then drafting the next Curl, or Moreland, day 3 contributions. 
 

So many moving parts. 

[Cooleyfan1993]

We signed LB mychal kendricks from Seattle’s practice squad 

[skinny21]

1 hour ago, UK SKINS FAN 74 said:

The key, if required, is being good enough in your evaluation to find the 2021 version of Darby on a 4mil deal. And the 2021 Schweitzer or similar on that 3 year 13m deal. Or being able to let someone else give Flowers 10m p/y. And choosing Thomas instead of being held to ransom over Hooper. And being comfortable plugging in your mid round centre just like we did with Roullier.

 

And then drafting the next Curl, or Moreland, day 3 contributions. 
 

So many moving parts. 

Yep, and the qb as the lynchpin.  No idea what route we’ll go there.  Unless Smith returns, I’m assuming we use some draft capital on the spot (and I wouldn’t be surprised to see Allen, or even Haskins starting).

 

In no particular order, I’d like to see

 

A starting caliber LT - probably Lucas (or a vet like him), maybe an early pick, and Charles competing.  Maybe I’m nitpicking here, but I want a tackle that allows us to run rb screens - we’ve been absolutely atrocious on this front and it would be a major boost to the O.

 

An ILB - this one is the key to our D. 

 

FS - bring back Reeves and have him compete with a draftee (would make an offer to Everett... maybe).

 

Receiver - I’m less... antsy about this spot than most I think.  Without much help, McLaurin is still getting his, and Thomas and McKissic/Gibson are picking up a lot of the slack.  Would love to add an outside guy and a slot receiver, I just put the priority on getting guys re-signed, making sure our oline is solid (including depth), and getting that ILB or 2 to really solidify the front 7.

 

Starting caliber corner.  I’d like to bring back Darby, but I think a mid tier corner competing with a draftee makes more sense financially.

 

Guard/Center - this one’s tricky with Scherff and Roullier as FAs.  Ismael, Charles and Martin haven’t proven anything.  I think I re-sign both and look to the draft for more depth.

 

Bottom line, we need an answer at qb, LT and ILB to really improve as a team.  The rest (beyond our re-signings) I think we can cobble together between the draft, UDFA, and who we have on the roster currently.  We’ll certainly add some cheaper FAs too - like we did with KPL, Darby, Bostic, Sweitzer, etc.

 

[JamesMadisonSkins]

I know we are kind of "over" the idea of drafting a guy to be the #2 to Terry and just getting a more sure-fire thing. But I do think the draft is deep, and we have enough candidates to be WR3-5 on this team. I wonder if it's more prudent to get someone in R2 at WR v. signing (insert top FA WR) for $18-20m per year, especially considering we will have to do the same for Terry in a couple of years. I would love to draft players at the expensive position at lower cap $$ and go spend our $$ more prudently, but I also understand everyone in FA is overpaid and there aren't enough draft picks to fill all the holes.

 

I don't know how Reddick would fit in this defense but I loved him coming out and he seems to be absolutely destroying people this year. Probably in for a big payday, but if he is a schematic fit I would love to have the LB and LT positions filled in FA (Reddick and Moton) while re-signing Scherff and maybe Darby. Go into the draft with the BPA mindset but also knowing you have to get yourself a WR playmaker at a QB in the first 2-3 rounds.

[Skinsinparadise]

 

Ledyard is one of the smarter draft geek types IMO and is now covering Tampa as a reporter type.  Clearly he's high on Lavonte David

 

 

 

 

 

[Skinsinparadise]

is he over his injury bug though?  I notice PFF loves him

 

 

 

[Skinsinparadise]

12 hours ago, JSSkinz said:

I agree its tighter than many think but if you get a chance to grab a guy like him you might do your best to get it done.

 

I wouldnt look at Staffords current contract, there's no way he comes here with only 2 years left on his deal so that deal gets reworked and the cap space gets reshuffled.

 

 

 

The cap hit right from the jump is fairly friendly.  Cap rate in 2021 is ironically just about identical to bringing back Alex next year.  And contracts are rarely front loaded cap wise but back loaded especially in a restructure.  So even if he gets a new deal-extension it likely isn't cap prohibitive.  Also, Stafford wouldn't be traded because he's unhappy with his contract.  Some trades are orchestrated for that reason but in this case that wouldn't be the driving force.  So I think there is a chance that Stafford wouldn't per se go crazy with demands.  Technically he'd have no choice to play out the contract as is if the FO wanted to play hardball.   

 

There was talk for example when the Browns traded for Beckham that he wanted them to rip up his contract and get a new one.  But that never happened.  I am not saying Stafford doesn't get an extension but its not a given and if it happens its likely cap friendly early on. 

 

https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-realistic-trade-value-and-landing-spots-for-veteran-qbs-stafford-garoppolo-carr-ryan-wentz

 

Stafford has two years remaining on his contract, with a $20 million cap charge in 2021 and a $22.5 in 2022 for an acquiring team. These are very team-friendly terms for anyone looking to trade for Stafford.