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The Washington Nationals Thread: The Future is Near!


Riggo#44

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2 hours ago, Riggo#44 said:

 

 

Did the Rangers deal have deferrals too?  Otherwise, how is 32 per year in a state with no income tax "very close" to slightly over 30 per year with deferral?  Even without tax consequencs, Rangers deal is much better.

 

Svrluga reported that it was a 7 year deferral with similar structure to Max.  Assuming 7% return, that puts the net present value with even distribution over those 7 years at $135.55 million.  Rangers deal if it had no deferral, even with a 6 year contract, the net present value is $152.53 million.  Angels deal, even with the backloaded structure (26 in the first two years and 38.6 the remaining five) has a net present value of $185.25 million.  It's really not accurate to say that Rangers valuation was very close to the Nats.  Rangers offered a contract with 17 million more in present value for six years of services.  

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@-JB- You realize I'm talking about the potential of the DC market right?  Obviously, DC baseball market right now is much smaller than Boston.  And due to the population difference alone, it will never reach the heights of NY or LA.  But with long term success, it can certainly reach the peak of places like Boston or what Houston saw for the last few years.  Success grows the market like it did during 2012-2018.  Championships will grow the market even more.  People may have a perception of Boston being NY/LA type of market and it simply is not. 

 

And if Boston can hit #3 revenue with their market, Nats can certainly grow to a comparable level.  TV money is already not too far off and attendance in pre WS years are very close as well (with the Nats little ahead).  You shouldn't be comparing Boston now with the last decade and a half they had with the Nats now.  I'm talking about potential.  Boston is probably pretty close to max.  Nats should have room to grow.

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@bearrock Sure, DC has the potential.  At the same time, teams with much bigger revenue streams, right now aren’t giving out multiple 245 million dollar deals in the same offseason.  Yankees who are #1 just gave their biggest deal in a while to Cole.  Stanton has a big contract but aside from that they aren’t just doling out huge deals.  Same with Red Sox & Dodgers.  Red Sox paid Sale/Price.  The Dodgers paid Kershaw.  We paid Max/Stras.  Bellinger isn’t a FA until 2024.  The Nats actually are operating like the big wigs.  They have one of the highest payrolls in baseball.  The better run teams aren’t doling out ridiculous contracts to position players.  They rarely ever work out.  The Red Sox are looking to move away from that Mookie Betts contract already.  It’s also why the Angels suck.  Their 5 biggest salaries are to position players lol. Gotta have that front line starting pitching.  Made sense for them to chase Gerrit Cole. To miss out on Cole to just throw $ at Rendon just seems like desperation.  They were #7 offensively last season but their pitching was terrible.  Now they can improve offensively, maybe, with an equally bad pitching rotation for the foreseeable future *shrugs*

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1 hour ago, -JB- said:

@bearrock Sure, DC has the potential.  At the same time, teams with much bigger revenue streams, right now aren’t giving out multiple 245 million dollar deals in the same offseason.  Yankees who are #1 just gave their biggest deal in a while to Cole.  Stanton has a big contract but aside from that they aren’t just doling out huge deals.  Same with Red Sox & Dodgers.  Red Sox paid Sale/Price.  The Dodgers paid Kershaw.  We paid Max/Stras.  Bellinger isn’t a FA until 2024.  The Nats actually are operating like the big wigs.  They have one of the highest payrolls in baseball.  The better run teams aren’t doling out ridiculous contracts to position players.  They rarely ever work out.  The Red Sox are looking to move away from that Mookie Betts contract already.  It’s also why the Angels suck.  Their 5 biggest salaries are to position players lol. Gotta have that front line starting pitching.  Made sense for them to chase Gerrit Cole. To miss out on Cole to just throw $ at Rendon just seems like desperation.  They were #7 offensively last season but their pitching was terrible.  Now they can improve offensively, maybe, with an equally bad pitching rotation for the foreseeable future *shrugs*

 

Just as you can't load up on bats with no pitching, you can't load up on pitching with no bats.  It's not as simple as just give the big contracts to pitchers.  You supplement via free agency what you need, which also factors in your fallback options of engaging in a bidding war for 34 year old Donaldson, trading the farm, or turning to an unproven rookie.  You seem to be neglecting the fact that Rizzo offered 30 AAV to Rendon.  Obviously Rizzo doesn't feel that no hitters should get massive contracts.  He had to prioritize due to budget constraints he had.  Which is all besides the point from the potential of DC market.

 

Teams like NY and LA regularly pay the cbt penalty because of their revenue, but you chalk that up to market size.  Boston also regularly pays the cbt penalty and no, DC is not operating like Boston.  You can debate about whether they should or not, but you can't seriously claim that DC is operating like them when we've exceeded the cbt once and Boston has done it consistently over the last 15 years.  

 

Boston is listening to offers on Betts (as all teams should always be at listening) because they want to reset the penalty this year.  Even then John Henry has said that going below the cap is not a mandate.  

 

All big contracts carry risks, whether they be pitchers or hitters.  Boston last year was prime example of how big contracts to pitchers can go wrong with Price and Sales drastically underperforming.  Wasted money is wasted money.  It doesn't matter which position it's wasted on.

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8 minutes ago, -JB- said:

@bearrock The Red Sox just won the WS in 2018.  We can slow down on the wasted $ talk

 

They were not wasted money in 2018 (which I never said).  They were definitely wasted money in 2019.  Horrible seasons by Sales, Price, and Porcello, all on big contracts, were big reasons for Sox missing the playoffs.  

 

You could pay last year's Rendon 35 mil per year without batting an eyelash.  The point is the inherent risk in players not living up to their mega contracts, especially towards the end.  Well, pitchers are not immune from that problem as Boston showed last year.

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17 minutes ago, bearrock said:

 

They were not wasted money in 2018 (which I never said).  They were definitely wasted money in 2019.  Horrible seasons by Sales, Price, and Porcello, all on big contracts, were big reasons for Sox missing the playoffs.  

 

You could pay last year's Rendon 35 mil per year without batting an eyelash.  The point is the inherent risk in players not living up to their mega contracts, especially towards the end.  Well, pitchers are not immune from that problem as Boston showed last year.

They had down seasons, for sure.  Most aren’t immune to down seasons.  They did get that WS tho!  

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Like I said, couldn't care less what their political leanings are. Sports are a getaway from that crap. Moving on again...

 

 

lol @ Braves fan...I think they allowed more runs to the Cardinals in the 1st inning of Game 5 then we allowed in the entire series against them.

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Honestly I bet most of these guys don't follow politics much at all. They probably just look at Trump as any other President. These guys live in different worlds. Its whatever to me.

2 hours ago, StillUnknown said:

 

its not an option for some.

 

its less about political leanings and more a revelation of character

 

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18 hours ago, -JB- said:

Kinda surprising with Rendon.  But folks were clamoring for Zimmerman & Suzuki to hit the road so now they can sleep a little better at night knowing Rendon is gone ha

It's funny to see how many people are completely disregarding all of the great work off the field Zimmerman and Rendon have done over this.

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