2020 Comprehensive Draft Thread

[Skinsinparadise]

ESPN early draft projections

 

1. Miami Dolphins (0-2)

Average draft position: 1.9
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 61.7%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 95.3%

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2. New York Giants (0-2)

Average draft position: 5.9
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 8.7%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 56.8%

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3. Cincinnati Bengals (0-2)

Average draft position: 7.2
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 6.3%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 46.6%

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4. New York Jets (0-2)

Average draft position: 8.0
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 4.7%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 38%

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5. Washington Redskins (0-2)

Average draft position: 8.0
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 3.9%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 38%

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6. Arizona Cardinals (0-1-1)

Average draft position: 8.7
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 3%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 33.8%

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7. Carolina Panthers (0-2)

Average draft position: 8.8
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 2.8%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 33.5%

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8. Jacksonville Jaguars (0-2)

Average draft position: 9.4
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 2.7%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 31.3%

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9. Miami Dolphins (from 0-2 PIT)

Average draft position: 9.5
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 1.9%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 28.2%

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10. Oakland Raiders (1-1)

Average draft position: 10.0
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 1.5%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 25.1%

 

https://www.espn.com/nfl/draft2020/story/_/id/27468789/projected-2020-nfl-draft-order-no-1-pick

[Going Commando]

McLaurin has been a revelation in the way that Michael Thomas was a revelation.  Granted, Thomas was still a first round pick.  But I am learning the lesson that you can't judge an Ohio State receiver by his production for them.

 

The Senior Bowl performances for McLaurin were the better picture of his ability.  That's definitely not always the case, but it's something to file away for the future.

 

Another thing to think about with McLaurin is that age isn't everything, and sometimes older prospects like him and Scherff are good bets to be excellent immediately, and thus lock down a spot high on your depth chart from their rookie season on.

 

I didn't think much of McLaurin's potential as an X receiver at all, thought he was going to be a flanker-only and mainly a special teams contributor.  I've never been so happy to be wrong.  I am thrilled at the potential that he and Kelvin Harmon have, I can see them becoming a John Ross/Tyler Boyd type combo.  Between them, Haskins, and Bryce Love, we've got a really good foundation of offensive skill talent.

[SemperFi Skins]

I'd be surprised if we didn't end up with Dylan Moses.... although super talented and prototypical, he's missing the entire 2019 season due to ACL injury, but plays at Alabama and would almost certainly tear it again in training camp, because, Redskins......

[Going Commando]

Fifth overall would be Andrew Thomas range...

 

If we get my favorite player in the first round for the third straight year, I'm going to lose it.  I will be convinced the worm has turned and we're finally going to start getting good.

 

Trade Trent, draft Andrew Thomas and Sam Cosmi (if they come out), and find a tight end somewhere and the offense will really start to come together.

[Skinsinparadise]

17 minutes ago, stevemcqueen1 said:

McLaurin has been a revelation in the way that Michael Thomas was a revelation.  Granted, Thomas was still a first round pick.  But I am learning the lesson that you can't judge an Ohio State receiver by his production for them.

 

The Senior Bowl performances for McLaurin were the better picture of his ability.  That's definitely not always the case, but it's something to file away for the future.

 

Another thing to think about with McLaurin is that age isn't everything, and sometimes older prospects like him and Scherff are good bets to be excellent immediately, and thus lock down a spot high on your depth chart from their rookie season on.

 

I didn't think much of McLaurin's potential as an X receiver at all, thought he was going to be a flanker-only and mainly a special teams contributor.  I've never been so happy to be wrong.  I am thrilled at the potential that he and Kelvin Harmon have, I can see them becoming a John Ross/Tyler Boyd type combo.  Between them, Haskins, and Bryce Love, we've got a really good foundation of offensive skill talent.

 

With McLaurin, I'd add the intangibles aspect.  It's tough for us to see that since we don't know the personalities that well but with McLaurin it was touted to death that the dude is mature as heck, a studier, a worker, leader etc.  I put a scouting report on him from several scouts who went to town on it. 

 

College dominator scores undervalue receivers who peak late.  They want receivers to have larger sample sizes of success, etc.   I get it.  But context matters.  Devin Thomas for example who peaked the season before the draft and didn't have a multi year sample size of success -- also came off immature and lazy and even showed up to camp out of shape.   McLaurin is a totally different kind of cat. 

 

And his stats were deceivingly good too -- 20 YPR, 11 TDs, a sick catch % and QB rating when Haskins threw his way.   And his combine numbers were sick, too.  McLaurin wasn't my fav receiver in this group but I liked him.  Just like I am sure you feel with Haskins, I feel especially vested in McLaurin in part because in the mix I wrote a long post pushing him in the morning right before we drafted him, and even got into a tough exchange about it too with some others at the time.   I pushed Harmon on draft day, too.  I want to end up right on both guys in part because I was so wrong about Doctson. 🙄  So far so good but there is ways to go. 

[sportjunkie07]

You cannot use a large paint brush like college dominator stats to strictly determine a players chance of success. Every prospect needs to be looked at individually to develop a clear picture of the prospect.

 

Individually, McLaurin was elite in college at everything he was allowed by coaches to be elite in. He was also elite at the combine and senior bowl. 

 

His only red flag was a lack of college production which can be explained both by the talent at Ohio state, but mostly due to the run heavy scheme they employed while he was there. The opportunity for him to have dominant stats was not there. 

 

Additionally, he landed in great spot. He'd either have a qb willing to throw him the ball or his college qb, while on a redskins roster that was begging for someone to step up and take the reigns. The redskins cutting doctson and highlighting mclaurin is one of the few personnel moves I've agreed with over the past decade. 

[nonniey]

8 hours ago, stevemcqueen1 said:

McLaurin has been a revelation in the way that Michael Thomas was a revelation.  Granted, Thomas was still a first round pick.  But I am learning the lesson that you can't judge an Ohio State receiver by his production for them.

 

The Senior Bowl performances for McLaurin were the better picture of his ability.  That's definitely not always the case, but it's something to file away for the future.

 

Another thing to think about with McLaurin is that age isn't everything, and sometimes older prospects like him and Scherff are good bets to be excellent immediately, and thus lock down a spot high on your depth chart from their rookie season on.

 

I didn't think much of McLaurin's potential as an X receiver at all, thought he was going to be a flanker-only and mainly a special teams contributor.  I've never been so happy to be wrong.  I am thrilled at the potential that he and Kelvin Harmon have, I can see them becoming a John Ross/Tyler Boyd type combo.  Between them, Haskins, and Bryce Love, we've got a really good foundation of offensive skill talent.

Thomas was a mid 2d round pick.  Damn I wish we took whatever Dallas was offering to move up in the 1st that draft - We'd have missed out on Doctson and Dallas would have drafted Lynch (later passing on Prescott).

[Warhead36]

3 hours ago, nonniey said:

Thomas was a mid 2d round pick.  Damn I wish we took whatever Dallas was offering to move up in the 1st that draft - We'd have missed out on Doctson and Dallas would have drafted Lynch (later passing on Prescott).

IIRC we were rumored to be interested in Thomas at the time. McLoughan loved him.

[Going Commando]

@volsmet your boy Tyler Vaughns got in on the party tonight, but Michael Pittman Jr was insane.  He was just ****ing running by guys, jumping over them, and plucking the ball out of the air.  It was spectacular.

 

That is a high powered receiver core that is quietly one of the best in the country.

 

USC is also down to their third string QB and he's good.  The second stringer looked flat out special.  And Daniels was a proven quality starter and winner.  They don't seem to appreciate Clay Helton much, but that man absolutely knows how to coach and recruit the quarterback position.  Would love to have him at Virginia Tech or Georgia Tech...

[Going Commando]

I can't figure out what I'm missing with Pittman.  Why isn't he being touted as a potential top 40-50 pick?  Drafttek has him at 217 on their board and he's not on CBS's board at all right now.  I thought he was pretty much a known quantity heading into the season.

 

You'd have to imagine he caught some eyes and will be properly ranked after tonight right?  But if not, a guy like him as a potential late day 3 pick?  That is insane value.  He would be a perfect fit here.

[Going Commando]

USC's schedule is brutal this year.  If they somehow manage to run the table and finish with just the one loss, I think they should get in to the playoff.  That kind of run would be far more worthy than an undefeated run through any of the other conferences.  Far more worthy than the season that got Wahington in.

 

Slovis will have to come back for them to have any chance though.  Otherwise they're not going to beat Notre Dame or Oregon.

[Going Commando]

Holy crap Michigan is awful.  Jonathan Taylor dropped 140 on them in the first quarter before getting hurt.

 

Harbaugh is a fraud.  He's not coaching those kids for ****.

[Going Commando]

The Cal vs Ole Miss match up has been pretty good.  Cal's defense is pretty nice and their MLB had like 12 tackles in the first half.  He's a potential late day three prospect to watch.

[Going Commando]

When Nick Coe is on, he is the most dominant player on that super talented Auburn line.  He's been popping in this first quarter.  The A&M o-line is totally overmatched.

[Going Commando]

One thing I don't understand about the way Auburn uses Nick Coe this year, why is he playing so much three technique on first downs?  Shouldn't he be setting the edge?

It's good that he's versatile but I feel like he'd be much more consistent if he played more of his snaps in one spot.

[Skinsinparadise]

6 hours ago, stevemcqueen1 said:

Holy crap Michigan is awful.  Jonathan Taylor dropped 140 on them in the first quarter before getting hurt.

 

Harbaugh is a fraud.  He's not coaching those kids for ****.

 

Yeah I wasted my time watching this one.  At least I saw the sick highlights from Ruggs that they showed every now and then from the Alabama game.  That dude might got top 10.     Jonathan Taylor looked great against Michigan, he runs really upright though.   He had some crazy big holes to run through but not always. 

 

 

 

Good test tonight for Georgia's 2 tackles.

 

 

 

[Going Commando]

Notre Dame has been very game so far.  That was some bizarre and clever playcalling in the redzone on that TD drive.

 

I am 100% sold on Thomas.  He is such a fantastic athlete.  The range and snap quickness are as good as it gets.

[volsmet]

Tyree Gillespie, DB from Missouri, looks like a prospect worth following.

 

 

 

14 hours ago, stevemcqueen1 said:

USC's schedule is brutal this year.  If they somehow manage to run the table and finish with just the one loss, I think they should get in to the playoff.  That kind of run would be far more worthy than an undefeated run through any of the other conferences.  Far more worthy than the season that got Wahington in.

 

Slovis will have to come back for them to have any chance though.  Otherwise they're not going to beat Notre Dame or Oregon.

 

Finkle is Slovis, slovis is finkle.

 

I agree, USC will definitely get in if they run the table, they have young stud CBs, Griffin & Stewart, who will need to step up... they’re plenty capable. 

 

9 hours ago, stevemcqueen1 said:

The Cal vs Ole Miss match up has been pretty good.  Cal's defense is pretty nice and their MLB had like 12 tackles in the first half.  He's a potential late day three prospect to watch.

 

Bring Justin Wilcox to DC. 

[RemoveSnyder]

#83 is legit. 

[Going Commando]

5 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

At least I saw the sick highlights from Ruggs that they showed every now and then from the Alabama game.  That dude might got top 10. 

 

If John Ross can go top ten, then Ruggs can go top ten.  Slot guys can star in the modern NFL.  And world class speed can cover up many sins as a route runner.

 

I'd take any of the Alabama receivers, but I still think I like Smith the best even though he is underutilized compared to the top three guys they've got.  I don't think you have to spend a high pick to get him whereas the other three will probably be first rounders when they each go pro.

 

If we're looking at the Alabama defenders, I thnk they're diminished in talent from where they were two seasons ago.  But I still love Anfernee Jennings.  He is a souped up version of Ryan Anderson.  Has some Donta Hightower to his game.  He's got an injury history that is concerning, but he's a culture builder and he's the kind of guy the Ravens would draft.  I don't think he'll take a high pick to get either, so he could be late day 2 or day 3 value.

[tibbidoe]

I'm just excited to see which injury-prone guy we draft in the mid-to-late rounds. I'm hopeful that it's at a position to back up a veteran injury-prone player.

 

"Yeah, he has an injury history, but once he gets used to that prosthetic leg, he's gonna be a beast."

[Skinsinparadise]

I focused some on  Andrew Thomas last night. Strong hands, locks on well to his target both in the passing and run game, can pull. I didn’t see much 2nd level stuff but that seemed scheme driven.

 

Sign me up. Aside from having the same number as Trent he reminds me of him in that for a big dude he looks really fluid. And he can maul.

 

I watched Eichenberg (also a touted prospect by draft geeks) on the other side at LT some last night. He seemed all right but doesn’t have Thomas’ hands or fluid-graceful style. He seemed stiff at times. He had a dumb penalty, too.

 

Ive seen a bunch of Swift now and I am sold on him but I presume RB isn’t in play next year early in the draft so it’s irrelevant.

[Going Commando]

9 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

Ive seen a bunch of Swift now and I am sold on him but I presume RB isn’t in play next year early in the draft so it’s irrelevant. 

 

I was watching Thomas last night too.  I was able to flip back and forth between the Georgia offense and the Texas offense pretty well.  Those were both good games too.

 

I would say that there isn't as much difference in ability level between the Georgia and Texas offenses as you'd think, and that if Texas hadn't played LSU so early in the season, they'd have a real chance at a run to the CFP.

 

I love Thomas, he reminds me of Trent too.  And I'm getting to the point where I love Sam Cosmi too.  Texas does interesting things with him as a blocker and they run behind him a lot.  There was one touchdown where they moved him over to the right side almost as a tight end and then ran an option play through his gap and it was pretty cool to see.  He is a really good run blocker and the protections look way better this season than they did last year.  He's a different player now.  Keaontay Ingram is a nice running back too, he had one little dumpoff that he took for like 20+ yards and broke about 15 tackles.  He'll be one to watch for 2021.

 

I'm hoping Cosmi goes pro this spring because I think we'd have a chance to buy low on him.  If he goes back to school, Texas could have a NC caliber offense and he could play his way into being a top ten pick.  Thus I expect him to go back to school.  But if he comes out early, he's big time potential value, and a solution at LT if we pick too late for a bonafide stud like Thomas.

 

Addressing your comment about RB, I wouldn't discount it early in the draft.  Either in the first or from trading Trent or from moving down, we could be in a spot where BPA meets need with RB early n in the draft.  I think Guice's injury history puts his career in jeopardy.  It's sad, because I really enjoy the way he plays and wish that he'd gotten a fair shake here, but I'm not sure we can bank on him.  And if we don't have Guice, then RB becomes a pressing need.

 

I'm sold on Swift too and he looks like a first rounder.  But I like the depth of this RB class far better than last year's or 2018's, where the bottom really fell out on the class after the second round.  So RB could be in play in the middle rounds as well.  There is going to be real committee RB value late on day 2 and early on day 3.

 

I'm buying in on Jonathan Taylor too, and right now his projections put him somewhere between the late first and early second--Nick Chubb/Sony Michel value.  He's better than them, IMO.  Yes, he definitely benefits from strong blocking between the tackles, but he's got elite vision and patience.  He's the kind of back that sees the tiny creases coming before they flash open.  Superior instincts.  And he's also got open field speed paired with power.  I don't see him being a Saquon-style runner that can just create everything behind the line and routinely beat an NFL defense to the edge.  But he could be monstrously productive in a classic one-cut zone blocking system and running zone options out of shotgun heavy packages behind a line with good interior blocking.  And he's got a Josh Jacobs/Saquon Barkley type of build that holds up really well in the NFL.  He's got some Josh Jacobs in him for sure.  I also see a little bit of Frank Gore too, less twitch and start-stop ability but better size and power.  Similar vision.

 

He could potentially be a really, really strong first punch in a one-two punch with Bryce Love.

 

Najee Harris has also been showing out the last two weeks.  I watched the replay of the Alabama Southern Miss game and everything just looks so easy for him.  He definitely feels like an equal part of that ridiculous Bama arsenal.  I like that he's got strong value in the pass game, and that catch and run against South Carolina was freaking incredible.  He'll draw comparisons to Derek Henry and Bo Scarborough, but he's something different from them.  He's not as high cut as them and he's a better receiver.

 

Drafttek also currently has AJ Dillon ranked 94.  That feels like awesome value for a late third round pick.  These guys are pretty exciting candidates for the power-back spot in our committee.  I think we can either maneuver around the draft on day one and/or early day two and either get a stud RB prospect, or sit tight for strong value late on day two or early on day three.

[Going Commando]

Here is that ridiculous Najee Harris play:

 

 

[Skinsinparadise]