2019 Comprehensive Draft Thread

[Going Commando]

I'm not convinced that having All Pros on your team is particularly relevant though seeing as how the Patriots are always in the SB and usually they only have like one guy on the team and then maybe some random special teamer.  Weird how few selections Brady has received considering he's the greatest player in the history of the sport.  He's got more Superbowl Rings than selections.  Maybe there is something to the complaint that the selection process is biased and flawed.

 

You're probably better off with a team full of good players like Dont'a Hightower, Patrick Chung, and Kyle Van Noys, with maybe one great player to anchor your unit like Stephen Gilmore.  No weak links, and guys who may not be the most talented, but have a knack for making winning plays in key moments.  That Broncos defense from their Super Bowl year also comes to mind.  Not a lot of special in that group other than Harris and Miller, unless you consider Talib to be at that level.  But a whole lot of really good.

 

So this notion actually argues for trading down and stockpiling picks in the second and third rounds rather than drafting that super blue chipper in the first.  But if you do so, then you have to actually spend them well and get real value from them.  If you don't manage that, then yeah, you're probably better off staying put and getting the stud.  Getting crap value for our picks after the first round was the biggest issue we had with our 2011 class.

[Skinsinparadise]

I think the All Pro conversation is getting a bit off track.  My point was purely Derwin James was really really really good in year 1.  And I find some irony that he was first team all pro in year 1, something aside from Turk not accomplished with any other player on this team during Dan's reign.  The idea that this draft is loaded with DTs and Swearinger is now gone -- doesn't make me feel better at passing him in that draft.  And that's no shot at Payne, he's a good player.  But if I can do it all over again, I'd redo that one in a heartbeat.  It was my thought then, and its even more pronounced now.  But it is what it is. 

 

Much more so that an All Pro, I do think this team needs some pizzaz.   It's a tough point to make to people like us because heck we'd watch Josh Johnson and any scrub off the street play and enjoy it and live and die with every play.  But I think this team is in trouble with ordinary fans.  And if Dan is concerned about his brand (as some say he is), he needs to draft or sign a marketable player.   As an example, my wife and her family are Giants fans -- and by extension I follow them closely, too.  And you'd think that team is in a different stratosphere than the Redskins as to getting national love and attention even though their record has been worse in recent years. 

 

They got Barkley and Beckham in national commercials.  Their jerseys sells everywhere and I run into people wearing them.  They get attention.  Redskins could really use a marketable star.    Murray would clearly be a guy like that.  Otherwise as crazy as it might sound, Hockenson might give them some buzz.  A dude who can maul over guys as a blocker and also make hard catches and do YAC -- I think he's potentially a marketable star.  I personally don't care about that.  But I can see why they might start caring about that sort of thing as at least part of the soup.

 

 

 

[Going Commando]

On 2/4/2019 at 9:15 PM, volsmet said:

The pats drafts tend to be unimpressive. 

 

This is true.  They get a lot of foundation players from the middle rounds, but not a lot of names that knock your socks off.  But they're getting positive value from most of their picks.  These guys tend to stick around for a while for them, and their rosters are very stable.  I think that is a major key to their success.  And then what really puts them over the top is how they get talent from unconventional means--UDFAs and seventh rounders who pan out big, free agent signings that always seem to live up to their deals, and low cost trades where they feast on unstable franchises who can't hold onto their talent.

 

Edelman was a seventh rounder

David Andrews was a UDFA

They moved down from the sixth round to the seventh and got Van Noy

They got Jason McCourty from Cleveland for another move-down from the sixth to seventh

They got Shelton and a fifth for a third rounder

They got Trent Brown for moving down about 50 spots in the draft

Larence Guy, Adrian Clayborn, and Rex Burkhead were all bargain free agents.

Gilmore was a big money free agent who has panned out for them as well as they could have possibly hoped.

 

I think they are pretty good at drafting, and exceptionally good at evaluating pro-player personnel.  I think they're also one of the best organizations at scheming to match their talent and figuring out ways to use unconventional players who are good.  And I think their leadership (HC & QB) is the best in NFL history, which stabilizes their organization and gives them a cultural superiority to the rest of the league.

[Anselmheifer]

33 minutes ago, stevemcqueen1 said:

 

This is true.  They get a lot of foundation players from the middle rounds, but not a lot of names that knock your socks off.  But they're getting positive value from most of their picks.  These guys tend to stick around for a while for them, and their rosters are very stable.  I think that is a major key to their success.  And then what really puts them over the top is how they get talent from unconventional means--UDFAs and seventh rounders who pan out big, free agent signings that always seem to live up to their deals, and low cost trades where they feast on unstable franchises who can't hold onto their talent.

 

Edelman was a seventh rounder

David Andrews was a UDFA

They moved down from the sixth round to the seventh and got Van Noy

They got Jason McCourty from Cleveland for another move-down from the sixth to seventh

They got Shelton and a fifth for a third rounder

They got Trent Brown for moving down about 50 spots in the draft

Larence Guy, Adrian Clayborn, and Rex Burkhead were all bargain free agents.

Gilmore was a big money free agent who has panned out for them as well as they could have possibly hoped.

 

I think they are pretty good at drafting, and exceptionally good at evaluating pro-player personnel.  I think they're also one of the best organizations at scheming to match their talent and figuring out ways to use unconventional players who are good.  And I think their leadership (HC & QB) is the best in NFL history, which stabilizes their organization and gives them a cultural superiority to the rest of the league.

It's easy for your draft picks to look good when people are catching balls and blocking for the best QB to ever play, and one who gets the ball out quickly. On defense, they consistently have brilliant schemes and make the most of who they draft. I think they are even better at signing FA than they are at drafting. 

I totally agree that it sucks to have drafted Payne last year instead of James, and now we don't have a safety and it is an epic DT draft. That's the problem with this FO. always drafting for need and always short sighted. In a great year to draft a WR, we will probably now draft a Daniel Jones and then suck bad enough to pick up Tua next year, but take a WR next year instead. 

[skinny21]

That’s depressing @stevemcqueen1 - at best we can say we’re also ‘pretty good at drafting’.  

 

BTW, been looking at backs and I’m firmly on board with your Montgomery hype.  I haven’t ranked them yet, but I noticed Walter has him ranked 18th, which is a complete joke.  CBS at least has him 3rd, which seems far closer to the truth.  

[Going Commando]

5 minutes ago, Anselmheifer said:

It's easy for your draft picks to look good when people are catching balls and blocking for the best QB to ever play, and one who gets the ball out quickly. On defense, they consistently have brilliant schemes and make the most of who they draft. I think they are even better at signing FA than they are at drafting. 

I totally agree that it sucks to have drafted Payne last year instead of James, and now we don't have a safety and it is an epic DT draft. That's the problem with this FO. always drafting for need and always short sighted. In a great year to draft a WR, we will probably now draft a Daniel Jones and then suck bad enough to pick up Tua next year, but take a WR next year instead.  

 

Eh, I think the high level performance of their OL is more about Scarnecchia and acquiring a group of smart, homegrown talent that has been together for a while than it is about Brady.  And Julian Edelman would be torching nickle defenders no matter where he played.  These are good players and they're getting superior coaching.

 

I think you guys are worrying too much about future classes, and the pining for Derwin James is getting out of hand.  If I could go back to last year's draft, I would absolutely pick DaRon Payne again.  Payne is special and he was a BPA pick.  He was even better than I expected last season, showing a lot more development as an A gap rusher than anticipated.  Moreover I would never, ever prioritize a safety over an every down interior DL.  Safety is the Center of the defense.  Their assignments are the easiest on the unit and I can get good players to fill the position well with cheap free agents and mid to late round draft picks.  Meanwhile a high end A gap rusher who can play a dominant two gap nose on run downs is a unicorn.  A gap rushers are becoming some of the most valuable players on the defense.

 

Getting a stud like Payne doesn't prevent us from capitalizing on a strong DT class.  We can still take one in the first if someone special is there.  It's a rotation position and it's hard too have too much trench talent, especially on defense. 

 

But the other way to look at it is this is also very strong edge rusher and wide receiver class, and corner, tight end, and running back are really really good too.  Because we got Payne last year, we can take a special edge guy like Ferrell/Polite or corner like Greedy/Baker/Murphy if they are sitting there at fifteen, and still have a high quality interior DL anyway.  Or perhaps even better, we can take advantage of the depth of these positions and trade down and come away with a panoply.  The remarkable strength of the DE and DT class at the top is pushing a lot of guys who would normally be high picks down.  For example, there are a lot of big ass WRs who can run this year, who are probably going to go in the second.  There are three first round caliber RBs who are all probably going to go in the second.  Baker/Murphy/Greedy are all top ten caliber talents who might slip into the second half of the first.  There are starting caliber OLs who will be pushed into the second and third.  You could trade back in the first this year and pick up an extra second and perhaps get something like:

 

R1: Byron Murphy/DeAndre Baker

R2: David Montgomery/Josh Jacobs & Hakeem Butler/JJ Arcega-Whiteside

R3: Chris Lindstrom & Te'Von Coney.

 

That would be an unbelievably good class.  And we don't suffer from not having scored an interior DL.  The focus needs to be on getting the best players possible when we pick, not on what positions might be stronger next year.

[Going Commando]

21 minutes ago, skinny21 said:

BTW, been looking at backs and I’m firmly on board with your Montgomery hype.  I haven’t ranked them yet, but I noticed Walter has him ranked 18th, which is a complete joke.  CBS at least has him 3rd, which seems far closer to the truth.   

 

Montgomery is my bang the table player this year.  He is one of the guys I think the draft world is undervaluing the most.  I think he's the best non-QB offensive player in this year's class.  Thus I think he represents one of the best potential values in the class.

 

He doesn't look the part of a traditional workhorse star RB, like the Alabama guys do.  But he is.  I get the reason why people are missing on him this year because they were the same reasons I was missing on him before I took a really careful look at him.  Iowa State flew below the radar this season, he's got a weird build for a RB, and he doesn't have impressive top end speed.  He's flat-assed and his legs are a little slender and he has a super tapered build with wide shoulders, long arms, and a lot of torso.  The more traditional build is like Saquon's--higher cut, with huge thighs and bubble.  And his lack of top end speed will stop people from considering his potential without digging any deeper.  It's a lot easier to check for speed than it is to see the elite attributes that make Montgomery special--vision, patience, functional power, lateral explosiveness, and contact balance.  They make him the most creative runner in the class by far, and being powerful and creative and smart are traits that you can take with you to the NFL.  And it's also easy to miss that Montgomery is a clutch runner if you don't watch him in the context of a game.  Find the way to move the chains in bad leverage situations.  Punching it in on goal to go situations.  These are unheralded skills that are highly valuable, as James White proved this postseason.  And they are things Montgomery excels at.  When I say vague but meaningful things like "Montgomery is a great football player," I'm talking about situational stuff like this.

[redskindan07]

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000001015161/article/threeround-2019-nfl-mock-draft-10-kyler-murray-to-broncos

 

Extremely unlikely but I'd be hype for sure...

[Always A Commander Never A Captain]

47 minutes ago, redskindan07 said:

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000001015161/article/threeround-2019-nfl-mock-draft-10-kyler-murray-to-broncos

 

Extremely unlikely but I'd be hype for sure...

 

Interesting, he has us drafting Deionte Thompson...in the 3rd round.

 

One thing the Super Bowl showed, is how important the ability to get open is.  QB's pressured off their spots, throwing on the move, and accuracy falters.  It's harder to "throw your guy open" by putting the ball in a spot where the defender can't quite get a hand on it.  So someone like Edelman, with his quick feet, became a difference maker.

 

He has us drafting N'Keal Harry in the 2nd round, I'd rather go for Deebo Samuel in that spot.

 

What are people's thoughts of drafting OL in the 1st round?  I'm kind of down on it right now as the OL class seems to have more depth but lacks truly elite talent.  What's the talent difference between the OL in the 1st and the OL in the 2nd/3rd rounds?  Is it enough?  I'm going to lean towards no.

[Going Commando]

Looking at the Patriots salary cap, I can't believe how little they're spending on their OL considering the level that the unit played at this season.  They're exploiting some market inefficiencies to achieve this.  Hmmm...

 

I've got some thoughts about it that I'm working on that I'll post later.  But one of my conclusions is that I'm on board with trading Trent Williams now.  And I'm on board with Hockenson at 15.

[Anselmheifer]

1 minute ago, Alcoholic Zebra said:

 

Interesting, he has us drafting Deionte Thompson...in the 3rd round.

 

He has us drafting N'Keal Harry in the 2nd round, I'd rather go for Deebo Samuel in that spot.

 

Exactly my thought. Deebo should have been the pick there. I would be thrilled to have him. 

 

Also, picking Jonah Williams in the first, just to pick a tackle would be the ultimate need pick. With Ed Oliver, Devin White, TJ Hockenson, Deandre Baker, and, Byron Murphy on the board? Come on. Also, I love Murphy.

 

Would love Thompson in the 3rd. 

 

Volsmet, you said you hadn't scouted Murphy. Go watch some of him. Great ball skills. Hard hitter. Very instinctive. The stats guys love him. He isn't long, and I think he's more of a 4.5 guy than a 4.35 guy, but I think he's going to be really, really good. 

 

 

4 minutes ago, stevemcqueen1 said:

Looking at the Patriots salary cap, I can't believe how little they're spending on their OL considering the level that the unit played at this season.  They're exploiting some market inefficiencies to achieve this.  Hmmm...

 

I've got some thoughts about it that I'm working on that I'll post later.  But one of my conclusions is that I'm on board with trading Trent Williams now.  And I'm on board with Hockenson at 15.

 

I don't think We would get much for an older, often injured OT, with a sizable cap number. Trent is worth more as a tone setter than a 4th round pick, or whatever we'd get back. 

[Going Commando]

1 hour ago, Anselmheifer said:

I don't think We would get much for an older, often injured OT, with a sizable cap number. Trent is worth more as a tone setter than a 4th round pick, or whatever we'd get back. 

 

I think we can get more than a fourth for Trent.  New England paid a third rounder for Danny Shelton and a 5th rounder.  Trent is still one of the best OLs in the NFL.

 

Trent's AAV on his contract this season was fourth in the NFL.  Two of the guys who were ahead of him are Okung and Solder.  Looking at what the Giants and Chargers paid for mediocre starting bodies... there is going to be a market for Trent.  I think we could get a second round pick for him straight up.

 

It's clear we have zero chance at true competitiveness next season because of our QB situation.  You're right that a tone-setter like Trent is valuable, but getting another high draft pick is more valuable for us at this point.

[Anselmheifer]

5 minutes ago, stevemcqueen1 said:

 

I think we can get more than a fourth for Trent.  New England paid a third rounder for Danny Shelton and a 5th rounder.  Trent is still one of the best OLs in the NFL.

 

Trent's AAV on his contract this season was fourth in the NFL.  Two of the guys who were ahead of him are Okung and Solder.  Looking at what the Giants and Chargers paid for mediocre starting bodies... there is going to be a market for Trent.  I think we could get a second round pick for him straight up.

 

It's clear we have zero chance at true competitiveness next season because of our QB situation.  You're right that a tone-setter like Trent is valuable, but getting another high draft pick is more valuable for us at this point.

If we are setting value, I would trade him for a second, maybe for a 3rd. No way does our front office do that. They are not nearly forward thinking enough. 

I would rather have a healthy 2nd round LG on a rookie contract, than an older Trent Williams, in need of a new contract, and starting to break down. 

[Going Commando]

I would offer Trent to the Houston Texans for a second rounder.

[RWJ]

Love Williams and he's been a great OT for us but don't think the FO (Allen) trades him.  Now would definitely be the time to trade him as his value will only go down after the start of this season.

[dballer]

4 minutes ago, stevemcqueen1 said:

 

I think we can get more than a fourth for Trent.  New England paid a third rounder for Danny Shelton and a 5th rounder.  Trent is still one of the best OLs in the NFL.

 

Trent's AAV on his contract this season was fourth in the NFL.  Two of the guys who were ahead of him are Okung and Solder.  Looking at what the Giants and Chargers paid for mediocre starting bodies... there is going to be a market for Trent.  I think we could get a second round pick for him straight up.

 

It's clear we have zero chance at true competitiveness next season because of our QB situation.  You're right that a tone-setter like Trent is valuable, but getting another high draft pick is more valuable for us at this point.

 

Second rounders we have drafted since Trent has been here:

Jarvis Jenkins

David Amerson

Trent Murphy

Preston Smith

Sua Cravens

Ryan Anderson

Derrius Guice

 

Just Sayin...

 

 

[Anselmheifer]

8 minutes ago, dballer said:

 

Second rounders we have drafted since Trent has been here:

Jarvis Jenkins

David Amerson

Trent Murphy

Preston Smith

Sua Cravens

Ryan Anderson

Derrius Guice

 

Just Sayin...

 

 

It's amazing how well we've drafted in the first and how terribly we've drafted in the second. Lots of those picks were questionable at the time, not just in hind sight. Jarvis Jenkins was panned as a reach. Most people on the board thought Murphy and Anderson were reaches. 

[bowhunter]

39 minutes ago, Anselmheifer said:

I would rather have a healthy 2nd round LG on a rookie contract, than an older Trent Williams, in need of a new contract, and starting to break down. 

Truth there, Trent is on the way down sadly.  But now that you spent your Trent pick on a LG, who is gonna be your starting LT? I'd rather spent a first on a LT, move Trent to LG to prolong his career a little. Or if a true need top 10 talent falls to us (ie Murray) then spend a 2nd the best LT/LG available and see which combo works best

[Anselmheifer]

17 minutes ago, bowhunter said:

Truth there, Trent is on the way down sadly.  But now that you spent your Trent pick on a LG, who is gonna be your starting LT? I'd rather spent a first on a LT, move Trent to LG to prolong his career a little. Or if a true need top 10 talent falls to us (ie Murray) then spend a 2nd the best LT/LG available and see which combo works best

Guard is more physical, if anything. It just doesn't require the speed and mobility. Trent's problem isn't that he is losing mobility and getting beaten, it's that he misses games because of pain, swelling, etc. That isn't going to be any better at guard. 

My example of a LG was just an example and I chose guard because a second round guard is generally a very good guard. I'd take a player at any position. Hopefully Geron Christian can grow into a solid LT. 

[PlayAction]

15 minutes ago, Anselmheifer said:

My example of a LG was just an example and I chose guard because a second round guard is generally a very good guard. I'd take a player at any position. Hopefully Geron Christian can grow into a solid LT. 

 

First round - I prefer an OT who can start right away or who has the capability of playing G and transitioning to OT.  If you are looking for a possible starting Guard then 2nd round seems to be the right value point.   

[Going Commando]

This is the market inefficiency I think that the Patriots are exploiting to build an elite OL for cheap:

 

The NFL is overpaying for size and speed at OT when size is enough.

 

And I think this is the case because:

 

1 - There are fewer dominant speed rushers on the edge right now than edge rushers who are power guys.  And NFL teams are turning to stunting schemes to generate edge pressure, and relying more and more on A gap pressure.

 

2 - It's relatively easy to scheme in a six man protection that gives your LT help against a wide aligned speed rusher if you have a good tight end.  All you have to do is have the TE throw a chip on his way out to the flat and it buys your LT time to get into his pass set even when he's a lumberer. 

 

The Patriots use Gronk's blocking ability to protect Trent Brown, who can win after getting into his set with his length and power.

 

Trent Brown is 6'8 and 380 pounds.  They favored tall tackles before that, with guys like Vollmer and Solder playing well for them in the past.

 

I think we've already seen the effectiveness of length at OT winning for us because of the success that Morgan Moses and Ty Nsekhe have had for us.

 

I think that we can go into next season with Nsekhe as the starter and be OK.  I think we can buy some more time to develop Geron Christian and get him ready to play a serviceable LT, planning to help him extensively with 6 man protections.

 

This is why I'm really liking TJ Hockenson as a BPA meets need situation at 15.

 

Another market inefficiency I think the Patriots have identified:

 

OL should be thought of as a rotation position group and OL depth is nearly equivalent to DL depth in value.

 

We're not the only ones who've suffered horrific attrition on our OL, it's very common.  That's why you don't want to get stuck paying too much for your starters.  You can't have your season go down the toilet when an expensive starter gets hurt.

 

I'm looking at the Patriots depth chart and I notice that they're picking OLs or trading picks for OLs most offseasons.  I'm for BPA, but in the middle rounds, most of the times you're picking from a mob of prospects with similar grades.  In these situations, I'd be weighting the OL positions more heavily than other positions.

 

I think if we can free up money from our OL and still field a top end unit, then that would give us the ability to absorb the devastating Alex Smith contract and keep our DL in tact.  And eventually spend some money on the secondary and LBers and pay for another QB.

[Always A Commander Never A Captain]

Steve, you make a compelling argument.

 

The Patriots do throw draft capital at the OL, but lately it doesn't seem like they give the unit much in the way of dollars.  Here's the Patriots rankings for how much they spend compared to the rest of the NFL:

 

2019 Projection - 22nd

2018 - 29th

2017 - 23rd

2016 - 10th

2015 - 16th

2014 - 28th

2013 - 8th

 

Their LT, Trent Brown, is a Free Agent.  So I'm curious what happens with him.

 

Quote

OL should be thought of as a rotation position group and OL depth is nearly equivalent to DL depth in value.

 

There are always going to be 5 OL on the field and 6 non-OL.  I think it makes sense to always draft at least one OL every year (something we haven't done).  This kind of baffles me since our OL draft picks have generally been good ones.  Long, Moses, Roullier, and Scherff have been good picks for us.  Christian is undecided.  Kouandjio was a bust.  Reiter has been injury prone, but has started for both the Browns and Chiefs.  Reiter was a 7th rounder, and given how often those picks fail, I'd call Reiter a good pick all-in-all.

[Skinsinparadise]

Yeah I've been for awhile now on Hockenson including I think I'd favor him too with our pick.   He'd help the run game, pass game, and make it more difficult for opponent's to diagnose what's coming because we wouldn't have to play TE packages as much (Sprinkle versus Reed, etc).      If he shines in the combine as some suspect he might -- I'll start worrying that he will be gone before our pick.  Right now though the math seems to work in our favor.

 

 

 

 

[MartinC]

2 hours ago, Anselmheifer said:

 Hopefully Geron Christian can grow into a solid LT. 

 

Hopefully I can get a date with Katy Perry. But here we are.

[KillBill26]

5 hours ago, RWJ said:

Love Williams and he's been a great OT for us but don't think the FO (Allen) trades him.  Now would definitely be the time to trade him as his value will only go down after the start of this season.

I agree that Allen won't make this move, nor would he trade Norman or kerrigan or Reed.  It's been discussed how Allen and jay have sold Dan on the point that the Redskins aren't that far away, that they haven't made the playoffs only due to poor injury luck.  They won't say that then turn around and start trading off players that can help us win now for draft picks, even though these are the moves that would be best for us long-term.