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Bloomberg: China Set to Push Asia Trade Deal Harder After Trump Win


No Excuses

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While the RCEP falls short of the lofty goals set for TPP, which was presented as a centerpiece of Obama’s economic and military rebalancing to Asia, it may still represent a significant milestone, Hong Kong-based HSBC Holdings Plc Economist Joseph Incalcaterra wrote in a research note.

“The TPP was a beacon of hope in an environment of subdued trade activity and weak global growth,” Incalcaterra said. “Despite drawbacks, the RCEP should help boost trade volumes across Asia and spur investment in new supply chains.”

The RCEP, which would be the first pan-Asian trade deal ever, was launched by the Association of Southeast Asian Nations in 2012, and has gone through 15 rounds of negotiations. These have been looking to accommodate India’s fears of a widening trade deficit with China, as well Japan’s reluctance to open its agricultural sector.

The 16 countries involved in RCEP include all 10 members of Asean as well as China, Japan, India, South Korea, Australia and New Zealand. They represent about 30 percent of global gross domestic product and almost half the world’s population. Some had already signed up for the TPP. As for the five TPP signatories in the Americas, they would be left out.

 

 

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-11-15/trump-trade-snub-set-to-boost-china-s-bid-for-its-own-asia-pact

Not passing TPP is going to go down as one of the greatest foreign policy and business opportunity blunders in American history.

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1 hour ago, No Excuses said:

 

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-11-15/trump-trade-snub-set-to-boost-china-s-bid-for-its-own-asia-pact

Not passing TPP is going to go down as one of the greatest foreign policy and business opportunity blunders in American history.

 

So we can blame Hillary for opposing it? 

There are some serious concerns about tems from both sides of the aisle.

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3 minutes ago, twa said:

So we can blame Hillary for opposing it? 

 

I never took her opposition to it seriously. I think Hillary would have passed it if she got elected. Or Obama would have done so in the lame duck session to spare her the public wrath. Both understood why it's important for America's future interests to pivot towards Asia and the potential it holds.

Bill, W and a lot of major corporations deserve a lot of blame for failing to offer a social safety net to workers displaced by NAFTA. I don't fault the people for being skeptical of future trade deals even though they are net positive to the overall economy.

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I think if it was left to Hillary, she would have basically put ratification in a holding pattern while changing some bits.

Now those bits may or may not have been substantial changes, but I don't think she could have just flatly ratified without some wrath, and she likely would not have wanted to start her presidency off on the wrong foot.  She wouldn't have let it die entirely though.

Obama might indeed have pushed ratification through to save her the trouble.  Then she could have worked to try and mitigate negatives while reaping positives.

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6 hours ago, Larry said:

 

Glad to see the new batch of spin has arrived. 

Why not quote his whole statement?  Maybe it's your version of spin?

i cringed at his first sentence but when read with the rest of his statement it's a valid point.  I honestly don't know enough to understand TPP and its effects long term but when both parties are against it or at least only Luke warm for it, it have pause.

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4 minutes ago, TheGreatBuzz said:

Why not quote his whole statement?  Maybe it's your version of spin?

i cringed at his first sentence but when read with the rest of his statement it's a valid point.  I honestly don't know enough to understand TPP and its effects long term but when both parties are against it or at least only Luke warm for it, it have pause.

 

This is a very comprehensive, fairly unbiased perspective on TPP.

http://www.progressivepolicy.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/2015.11-Gerwin_The-Trans-Pacific-Partnership-and-Small-Business_Boosting-Exports-and-Inclusive-Growth.pdf

The opposition to it by politicians is based very little on the merits of the trade policies. It is mostly driven by voter opposition and I think the American public for the most part is not looking at this from an objective standpoint. Free trade has sort of become a boogeyman on both sides: the left dislikes it because of its pro-corporate agenda and the right dislikes it because it promotes globalism.

Gah, reading through that policy brief just made even more sad about where we've come.

The TPP really had a chance to boost our small and medium business growth. American entrepreneurs lost out on a huge marketplace in the most rapidly developing part of the world.

This vacuum will largely be filled by Chinese state-run enterprises. For shame.

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1 hour ago, TheGreatBuzz said:

i cringed at his first sentence but when read with the rest of his statement it's a valid point.  I honestly don't know enough to understand TPP and its effects long term but when both parties are against it or at least only Luke warm for it, it have pause.

Remember when the Senate passed that law allowing people to sue Saudi Arabia for 9-11, and the President vetoed it because we'd also open ourselves up to suits, but the Senate overruled his veto because it was really popular despite being a bad idea and then a bunch of Senators were like "wait, that was BAD?  Why didn't you tell us?" and the President facepalmed really hard as did millions of Americans?

TPP is basically that, but in slow motion and sorta flipped.

Instead of Congress passing something, they're killing it, because of populist pressure to do so.  They will, as China becomes stronger in the region, recognize their mistake and start the "we didn't realize why killing TPP entirely was bad because no one explained it to us" schtick.

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Now we don't like democracy?

http://www.aflcio.org/Issues/Trade/Trans-Pacific-Partnership-Free-Trade-Agreement-TPP/Ten-Critical-Problems-with-the-Trans-Pacific-Partnership

http://grist.org/business-technology/no-longer-top-secret-the-tpp-trade-deal-is-just-as-evil-as-you-think-it-is/

or we can do Hillary:   I was against it once it was finally negotiated and the terms were laid out.

 

Quote


I absorbed new info and changed my mind to oppose TPP

Q: You supported Obama's trade deal, the Trans-Pacific Partnership or TPP, dozen of times. You even called it the "gold standard". Now, suddenly, last week, you're against it.

CLINTON: Well, actually, I have been very consistent. Over the course of my entire life, I have always fought for the same values and principles, but, like most human beings--including those of us who run for office--I do absorb new information. I do look at what's happening in the world. Take the trade deal. I did say, when I was secretary of state, three years ago, that I hoped it would be the gold standard. It was just finally negotiated last week, and in looking at it, it didn't meet my standards. My standards for more new, good jobs for Americans, for raising wages for Americans. And I want to make sure that I can look into the eyes of any middle-class American and say, "this will help raise your wages." And I concluded I could not.

 

http://www.ontheissues.org/2016/Hillary_Clinton_Free_Trade.htm

 

But it is Trump coming along to side with the lefties :)

 

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10 minutes ago, No Excuses said:

Lol when twa has to go on lefty sites to be a contrarian.

Who is saying that Hillary doesn't deserve criticism for being a chicken about TPP? Both the left and right caved into populist fear.

It was one of the more disappointing aspects of her campaign. She should have been for it and talked about what she would change specifically before trying to get it approved through Congress. Instead she caved. 

 

23 minutes ago, twa said:

Actually Trump said is was a free trader, "100%."

It may still get passed in 2017.

 

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22 minutes ago, Hersh said:

It was one of the more disappointing aspects of her campaign. She should have been for it and talked about what she would change specifically before trying to get it approved through Congress. Instead she caved. 

She should have gone down on her own terms. I wish Hillary wasn't so susceptible to caving in and compromising her views.

Her book Hard Choices made me really like her and appreciate her. When in power, she is a brilliant thinker. She loses her mojo when trying to appease others.

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46 minutes ago, No Excuses said:

Lol when twa has to go on lefty sites to be a contrarian.

Who is saying that Hillary doesn't deserve criticism for being a chicken about TPP? Both the left and right caved into populist fear.

 

Being fast track it is a yes or no....No seems ahead at the moment

one of the hazards of secrecy

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6 minutes ago, twa said:

Being fast track it is a yes or no....No seems ahead at the moment

one of the hazards of secrecy

Putting these things out in the open also exposes them to charlatans on both sides twisting it beyond reason and starting the negative PR campaign.

Which is exactly what happened before policy people could even put out briefs on what it contained.

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