2018 Free Agency Database - (Signed: WILLIAMS - McPhee - Scandrick - P-Rich) - (Lauvao, Bergstrom, Nsehke, Taylor, Z. Brown and Quick re-signed)

[bobandweave]

19 minutes ago, Master Blaster said:

 

 

Well now you’ve changed the goal posts. You went from top ten to top 16. Even then it’s not 100%. It’s only disproving your point more. 

 

You said this 

 

The trend has been less than 50% of the top running teams go to the playoffs.

 

After I pointed out what the truth is you just go back to being aggressive with your tone with me and continue to pretend you are right when clearly you are misguided and ill informed about the topic

 

 

modern history tells us you have a better chance of making the playoffs when you’re not in the top 10 in rushing. 

 

No it clearly does not. And the results of the 2000 Ravens has nothing to do with the "recent trends" in 2018. Think what you want, it's a free country. To me your wrong and this is pointless. I only engaged this morning because you seemed so full of yourself when you posted this to me

 

You guys are too easy sometimes.

 

As its funny to see a stranger post that thinking how right he is when he's clearly wrong. Facts are out there, believe what you want. Peace

 

[Morneblade]

27 minutes ago, Master Blaster said:

 

The 2000 Baltimore Ravens won the Super Bowl because?

 

 

Once again, a Defense that might have been the best ever, AND a nasty rushing attack. Not quite the 85' Bears, but they had Jamal Lewis and his 1364 as a rook, AND Priest Holmes for a additional 588. They had the 5th ranked rushing attack.

 

Here is where your stance is going to fall apart. You've taken maybe the 2 best Defenses in the modern era and used them to say, we don't need a rushing attack that is all-world. The question is, do you think that our defense, is actually the caliber of the 2000 Ravens or the 85' Bears? Because if you do, I have a bridge in Brooklyn to sell you.

 

We MIGHT have a top 10 Defense there year. MIGHT. And a lot of good things are going to have to happen to get there. But I will tell you one thing, this isn't set up to be in the conversation with the 85' Bears and 00' Ravens. Not even close.

 

And we're going to need a lot more help to even get to the playoffs, not even talking about the Superbowl. Defense doesn't get it done by itself.

 

Now Let's talk about Alex Smith. He is no gunslinger. He's had a good/great rushing attack and good/great D his entire career. He's not the guy to ball out for 5k, 35+TDs. Not gonna happen. He's gonna need help on the offensive side.

 

 

 

[OVCChairman]

I'm sorry but we're nowhere NEAR the 85 bears or 00 ravens on EITHER side of the ball.  I think our rush offense has a chance to be OK, and by OK, I mean we can be somewhere better than 20th... but to think that this team will have ANY chance of any REAL success without a really good run game as a whole is unfair.  Sure, there are teams that don't 'NEED' to be the best at running the football, but we're not the Patriots with Brady and Belechick.  Outside of that, the teams that are in the mix have good run games.  

[Morneblade]

3 minutes ago, OVCChairman said:

I'm sorry but we're nowhere NEAR the 85 bears or 00 ravens on EITHER side of the ball.  I think our rush offense has a chance to be OK, and by OK, I mean we can be somewhere better than 20th... but to think that this team will have ANY chance of any REAL success without a really good run game as a whole is unfair.  Sure, there are teams that don't 'NEED' to be the best at running the football, but we're not the Patriots with Brady and Belechick.  Outside of that, the teams that are in the mix have good run games.  

 

In other words, we need to be a better football team in several areas to have a chance. Exactly what I'm thinking.

[OVCChairman]

3 minutes ago, Morneblade said:

 

In other words, we need to be a better football team in several areas to have a chance. Exactly what I'm thinking.

 

 

To have a realistic chance.. sure.  Weird things happen all the time, but I'm not going to be acting like I'm confident this team can win a superbowl this season.  There are 31 teams that DONT win a SB every year, and a good number of THOSE teams are built a bit better than we are.  Doesn't mean I'm not gonna root for my team, and that I'm not fan, but to expect I can go to hollywood and see Heidi Klum crossing the street, and she'll fall in love with me at first site, well that would be unlikely and unrealistic.  

[Die Hard]

13 minutes ago, Morneblade said:

Now Let's talk about Alex Smith. He is no gunslinger. He's had a good/great rushing attack and good/great D his entire career. He's not the guy to ball out for 5k, 35+TDs. Not gonna happen. He's gonna need help on the offensive side.

 

Maybe he’s never been asked to?! Maybe the coaches had a different plan. Who knows.

 

But what we do know with Gruden.... he loves to throw the football. Quality of the OL or WR be dammed..... heck, even the QB (Hogan). Gruden don’t care if he’s pulling guys just off the street during the week.... he’s gonna throw the ball. He doesn’t care about WR separation. Throw the ball and give the receivers a chance to make a play.

 

Smith is going to have a career year... just by sheer number of opportunities alone ? 

[Morneblade]

1 minute ago, Die Hard said:

 

Maybe he’s never been asked to?! Maybe the coaches had a different plan. Who knows.

 

But what we do know with Gruden.... he loves to throw the football. Quality of the OL or WR be dammed..... heck, even the QB (Hogan). Gruden don’t care if he’s pulling guys just off the street during the week.... he’s gonna throw the ball. He doesn’t care about WR separation. Throw the ball and give the receivers a chance to make a play.

 

Smith is going to have a career year... just by sheer number of opportunities alone ? 

 

Nah. I think he will have a lot more INT's this year though. And if Reed gets hurt, he's going to have a really tough time. KC actually threw the ball more than we did last year. Granted, it was only 3 more passes, but still. Let's not make Alex Smith what he isn't.

[Skinsinparadise]

7 minutes ago, OVCChairman said:

I'm sorry but we're nowhere NEAR the 85 bears or 00 ravens on EITHER side of the ball.  I think our rush offense has a chance to be OK, and by OK, I mean we can be somewhere better than 20th... but to think that this team will have ANY chance of any REAL success without a really good run game as a whole is unfair.  Sure, there are teams that don't 'NEED' to be the best at running the football, but we're not the Patriots with Brady and Belechick.  Outside of that, the teams that are in the mix have good run games.  

 

Tonight should be interesting.  Some here say well one of these RBs might blossom this season.  I don't rule that out.  But like anything its about playing the odds.  

 

It's like baseball -- players tend to find their way to their typical mean -- they might start off hot or cold but end up where they typically average and on occasion have a career year or a down year which defies the mean.  

 

With that in mind. Playing the odds at RB.

 

Kelley:  My problem with him is he's never been the guy -- not in college, not in the pros.  One 100 yard game in the pros and college combined.  And when I slowed down coaches tape and watched him in the off season, I wasn't blown away by him.  Upside is he doesn't have a lot of wear and tear and supposedly he's trimmer and quicker. 

 

Perine:  He wasn't one of the guys I touted before the draft last year but I liked the pick when they made it.  A guy with that size and that strong and can catch passes intrigued me.  But if the beat guys are correct that the coaches aren't in love with the dude -- that makes me pause.  I wasn't blown away by him last year -- I certainly can see him ending up a bust.  But he might work out, too.  So for me he is the ultimate wildcard in the mix. 

 

Bryon Marshall:  intrigues me the most.  He has the size to be an every day back.  He can catch.  He has some wiggle. Some speed. He has a small sample size so it tough to hang your hat on it -- but maybe.

 

Bibbs -- all the same points I made about Marshall except he doesn't have his size. 

 

 

[OVCChairman]

4 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

Tonight should be interesting.  Some here say well one of these RBs might blossom this season.  I don't rule that out.  But like anything its about playing the odds.  

 

It's like baseball -- players tend to find their way to their typical mean -- they might start off hot or cold but end up where they typically average and on occasion have a career year or a down year which defies the mean.  

 

With that in mind. Playing the odds at RB.

 

Kelley:  My problem with him is he's never been the guy -- not in college, not in the pros.  One 100 yard game in the pros and college combined.  And when I slowed down coaches tape and watched him in the off season, I wasn't blown away by him.  Upside is he doesn't have a lot of wear and tear and supposedly he's trimmer and quicker. 

 

Perine:  He wasn't one of the guys I touted before the draft last year but I liked the pick when they made it.  A guy with that size and that strong and can catch passes intrigued me.  But if the beat guys are correct that the coaches aren't in love with the dude -- that makes me pause.  I wasn't blown away by him last year -- I certainly can see him ending up a bust.  But he might work out, too.  So for me he is the ultimate wildcard in the mix. 

 

Bryon Marshall:  intrigues me the most.  He has the size to be an every day back.  He can catch.  He has some wiggle. Some speed. He has a small sample size so it tough to hang your hat on it -- but maybe.

 

Bibbs -- all the same points I made about Marshall except he doesn't have his size. 

 

 

 

 

Tonight is huge.  I don't want to see the RBs of old where on any given play, any given RB is on the field.  I honestly think thats what killed Morris here.  He was a rhythm guy, and needed reps.  He often got better in the 2nd half.  I want to see Perine get 2 - 3 possessions at least.  Same for Kelley... and I want them to be getting multiple carries (hopefully we make enough 1st downs for that to happen) in each possession.  I have been a major advocate for not writing off Perine yet, as I personally think he's got enough to be a good back... not elite, but good.  I don't need to see CT for 1 play tonight.  He may be cleared, but I wouldn't play him til next week.  I want to have legit tape on these guys NOW.  I also want to see Marshall get a chance to win the starting job.  Like you said, he's got size, speed, and can catch.  I know we have CT as a receiving threat, but we HAVE to use other guys in the passing game, or we're going to make it VERY clear what our plans our with our personnel on the field.  Marshall could be a weapon waiting for a shot.  

[Skinsinparadise]

8 minutes ago, OVCChairman said:

 

 

Tonight is huge.  I don't want to see the RBs of old where on any given play, any given RB is on the field.  I honestly think thats what killed Morris here.  He was a rhythm guy, and needed reps.  He often got better in the 2nd half.  I want to see Perine get 2 - 3 possessions at least.  Same for Kelley... and I want them to be getting multiple carries (hopefully we make enough 1st downs for that to happen) in each possession.  I have been a major advocate for not writing off Perine yet, as I personally think he's got enough to be a good back... not elite, but good.  I don't need to see CT for 1 play tonight.  He may be cleared, but I wouldn't play him til next week.  I want to have legit tape on these guys NOW.  I also want to see Marshall get a chance to win the starting job.  Like you said, he's got size, speed, and can catch.  I know we have CT as a receiving threat, but we HAVE to use other guys in the passing game, or we're going to make it VERY clear what our plans our with our personnel on the field.  Marshall could be a weapon waiting for a shot.  

 

Yeah I got a really odd feeling about how the running game will shake out.  My take is if the beat guys are right and Kelley is behind the scenes the runaway choice to be RB #1 -- and don't believe the token rhetoric about how everyone has a chance -- then I think we are going to be right back to having about the 30th best run game in the league.

 

If Marshall on the other hand or Bibbs gets the nod then I am not per se optimistic but I am much more open minded that anything is possible. As for Perine, usually the big bruising running backs need multiple reps to wear down a defense so I don't think he's the guy in a rotation (even though that's what he did in college at times, ironically) but if he's a starter --I'd say maybe.  If I am pushed one way or another on Perine, I am not really optimistic or pessimistic -- but three different beat guys saying last week that the coaching staff isn't in love with Perine and that was part of them being determined to find a new RB in the draft this year -- does make me pause some about him.    

[mudpig]

23 minutes ago, Morneblade said:

 

Nah. I think he will have a lot more INT's this year though. And when Reed gets hurt, he's going to have a really tough time. KC actually threw the ball more than we did last year. Granted, it was only 3 more passes, but still. Let's not make Alex Smith what he isn't.

 

had to fix.  bolded it for you.  It won't take him long, don't worry.  Looking forward to Slow Rob and Pissrine's amazing 2 yd runs tonight!  

 

Brighter note. Hoping Bibbs emerges.  Like that guy.  Or Marshall.  

[OVCChairman]

7 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

Yeah I got a really odd feeling about how the running game will shake out.  My take is if the beat guys are right and Kelley is behind the scenes the runaway choice to be RB #1 -- and don't believe the token rhetoric about how everyone has a chance -- then I think we are going to be right back to having about the 30th best run game in the league.

 

If Marshall on the other hand or Bibbs gets the nod then I am not per se optimistic but I am much more open minded that anything is possible. As for Perine, usually the big bruising running backs need multiple reps to wear down a defense so I don't think he's the guy in a rotation (even though that's what he did in college at times, ironically) but if he's a starter --I'd say maybe.  If I am pushed one way or another on Perine, I am not really optimistic or pessimistic -- but three different beat guys saying last week that the coaching staff isn't in love with Perine and that was part of them being determined to find a new RB in the draft this year -- does make me pause some about him.    

 

 

Well part of me worries about what the expectation for Perine and Kelley are.  EVERY team wants a bell cow guy who averages 4.5 ypc for 1250 yds and 10 TDs.  Problem is, those guys aren't out there.  If we can get 4.0 ypc out of our RBs this year, I think we are doing ok.  I'd guess that would put us somewhere near middle of the pack in rankings across the board.  If we can do that, I feel like we'll be in almost every game.  I don't expect us to find Kareem Hunt or Alvin Kamara hidden somewhere on our roster.  What I do expect is to see patience, and deliberate running.  I don't want to see hesitation, there is a big difference... 

[skinny21]

17 minutes ago, mudpig said:

 

had to fix.  bolded it for you.  It won't take him long, don't worry.  Looking forward to Slow Rob and Pissrine's amazing 2 yd runs tonight!  

 

Brighter note. Hoping Bibbs emerges.  Like that guy.  Or Marshall.  

I don’t have any good reason to feel this way, but I think Reed will surprise us this year, and I think our run game will be pretty decent.  I expect to be in the minority on both counts though (for good reason).  

 

I’m also intrigued by Marshall (and Bibbs).  

 

Wish we could swing carrying a FB, but seems highly unlikely.  The one way I could see it is if we had Kelley starting, and Marshall was the backup for both Kelley and Thompson (which might not be a bad way to go).  

[OVCChairman]

12 minutes ago, skinny21 said:

I don’t have any good reason to feel this way, but I think Reed will surprise us this year, and I think our run game will be pretty decent.  I expect to be in the minority on both counts though (for good reason).  

 

I’m also intrigued by Marshall (and Bibbs).  

 

Wish we could swing carrying a FB, but seems highly unlikely.  The one way I could see it is if we had Kelley starting, and Marshall was the backup for both Kelley and Thompson (which might not be a bad way to go).  

 

Something I've missed for years... I loved watchin DY lead the way... and don't get me started on BIG MIKE!  I think we're too deep at RB, WR, and CB for it to happen though.  Those battles likely force us to decide between a 4th RB, 6th CB, 6th WR, or FB... and it's likely that FB is the first one crossed off.  

[dckey]

3 hours ago, bobandweave said:

 

Going simply by a couple of points

 I think the answer to the bolded is they thought so so yes

By this logic Either Trent or Moses are bad they spent a 3rd on a LT.

 

Just because you want to upgrade a position does not mean that the backup players are terrible.  A lot of you act like Kelley isn't even an NFL RB, like he would be ranked 50th in the league.  

[Skinsinparadise]

54 minutes ago, OVCChairman said:

 

 

Well part of me worries about what the expectation for Perine and Kelley are.  EVERY team wants a bell cow guy who averages 4.5 ypc for 1250 yds and 10 TDs.  Problem is, those guys aren't out there.  If we can get 4.0 ypc out of our RBs this year, I think we are doing ok.  I'd guess that would put us somewhere near middle of the pack in rankings across the board.  If we can do that, I feel like we'll be in almost every game.  I don't expect us to find Kareem Hunt or Alvin Kamara hidden somewhere on our roster.  What I do expect is to see patience, and deliberate running.  I don't want to see hesitation, there is a big difference... 

 

Maybe.  The problem to me is the NFC is stacked, I think the East is good, too.  I can see this team similar to last year being competitive and a tough out.  But too many teams IMO have a more talented roster where its tough for me to see any easy 10-6 window.  It feels very much like an 8-8 season with the usual tease at some point during the season and usual slump.  It's rare for an 8-8 team to get there on an even ride.   If we were in the AFC, I'd feel differently.  But I don't think this roster has been built up to be great or for that matter very good.  IMO it's good.  But IMO there are too many very good teams stacked ahead of us.  So to me an ordinary run game I don't think will be enough to go to the playoffs.  My optimism was much higher with Guice.  And that's not because one player is the be all and end all but because that one player IMO elevated a bad unit into a very good unit.  So the drop off is huge. 

 

And while a couple of people see me as an Alex Smith hater because I don't see him as a Drew Brees level stud or believe that he is everything Kirk wasn't and more. But I am far from down on Alex.  I do think he's a good QB but not the type of QB who could just carry a team on his back without a running game.  And in his defense, I see few QBs who can carry a team without a running game.   But again that's me just playing the odds -- past is prologue. Anything is possible. 

 

Edit:  I just heard Craig Hoffman says he doesn't think Alex plays tonight.   I hope he's wrong.  Our QBs don't seem to get the reps in preseason as some other guys get on other teams -- maybe there is a connection to the QBs starting off slow during the season?

[skinny21]

15 minutes ago, OVCChairman said:

 

Something I've missed for years... I loved watchin DY lead the way... and don't get me started on BIG MIKE!  I think we're too deep at RB, WR, and CB for it to happen though.  Those battles likely force us to decide between a 4th RB, 6th CB, 6th WR, or FB... and it's likely that FB is the first one crossed off.  

Yep.  I did just think of one more way we could potentially carry a FB (stemming from your Sellers comment), and that’s if Wellman can fill in a bit at TE.  Maybe fill-in is the wrong term, but act as a 4th/emergency TE.  I’d say the odds have gone up slightly with Davis getting hurt, but you could argue they decreased with Guice’s injury.  Maybe u pa bit since the ground game is likely to be stressed more this year (in general, but also with Smith on board).  

 

Either way, I’m assuming he (Wellman) is a serious long shot to make it.  

 

I will add this:

Guessing 9 OL, 2 qbs, at least 5 receivers, at least 3 backs and 3 TEs, which leaves 3 spots free if we keep 25 on offense.  I suppose, in that scenario, Wellman could take the place of a 4th TE and we could still keep an additional wr and back.  Of course, my hunch is that we keep 24 on offense instead....

 

Ok, I’ve convinced myself to up Wellman’s chances at making the squad at bit, lol... though I still assume he doesn’t make it.  

[NickyJ]

4 minutes ago, skinny21 said:

Ok, I’ve convinced myself to up Wellman’s chances at making the squad at bit, lol... though I still assume he doesn’t make it.  

Your assumption is correct. He got cut last Saturday.

[bobandweave]

17 minutes ago, dckey said:

By this logic Either Trent or Moses are bad they spent a 3rd on a LT.

 

Not the same to me.

 

For one the front office didn't emphasis the need for a LT like they did RB. For two we need depth at LT not a starter. And to me most importantly Trent Williams is 30 years old entering his 8th NFL season. If this doesn't make sense read up:

 

https://www.milehighreport.com/2017/2/27/14724674/age-wall-for-offensive-tackles-nfl

 

Conclusion

There are instances of offensive tackles continuing to play at a high level in their mid 30s, but they are few and far between. Most elite offensive tackles start to decline at roughly the age of 32 if they haven’t already. At that point most of these men have been playing tackle football for 25 or more years

 

They drafted the LT so they have him when father time catches up to TW, it does to everyone eventually. 

 

 

 

[OVCChairman]

1 minute ago, skinny21 said:

Yep.  I did just think of one more way we could potentially carry a FB (stemming from your Sellers comment), and that’s if Wellman can fill in a bit at TE.  Maybe fill-in is the wrong term, but act as a 4th/emergency TE.  I’d say the odds have gone up slightly with Davis getting hurt, but you could argue they decreased with Guice’s injury.  Maybe u pa bit since the ground game is likely to be stressed more this year (in general, but also with Smith on board).  

 

Either way, I’m assuming he (Wellman) is a serious long shot to make it.  

 

I will add this:

Guessing 9 OL, 2 qbs, at least 5 receivers, at least 3 backs and 3 TEs, which leaves 3 spots free if we keep 25 on offense.  I suppose, in that scenario, Wellman could take the place of a 4th TE and we could still keep an additional wr and back.  Of course, my hunch is that we keep 24 on offense instead....

 

Ok, I’ve convinced myself to up Wellman’s chances at making the squad at bit, lol... though I still assume he doesn’t make it.  

 

 

As much as I'd love that... I can't see us carrying 5 WR and 3 RBs.  Between J.Doc and P.Rich's injury history, and CT being a lock for the 3rd down spot, we will either carry 6 WRs or 4 RBs... or both.  

[bobandweave]

19 minutes ago, dckey said:

Just because you want to upgrade a position does not mean that the backup players are terrible.  A lot of you act like Kelley isn't even an NFL RB, like he would be ranked 50th in the league.  

 

No your right wanting to upgrade doesn't make a guy terrible. Ranks like they got last year says they are terrible:

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/rb

 

 

[JSSkinz]

People seem to think our O line will be healthy just because. Trent said the other day on the JP podcast he will be playing with pain for the duration, and Moses already has bad ankles that don't seem to heal.

 

I would be shocked if those 2 played 16 games, we need another starting caliber RB next offseason, you need 2 these days so you don't go into a tailspin when one goes down.

[Skinsinparadise]

I just looked up their PFF scores

 

The one with the highest score was Bibbs -- 61.  On PFF metrics that makes him below average.

Then Perine at 58.5, on PFF metrics that's the category of poor

Then Marshall is at 51.6

Then Kelley at 51.2

 

We talked a little about Darkwa, he rated 60.3

 

 

[dckey]

2 hours ago, bobandweave said:

 

No your right wanting to upgrade doesn't make a guy terrible. Ranks like they got last year says they are terrible:

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/rb

 

 

So Rob Kelley injured in 2017 is terrible, but according to YOUR link when healthy in 2016 he was ranked 17th, above Melvin Gordon, D Murray, and a host of other people!!!!!   But that doesn't matter, because he's just terrible.  But before you take me out of context I do not believe he is anything close to Guice.  I just don't think it's the end of the season because of Guice!!!!  Point being would you rather have Guice with a banged up oline, or Kelley with a healthy oline (I know we all want Guice and the oline), but who would produce more?

[Morneblade]

18 minutes ago, dckey said:

Point being would you rather have Guice with a banged up oline, or Kelley with a healthy oline (I know we all want Guice and the oline), but who would produce more?

 

Guice. Last year, when Guice was banged up, and his OL was banged up, he was pretty good, even if it was a down year for him. And once he gets to the 2nd level, he's more dangerous than Kelly could ever dream of being. Guice not only has great vision, can find a crease and exploit it and then explode. Kelly, can't do it. Guice will make more out of less. So, even if Kelly has better, more consistent holes, Guice wins.