The (only!) official ES all things Kirk Cousins should we shouldn't we off-season thread.

[Stefanskins]

23 minutes ago, Why am I Mr. Pink? said:

But Cousins talk of percentage of salary cap scares me, he said this is what his agent told him, its about percent of cap not a number. That means he and his agent dont want 22 mil per for the next 5 years. Currently the cap is 1,555,270,00 and 15% of that is 23.3M ... but i dont think Kirk wants 23.3m per year but 15% of the cap per year.  Next years low estimate of cap is 163M (estimated 8-11 mil cap increase for next year)

 

2017 - $24,450,000 (163,000,000*.15)

2018 - $25,500,000 (170,000,000*.15) .... assuming a cap increase of 7M

2019 - etc etc etc

 

In essence, I think the days of paying long term contracts based on current cap numbers are long gone. Players arent going to take deals that pay them fairly now but will underpay them in future years. 

 

I think Cousins asking price will be staggering and Im not sure Scot will fold. 

 

High stakes. 

 

Well Scot did it to himself (us)....he made Kirk go all in and he lost... We/Skins won though...Kirk did it again, under immense pressure (i'd assume)...so now we have to pay the man his money...a lot of money...that's what happens when you double down...Trust me Scot will pay the man...no doubt about it....now all we need is D and at least one or two more linemen (preferably a good/great center) and we will be sooo legit!!!..HTTR!!!

[Stefanskins]

2 minutes ago, TheGreek1973 said:

Agreed.

Hell like someone else said, who is to say that he doesn't want Gruden gone also?

 

Don't worry Greek : ) .. lol, even my dumbass said last year..."maybe the real reason is that GMSM isn't sold on Gruden more than not sold on Kirk"..they do go hand n' hand at this juncture...

look, Scot has to know that our O is legit and that all he needs to do is build that D, get us a good D coordinator and an O lineman or two...and sign Kirk...really is that simple...don't over think this Scot!!!

[Riggo-toni]

48 minutes ago, TheGreek1973 said:

And what I am saying is and have been all season, you pay for your mistakes.  But you don't double down on your mistakes.  Scott rolled the dice on Cousins and he lost.  Will he admit he was wrong by signing him or will his ego take over and say Tag him again which IMO it will be very stupid or worse let him go.  And its funny how Trent Green's name came up.  We pulled a similar move there and look how that ended up.

 

I agree tagging him again won't work - it would assure that he would be gone in 2018, since there's no way we cover the 35 million for year 3.

The question is, how high do you go? I'm not trolling or trying to be contentious; I'm curious what people think we can afford before the loss of cap space renders the signing a net negative. I agree with needing to overpay rather than returning to Grossmanland, but speculation right now is that he will demand to be the highest paid player in the NFL. I have said I could swallow overpaying him at around 21 million a year, with around 55 guaranteed. Maybe a bit higher, considering the alternatives. What is the ceiling where you or anyone else would say "basta"?

[PartyPosse]

If we pay him as the highest paid player then basically what we saw last year has to be the absolute floor of his potential - market value or not.

[bobandweave]

2 hours ago, onedrop said:

All that articles proves is that we must have ALWAYS started with crappy field position, were able to march a long way down the field and failed a lot in the red zone. Which says more about limited play calling abilities when there's no field left than any one players impact. 

 

 

 

 

We ranked 25th in the league at average starting field position per drive. Now the best #1 ranked team started at the 31.40 yard line (Raiders) which was four yards better then our starting position of 27.16, repeating that for emphasis only 4 yards separated the very best and us in field position as a whole.

 

You also should know that we ranked 11th in the league at our average starting field position following a kickoff.

 

So how bad was the field position? Not what you said there, we didn't ALWAYS start with bad field position not with an 11th rank there. I don't believe we can say it was that.

 

Offensively we had 165 offensive drives this year.

 

Comparatively speaking the number of offensive drives we had this year ranked second worst (31st) in the league only behind the Lions. The NFL average for the season was 177

 

When we did get the ball on offense we did some amazing things. First we ranked 2nd in the league in gaining yards per drive falling only behind Atlanta. They by comparison had only one more offensive drive then we did (166) however as we all know they had many more TD's then we did.

 

We were 2nd best at limiting 3 and outs per drive, and ended up 6th in points scored per drive. We ranked 10th overall in TDs per drive, and first overall in FG's per drive. Now those rankings of "per drive" should be seen as somewhat screwed up because of how few drives we actually had but they are impressive. Those stats show our offense was very effective last season.

 

The clear reason we had so few points scored was our issues in the Red Zone which you hit on.

We ranked 28th in the league in points scored in the RZ and ranked 29th in TDs scored in the red zone.

 

So what do we know about this? We know we could move the ball at will except we could not get the ball in the end zone. That's why we had a historically bad offense this year.

 

Now as to how to fix Red Zone offense, who is to blame for that, and even knowing if it can be fixed with Cousins running the show is unknown. One stat tells me the red zone issues can not be fixed with Cousins at the helm.without serious changes to his game

 

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000769130/article/cam-newton-leads-nfls-top10-most-aggressive-qbs

 

Quote

Kirk Cousins rarely throws into tight windows. Cousins threw just 14.3 percent of his passes to a targeted receiver who had less than a yard of separation in 2016, the second-lowest among starting quarterbacks. Only 7.8 percent of his throws that traveled 20-plus air yards went into tight windows. General manager Scott McCloughan told Cousins he was going to "going to build this roster to where you can be average and still be good," and it appears that plan worked this season.

 

You can not throw in the Red Zone without being willing to throw into tight windows. Receivers will not get separation in the Red Zone like they do in the Green Zone (Outside the 20s). If the QB is not willing to throw into tight coverage the Red Zone issues will not be fixed by the QB.

 

By comparison

 

Quote

Matt Ryan, Atlanta Falcons
Considered by many to be an MVP favorite after a wildly successful statistical season, Matt Ryan's placement here among the Top-10 most aggressive quarterbacks only adds credence to his case. Ryan attempted 21.1 percent of his passes into tight coverage during the regular season and came away with great results. His 49.5 completion rate on such throws only trailed Aaron Rodgers and Russel Wilson among quarterbacks who threw more than 200 passes. Ryan was absolutely lethal at deconstruction defenses in the short areas, as his 60.9 completion percentage ranked third-best. Yet, one of the most striking stats from Ryan's potential MVP campaign was his NFL-high 135.4 passer rating on deep passes (20-plus air yards). It's even more impressive when you note that he was still regularly testing deep coverage on deep throws. Ryan attempted 31.1 percent of those passes into tight windows and never threw an interception. If the Falcons quarterback walks away with MVP honors to commemorate what was a remarkable bounce-back season, it will be well-deserved.

 

Some of the Red Zone blame must go to Cousins for not being willing to throw these difficult passes there

[onedrop]

3 minutes ago, PartyPosse said:

If we pay him as the highest paid player then basically what we saw last year has to be the absolute floor of his potential - market value or not.

Why? If it's market value, you're getting what the market gives you. No more, no less. It certainly doesn't entitle one to a chance at an all time great, which is exactly what is being asked if last seasons performance is the "absolute floor".

[srtman04]

Does anyone know the latest on the contract negotiations for Kirk?  Have they been put on hold in favor of finding a new DC??  

[PartyPosse]

Is there a way of finding out kirk's ball distribution in the redzone in terms of where he threw it (left side, right side, middle of field)? I feel like that would be extremely telling as well.

5 minutes ago, onedrop said:

Why? If it's market value, you're getting what the market gives you. No more, no less. It certainly doesn't entitle one to a chance at an all time great, which is exactly what is being asked if last seasons performance is the "absolute floor".

Because setting the market isn't market value. 

[bobandweave]

1 hour ago, Wildbunny said:

I back up the thinking that our RZ problems are tied with playcalling duties, not players.

And I think that it's even more tied to the fact that we decided to go with no Fullback on the team this year.

 

Disagree, not to say our play calling wasn't suspect in the Red Zone but players very much played a part in our futility there.

 

Cousins would not throw into tight windows in the Red Zone. Our RBs were horrible in the RZ. Kirk also threw an INT on .073% of all offensive drives, ranks 15th in the league for picks. We also carried with us a fumbling rate of .048% which was 22nd worst in the league on all drives.

 

Too many picks and fumbles should tell us its not all on the coaches or the called plays

[onedrop]

7 minutes ago, bobandweave said:

Some of the Red Zone blame must go to Cousins for not being willing to throw these difficult passes there

Sure, some blame is on Kirk. More is on whomever called the RZ offense. Seriously, how many fades or HB dives can we attempt when EVERYONE knows what's coming?

 

 

FWIW, I did read and appreciate the rest of you post. 

[onedrop]

14 minutes ago, PartyPosse said:

 

Because setting the market isn't market value. 

 Were discussing KC GETTING market value not his deal SETTING market value

[TheGreek1973]

What I want to know is why we were so damn good in RZ offense in 2015 and sucked so bad in 2016.  Was it that the Ds figured us out?  Was Cousins much more cautious?  Whatever it was Gruden needs to fix it before the start of the 2017 season, unless course Cousins is gone and then welcome to 6-10...maybe.

[PartyPosse]

7 minutes ago, onedrop said:

 Were discussing KC GETTING market value not his deal SETTING market value

Is his market value the highest paid player in the league? I guess it depends on his demands in terms of percentage of cap, but if he wants to set the market value by becoming the highest paid player in the league then what you saw this year has to be the absolutely worst you see. You're paying for potential still. 

[mistertim]

4 hours ago, maskedsuperstar said:

Good Lawd! If the Skins had any defense, they would be in the playoffs. Just stop! Do you have a better option? I bet you don't. 

32nd in 3rd down defense! The worst in the history of the NFL. Detroit, Cinn, Arizona etc,! He brought the team back, and the defense THROWS UP on themselves. Kirk was 2nd in the league behind Stafford, in tying or go ahead TD in the 4th qtr!! Just stop!

 

Yes our defense was crappy, especially on 3rd downs. However, in the two MUST WIN games to get us into the playoffs they mostly did their jobs especially against the Giants. But the offense, Kirk in particular, came out and laid an egg both times. Just because we have a poor defense doesn't suddenly mean that Kirk gets a pass for choking in what were likely the two most important games of the year.

[Hooper]

1 hour ago, Why am I Mr. Pink? said:

But Cousins talk of percentage of salary cap scares me, he said this is what his agent told him, its about percent of cap not a number. That means he and his agent dont want 22 mil per for the next 5 years. Currently the cap is 1,555,270,00 and 15% of that is 23.3M ... but i dont think Kirk wants 23.3m per year but 15% of the cap per year.  Next years low estimate of cap is 163M (estimated 8-11 mil cap increase for next year)

 

2017 - $24,450,000 (163,000,000*.15)

2018 - $25,500,000 (170,000,000*.15) .... assuming a cap increase of 7M

2019 - etc etc etc

 

In essence, I think the days of paying long term contracts based on current cap numbers are long gone. Players arent going to take deals that pay them fairly now but will underpay them in future years. 

 

I think Cousins asking price will be staggering and Im not sure Scot will fold. 

 

High stakes. 

Here's where Cousins' agent has the Skins by the balls.

 

If the Skins would be fine/happy paying Cousins 20-22 million a year, are they really going to let him walk because he wants 24? We are talking about the most important position in sports. If you want KC to be the guy going forward, you don't change your plan over 2 million a year. 

 

Plus I suspect Carr and Stafford are going to ask for 30 million a year soon.

 

 

[RawRebel]

Yep we should let Kirk walk so instead of fighting for a playoff spot in week 17 we know by week six that we're out of it.

[PartyPosse]

Signing Cousins simply because there's nothing else out there is like marrying a woman you don't love because your friends and family keep pressuring you that you aren't getting any younger and you should just settle down. 

[bobandweave]

46 minutes ago, PartyPosse said:

Is there a way of finding out kirk's ball distribution in the redzone in terms of where he threw it (left side, right side, middle of field)? I feel like that would be extremely telling as well.

 

 

For Daily Fantasy purposes I use this website for that, when I'm deciding who to play in my cash games I like to use the knowledge found there with the CB-WR Profootball Focus Rankings matchups to see who is in the best spots I want to play

 

http://nflsavant.com/targets.php?ddlTeam=WAS&ddlYear=2016&week=&rz=redzone&ddlPosition=

http://nflsavant.com/game.php?team_code=WAS&team_id=5110&stype=REG&year=2016

[onedrop]

15 minutes ago, PartyPosse said:

Is his market value the highest paid player in the league? I guess it depends on his demands in terms of percentage of cap, but if he wants to set the market value by becoming the highest paid player in the league then what you saw this year has to be the absolutely worst you see. You're paying for potential still. 

While I try not to deal in absolutes I must concede that if we are paying for potential we must see, and deserve, improved play.

 

For KC specifically  (and I've said this before) this means developing a certain edge or grittiness. He needs to find his inner ruthlessness. 

[PartyPosse]

11 minutes ago, bobandweave said:

 

For Daily Fantasy purposes I use this website for that, when I'm deciding who to play in my cash games I like to use the knowledge found there with the CB-WR Profootball Focus Rankings matchups to see who is in the best spots I want to play

 

http://nflsavant.com/targets.php?ddlTeam=WAS&ddlYear=2016&week=&rz=redzone&ddlPosition=

http://nflsavant.com/game.php?team_code=WAS&team_id=5110&stype=REG&year=2016

Are these numbers accurate?? In redzone, cousins threw to reed 13 times all season and only 3 in the middle of the field. Garçon had 50 attempts with only 8 within middle of field. The attempts to Pierre were also ridiculously predictable.

 

Cousins pass distribution was 75 outside the hash marks and 15 within. 

 

 

[bobandweave]

9 minutes ago, PartyPosse said:

Are these numbers accurate?? In redzone, cousins threw to reed 13 times all season and only 3 in the middle of the field. Garçon had 50 attempts with only 8 within middle of field. The attempts to Pierre were also ridiculously predictable.

 

Not sure what your looking at. I've seen the best in the business mention that website so I'm sure it's accurate.

 

In the Red Zone Kirk threw to Jordan Reed 15 times this season. Garcon only had 13 targets in the Red Zone this year.

 

Compared to last season Reed had 23 targets and Garcon had 17 targets, down numbers but that should be predictable. Jordan Reed missed time due to injury, and they were not using Crowder as much in the Red Zone last season like they did this year which would hurt Garcon's targets

 

 

[mistertim]

You know, I'm not convinced that Brock's contract helps Kirk. He got an enormous contract and then was crap. Eventually teams are going to wise up when that sort of nonsense keeps happening, and let's be honest...the rest of the league was basically laughing out loud at the Texans for giving him that idiotic contract. Now, Kirk is a better QB than Brock, but he still has some very valid questions marks in his game. I can see teams being wary about giving him 25+ million per year with the questions marks and especially since he laid eggs all over in some of the most important games of the season this year.

 

41 minutes ago, bobandweave said:

 

Not sure what your looking at. I've seen the best in the business mention that website so I'm sure it's accurate.

 

In the Red Zone Kirk threw to Jordan Reed 15 times this season. Garcon only had 13 targets in the Red Zone this year.

 

Compared to last season Reed had 23 targets and Garcon had 17 targets, down numbers but that should be predictable. Jordan Reed missed time due to injury, and they were not using Crowder as much in the Red Zone last season like they did this year which would hurt Garcon's targets

 

 

 

He did miss time but I think he was banged up in general for quite a bit of time this past season.

[Why am I Mr. Pink?]

Wasnt this thread created to talk positively about Kirk and to balance out the "Let Kirk Walk" thread that was made the second the Giants game ended. 

 

I feel like there are now 3 different Kirk Cousins threads and this one is just becoming a sounding board for the 3 vocally anti-Kirk people ..... who keep repeating the same generic negative thoughts .... that have been said ad nauseam in the "Let Kirk Walk" thread.

 

Why cant people just agree with me?

 

Kirk is very very good but not elite. 

With Kirk, we have a chance to win. 

Without Kirk, we have no chance to win. 

Paying Kirk will NOT hurt our cap position. 

Pay Kirk. 

 

Its not that hard. 

 

Maybe I need a snickers. 

[mistertim]

5 minutes ago, Why am I Mr. Pink? said:

Wasnt this thread created to talk positively about Kirk and to balance out the "Let Kirk Walk" thread that was made the second the Giants game ended. 

 

I feel like there are now 3 different Kirk Cousins threads and this one is just becoming a sounding board for the 3 vocally anti-Kirk people ..... who keep repeating the same generic negative thoughts .... that have been said ad nauseam in the "Let Kirk Walk" thread.

 

Why cant people just agree with me?

 

Kirk is very very good but not elite.     

With Kirk, we have a chance to win. 

Without Kirk, we have no chance to win. 

Paying Kirk will NOT hurt our cap position. 

Pay Kirk. 

 

Its not that hard. 

 

Maybe I need a snickers. 

 

He's a good QB, but yes definitely not elite.

True, but if we have to let one or two of our playmakers walk I'd say it is less so. He has an extremely talented receiving corp.

There's no way for you to know this.

There's no way for you to know this as nobody knows exactly what he's going to ask for or what guys we might like to go for in the offseason.

Pay Kirk....but don't make him the top payed player in the NFL. That's ridiculous for a player of his caliber.

 

 

You need a snickers.

[PartyPosse]

1 hour ago, bobandweave said:

 

Not sure what your looking at. I've seen the best in the business mention that website so I'm sure it's accurate.

 

In the Red Zone Kirk threw to Jordan Reed 15 times this season. Garcon only had 13 targets in the Red Zone this year.

 

Compared to last season Reed had 23 targets and Garcon had 17 targets, down numbers but that should be predictable. Jordan Reed missed time due to injury, and they were not using Crowder as much in the Red Zone last season like they did this year which would hurt Garcon's targets

 

 

Oops. I was looking at yardage numbers for Pierre. Still the fact remains, 85% of kirk's redzone attempts were outside the hash marks.