2016 National League East Division Champion: Washington Nationals Thread

[DC9]

He may have something brewing, but what they also said (I'm watching right now) is "Why not go all in your last two years with Harper?"

 

That certainly was an all in price... but it was not an all-in deal.

Dusty's face at this presser says "If they don't buy me Chapman I'm quitting."

[Taylor703]

This screams of a GM who won't be here in two years. I think Rizzo is just going "**** it". 

[Warhead36]

I dont like giving up both Lopez AND Giolito but Eaton is a hell of a ball player. Tremendous upgrade with him in the OF everyday both bat and glove. 

[CRobi21]

4 minutes ago, Warhead36 said:

I dont like giving up both Lopez AND Giolito but Eaton is a hell of a ball player. Tremendous upgrade with him in the OF everyday both bat and glove. 

And arm. I never knew about the cannon he had. Very strong, very accurate. 

 

 

[Warhead36]

And lets be real: Giolito looked mediocre last year and may not be better than a 3 starter. Lopez has great stuff but MLB history is filled with Ps who could go 98 but had no control. Very good chance neither does much while Eaton will be a damn good player on a team contending for a title. He also comes dirt cheap and is under contract for five years. 

[BRAVEONAWARPATH]

I'm not thrilled with this deal but the real prize is Robles.

 

DO NOT UNDER ANY CIRCUMSTANCES MOVE HIM.

[mammajamma]

28 minutes ago, Warhead36 said:

And lets be real: Giolito looked mediocre last year and may not be better than a 3 starter. Lopez has great stuff but MLB history is filled with Ps who could go 98 but had no control. Very good chance neither does much while Eaton will be a damn good player on a team contending for a title. He also comes dirt cheap and is under contract for five years. 

I'm seeing the positive to this as well. If we're really in win now mode, we don't need anymore prospect pitchers, we need consistent hitters (what has always haunted us in the playoffs)

[TheGoodBits]

35 minutes ago, Warhead36 said:

And lets be real: Giolito looked mediocre last year and may not be better than a 3 starter. Lopez has great stuff but MLB history is filled with Ps who could go 98 but had no control. Very good chance neither does much while Eaton will be a damn good player on a team contending for a title. He also comes dirt cheap and is under contract for five years. 

 

Thats where I am. 

 

Say Giolito ends up a middle of the rotation guy. Lopez ends up a good reliever. Dunning never cracks an MLB roster. That's a very plausible scenario. 

 

If Eaton is basically the same player he was the last two years for the next three, Rizzo won that trade. 

 

 

[Taylor703]

Dammit, Eaton seems so happy to be here. Just comes off as a very cool guy who wants to do whatever he can to win. I want to hate this trade but I'm starting to really like the guy lol

[Popeman38]

40 minutes ago, skinsfan_1215 said:

 

Thats where I am. 

 

Say Giolito ends up a middle of the rotation guy. Lopez ends up a good reliever. Dunning never cracks an MLB roster. That's a very plausible scenario. 

 

If Eaton is basically the same player he was the last two years for the next three, Rizzo won that trade. 

 

 

Isn't he under team control for the next 5 years?

[Taylor703]

Eaton already changed his twitter account and everything lol

[TheGoodBits]

1 minute ago, Popeman38 said:

Isn't he under team control for the next 5 years?

 

Yes. Just used the three years of peak performance as an example of what would constitute a win in my mind.

[PeterMP]

3 hours ago, TimmySmith said:

Nats are backed into a corner with Zim.  This is one where Rizzo totally screwed up and there are ands, ifs, or buts about it. If they can get 120ish games a season out of him over the next 3 seasons that will be victory.   

 

Eaton cost big time, but he answered a need in CF, is a left handed bat, is basically signed for 5 years and could be an all star.  Thumbs up.

 

I'm actually a WhiteSox fan (long story), but Eaton actually isn't a very good CF.  They moved him to RF this year and even after Jackson got hurt and they ended up playing garbage in center, they kept Eaton in right.  He was very strong in RF.  Even maybe gold glove worthy, but the years he played CF, he wasn't that good.

 

For whatever reason, he ended up being a much stronger RF than CF.  I suspect that's part of the issue with people's views on this trade.  If you think Eaton is going to give you good value at CF, then this makes sense.  If he's a weak defensive CF and a good defensive corner outfielder, but with weak power for a corner outfield spot, then this makes less sense.

[CRobi21]

 

[PeterMP]

To give some level of what I'm talking about.  Eaton's defensive WAR last year was 1.8.  That's primarily as a RF.  The year before (2015) that, primarily as a CF it was -1.1.

 

Now the WhiteSox defensive outfield across the board in 2015 was bad (though after Jackson got hurt this year, the only reason it was better this year was because of Easton's performance vs. last year).  Probably the worse in baseball so how much that affected Eaton's performance is unknown.  If he can give you something like 1.8 dWAR as a CF, it might be a good trade.  If he's giving something like -1.1 as CF, it is less likely to be a good trade.

 

His total WAR in 2015 was 3.9 (as a CF).  In 2016 (as a RF), it was 6.2  And he had a slightly higher OPS in 2015.

[Riggo#44]

Man...I think I am going to love Adam Eaton, especially if he can give us better defense in center (I thought he was better than he was). But I just can't help but feel the Nats overpaid here. This could be Rizzo's 1st really bad trade...

 

But then again, this could also be that we're so spoiled here when it comes to trades. We are used to the Turner/Ross deal and the Melancon deal, and his long history of fleeces, when we have to pay fair market value, or even over it, we are all like "WTF?!"

Keith Law's take:

 

Adam Eaton is a good player, a high-OBP guy with doubles power who plays his tail off all the time, but he might not fit what the Nationals really need. He’s not a center fielder, although he has played it and, I’m sure, would volunteer to go play it again. His defense in right field has been consistently outstanding -- by advanced metrics, Statcast data and scouting evaluations -- but in a season in center in 2015 he was awful, and that dropped his value to the White Sox by about two wins. The Nationals appear ready to plug him in there, but I think Bryce Harper might be the better option in center, with Eaton providing more defensive value in right anyway.

I think this would be a huge overpay for Eaton the player, but the Nats are also acquiring the contract he’s already signed to: three more guaranteed years and two option years for $38.4 million total if both options are exercised. If he’s even a four-win player, which he has surpassed in his two full seasons as a right fielder, that screams "bargain" for the Nats' budget and does a lot to justify the high price they paid in prospects.

The White Sox got a huge return in pitching: two big league starters and one big league reliever, all guys who should pitch for the major league club in 2017. Lucas Giolito is a former first-rounder and former No. 1 overall prospect whose fastball has been clocked as high as 98 mph. He complements that with an out-pitch curveball and a solid to average changeup, although he didn’t show that kind of stuff in a brief major league trial last year.

What went wrong? The Nationals tried to change his delivery earlier in the season, because sometimes teams just do dumb things. That affected Giolito’s mechanics and command even later into the season. While his velocity was fine -- he hit 96 mph several times, and his median velocity was right around 94 -- he didn’t get ahead in enough counts to get to his curveball and generated only a 6 percent swing-and-miss rate, way below what his stuff should generate. Now that he’s in a new organization, one with a great track record of developing pitchers, Giolito should be able to reset his mechanics and get back to the results he had before 2016. The stuff and athleticism are all still there.

Reynaldo Lopez has a huge arm, sitting at 96-99 mph with his fastball as a starter and hitting 100 mph on occasion with relatively little effort. However, he has an arm-heavy delivery, and his fastball doesn’t have great plane or spin to it. I think that in the long run he'll have to be a reliever, where he’ll probably sit in the 98-100 mph range and complement it with a curveball that is hard but not terribly tight; it should be more effective as a pitch a hitter might see once from him in a game.

Lastly, Dane Dunning was one of the Nats’ supplemental-round picks this past June, a three-pitch starter who worked in relief for the University of Florida because their pitching staff was so loaded. I think he could move fairly quickly through the system. If he starts the 2017 season at High-A, he could end up in the majors by September.

 

[Metalhead]

As I keep thinking about it, the trade itself doesn't bother me. What bothers me are the two other scenarios that were available - keeping the prospects while resigning Revere or keeping the prospects while signing Fowler. The easist of the two (resigning Revere) when compared to tonights' trade is essentially this:

 

Revere + Giolito + Lopez + Dunning = Eaton

 

That does bother me a bit.

[Riggo#44]

 

[Bacon]

It was a bad trade and we did give up too much, but life goes on, and with a very good centerfielder to boot.

[TimmySmith]

8 hours ago, PeterMP said:

 

I'm actually a WhiteSox fan (long story), but Eaton actually isn't a very good CF.  They moved him to RF this year and even after Jackson got hurt and they ended up playing garbage in center, they kept Eaton in right.  He was very strong in RF.  Even maybe gold glove worthy, but the years he played CF, he wasn't that good.

 

For whatever reason, he ended up being a much stronger RF than CF.  I suspect that's part of the issue with people's views on this trade.  If you think Eaton is going to give you good value at CF, then this makes sense.  If he's a weak defensive CF and a good defensive corner outfielder, but with weak power for a corner outfield spot, then this makes less sense.

This move was for offense.  The fact that Eaton has experience in center was the clincher.  It wouldn't surprise me if Eaton and Harper swapped RF and CF.

 

The Nats have suffered with too many low OBP guys.  No table setters, no one who could move runners over.  Very little flexibility. They are hoping Eaton can help out in that respect.  Solid defense is all that is required.

[Popeman38]

I prefer Jansen to Chapman.  It's only a matter of time before Chapman's arm has issues. 104 from a skinny guy like him isn't sustainable IMO.

[SemperFi Skins]

Bryce Harper ‏@Bharper3407 14h14 hours ago

Welcome to DC A.E! Let's get it done #nationals

[skinfan2k]

Adding another contact hitter to this lineup will be great.  We really need to figure out 1st base.  We just need Zimm to hit .260

[Riggo#44]

 

 

 

[TimmySmith]

29 minutes ago, Popeman38 said:

I prefer Jansen to Chapman.  It's only a matter of time before Chapman's arm has issues. 104 from a skinny guy like him isn't sustainable IMO.

Jansen is the best closer in the league IMO, and his contract should be north of Chapman's.  I am not sure it's worth it over the long haul to keep pushing huge contracts out there.