The State of the Economy Thread - “Falling inflation, rising growth give U.S. the world’s best recovery”

[FanboyOf91]

15 minutes ago, BatteredFanSyndrome said:

 

Anyone else plotting buys right now?  I've watched more Jim Cramer the past week than ever before in my life.  

Stay away from oil names. Those are going to be a steal at some point, but not until they go through major bankruptcy/reorganization.

[88Comrade2000]

2 hours ago, TryTheBeal! said:

 

Would require extremely strong political leadership to enact it and see it through.

 

Think Trump can pull it off?

Trump would have to be dragged kicking and screaming. He’s going to be very reluctant to shut down the entire Economy.

[visionary]

 

 

 

[FanboyOf91]

 

Wish we had more seasonal context on that one.

[FanboyOf91]

Yikes.

[PCS]

 

[FanboyOf91]

 

[FanboyOf91]

 

[skinsmarydu]

Stay away from anything Cramer says. He should still be on an apology tour for telling everyone to buy Bear Stearns just days before the last crash. 

[88Comrade2000]

AMc is shutting down for next 6 to 12 weeks.

 

Went to the Seminole Hard Rock -Hollywood, FL yesterday.  They were still open but to keep people apart; they shut more than half of their slot machines.  So, the working ones were spaced out; so noone has to sit near anyone.

[Nerm]

3 hours ago, skinsmarydu said:

Stay away from anything Cramer says. He should still be on an apology tour for telling everyone to buy Bear Stearns just days before the last crash. 

 

I think there was a study a few years back evaluating Cramer's buy and sell recommendations over the first few years of his show.  If you did the opposite of what he said , (i.e. short when he says buy, and buy when he says sell), you would come out way ahead.  No idea if that still holds up for the past few years.

[Renegade7]

They way they are talking about Boeing right now, do they need to get bought out or merged or bailed out?  I agree, letting them just fall is a bad idea.

 

I can see some of these airlines merging to protect themselves like after 9/11, but what would a hypothetical Northop Gruman and Boeing merger look like?

[TheGreatBuzz]

30 minutes ago, Renegade7 said:

but what would a hypothetical Northop Gruman and Boeing merger look like?

In my opinion, that would make a single company too large for the common good.  They should be broken down to several smaller companies. 

[PeterMP]

27 minutes ago, Renegade7 said:

They way they are talking about Boeing right now, do they need to get bought out or merged or bailed out?  I agree, letting them just fall is a bad idea.

 

I can see some of these airlines merging to protect themselves like after 9/11, but what would a hypothetical Northop Gruman and Boeing merger look like?

 

Why would you want to keep Boeing?  Let them die and do somethings to let some other companies grow into replace them.

 

If there's an example of a company that has shown it needs to die more than Boeing, I don't know about it.

[Renegade7]

6 minutes ago, TheGreatBuzz said:

In my opinion, that would make a single company too large for the common good.  They should be broken down to several smaller companies. 

 

I agree, that's too large of a company making too many of our weapons systems, supposedly the most advanced in the planet.

4 minutes ago, PeterMP said:

 

Why would you want to keep Boeing?  Let them die and do somethings to let some other companies grow into replace them.

 

If there's an example of a company that has shown it needs to die more than Boeing, I don't know about it.

 

Supply chains at minimum, it was like why we saved auto industry.  Trust me, I don't like them either, but I don't think its that simple.

Edited March 18, 2020 by Renegade7

[PeterMP]

31 minutes ago, Renegade7 said:

Supply chains at minimum, it was like why we saved auto industry.  Trust me, I don't like them either, but I don't think its that simple.

 

Boeing employees 160,000 people.  Ford alone employees more than that, and that then doesn't include thing like dealerships that aren't generally Ford owned.  There are no Boeing dealerships that depend on Boeing being operational.  Much less ones all of the country.  The comparison isn't valid. 

 

And the car industry's problems were heavily related to the recession.  Boeing's problems are because of Boeing.

 

And I'll guarantee you the ratio to a higher skilled worker like engineer to lower skilled worker like assembly plant person is much higher in Boeing than the car industry where you'd expect those people's much more easily to get jobs.

 

The situations aren't really comparable.

Edited March 18, 2020 by PeterMP

[PeterMP]

I don't know much about the aeronautical industry.  But if a "healthy" company is going to die because they share a supply chain with Boeing that will go under if Boeing goes under, then I could see doing something to support the companies in that supply chain or that healthy company as they figure out changes in their supply chain.

 

That's an argument that I might buy.  But that doesn't mean that saving Boeing makes any sense.

Edited March 18, 2020 by PeterMP

[Renegade7]

14 minutes ago, PeterMP said:

I don't know much about the aeronautical industry.  But if a "healthy" company is going to die because they share a supply chain with Boeing that will go under if Boeing goes under, then I could see doing something to support the companies in that supply chain or that healthy company as they figure out changes in their supply chain.

 

That's an argument that I might buy.  But that doesn't mean that saving Boeing makes any sense.

 

I'm going to respond to both your post at same time because I think you are slowly seeing my point, and I get yours.

 

If Ford or GM individually went down that still would've been a huge amount of damage that would've rippled through the economy.  That's the way they are talking about Boeing right now, they are getting creamed because of what's happening to airlines, but are having harder time raising liquid assets to get through it (the second part yes is their fault).  They are going to bail out the airlines at this rate so they dont go under before we start flying again, Boeing is making many of their planes.

 

Their employees will go where in this new reality for the airline industry?  And if the defense contractors go to competitors, how do we make sure that's done in an orderly fashion versus US military R&D flying all over the place?  I'm not saying they will, but I'm not sure the last time something like this happened to a major US weapons supplier.

 

@TheGreatBuzz is right that we don't want a super contractor company, but those contracts and employees gotta go somewhere if we do let Boeing fall.  And those supply chains and downstream businesses are going to get bit the same way if a single major US automaker folded, I'm open to number saying they aren't comparable. 

 

A better comparison is a single US auto company going down, not the entire US auto industry.  But still more complicated because of what Boeing does and for who, aren't they in direct competition with SpaceX as well?

Edited March 18, 2020 by Renegade7

[PeterMP]

12 minutes ago, Renegade7 said:

 

I'm going to respond to both your post at same time because I think you are slowly seeing my point, and I get yours.

 

If Ford or GM individually went down that still would've been a huge amount of damage that would've rippled through the economy.  That's the way they are talking about Boeing right now, they are getting creamed because of what's happening to airlines, but are having harder time raising liquid assets to get through it (the second part yes is their fault).  They are going to bail out the airlines at this rate so they dont go under before we start flying again, Boeing is making many of their planes.

 

Their employees will go where in this new reality for the airline industry?  And if the defense contractors go to competitors, how do we make sure that's done in an orderly fashion versus US military R&D flying all over the place?  I'm not saying they will, but I'm not sure the last time something like this happened to a major US weapons supplier.

 

@TheGreatBuzz is right that we don't want a super contractor company, but those contracts and employees gotta go somewhere if we do let Boeing fall.  And those supply chains and downstream businesses are going to get bit the same way if a single major US automaker folded, I'm open to number saying they aren't comparable. 

 

A better comparison is a single US auto company going down, not the entire US auto industry.  But still more complicated because of what Boeing does and for who, aren't they in direct competition with SpaceX as well?

 

SpaceX has multiple competitors, and if Boeing dies that just opens up more space for the others or new ones.

 

Boeing employees are free to change jobs now.  We don't worry about it now (much).  If that's really an issue in general, then we should think about nationalizing the entire defense industry (which I think might actually make sense).  In this case, let Boeing go under and nationalize the national defense component of the company.  I'm fine with that.

 

Bailing out the airline industries should be enough though.  There's a reason why your talking about saving Boeing and not other airplane makers

 

Like I said, I could see an argument for helping the supply chain companies or healthy companies that are affected because of supply chain issues.

[Renegade7]

8 minutes ago, PeterMP said:

 

SpaceX has multiple competitors, and if Boeing dies that just opens up more space for the others or new ones.

 

That's true, but just one example and part of bigger conversation in regards to US Space program, but I get your point.

 

Quote

Boeing employees are free to change jobs now.  We don't worry about it now (much).  If that's really an issue in general, then we should think about nationalizing the entire defense industry (which I think might actually make sense).  In this case, let Boeing go under and nationalize the national defense component of the company.  I'm fine with that.

 

This I agree with, but doubt we have the balls to do it. NOVA would lose its mind.

 

Quote

Bailing out the airline industries should be enough though.  There's a reason why your talking about saving Boeing and not other airplane makers

 

Like I said, I could see an argument for helping the supply chain companies or healthy companies that are affected because of supply chain issues.

 

This is the cruc right here, plenty of cases to let them fold, but this may be the primary reason they don't.  I'm thinking of how many planes in the air are already made by Boeing and where the maintenance parts will come from if they fold. 

 

A lot of US airliners are transitioning to airbus, who has their own problems and controversies. So does that mean Boeing should be split up? I can live with that versus letting it straight die.

Edited March 18, 2020 by Renegade7

[FanboyOf91]

 

[Cooked Crack]

 

 

[PleaseBlitz]

Starting to sound like 2008 when Obama trounced McCain.  

[FanboyOf91]

You know what's crazy? The Trumpites are nodding knowingly at this statement.

 

[Barry.Randolphe]

I just changed my 401k contributions to as much as I can put in....this is going to be an interesting time