2017 Comprehensive NFL Draft Thread

[Going Commando]

14 hours ago, Monk4thaHALL said:

We need an Olgetree, Shazier, Sean Lee type. 

And a Cameron Heyward, Kawann Short, or Calais Campbell.  This defense is never going to be tough with such a soft ass defensive line.

Ogletree and Shazier have ended up being pretty great.  Shazier I saw coming, and thought all the dings on him before his draft were off base.  Ogletree has exceeded my expectations.  I'd love to get a big, versatile athlete at the ILB position.  Raekwon McMillan and Reuben Foster look like they're it for this class.  Have to spend early picks to get linebackers with their kind of athletic ability.

[TheGoodBits]

I'm putting this here because this thread tends to lead to higher quality discussion than general Stadium threads... 

It's still too early for definitive analysis on Scot's first two drafts, but early returns are really frustrating to me. The opportunity cost of several of these picks has been significant, and coupled with lack of a consistent organizational vision between the coaches and front office, has significantly hampered the pace of Scot's attempt to build a contender. I'm not going to through every single draft pick because this is all hindsight, instead I'll focus on early picks where there were distinct alternatives available.

Examples of what I'm talking about: 

-Scherff at #5 overall. Big, strong, mean OL that is going to anchor the interior OL for quite some time. But a top 5 pick is really high for an interior OL. They were apparently expecting him to play RT when they drafted him, but that's still really high for a RT. Opportunity cost? This one's easy to see. Leonard Williams was picked one spot later, looks like a star in the making, and would have filled a position of dire need for the Skins. RG could have been filled via FA or given another young player a shot.

-Matt Jones in the 3rd round. I was on record at the time thinking that round 3 was high for a RB on a team that had so many holes. I'm actually really happy with how Jones has run the ball this year. Pleasantly surprised. The opportunity cost here really has more to do with the lack of organizational vision than anything else. There has been a lot of lip service about being a running team, but through most of last year and so far this year that couldn't be further from the truth. Jones is getting 10-15 carries per game. So even if he's turning into a good RB, that's close to a wasted pick given how little he's been used. Opportunity cost? There were several Dlinemen and Olinemen taken right after Jones (who was viewed by many analysts as a bit of a reach in the 3rd to begin with).

-Doctson at #22. This is tough for me because you see a young player that has a lot of potential in a position that will be a "need" in a year or two with Garçon and Djax walking. But you just locked up Reed longterm, you've got Crowder for awhile, you could maybe look at re-signing Garçon for fairly cheap given his age and production to have a decent outside WR for a few more years. You could also draft a WR later in the draft or even next year. Opportunity cost? A lot of the top Dlinemen absolutely flew off the board right after this pick. Tough pill to swallow for fans who see the holes and see Doctson getting limited reps so far. 

-Kendall Fuller in the 3rd. Gambling on a player that flipped due to injury. Fuller looked good in preseason but he's still buried in the depth chart and probably won't see a lot of playing time (on the outside anyway) until his 3rd year. Tough in the 3rd round again with so many holes. This pick I'll be less upset about if he starts getting more playing time in the slot. Too early to call here. Opportunity cost though? Several more Dlinemen came off the board after this pick. 

So now, two years into Scot's tenure, we've invested multiple premium picks on offense with seemingly differing philosophies (are we a running team or passing team?). We've completely neglected the Dline, and we have a team that can't stop the run to save their lives. And worst, we don't even have any good young players that at that position that we are counting on to improve that group. 

 

[RemoveSnyder]

18 hours ago, stevemcqueen1 said:

You're exaggerating the quality of the Stanford line.  They're good, but they're not special.  They're not in the same class as Alabama, LSU, FSU, Ohio State, USC, Notre Dame, etc.

As a unit they look like one of the best coached and most assignment driven lines I've seen so far this year. Haven't watched everyone yet. 

I wouldn't expect anything less though. Everytime I tune in, I see each guy across the board doing his job. I see a hat on a hat. I see defenders being turned, being knocked down, and lanes being created. They seem to repeatedly get forward push and stifle the rush.  

Whether they are classified as good, as opposed to great, or special, I'm not really interested in that right now. Nor am I quantifying the quality of the entire line by how many NFL prospects they might have.

[RemoveSnyder]

19 hours ago, stevemcqueen1 said:

This is elite creativity

Honestly, I'm not so concerned with how well he can manage to dodge a blow or slip a tackle in college, I'm more interested in how well he can take a hit, after a hit, after a hit. For whatever the Pac-12 is, it isn't the NFL. Oregon State and Cal just don't hit like the Steelers or Broncos or whoever. All I know is that he'll get hit in the NFL. And he'll get hit if he's behind our line.

Incidentally, those gifs show some excellent blocking. I see a lot of those great jukes and cutbacks being afforded by the blocking. They seem to setup a scenario where McCaff gets open field, full head of steam, with an Iso on a single defender.

I see running lanes, solid primary, secondary and tertiary blocking. Even if there was a kamikaze defender trying to penetrate, it gets shielded and then creates vertical lanes. There's some real good blocking from the receivers as well on many of McCaff's big runs. They seem to account for everyone and are assignment driven. Not perfect but very solid. 

Bigger picture: whatever it is that McCaffrey can become in the NFL, I just don't believe (or trust) that he'll become that here with the Redskins organization.

[Koolblue13]

On 9/18/2016 at 7:28 PM, Monk4thaHALL said:

We need an Olgetree, Shazier, Sean Lee type. 

 

God, I've been begging for this for years. I was thinking watching the steelers game, they just constantly draft LBers and Dline year after year. Seems like they're always drafting one in the first three rounds. They grab the occasional skill offensive player and they usually fit in, because of the consistency they have on offense, but they're constantly investing in their front 7.

[RemoveSnyder]

Stat of the Week

Christian McCaffrey finished with 165 rushing yards in Stanford's 27-10 win over USC. Of those 165 yards, 107 of them came before contact. Not after contact. Before contact.

Think about that. This isn't because McCaffrey was lining up 40 yards behind the line of scrimmage as all 107 of those yards came at the line of scrimmage and beyond. He had 107 yards on 30 carries before every being touched.

That means McCaffrey was averaging 3.5 yards per carry before a USC defender even laid a finger on him.

What this says to me is that the o-line was blocking well. 

[Going Commando]

22 hours ago, Monk4thaHALL said:

Incidentally, those gifs show some excellent blocking. I see a lot of those great jukes and cutbacks being afforded by the blocking. They seem to setup a scenario where McCaff gets open field, full head of steam, with an Iso on a single defender.

 

I specifically chose those plays because none of them were well blocked and all of them involved McCaffery having to create behind the LoS.

Gif #1 - Both the TE and the LT miss their assignments and the two defenders run free into the play and almost blow it up in the backfield if not for McCaffery's stutter step and cutback which turned a three or four yard loss into a first down.  The RG also got beat off the snap and gave up run penetration that closed off the right cutback lane.

Gif #2 - The B gap was the point of attack on this run but the RT got pushed back and lost the lane to his man.  McCaffery had to bounce it out wide, where the SS and MLB were unblocked.  McCaffery broke both of their tackles and took a two or three yard gain for 13.

Gif #3 - It pains me to see this, but my boy Josh Garnett #51 missed his assignment on this play.  The screen took a really long time to develop and the LBer surprised Garnett with how fast he read it and closed on the ball.  Garnett had just turned his head downfield after delivering his punch to #97 and he had his weight traveling in the wrong direction when he saw the LBer to stick that block.  McCaffery broke the guy's tackle though.  Then broke the backside pursuit's (#9) tackle.  Then he made four more guys miss and ultimately turned a three yard loss into a 47 yard TD.

Gif #4 -  Good runners make the lives of their blockers easier by covering for their mistakes, and that's what McCaffery does here.  This is a long developing off tackle run where the PoA is the right C gap.  The RT is the weak link on this line, and he's now playing LT this season, a switch that I assume is justified for his pass blocking, not run blocking.  Anyway, the RT lost the PoA and gave up the penetration.  But McCaffery saw it coming and actually cuts up field early into the B gap before making  that monster lateral cut that hurtled the DE.  Then he quickly cuts back up field to avoid the closing slot defender (the slot receiver fell off his block and actually ends up getting away with a block in the back).  Then McCaffery gets skinny and hides behind his TE riding the SS until he seals him outside.  Then he explodes up field towards the sideline and makes the FS miss and gains about 19 yards.

Nine out of ten running backs see their RT lose the point of attack and bounce that run out wide from the get go and get stopped at or behind the LoS by that slot defender.  Especially since the RG also gave up a lot of backfield penetration in the middle.  But McCaffery covered for the mistakes of both the RT and the slot receiver by actually taking it inside first and then using that incredible lateral explosiveness to string it back out into the A gap and run behind that TE.

The kid is special.  He is so good at so many different aspects of the position, but his creativity and vision as a runner are what sets him apart.  If you liked Ameer Abdullah in 2015 or Jahvid Best back in 2010, then you love McCaffery.  He's bigger than them and does just about everything better.   He won't run as fast a 40 as Best did, but he should run faster than Abdullah's time.  I don't see any real weaknesses in his game.

Your concerns about him being able to handle the physicality and talent of the NFL strike me as generic concerns that apply to every single college RB making the jump to the NFL.  And I get feeling uneasy about spending a high pick on a RB due to concerns that Jay won't use and develop the position properly.  But again, that applies to any running back we would draft.  That's also a coaching deficiency rather than a deficiency in McCaffery.  It'd be a shame to pass on such a good back because Jay isn't a good enough coach to use him, because that'd be a pretty strong argument for firing Jay.

[httrcirca87]

What do you guys think about Jamal Adams?

[Koolblue13]

Who are the top MLB prospects?

[AlvinWaltonIsMyBoy]

26 minutes ago, Koolblue13 said:

Who are the top MLB prospects?

I think Steve mentioned McMillan (OSU) and Foster (Bama) above as ILBs

I really like the Zach Cunningham kid out of Vandy.  Good football player on a garbage team.  Not sure where he projects.

I also like Anthony Walker out of Northwestern.  He likes to get after it.  Probably a more traditional MLB type.  He fits the 'football player' prototype that I know you love KB. 

 

[skinsfan212689]

In my early scouting for the 2017 draft (not saying this season is over for our skins, just love college ball and the draft process) I'm noticing there will be some nice 4-3 DT's and true4-3 MLB's

Not trying to start the normal "we should go back to 4-3" but I'm intrigued. 

Im not a big fan of drafting some of these penetrating DTs and sticking them at DE in the 3-4 but I guess it depends on the player. 

[Koolblue13]

Thanks Alvin. That sack fumble around 2:30 was nasty. Would love to have a true MLB. Love it. Pretty exciting that this is a good draft for them. God, we've needed one forever.

Yeah, football player is a dumb thing to say about a football player.

Just now, skinsfan212689 said:

 

Im not a big fan of drafting some of these penetrating DTs and sticking them at DE in the 3-4 but I guess it depends on the player. 

Why not? We've got corners playing safety. OLB playing ILB. DEs playing OLB. Might as well get some DTs for DE cause it's working for our awesome defense.

[skinsfan212689]

4 minutes ago, Koolblue13 said:

Thanks Alvin. That sack fumble around 2:30 was nasty. Would love to have a true MLB. Love it. Pretty exciting that this is a good draft for them. God, we've needed one forever.

Yeah, football player is a dumb thing to say about a football player.

Why not? We've got corners playing safety. OLB playing ILB. DEs playing OLB. Might as well get some DTs for DE cause it's working for our awesome defense.

Yeah I think it's rather silly. Not like its easy being a rookie then the team draft you to play a position they think you will excel at rather than the position you excelled at your entire football career. 

Do you think Cravens would be better at Saftey based on the sample size we've seen him at LB this year. 

I think he'd outplay DB30 at that SS position with ease.  

[Rufus T Firefly]

2 hours ago, Koolblue13 said:

Who are the top MLB prospects?

The Red Sox have a young 3B named Yoan Moncada who's probably the number 1 MLB prospect.

[Koolblue13]

10 minutes ago, Rufus T Firefly said:

The Red Sox have a young 3B named Yoan Moncada who's probably the number 1 MLB prospect.

Who the **** are the red Sox?

22 minutes ago, skinsfan212689 said:

Yeah I think it's rather silly. Not like its easy being a rookie then the team draft you to play a position they think you will excel at rather than the position you excelled at your entire football career. 

Do you think Cravens would be better at Saftey based on the sample size we've seen him at LB this year. 

I think he'd outplay DB30 at that SS position with ease.  

I think he should play OLB in our 43 or ILB in our nickle.

[Rufus T Firefly]

1 hour ago, Koolblue13 said:

Who the **** are the red Sox?

The team of the century. 

[RemoveSnyder]

I hope one of you guys put money on Duke. 

[RemoveSnyder]

I see so many QBs tackled on that cowboys field who end up with shoulder and collarbone injuries. That artificial turf ain't so forgiving. 

[Going Commando]

Dexter Lawrence, that true freshman DT that Clemson has, is special.  He's a freak who is already stronger and better than all of his match ups and requires a double team every play.  He's easily going to be the best defensive linemen in CFB by the time he's a junior.  340 pounders like him just never come along.  He's like DPOY era Albert Haynesworth talented.

Carlos Watkins is a really nice player too.  Pretty good first step and he is a really good closer.  Hits hard for a DT.  Motor looks good.  Great instincts.  Knee bend is just OK, there is some stiffness in that lower half and he does raise his pads.  Those arms look pretty long.  Really curious about that measurement in particular.  My guess is he's shorter than that 6'3 listing so the arm length is going to be telling.  It seems to be the key to how he plays so strong and anchors well.  Gap sure.  Can generate push against a double.

He's just a workman that you can trust to be tough inside against the run and stay on the field for any down.  In fact I would expect him to play pass sub packages early in his career because he has some natural quickness and ability to rush the passer.

My gut says late second or early third round talent who is going to go later than that.  Maybe fourth round.  Fifth round would be on the conservative side.  He's pretty strong but he's a tad undersized by NFL standards.  And his medical history has some pretty serious stuff in it.  Maybe I'm off and he goes a lot earlier than that, the native talent and history of production will be there.  But I think he's a potential mid round gem who makes his way into your rotation as a rookie and is still in it eight years later.

[Going Commando]

Been watching Kendell Beckwith.  Big ass SEC MLB in the tradition of Brandon Spikes, Benardrick McKinney, and Reggie Ragland.  He runs pretty well though.  Better than he's given credit for.  Smooth steps, can flip his hips to open up and run, and has a clean backpedal for such a huge linebacker.  He's fine in pursuit and he has surprisingly good closing speed.  Lulls you to sleep on that because he's so measured and deliberate in almost all of his movements, but he can really explode into the play when he's going downhill.

He's ****ing strong.  Looks like the Hulk out there.  Vines for arms and has what appears to be a pretty hellacious punch.  Every once in a while he'll make planting blockers look shockingly easy.  Already has great size and he really does a good job keeping himself clean with his arm extension.  He's a good tackler and he hits very hard without having to sell out to do it.

As far as weaknesses go, he is not a quick twitch athlete and his range isn't anything to write home about.  Stiff in the knees and pad level is high as a result.  Instincts are OK and he doesn't gamble, but they're nothing special and he's not much of a playmaker.  Balance isn't great due to a top heavy build.  Spends a little more time on the ground than you like seeing.  

He's tough though.  And scary looking.  If you're trying to get bigger and more physical in your front seven, this is your guy.  If you're looking for a stud athlete who finds the ball fast and often and generates a lot of big plays, he's not it.  He is an old school assignment-sure, bruising MIKE.  My guess on his draft range is late second or third round.  I see him as a steady starter who won't see any Probowls, but is capable of establishing the tone for a good defense.

[wilco_holland]

Ik don't think we need to switch to a 4-3 because we already showing that look. I have seen some plays yesterday where we had 4 lineman on the line and at LB Su'aaaaaaaa on the weakside, Foster in the middle en compton on the strong side. 

I would really like to upgrade the middle of the D and inside of the oline. 

We need a nasty center, LG and maybe RT to become a better running team. I saw Trent Williams do stuff at guard against the Giants that I haven't seen in two years.

Had some discussion with a friend about Ethan Pocic. He really likes him in our O because he has also the ability to get to the second level like Scherff and good in pass pro. That would make is a very good screen and passing team. Only I think he is to average in terms of raw nasty power. He is not a truck who will blow people up on third and short. I rather go Voltz or Kareem Are (but injury history at o lineman)

[Going Commando]

I don't think PFF knows how to grade offensive linemen.  Particularly on run blocks and screens.  I think they focus way too much on penalties and pass blocking and are pretty subjective in how they negatively grade for pressures while acting like these grades are far more cut and dry than they actually are.  For example, a guy can get it done and keep a pocket intact by being in sync with his QB and taking the guy out of the play even if he gave up deep penetration and had to sell out/use horrible technique and lunge his ass off to do it.  Bottom line, the QB is still able to make his throw.  Likewise a player can get totally beat off the snap but it's a play design that just happens to make the defender irrelevant to the play's outcome.  In the first scenario the lineman gets penalized for giving up a pressure even though he is good enough to still recover from his mistake and save the play.  In the second scenario the lineman doesn't get penalized for losing the snap simply because the play goes away from him.  But there is no question that the lineman in the first scenario makes the better play than the one in the second.

I've had suspicions for a while that their OL grades in particular were not very good.  To be frank, I think they're laymen posing as experts, who don't really know much about blocking schemes.  And they frequently do a poor job contextualizing performances on any given play.  I don't think they do a great and consistent job of weighting degree of difficulty in plays made for a handful of positions really.  A block is not a block is not a block and a catch is not a catch is not a catch.  A first down is not a first down is not a first down.  Better players execute in difficult situations at a higher rate than lesser ones and should be highly rewarded for sticking plays when lesser players wouldn't, and clutch situation execution matters.  And yet I think they only make a serious attempt to do this kind of weighting at the QB position.

[Going Commando]

Also wanted to say that I loved what I saw from #14 Safety Corey Griffin from GT in the Clemson game.  I felt like he and that CB #20 Lawrence Austin were their only players who rose to the occasion and really battled against the Clemson guys at their own level.  That shows toughness and pride and that they can thrive at a higher level of competition.  Clemson's receivers and ball carriers are ****ing good too.

Griffin is a junior, so he's probably a 2018 prospect.  But if he does come out for the 2017 draft, I'm writing him down as a potential late round gem.  He's got good size and he is active and physical.  It's obvious that he is the leader and tone-setter and that the defense is his unit.  Run stopper first and foremost, takes good angles to the ball and doesn't shy away from getting involved in the play.  Talented tackler.  But he does hold up in coverage too and has solid ball skills.  He's confident and plays the ball in the air.  I was really impressed with how often he was able to recover into plays and make the stop after his teammates had screwed up or gotten over matched.

I think there is something to be said for a guy with NFL potential playing for a small or middling program and being forced to carry the load of being the alpha player on his offense or defense.  It forces them to become leaders and be accountable.  And gives them a chip on their shoulder that serves them well in the NFL.  So keep this kid in mind as a potential late round option at safety.

[Going Commando]

These are some gifs to illustrate my points about Kendell Beckwith:

1 - http://i.imgur.com/dFhdqki.gifv 

2 - http://i.imgur.com/u6jEbDI.gifv

1 & 2 are examples of what I mean by his balance is just ordinary and he ends up on the ground a tad more than you like to see.  In the first one you see he got locked onto the ball and didn't see the chop coming fast enough to react to it.  The result is he got taken out of the play and wasn't able to set his edge at the point of attack.  In #2 he didn't play until the whistle and didn't establish a good wide base to maintain his balance against contact so the OL plants him very easily with a simple push.

3 - http://i.imgur.com/QjKyfmG.gifv

3 is an example of what I mean when I say he is very patient and deliberate in his movements.  He sees the run coming his way and he makes a quick cut back to create more space between him and the lunging pulling blocker rather than filling head long into the gap and getting hit.  The result is he keeps his legs clean this time and that lineman ends up sprawling on the ground and taking out the lead blocker.  Beckwith stays in the play and maintains the edge and the safety makes an outstanding tackle.

4 - http://i.imgur.com/HtqRRk8.gifv

This is an example of him clicking and closing and demonstrating what I mean by saying he lulls you to sleep and then shocks you with his closing speed.  You watch his cut ups and see him picking his way around the field very carefully for 9 out of 10 plays.  And then you get to see him pursue the ball downhill and you're like woah.  He can get to the ball in a hurry when he needs to.

5 - http://i.imgur.com/6d0ybej.gifv

Demonstrates the good arm length and upper body strength that make him a handful to block.  Beckwith beats the center here and maintains the edge of the defense by extending with one arm and keeping the blocker away from his body.

6 - http://i.imgur.com/ZBes1cJ.gifv

This was my favorite play from the game.  Here you get to see that outstanding functional power in play as he decleats the lead blocker and dives into the running lane to tackle the QB.  Look at him keep those pads low, base wide, and get great lean and arm extension into the contact with the blocker.  He plants the back on his ass and is able to disengage quickly and make the stop.  That is spectacular defense of the edge.

My read on Beckwith is that he's a really safe LB prospect.  He doesn't have any serious weaknesses, he's already got great size and functional strength for an NFL LBer, and he makes very few mistakes.  He is a by the book defender that never free-lances.  As a result, he's not much of a playmaker at all.  So I don't see him going to any Probowls at the next level.  But some team is going to pick this dude and get a reliable starting linebacker for their defense for 7 or 8 seasons.  I could see the Patriots drafting him in the late second or third round.

[wilco_holland]

Interesting mock. Little to QB heavy for me: http://www.si.com/nfl/2016/09/27/nfl-mock-draft-2017-round-1-myles-garrett-deshaun-watson-jabrill-peppers