The State of the Economy Thread - “Falling inflation, rising growth give U.S. the world’s best recovery”

[China]

Rent Prices Are Starting to Cool Down: The 5 Cities With the Most Significant Decreases

 

Summer is a notoriously busy moving season — and high rent prices often reflect that.

 

But prices seem to be cooling a little compared to the last 12 months overall. Median rent prices for one-bedroom apartments are only up 0.5% month over month, and prices for two-bedrooms are down 2.9% as of June, according to the National Rent Report for June 2022 from Zumper, a hub for people to find houses, apartments, rooms and condos for rent.

Although median rent overall rose slightly for one-bedroom apartments, many cities saw significant decreases between May and June. Tallahassee, Florida, had the biggest drop at approximately 6.5%, followed by Anchorage, Alaska, at 6%. 

 

Here are the top five cities with the biggest decreases in rent as of June 2022, according to Zumper.

 

1. Tallahassee, Florida

Month-over-month change in price: -6.5%

Year-over-year change in price: 7.5%

 

2. Anchorage, Alaska
Month-over-month change in price: -6.2%

Year-over-year change in price: 8.2%

 

3. Urban Honolulu
Month-over-month change in price: -6.1%

Year-over-year change in price: 3.4%

 

4. San Diego
Month-over-month change in price: -6.1%

Year-over-year change in price: 20.8%

 

5. Syracuse, New York
Month-over-month change in price: -6.1%

Year-over-year change in price: 8.1%

 

Click on the link for the full article

[China]

Oil drops below $100 a barrel for first time since early May

 

For the first time in nearly two months, crude oil prices have fallen below $100 a barrel, reflecting investors' growing concerns about a US recession that could crimp demand for oil.

The price of West Texas Intermediate crude tumbled as much as 10% Tuesday, to hit a low of $97.43 before closing at $99.50, down 8% on the day. Brent crude oil was down by more than 10% when it hit a low for the day of $101.10 a barrel, before settling at $102.77 at the close.

It's the first time that WTI has been below $100 since May 11. That was also the last time Brent, which typically trades a bit higher, was below $102 a barrel. Brent has not been below $100 since April 25.

Wholesale gas futures fell as well, down almost 10% for the day at the close, or 36 cents a gallon.

The national average cost of a gallon of gas at the pump is now $4.80, according to the latest AAA reading, down one penny from Monday and 8 cents from a week ago. Gas prices crossed the $5 mark for the first time on June 11 and hit a peak of $5.02 a gallon on June 14.

 

Click on the link for the full article

[CousinsCowgirl84]

12 minutes ago, China said:

Oil drops below $100 a barrel for first time since early May

 

For the first time in nearly two months, crude oil prices have fallen below $100 a barrel, reflecting investors' growing concerns about a US recession that could crimp demand for oil.

The price of West Texas Intermediate crude tumbled as much as 10% Tuesday, to hit a low of $97.43 before closing at $99.50, down 8% on the day. Brent crude oil was down by more than 10% when it hit a low for the day of $101.10 a barrel, before settling at $102.77 at the close.

It's the first time that WTI has been below $100 since May 11. That was also the last time Brent, which typically trades a bit higher, was below $102 a barrel. Brent has not been below $100 since April 25.

Wholesale gas futures fell as well, down almost 10% for the day at the close, or 36 cents a gallon.

The national average cost of a gallon of gas at the pump is now $4.80, according to the latest AAA reading, down one penny from Monday and 8 cents from a week ago. Gas prices crossed the $5 mark for the first time on June 11 and hit a peak of $5.02 a gallon on June 14.

 

Click on the link for the full article

🤔 

 

🤷‍♀️

[TheGreatBuzz]

27 minutes ago, China said:

Oil drops below $100 a barrel for first time since early May

 

For the first time in nearly two months, crude oil prices have fallen below $100 a barrel, reflecting investors' growing concerns about a US recession that could crimp demand for oil.

The price of West Texas Intermediate crude tumbled as much as 10% Tuesday, to hit a low of $97.43 before closing at $99.50, down 8% on the day. Brent crude oil was down by more than 10% when it hit a low for the day of $101.10 a barrel, before settling at $102.77 at the close.

It's the first time that WTI has been below $100 since May 11. That was also the last time Brent, which typically trades a bit higher, was below $102 a barrel. Brent has not been below $100 since April 25.

Wholesale gas futures fell as well, down almost 10% for the day at the close, or 36 cents a gallon.

The national average cost of a gallon of gas at the pump is now $4.80, according to the latest AAA reading, down one penny from Monday and 8 cents from a week ago. Gas prices crossed the $5 mark for the first time on June 11 and hit a peak of $5.02 a gallon on June 14.

 

Click on the link for the full article

 

I'm sure we will see prices drop at the pumps to normal sub-$100 per barrel level any time now.......

[Captain Wiggles]

4 minutes ago, The Almighty Buzz said:

 

I'm sure we will see prices drop at the pumps to normal sub-$100 per barrel level any time now.......

 

[skinsmarydu]

[EmirOfShmo]

 

 

[Captain Wiggles]

Not being unionized and remaining as independent contractors has broken the trucking industry. 🤷‍♂️

[Califan007 The Constipated]

 

 

 

[CousinsCowgirl84]

2 hours ago, Captain Wiggles said:

Not being unionized and remaining as independent contractors has broken the trucking industry. 🤷‍♂️

How would it of made a difference in the above scenario?

[Captain Wiggles]

2 minutes ago, CousinsCowgirl84 said:

How would it of made a difference in the above scenario?

 

A strong trucking union could mayhaps negotiate with the carriers and get them to ya know take their containers back so the truckers aren't stuck with all the fees.

 

Truckers are treated like **** by companies because they're no longer unionized. 🤷‍♂️

 

 

[CousinsCowgirl84]

Just now, Captain Wiggles said:

 

A strong trucking union could mayhaps negotiate with the carriers and get them to ya know take their containers back so the truckers aren't stuck with all the fees.

 

Truckers are treated like **** by companies because they're no longer unionized. 🤷‍♂️

 

 

It’s not the truckers that are getting stuck, it’s the trucking companies. Two different groups. And yes I saw that tv show too.

[Captain Wiggles]

18 minutes ago, CousinsCowgirl84 said:

It’s not the truckers that are getting stuck, it’s the trucking companies. Two different groups. And yes I saw that tv show too.

 

I understand that. The companies are stuck in part because of the congestion at ports? A strong trucking union mayhaps could help with that. Maybe some type of negotiations. Like hey yeah we can move all that ****. 🤷‍♂️

[CousinsCowgirl84]

23 minutes ago, Captain Wiggles said:

 

I understand that. The companies are stuck in part because of the congestion at ports? A strong trucking union mayhaps could help with that. Maybe some type of negotiations. Like hey yeah we can move all that ****. 🤷‍♂️

 

It depends on why the shipping company doesn’t want the containers back. I would think backhaul would be sent back to China et Al but who knows.

 

 

[skinsmarydu]

For some reason, ATL has some of the lowest gas prices in the nation.  Today I saw $3.98 at one place near where I work.  The QT near my house is at $4.09, and the QT about a mile down the road from that one is still at $4.29.  

[JCB]

It’s come down by 20 cents in the last couple weeks in Durham.

[The Evil Genius]

Expect lots of Hunter Biden talk now that prices are falling. 

[@DCGoldPants]

 

 

 

[TradeTheBeal!]

9 hours ago, The Evil Genius said:

Expect lots of Hunter Biden talk now that prices are falling. 

Are you psychic?

 

 

[PleaseBlitz]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2022/07/08/jobs-report-june-2022/

 

Quote

This morning, the Labor Department reported that 372,000 jobs were created in June, a healthy showing. For economists and policymakers, the hope is that jobs growth — which has been hovering around 400,000 new positions per month — will slow to a sustainable pace that could help moderate inflation, without a significant rise in unemployment.

 

The labor market is a crucial indicator of whether the country is in a recession, and so far there is little indication of a dramatic cool-down. The unemployment rate held steady at 3.6 percent, near historic lows. The Federal Reserve expects the jobless rate to rise gradually to 4.1 percent by 2024.

 

Overall, U.S. employers have added more than 6 million jobs in the past year.

 

[Larry]

It's just terrible, the way this Biden economy keeps adding jobs. 
 

Quit it. 
 

I mean it. 

[China]

Recession coming? No, it may already be here – NCSU economist explains why

 

The big news in the economics world is a question – are we already in a recession?  While a future recession has been talked about for months, the issue is becoming more prominent as many economists are raising their predictions of a recession occurring later this year or next.

 

But some economic analysts are going one more step.  They’re saying a recession is already here.  Why are they saying this?

 

Before giving an answer, some background on the definition of a recession is needed.  The federal government actually “farms out” the dating of recessions to an economic think tank, – the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER).  Despite its official sounding name, the NBER is a private outfit.   Its unique characteristic is that it has been around for over 100 years.

 

NBER defines a recession as occurring when there is a “significant decline in economic activity” that lasts for “more than a few months.”   This is a rather broad, non-specific definition that gives the NBER wide latitude in defining a recession.   The NBER says it looks at several measures of the economy in concluding if a recession has occurred.

 

There is, however, a “rule of thumb” definition of a recession.   The “rule” is that a recession occurs when a broad-based measure of the economy – called “gross domestic product (GDP)” – declines for two consecutive quarters, that is, six months.

 

“OK,” you may be saying, now translate GDP.   GDP is the monetary value of all goods and services produced for sale to “final users” in a specific period of time.  “Final users” are those who consume the good or service rather than reselling it.  Basing GDP on final users avoids counting inputs multiple times as they move through the supply chain.  For example, we wouldn’t want to count the value of the wood used in a home’s construction once when the tree is cut, a second time when the wood becomes lumber, and a third time when the home is sold.  Instead, the value of the wood is included in the home’s sale price.

 

Also, in comparing GDP from one time period to the next, the dollar values are adjusted to remove the impact of general inflation.  This eliminates the possibility of GDP rising just because prices are higher.

 

Now let’s get back to the idea that a recession may already be upon us.   The federal government has already released the data for GDP in the first quarter (January, February, and March) of 2022.  The GDP growth rate was negative for the nation as well as for most of the states, including North Carolina.  For the nation, the “annualized” growth rate was -1.6%, and for North Carolina the “annualized” growth rate was -1.4%.  Only four states – Massachusetts, Michigan, New Hampshire, and Vermont – registered positive growth rates for GDP.

 

Remember, it takes two consecutive quarters of negative growth in GDP to meet the “rule of thumb” of a recession.  Official GDP numbers for the second quarter of 2022 won’t be released until the end of July.  Still, there are forecasts available now for the second quarter rate.   One of the most respected forecasts is from the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.  Their current forecast shows the second quarter GDP rate at -2.1%.

 

With consecutive quarterly GDP growth rates  of -1.6% and -2.1%, the standard often applied to declare a recession would be meet.  Thus, if the Atlanta Fed’s forecast is correct, we may already be in a recession.

 

But if we already are in a recession, why doesn’t if feel like one?   Hiring is still occurring, the jobless rate is low, and consumers continue to spend.

 

A big reason is directly related to how the quarterly changes in GDP are reported.

 

Click on the link for the full article

[CousinsCowgirl84]

The fed wants the economy to slow, which is why they are raising interest rates. A mild recession of a few quarters not necessarily a bad thing… 

[Long n Left]

7 hours ago, CousinsCowgirl84 said:

The fed wants the economy to slow, which is why they are raising interest rates. A mild recession of a few quarters not necessarily a bad thing… 

Unless you’re trying to sell a $1M+ house in what WAS a burgeoning market. 🤦

[88Comrade2000]

If we are in a recession, the gop will be jumping for joy. Ramping up those Dem- Biden recession ads for the fall election.