Presidential Election: 11/3/20 ---Now the President Elect Joe Biden Thread

[thegreaterbuzzette]

Just now, clietas said:

 

There's no evidence of voter impersonation tho. 

And there's no evidence people would vote for someone on the opposite party in an attempt to "help" their party. 

[Captain Wiggles]

4 minutes ago, thegreaterbuzzette said:

 

Since y'all love to quote stats that say "voting fraud is practically non-existent". Who has a stat for how many people who vote, don't have a photo ID?

I like facts, not anecdotes. 

 

Uh google?

[thegreaterbuzzette]

9 minutes ago, clietas said:

 

Uh google?

yup. 

 

"Meredith and his colleagues estimate that 0.3 to 0.6 percent of Michigan voters didn’t have photo IDs when they showed up to vote during the 2016 general election."

https://journalistsresource.org/studies/politics/elections/voter-photo-id-law-research/ 

 

Keep in mind that was in a state that does NOT require an ID, simply asks if the voter has one. Would it not follow that this tiny population, if they were wanting to ensure they could vote, and was now required - would obtain an ID?

 

State IDs in Michigan are free for those who need it. I believe one of the last proposals I saw on this, actually included a budget to subsidize the cost of said IDs for those in need. Take politics out of it, we need to as a society make sure everyone has EASY access to obtaining an ID. Without it, people in need of many programs are in eligible. Let alone, unable to secure employment or be identified easily if something was to happen and they were not around people who knew them. 

[The Evil Genius]

Since the modern GOP doesn't want people (especially minorities) to vote...or ever register to vote, why would they want to make it easier for people to get IDs?

 

 

[Captain Wiggles]

From the article above.

 

Quote

This evidence supports the notion that strict voter identification laws prevent otherwise eligible individuals from voting, and have disproportionately negative impacts on minority citizens,” write the study’s two authors, Bernard L. Fraga of Indiana University and Michael G. Miller of Barnard College.

 

[thegreaterbuzzette]

So is this how this works? Someone points out a flaw in your logic. And instead of staying the course and discussing the true argument.....we make bold statements to try to bait me down a rabbit hole? Stop assuming that just because someone has a different view than you, that they are 180 degree from you. 

I'm smarter than I look. 

[Momma There Goes That Man]

6 minutes ago, thegreaterbuzzette said:

yup. 

 

"Meredith and his colleagues estimate that 0.3 to 0.6 percent of Michigan voters didn’t have photo IDs when they showed up to vote during the 2016 general election."

https://journalistsresource.org/studies/politics/elections/voter-photo-id-law-research/ 

 

Keep in mind that was in a state that does NOT require an ID, simply asks if the voter has one. Would it not follow that this tiny population, if they were wanting to ensure they could vote, and was now required - would obtain an ID?

 

State IDs in Michigan are free for those who need it. I believe one of the last proposals I saw on this, actually included a budget to subsidize the cost of said IDs for those in need. Take politics out of it, we need to as a society make sure everyone has EASY access to obtaining an ID. Without it, people in need of many programs are in eligible. Let alone, unable to secure employment or be identified easily if something was to happen and they were not around people who knew them. 

 

That’s not really a good study since there is no way to track how many people just stayed home because they didnt have an ID. It also shows only a handful of states even keep track of how many people voted without an ID. There aren’t good statsistics on the voting side if it.

 

There are good statistics on what percentage specific demographics have valid forms of ID. Not surprisingly, young, poor and minorities are all among the groups with the highest percentages of people that do not have valid IDs. Voter ID laws directly impact these demographic’s ability to vote. 

 

It must purely be a coincidence that the required document to vote be an item that demographics that generally skew heavily democratic do not have. 

 

 

[Hersh]

Voter ID and open primaries are two different issues entirely. As a Democrat, I don't want people in the GOP to vote in the Democratic primary. I'm fine with independents, but if you want a say in a party, you should generally have to join that party. Having said that, I don't mind top two open primaries which ensures people won't waste their vote trying to sabotage another candidate. 

 

I'm against voter ID. The amount of people that can't vote cause they don't have the proper ID vs the number of people that impersonate someone else at a polling location is a gigantic number vs a minuscule number. Furthermore, we saw the real election fraud that takes place first hand in NC this last election cycle. The only time voter ID should be required is same day voter registration. (registration and voting on the same day)

[Captain Wiggles]

Flaw? I hate voter suppression and manipulation. That's a flaw I'll gladly live with.

[Hersh]

Maybe we need an election rules thread for all this stuff?

[thegreaterbuzzette]

Personally, I could make an argument on both sides for or against voter ID. I think the issue around IDs should not be focused solely on elections. I think having an ID card is something that everyone in the country needs. It should be easy to get and free. They should find a way to weave it into public health and education IMO. (oh how liberal conservative paradox of me....)

 

I didn't mean to go off topic. I more was pointing out the irony of using the same argument to contradict opposite things. Far right screams voter fraud, far left says "doesn't happen". Far left screams voter suppression, far right says "vote integrity".  

It all starts local. I wish more people were involved in their local political scene....making changes there - it's the long game, but it would yield the needed steps to get where I think the majority of the country wants to be. 

 

This Hot/Cold mentality is nuts. And whenever someone like me even tries to bring a middle of the road view point, we get shunned from both sides. As much as its fun to be labeled a bleeding heart and a cold hearted conservative within 5 min of each other......time to call it a night. 

[Hersh]

2 minutes ago, thegreaterbuzzette said:

Personally, I could make an argument on both sides for or against voter ID. I think the issue around IDs should not be focused solely on elections. I think having an ID card is something that everyone in the country needs. It should be easy to get and free. They should find a way to weave it into public health and education IMO. (oh how liberal conservative paradox of me....)

 

I didn't mean to go off topic. I more was pointing out the irony of using the same argument to contradict opposite things. Far right screams voter fraud, far left says "doesn't happen". Far left screams voter suppression, far right says "vote integrity".  

It all starts local. I wish more people were involved in their local political scene....making changes there - it's the long game, but it would yield the needed steps to get where I think the majority of the country wants to be. 

 

This Hot/Cold mentality is nuts. And whenever someone like me even tries to bring a middle of the road view point, we get shunned from both sides. As much as its fun to be labeled a bleeding heart and a cold hearted conservative within 5 min of each other......time to call it a night. 

 

I hope you didn't view my post as shunning you. There are a lot of things we could do as a society to get to national IDs or something of the sort. I think those of us on the left are skeptical of that cause we've seen GOP reps in our states (in NC for reference) go to extreme lengths (laws deemed unconstitutional) to limit voting and to ensure their stay in power. BTW, it's not always the case of a person needing an ID, sometimes it's an issue of trying to get a new ID and all the obstacles people face. Some pretty crazy stories of the lengths people had to go. 

[nonniey]

56 minutes ago, thegreaterbuzzette said:

And there's no evidence people would vote for someone on the opposite party in an attempt to "help" their party. 

?????? Did you miss my suggestion to ask Trythebeal? He's a Trump voter from the 2016 Virginia primaries.  His is the one vote that gave Trump all the momentum he needed to win the Republican nomination and ultimately the Presidency. Yes he is the Kingmaker that gave us Trump.🤣 

[The Evil Genius]

Worth mentioning, many state DMVs are already strained beyond their capabilities. There is a practical reason not to require IDs for everyone (not to mention why non-drivers would ever want to deal with the DMV to begin with).

[Larry]

1 hour ago, thegreaterbuzzette said:

 

Since y'all love to quote stats that say "voting fraud is practically non-existent". Who has a stat for how many people who vote, don't have a photo ID?

I like facts, not anecdotes. 

 

Well, this 2014 article has lots of information. I'd say the biggest was that a Texas court ruled that 608,000 Texans registered to vote lack acceptable forms of ID. But there's lots more in there. 

[88Comrade2000]

10 hours ago, No Excuses said:

 

Like PB said, the only way to reign this courts power is to expand its numbers with less crappy judges. 

 

It’s a fairly convincing argument to make to voters, who’ve seen the power of their vote shrink directly because of the Roberts court. 

 

Our fundamental democratic system was transformed into an oligarchic dumpster fire because of this court.

Term limits should also be added. That might take an amendment but having lifetime judges isn't working either.

12 hours ago, Momma There Goes That Man said:

Mayor Pete is my first choice but I don’t think he has a real chance as a gay man. I love everything about the guy tho 

 

After that I think a Beto/Harris ticket is the best option. 

 

Not in 2020.  Honestly, until Millennials and GenZers are the majority of the voting public; alot of what needs to be changed, won't happen.

[Larry]

50 minutes ago, Hersh said:

 

I hope you didn't view my post as shunning you. There are a lot of things we could do as a society to get to national IDs or something of the sort. I think those of us on the left are skeptical of that cause we've seen GOP reps in our states (in NC for reference) go to extreme lengths (laws deemed unconstitutional) to limit voting and to ensure their stay in power. BTW, it's not always the case of a person needing an ID, sometimes it's an issue of trying to get a new ID and all the obstacles people face. Some pretty crazy stories of the lengths people had to go. 

 

A lot of people like to say that requiring a DL is OK "because it's free if you're poor". But what they're saying is that, if you gather the seven pieces of paper the state demands, then the last piece of paper is free. 

 

A decade or so ago, I decided to get photo ID for my mom. (I had intentionally let her DL expire, because I didn't want her thinking she could drive. But I wanted her to have ID, so that she could sign notarized documents.)

 

She's born in the US, has owned the same house for 30 years. Has bank and credit accounts. Taxes, Social Security, Medicare, Federal retirement. She had a fixed address, fixed phone number. I had her Power of Attorney, a fax machine, Internet access, and the time to work on it. 

 

It took over a year and a half, and over $350. 

 

In fact, after I'd been fighting the bureaucracy for a year or so, I even found a really old, state-certified copy of her birth certificate. 

 

Now, a big part of the delay was that Oklahoma had her last name misspelled (or her family changed the way they spelled it). Caused about a year's worth of back and forth before I could get a new copy of her birth certificate. 

 

OTOH, she got lucky in some ways, too. 

 

In order to get ID in Florida, one of the things you have to have is proof of your SSN. In those days, I was allowed to bring in her 1099, to do that. Shortly thereafter, they changed the rule to require an original SS card. This is important, because to get an SS card, you have to have current state issued ID. I was able to use her 1099 to get photo ID, then use the photo ID to get her SS card. 

 

OTOH, try to imagine she was a homeless person who had to do all that on her own. With no fixed address, fax machine, 1099s, pay stubs or utility bills. (Let alone $350). 

[88Comrade2000]

16 hours ago, NoCalMike said:

If the White working class think an elitist NY conman is looking out for them based on incoherent campaign speeches, then there is little any Democrat can do to sway them.  The pathway for victory for the Dems in 2020 is energize their base to increase the turnout and sway the folks who voted for Trump because they were fooled into thinking he was some kind of "outsider" that was going to "shake things up."

The only people who voted for Trump that might switch their vote, are Bernie Supporters.  Everyone else that voted for Trump, when push comes to shove; will vote for Trump again.

 

Your winning coalition is this:  The Hillary voters from 2016 + The Obama voters, who sat out 2012 and 2016 + people who just never vote or rarely vote.  Hillary won 232 EVs. You need to win 38 more to get to 270.

 

Possible targets:

Wisconsin -10

Pennsylvania - 20

Michigan - 16

Ohio - 18 

North Carolina - 15

Georgia - 16

Florida - 29

Arizona - 11

Iowa - 6

 

I don't see Trump flipping any Blue states.  The Dems need to hold the Hillary states and then flip whatever combo of states needed to get to 270. That's really where the 2020 election will be fought.

 

I think you get the states you need with the right candidate.  If some Trump voters realize their mistake, that's even better. I wouldn't rely on them.

[88Comrade2000]

15 hours ago, BenningRoadSkin said:

I remembering getting laughed out when I said anyone who is an independent after Trump was full of dog poop. I’m glad some of you are coming around to that.

I've been an independent since I was 20, back in 1988. I have no intentions of joining a party.

 

I will vote for Dems in 2020, like I did in 2018; even though I disagree with alot of their policy proposals.   It's just that Trump is an threat to the existence of the country and the GOP is so corrupt; they need to be wiped off the face of the earth.

 

I firmly believe there needs to be more viable options. Independents, 3rd parties and come 2022; will rejoin in my efforts to do that.

[visionary]

 

 

 

[88Comrade2000]

5 hours ago, hail2skins said:

Larry, I wasn't poking fun at the prediction that Trump is favored to win reelection. I do think his behavior so far during his presidency is impeding what otherwise could very well set up for a true landslide in his favor.

 

I just think its comical to hear a win with 294 electoral votes as a blowout. Huh?  And another model cited in the article predicted he'll win the popular vote 54-46 percent. There's no way in hell that happens. I wouldn't be surprised to see him win the electoral college., but at this point (albeit a long time from the Democrats choosing a nominee) I'd be very surprised if he doesn't lose the popular vote again. 

Trump will not win the popular vote.  He will lose it by a bigger margin.  He could win the Electoral College though.

[Captain Wiggles]

As to the voter ID law another reason I hate it is the ease at which one can purchase a fake ID online. For less than $100 a person could easily purchase one and use it for voter impersonation. I guarentee ya use one at my polling place the 80 year olds running the show there wouldn't know until it was to late. 

 

 

[Larry]

26 minutes ago, clietas said:

As to the voter ID law another reason I hate it is the ease at which one can purchase a fake ID online. For less than $100 a person could easily purchase one and use it for voter impersonation. I guarentee ya use one at my polling place the 80 year olds running the show there wouldn't know until it was to late. 

 

 

 

Nobody's going to spend $100 on a fake ID, so they can cast one illegal vote. Let alone take that fake ID into a polling place, with 20 witnesses and probably a cop standing around. 

 

As we've seen in NC, if you want to steal an election, you get yourself put in charge of counting the votes, and then you attack the absentee ballots. That way, you can get at hundreds of votes, without witnesses. 

[skinsmarydu]

6 hours ago, thegreaterbuzzette said:

And there's no evidence people would vote for someone on the opposite party in an attempt to "help" their party. 

Sure there is. Ask Beal. 

Nobody ever thought Hillary would totally ignore Michigan, Wisconsin, & Pennsylvania. It was the EC votes of those 3 states going to Trump that got him elected. Full stop. 

Let's not lose focus. 

[Captain Wiggles]

4 hours ago, Larry said:

 

Nobody's going to spend $100 on a fake ID, so they can cast one illegal vote. Let alone take that fake ID into a polling place, with 20 witnesses and probably a cop standing around. 

 

 

Never seen cops at the church I go to vote at. I agree its not something the average person would get involved in tho.

 

Think it was the 16'  NC primary that I had to show my ID to vote. The lil ol lady checkin IDs seemed to have no clue what she was doing. Definitely not a professional operation they got going there.