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2017 Fantasy Football


JamesMadisonSkins

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1 minute ago, The Evil Genius said:

Ok..Stefon Diggs, Brandon Marshall, Zay Jones or Danny Woodhead for my flex spot this week?

 

Non ppr scoring..need to make a replacement for Ajayi.

 

Currently going with Diggs.

Diggs - going against the Saints.

 

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1 hour ago, mcsluggo said:

 

I assume that he is ALSO the only one that has two really quality TEs too... so he has you over a barrel as well.   you asking him to trade quality for scrubs...

 

and in the 2nd trade, i think somebody that only has 1 qb will be miffed that you are asking him to downgrade that solitary QB ....

 

He will baulk.   

She (I think) did reject with out a counter.  This is how football guys assessed her team. (in comparison they rated mine at 85/80/67%)

 

QB: Jameis Winston, 
RB: LeVeon Bell, Dalvin Cook, Marshawn Lynch, C.J. Anderson, Jamaal Charles, LeGarrette Blount, Jalen Richard
WR: T.Y. Hilton, Martavis Bryant, Randall Cobb, Corey Coleman, Ted Ginn
TE: Jordan Reed, Kyle Rudolph
PK: Justin Tucker, Matt Prater
TD: Minnesota Vikings

Overview:

 

Let's start by remarking that we appreciate your old-school leanings: you have a team marked by strength at the running back position. But with the quarterback and wide receiver both being less strong, you may need to do something to change the outlook of this team. Your deficiencies are likely to show themselves through the bye weeks, so try to manuever early in improving the quarterback and/or receiver positions before week four.

Keep an eye out for quarterbacks like Dak Prescott from last year, Blake Bortles from the year before, and Ben Roethlisberger from the year before that. All were available cheap in August, and all contributed to fantasy championship teams. Similarly, wide receivers like Tyrell Williams and Jamison Crowder were available after a lot of the drafts last season. Landing some of this year's top waiver players would be a huge help, so pay close attention to increased workloads, targets, injuries, etc.

Players we particularly like on this team include Jalen Richard, Dalvin Cook, Jamaal Charles, Corey Coleman, and the Vikings defense. We have all these guys ranked ahead of where they are typically being drafted.

Bottom line:

  • With great inseason management, we think you have about a 35 percent chance of making the playoffs.
  • With good inseason management, we think you have about a 20 percent chance of making the playoffs.
  • With average inseason management, we think you have a 1 percent chance of making the playoffs.
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3 hours ago, mcsluggo said:

help me get my brain around the rookie RBs ... ranking them

 

This is for a dynasty/keeper league, where only scores count.   (no points for yards or receptions).. but a player gets bonus points points for LONG tds... and for scoring "out of position (so a RB gets extra points for receiving TDs... or return or throwing )

 

this would make McCaffrey look a bit better, for example (lots of catches, i hope.

 

3 hours ago, nonniey said:

Extra Points for receiving TDs? That simplifies things.

 

#1 McCaffrey (He a receiver)

#2 Fournette 

#3 Mixon

#4 Hunt (Would be #2 this year but think Fournette and Mixon better long term)

 

I'd rank them like this

 

#1 Hunt - He's a workhorse duel threat RB. In preseason he caught 4 passes already. Unless your scared that Charcandrick West is gonna steal carries and he's sucked badly in the past he's all they got

#2 McCaffery - I know they have a playbook just for him but in a crowded backfield. He only had 3 preseason catches

#3 Dalvin Cook - How did he not make your list? In preseason he caught 6 balls already. He's the pass catching RB in Minnesota but in a crowded backfield as well

#4 Mixon - I put him here because he's better then Fournette and at least had some passing game work in preseason unlike LF. 

#5 Fornette - I am not a believer in LF, already injured with the same injury he had in college. Jacksonville has never been good with rookie RBs, alot going wrong with him

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12 minutes ago, bobandweave said:

 

 

I'd rank them like this

 

#1 Hunt - He's a workhorse duel threat RB. In preseason he caught 4 passes already. Unless your scared that Charcandrick West is gonna steal carries and he's sucked badly in the past he's all they got

#2 McCaffery - I know they have a playbook just for him but in a crowded backfield. He only had 3 preseason catches

#3 Dalvin Cook - How did he not make your list? In preseason he caught 6 balls already. He's the pass catching RB in Minnesota but in a crowded backfield as well

#4 Mixon - I put him here because he's better then Fournette and at least had some passing game work in preseason unlike LF. 

#5 Fornette - I am not a believer in LF, already injured with the same injury he had in college. Jacksonville has never been good with rookie RBs, alot going wrong with him

He's talking Dynasty you gave him a redraft analysis (I agree your ranking if just talking about this year). 

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2 hours ago, nonniey said:

Question:

 Guy in a 2 QB League only has Winston and no other QBs -  last week I offered him McCown and Siemian for Rudolf and Prater I thought that was overpaying (Given the 2 QB Formatt) but he still declined. (I have no real TE and will stream at this point)

 

Now Winston is on an unexpected Bye this week. So I have him over the barrel (note I'm the only one with excess QB right now -everyone else has 2 or 3 I have 5). He's also a bit weak at WR

 

Sent him two offers

Goff, McCown and Moncrief  for Reed, Ginn, and Tucker  (This gives me an Elite TE and Kicker)

 

or 

Bradford, Goff, McCown, and E Sanders for Winston, Rudolf, Prater and a Scrub (J Richard) (This improves my starting QB line-up and gives me a decent TE)

 

Thoughts on these offers?

 

1. Was this guys team autodrafted?

2. Or if not is he just a guppy? Who takes only one QB in a start 2 QB league? Can't wrap my mind around that one

 

As for the offers honestly one is insulting and two your giving up way too much. I would not accept one and would mash accept on two. Since we are dealing with a guppy will not surprise me in the least for him to accept one of them but my thoughts on these are

 

Offer one no one should be playing any Colts minus TY until Luck returns and no one knows when that will be, Goff was absolutely horrible last year and while I do think he's going to do better this year then last it's way to early for anyone to trade for him, and Josh McCown is so injury prone at best he will play 6 games this year. None of those guys helps him and your asking for a start and forget kicker, Drew Brees #2 WR, and a top 3 TE for those guys? My leagues would veto the hell out of that deal if it were struck and we don't veto anything. It completely shifts the power to you while not helping him 

 

Offer two is much better for him, for you I think it's foolish. While you would get the best QB your giving away three QBs in the process including the QB with the best schedule this year for QBs (Bradford). He gets an instant starter with him and a good player later in the year with Goff, along with a scrub backup and a top 24 WR at the position. His weakness is fixed. While you get a QB who's top 15 but not top 5, a TE who while he led the league in receptions last year isn't a difference maker or anyone to worry about, a kicker for the Lions who is meh 8th in FG attempts, 20th in XP attempted on an offense not likely to be a high powered scoring machine this year making him a WW replaceable player, and a backup handcuff RB who doesn't offer any stand alone value. I'd mash accept if I was the other guy and laugh about it.

 

If he wasn't drafting QB's I'm sure his RB and WR's are pretty strong right? 

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1 minute ago, nonniey said:

He's talking Dynasty you gave him a redraft analysis (I agree your ranking if just talking about this year). 

 

What about Kareem Hunt and Dalvin Cook make you think they are only useful this year and not future seasons?

 

The guy I'm lowest on your ranking is LF who you have at 2, because I don't believe in the player. I saw someone else say he ranked them that same way and hope he also sees this.

 

Here's some reasons why I am low on LF then you both

 

1. He is already dealing with same injury he dealt with in college already

2. Jacksonville has horrible history with drafting RBs since MJD

3. Jacksonville already lost a starting Offensive Linemen and the line is not good

4. Jacksonville is starting a horrible QB which means the opposing teams likely will crowd the line and force Bortles to pass

5. RBs on bad losing teams are not players to target in fantasy to me. With them usually they get used in the first half and neutralized by game script in the second half

6. Reports today say he's no lock to start even week 1

7. Probably most important to this discussion - In three seasons in college LF started 32 games and had all of 41 catches. Compare that to Dalvin Cook who had 79 catches, Kareem Hunt who had 73 catches, Christian McCaffrey who had 99 catches, and Joe Mixon who had 65 catches. 

 

Now since the only advantage that I can see that LF has over the others is draft capital at this point I have LF lower then these other men. Where am I going wrong here? 

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2 hours ago, Grumpy Vet said:

My draft is tonight.  I've done awful the last few years.  I'd love a little advice if you wouldn't mind please.  I have the 2nd pick - snake draft.  Draft is 10 teams.  The players in red are keepers (allowed 2) that will not be available.  The yellow is where I'm projecting I'll be picking.  My two keepers are Jordan Reed and Stefon Diggs.  I'm guessing the first pick will be Bell.  I'm thinking I go Antonio Brown w/ #2 - but I'm not seeing a decent RB in my future if I do that...Then again 2 years ago I had CJ Anderson and last year - Adrian Peterson....Do I hope Fournette falls and take w/ my 2nd pick?  I'm not picking Zeke.  No chance.  My research shows ppl are not high on Lamar Miller at that spot.  Load up on WRs here and grab some scrub RB in 4th - 5th rounds?  Reach for Rodgers?

 

Edit - 1/2pt PPR

 

Help me ES - you are my only hope.

 

 

Okay sooooo couple of questions for you to better understand this

 

1. Do you have any other choices for keepers? Why did you land on Reed and Diggs and keepers this year? 

2. How many Rbs and how many WRs do you start each week?

 

Now without knowing that, it basically comes down to you being concerned with RBs which is valid but far from a season killer.

 

I'd contend in this format with you need to find some difference makers to win this year. Having the choice between Antonio Brown and Leveon Bell is a great thing. With the first pick you go with who ever was left. That's easy. 

 

Now to map out the proper strategy for you and to tell you who you need to target if you go zero RB (taking Brown) or if you should go balanced (going with Bell) I need to know the answers to these two questions first

33 minutes ago, Grumpy Vet said:

 

Thank you nonniey.  I'll pencil that in and see what really happens.

 

Stay far far away from Lamar Miller. You will regret it mark my words

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1 hour ago, bobandweave said:

 

Okay sooooo couple of questions for you to better understand this

 

1. Do you have any other choices for keepers? Why did you land on Reed and Diggs and keepers this year? 

2. How many Rbs and how many WRs do you start each week?

 

Now without knowing that, it basically comes down to you being concerned with RBs which is valid but far from a season killer.

 

I'd contend in this format with you need to find some difference makers to win this year. Having the choice between Antonio Brown and Leveon Bell is a great thing. With the first pick you go with who ever was left. That's easy. 

 

Now to map out the proper strategy for you and to tell you who you need to target if you go zero RB (taking Brown) or if you should go balanced (going with Bell) I need to know the answers to these two questions first

 

Stay far far away from Lamar Miller. You will regret it mark my words

 

Thank you for taking the time to help me.  I don't have any other keeper choices.  I had to pick those a few days ago and that was the cream of my crop - by far.  The only other one I considered was Doctson - but I couldn't do that to our fans.  I pick him and sure as hell he would be done for the season game 1.

Here is our starting team layout:

 

image.thumb.png.20d6b4ac11bc087ce0a8d820fed96a79.png

 

After the other recommendation to take Miller - I did a little checking and people are either really high on him at that spot if you can handcuff his rookie backup or like you, avoid like the plague.

 

Thanks again for any advice you can offer.  Draft starts at 8.  Drinking starts at 6:30.

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2 hours ago, bobandweave said:

 

1. Was this guys team autodrafted?

2. Or if not is he just a guppy? Who takes only one QB in a start 2 QB league? Can't wrap my mind around that one

 

As for the offers honestly one is insulting and two your giving up way too much. I would not accept one and would mash accept on two. Since we are dealing with a guppy will not surprise me in the least for him to accept one of them but my thoughts on these are

 

Offer one no one should be playing any Colts minus TY until Luck returns and no one knows when that will be, Goff was absolutely horrible last year and while I do think he's going to do better this year then last it's way to early for anyone to trade for him, and Josh McCown is so injury prone at best he will play 6 games this year. None of those guys helps him and your asking for a start and forget kicker, Drew Brees #2 WR, and a top 3 TE for those guys? My leagues would veto the hell out of that deal if it were struck and we don't veto anything. It completely shifts the power to you while not helping him 

 

Offer two is much better for him, for you I think it's foolish. While you would get the best QB your giving away three QBs in the process including the QB with the best schedule this year for QBs (Bradford). He gets an instant starter with him and a good player later in the year with Goff, along with a scrub backup and a top 24 WR at the position. His weakness is fixed. While you get a QB who's top 15 but not top 5, a TE who while he led the league in receptions last year isn't a difference maker or anyone to worry about, a kicker for the Lions who is meh 8th in FG attempts, 20th in XP attempted on an offense not likely to be a high powered scoring machine this year making him a WW replaceable player, and a backup handcuff RB who doesn't offer any stand alone value. I'd mash accept if I was the other guy and laugh about it.

 

If he wasn't drafting QB's I'm sure his RB and WR's are pretty strong right? 

His RBs are strong  but weak at WR with his 3 best WRs being Hilton, M Bryant and  Cobb. Yes I know I was overpaying with the second offer but the exception of Bradford for me they are all bench players (Sanders is my #4) and I 'd still have 3 Qbs in my stable and don't think I'd get him to budge

substituting Siemian for Bradford.

 

It was a weird draft with 5 teams trying to corner all the TEs when they say I didn't get one. (Heck one team has 5) really stupid tactic as they hurt their teams badly and I can always stream TEs (I you can't corner TEs like you can QBs). And Oh it is my team that is very strong at RB and WR (Johnson, Hunt, Gurley, Gurley, White, Smallwood - M Thomas, Fitz, Pryor., Wright, Moncrief)  One thing is I have to drop a player for a kicker and am trying to avoid dropping Smallwood.

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1 hour ago, Grumpy Vet said:

 

Thanks again for any advice you can offer.  Draft starts at 8.  Drinking starts at 6:30.

 

Okay so if I was in your shoes given the information I either go with a balanced approach to the draft IF I get Bell at #2, or I am going with a zero RB approach if I get Brown. In your format you can start

 

1 QB

1 RB

3 WR

1 TE

 

If you choose to. Now RBs generally get more fantasy points overall but receivers have the higher ceilings. So in fantasy I like to take the approach of if your not first your last, in other words the guy who gets 10th place is gonna get the same thing the guy in 4th place gets (nothing) so go big or go home right?

 

Now I'm going to assume that the first pick is Leveon Bell. Here is how I personally would attack this draft with that information by position

 

1 QB - Wait on QB. So say this league is only 10 teams, I would wait until the 8th QB is taken and then that's your signal to take a QB with your next pick. Do not take a QB before 8 are off the board. In 10 teamers you can stream QBs if you want/need to. We need to get you an edge here and this allows you to get an edge. Remember if it's 12 teams wait until the 10th is off the board then get one. Late round QBs worth the late round selection people are sleeping on right now - Dak Prescott, Andy Dalton, Phillip Rivers. 

 

1 RB - Now the issue with Lamar Miller was how ****ty he was last season, I mean we are taking Matt Jones bad. Before Miller got to Houston the general belief was that Miami didn't give him enough touches. He would do excellent with 200 carries there and then Miami would stop using him. We all thought once he got to the Texans he would be an awesome RB and all he did with that was hurt everyone who drafted him. Think about this

 

Quote

Lamar Miller signed a four-year, $26-million-dollar contract with Houston prior to last season. Along with that came hype that he could become the next fantasy stud. Well, he was awfully mediocre in his first season in Houston, setting a career high in carries with 268 but career lows in yards per carry (4.0) and yards per catch (6.1) over 14 games. He did finish 10th in the NFL with 1,073 yards rushing, but a dip in TDs and tallying under 200 yards receiving translated to finishing as just the RB18 in standard and RB20 in PPR last season. He averaged just over two catches per game and saw half as many receiving yards as the year prior in Miami. Pro Football Focus provides more evidence of Miller’s struggles, ranking him 50th out of 58 qualified RBs in yards after contact per attempt, and 49th out of 53 RBs in their elusive rating

 

Now seeing that the Texans went out this year and drafted Foreman that was a negative sign. It either means that the Dolphins were right to limit Millers carries all along and the Texans will as well limiting his upside or it shows that the Texans don't want to be joined to him and that contract going into next year and will phase him out as the season goes on. Either way it's a negative for Miller. Let someone else take him in the second round.

 

Your best move at this position this year is to not draft a single RB until you have gotten into the 5th round. Rounds 1-4 should be used to get yourself 4-5 WR's and 0-1 QB's (when to take a QB just told you). Going zero RB while slamming your WR's early will provide you with a scoring edge at that position.

 

Where your opponents will get points with RB's and an advantage over you, you will get an advantage over them with WR's. This is an anti fragile approach to drafts. RB's are 10 times more likely then WR's to get hurt and miss games. Every year 3-5 guys drafted in ADP 1-10 don't end up there end of season. Your embracing that truth, limiting your risk with the position, and building the best receiver group in the league. Not too shabby!

 

So rounds 1-5 plan on getting 4 or 5 receivers. When you get into rounds 6-10 you should then concentrate on getting RB's. When your league mates see you getting all of the receivers in the early rounds they will begin freaking out thinking they are going to not get any one and then start reaching for receivers leaving the running backs for you. Your zigging, they are zagging

 

Now as for specific targets to take, using ADP data is fine. Personally I would look for guys like Joe Mixon, Mark Ingram, Ameer Abdullah, Bilal Powell, Doug Martin, Robert Kelley, Derrick Henry, Jonathan Stewart, Duke Johnson, Matt Forte, Jeremy Hill, Jamaal Charles, Giovani Benard, D'Onta Foreman. All are going later then RB20, all who aren't that well liked and are under valued, all having some warts who can produce and likely will produce this year.

 

You only need to play 1 RB per week. If you get some of these guys you can Frankenstein a RB1 together this year easily based on matchups. 

 

Leaving your starting roster with 

 

1 WR - Antonio Brown

1 WR - Stephon Diggs

1 WR - Someone you pick in rounds 2-5

1 TE - Jordan Reed

 

Rounds 11 until it ends should be used on a single kicker, a single Defense (try and get the Steelers they have a great early season schedule and are being forgotten about), single QB (do not draft any backups to these positions) and the rest go with two guys you like but aren't homer picks. Do not make any homer picks. 

 

Doing this Should end you up with a competitive team and in the mix this year with a high ceiling that if one or two of those RB's you take break out will be in the hunt this year. Good luck!

 

 

1 hour ago, nonniey said:

His RBs are strong  but weak at WR with his 3 best WRs being Hilton, M Bryant and  Cobb. Yes I know I was overpaying with the second offer but the exception of Bradford for me they are all bench players (Sanders is my #4) and I 'd still have 3 Qbs in my stable and don't think I'd get him to budge

substituting Siemian for Bradford.

 

It was a weird draft with 5 teams trying to corner all the TEs when they say I didn't get one. (Heck one team has 5) really stupid tactic as they hurt their teams badly and I can always stream TEs (I you can't corner TEs like you can QBs). And Oh it is my team that is very strong at RB and WR (Johnson, Hunt, Gurley, Gurley, White, Smallwood - M Thomas, Fitz, Pryor., Wright, Moncrief)  One thing is I have to drop a player for a kicker and am trying to avoid dropping Smallwood.

 

You know something we don't about him? I was with you all the way up to there. Now I'm against the masses when it comes to Blount, don't like him and you couldn't get me to draft him, but where is this not wanting to drop Smallwood coming from? 

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Thank you so much B&W for your very thorough advice.  I like it.  If Bell drops to me - I balance it all out.  If Brown - I go heavy on WR in first few rounds til I get to #9QB then switch to RBs in rounds 6-10.  Based on the keepers and what I see happening - I think Brown will drop to me and I'll be Zero RB option.  So my 2nd and 3rd round WRs should be around here:

 

image.png.2c30df602d2a779e30cc68b6e7c30c8e.png

 

Hopefully Demaryius is there and I'd take him at 2nd round.  If no - more than likely I'll have a hopefully well rested and recovered Allen and then have to decide on Robinson or Jeffrey.

 

I'll post an after action report later tonight or more than likely in the morning so you can see how badly I botched it.  Thanks again for all of your advice.

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1 hour ago, bobandweave said:

 

You know something we don't about him? I was with you all the way up to there. Now I'm against the masses when it comes to Blount, don't like him and you couldn't get me to draft him, but where is this not wanting to drop Smallwood coming from? 

Smallwood is my sleeper starter for Philly I think he will supplant Blount. Not that that will stop me from dropping him he is first out the door when I need to. Just saying trade will enable me to keep him on the roster which is an added benefit imo (Think Kelley situation  a year ago).

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6 hours ago, bobandweave said:

 

1. Was this guys team autodrafted?

2. Or if not is he just a guppy? Who takes only one QB in a start 2 QB league? Can't wrap my mind around that one

 

As for the offers honestly one is insulting and two your giving up way too much. I would not accept one and would mash accept on two. Since we are dealing with a guppy will not surprise me in the least for him to accept one of them but my thoughts on these are

 

Offer one no one should be playing any Colts minus TY until Luck returns and no one knows when that will be, Goff was absolutely horrible last year and while I do think he's going to do better this year then last it's way to early for anyone to trade for him, and Josh McCown is so injury prone at best he will play 6 games this year. None of those guys helps him and your asking for a start and forget kicker, Drew Brees #2 WR, and a top 3 TE for those guys? My leagues would veto the hell out of that deal if it were struck and we don't veto anything. It completely shifts the power to you while not helping him 

 

Offer two is much better for him, for you I think it's foolish. While you would get the best QB your giving away three QBs in the process including the QB with the best schedule this year for QBs (Bradford). He gets an instant starter with him and a good player later in the year with Goff, along with a scrub backup and a top 24 WR at the position. His weakness is fixed. While you get a QB who's top 15 but not top 5, a TE who while he led the league in receptions last year isn't a difference maker or anyone to worry about, a kicker for the Lions who is meh 8th in FG attempts, 20th in XP attempted on an offense not likely to be a high powered scoring machine this year making him a WW replaceable player, and a backup handcuff RB who doesn't offer any stand alone value. I'd mash accept if I was the other guy and laugh about it.

 

If he wasn't drafting QB's I'm sure his RB and WR's are pretty strong right? 

Well, Ended up being based on Option #1. He accepted Seimian, Goff and Wright for Reed, Ginn and Prater. (I'll use Prater this week and see what is better in FA next week (Cheaper that way we use bid bucks - FAs cost 10 bucks but next week we bid on players and I can go as low as 1 during that process). Football Guys have me increasing my odds of making final four to 90/85/80%

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so i did a 12 team keeper league 

 

QB- Luck, Bradford

WR (3) - Thomas, K. Allen, A. Robinson, R. Matthews, K. Wright, J. Gordon, Amendola, M. Lee

RB(2) - Zeke, Powell, Abdullah, McFadden, Smallwood, K. Dixon

TE(1) Walker

K- Tucker 

Def- Seattle

 

Thoughts where i can improve??

 

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5 minutes ago, skinfan2k said:

so i did a 12 team keeper league 

 

QB- Luck, Bradford

WR (3) - Thomas, K. Allen, A. Robinson, R. Matthews, K. Wright, J. Gordon, Amendola, M. Lee

RB(2) - Zeke, Powell, Abdullah, McFadden, Smallwood, K. Dixon

TE(1) Walker

K- Tucker 

Def- Seattle

 

Thoughts where i can improve??

 

Which Thomas?

 

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29 minutes ago, skinfan2k said:

so i did a 12 team keeper league 

 

QB- Luck, Bradford

WR (3) - Thomas, K. Allen, A. Robinson, R. Matthews, K. Wright, J. Gordon, Amendola, M. Lee

RB(2) - Zeke, Powell, Abdullah, McFadden, Smallwood, K. Dixon

TE(1) Walker

K- Tucker 

Def- Seattle

 

Thoughts where i can improve??

 

Very Strong and when Luck returns it will be even Stronger. Bradford has some nice match-ups as well.  Think you have a good chance. BTW why did you draft Dixon (he is out for the year - so drop him)?

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1 minute ago, nonniey said:

Very Strong and when Luck returns it will be even Stronger. Bradford has some nice match-ups as well.  Think you have a good chance. BTW why did you draft Dixon (he is out for the year - so drop him)?

 

we can keep 2 IR guys per team.  I thought i could put gordon on IR but it's only for players out for the year

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