The price we paid to get RGIII doesn't matter!

[Tomel]

Been a fan for about 60 years now. I don't post too often, but am concerned that a decision about RGIII's future with the organization will be based on all the draft picks we gave to move up and select him in the draft.

 

I keep reading some variation of the same statement over and over -- "given what RGIII cost us in terms of top draft picks we just have to do everything we can to turn him into our franchise quarterback."

 

Wrong! Wrong! Wrong! Haven't any of these writers heard about the business concept of "sunk costs"?

 

If you own a stock with a current market value of $3, should your decision to continue holding the stock or to sell it be based on the fact that you originally bought it 3 years ago for $100?

 

If you purchased a home before the crash for $500,000, does your original purchase price have any bearing on what a potential buyer will pay for your home today?

 

Sure, what we paid for RGIII may turn out to have been a big mistake. It may be maddening to think of how we could have rebuilt the OLine if we had had all those draft picks back. It will certainly be embarrassing to Snyder and Allen if RGIII is ultimately a flop. However . . . hindsight is 20/20. What we paid for RGIII is a sunk cost that we need to try and forget. For the future betterment of our skins, let's hope that that those in power will make the best decision based on what we know TODAY and what is controllable TODAY -- not based on what was done in the past.

 

 

 

[Boss_Hogg]

Yeah but Danny made a friend, he can't let him go.

IMO That's worth three number ones and two.

[RFKFedEx]

Lavar, Clinton, Robert... who will be the next pet diva?

[REEGSKINS]

forget what we gave up to get him think about how he played and how you felt as a fan when we were winning in 2012. think about the 8 tds THROWN in 5 DAYS. he has it in him. we just need the right coach now. gruden is in way over his head imo

[Burgold]

At the same time, look how long teams stuck with Young, Elway, and other phenoms even though they played like bums initially.  Even today, look at how unwilling the Rams and Lions are going, unwilling to let go of their oft injured disappointing franchise QBs. 

 

There are still legit questions about Griffin

 

A) is he too shell shocked by the injuries, poor line play, and the effects of his own bad decision making to regain his mojo and confidence. Is he broken?

can any quarterback succeed under the conditions that RGIII, Cousins, and McCoy played under this year and last (IE line and scheme)

C) Can the problems be fixed in time to salvage RGIII.

D) Can he become an effective QB

E) Is the greatness we saw in pocket presence, elusiveness, and accuracy from his rookie year gone forever

 

I don't think we know the answers to these.  Some of the data looks bad, but the fact that every QB starts off well and then falls off a cliff in 2014 speaks to factors outside of RGIII.

[SWFLSkins]

He showed flashes of his potential, it was not a coincidence that he was ranked so high by so many draftniks. This was not a reach, the kid has potential that our team has seemingly squashed. Same as Alfred Morris, and Darryl Young. 

 

It is what most said it was, It's the ****ing OL. 

 

Look at the Cowboys this year, only diff, they invested heavily in the OL, even ****ing **** **** Jerry knows you got to protect Romo sucks and to have a run game to balance it out. Coincidence that Murray leads the NFL in rushing? durh. It's the OL. It's the LOS on both sides of the ball. We suck at the trenches. We are the French in WWII, we hand out bouquets and baguettes to opposing teams at the LOS> 

 

Oh yeah, I'm Mad as HEll. 

 

Our OL makes turnstiles look dominate. You can rush four and get pressure. 

 

You don't go and buy a new vette with no tires or brakes, you going to wreck it. 

 

Joe Gibbs won three SB's with three different QB's, everyone loves to repeat it. What they don't say is he won with three different backs all behind dominate OL's. duhr again. 

[RyansRangers]

Getting rid of rg is a mistake we, if gruden can't act and be a leader then shame on him.. He is the head coach its your job to deal with difficult people and correct them... I'm getting the feeling he came here for the money and knew griffin could get him fired and full pay

[spaceman47]

I didn't mind the decision at the time.  We have needed a franchise QB for how many decades now?  Once we realized that McNabb was a bust though I saw the organization not rush in and grabbing the first QB they saw available.  It seemed like they took a breather and tried to fill other positions.  And some good came out of that, ie Kerrigan.   We dealt with an obvious backup in Grossman and waited for our future QB...enter Griffin.  At the time, everyone thought this kid was going to be a franchise QB.  He seemed to be a winner, military family so I thought he knew his place as a player, great work ethic, and at the time seemed like he understood the game and could be a smart QB.  Looking back I thought we made the right move.  This is why people are saying that he may be among the biggest busts ever.

[Bantu]

I think if this organization is going to turn the corner and become a real franchise, then it has to find a way to keep guys under contract on the team and make them earn a spot, including RGIII. Make him earn the spot, because the truth is, he has played himself on to the bench.

[theTruthTeller]

I can't imagine a scenario where (1) RG3 wants to stay here for lower tier money after his contract ends after next season or (2) the organization is willing to put up franchise money, which will be on the order of $16 - 22M per year, depending on whether they exercise the extension option this offseason.  I think at the end of the season Robert will make that crystal clear to the FO and a trade will be made before the May option deadline.

 

Everyone knows that the OL is the problem.  Everyone should know that it can't be fixed in a year.  Dallas used three #1s over 4 years, and that was super aggressive.  It wasn't until this year that the line was considered to be even above average.  And they got very lucky in Martin, who is probably the best OG, if not the best lineman, in the game.  RG3 can't wait four years to have a good line, and there is no way that Snyder will be disciplined enough to spend 3 out of the next four #1s on OL.  More likely, it will be more of the same - maybe a first on OL this year, then fill in the gaps with 3s and 4s and pretend that something is being done.

 

I hope RG3 lands on a team that has an established QB that he can learn from.  And I hope that the Skins finally make a plan to rebuild the team and stick with it.  Bad starters + inexperienced coaching = hot mess.

[SkinsManNJ]

He showed flashes of his potential, it was not a coincidence that he was ranked so high by so many draftniks. This was not a reach, the kid has potential that our team has seemingly squashed. Same as Alfred Morris, and Darryl Young.

It is what most said it was, It's the ****ing OL.

Look at the Cowboys this year, only diff, they invested heavily in the OL, even ****ing **** **** Jerry knows you got to protect romoSUCKS sucks and to have a run game to balance it out. Coincidence that Murray leads the NFL in rushing? durh. It's the OL. It's the LOS on both sides of the ball. We suck at the trenches. We are the French in WWII, we hand out bouquets and baguettes to opposing teams at the LOS>

Oh yeah, I'm Mad as HEll.

Our OL makes turnstiles look dominate. You can rush four and get pressure.

You don't go and buy a new vette with no tires or brakes, you going to wreck it.

Joe Gibbs won three SB's with three different QB's, everyone loves to repeat it. What they don't say is he won with three different backs all behind dominate OL's. duhr again.

Truth!!! I agree 100%. With or without Griff. Fix the OL and watch how much better all 3 of QB's do. Even Griff will fair much better. Gruden may not like it but he would have to get over it. Gruden is going into overdrive in his beat down RGIII campaign. I'm getting a little tired of it we all know he doesn't like Griff at all, but c'mon man beat him down in the media all the time and sugar coat for KC and CM that's BS.

Fix the OL because all 3 are struggling behind this one. Gruden needs to open his damn eyes and admit the OL is the issue. Not just Griff.

[ZRagone]

I keep reading some variation of the same statement over and over -- "given what RGIII cost us in terms of top draft picks we just have to do everything we can to turn him into our franchise quarterback."

 

Wrong! Wrong! Wrong! Haven't any of these writers heard about the business concept of "sunk costs"?

 

Agree completely, and have said as much numerous times on here. HOWEVER, there's a caveat here because you're only presenting one way this can work...

 

We should not continue to push on with Robert simply because we sunk a lot of draft picks into getting him.

 

HOWEVER...

 

We also should not judge whether or not to keep Robert based on whether or not he lived up to the "Cost" it took to get him.

 

He should be judged...for good or ill...based on what this staff feels he can bring to the team in the future. Not on his draft position, not on his cost, but simply that.

 

You're dead on about sunk cost, and it's why I don't subscribe to either thought process. Those going "We spent so much, we have to keep trying with him!" or those going "He's a bust and failure for how much we gave up to get him, move on!".

 

(Surprisingly, the same notion of sunk cost could be applied to the threads talking about gruden as well, but that's probably best left for those threads).

 

Keep Robert. Don't keep Robert. That's a legitimate debate. But do it based on what the staff believes he can do on the field for this team, and based on a cost benefit analysis of the future not the past. DON'T do it based off having given up so much for him, or having not lived up to the amount we paid to ge thim.

[Skins Wingman]

we spent too much for him to let him go after basically 2 years of playing time. we've seen what he can do when the offense is built specifically for him in 2012. in 2013, they wanted him to run less and become a better passer. he wasnt terrible, but what i would expect out of a "rookie". it seemed they were slowly trying to work him in to a more traditional offense, but the read option and running were still there. looking back at everything now, it probably would have been better to keep the shanahans around and continue to work rg3 into the offense. its easy to say that now but at the time me and everybody else thought shanahan was the problem. i dont think he was now. changing coaches and offenses was the worst thing we could have done for rg3, and now its biting us in the ass. hes had 4 games with gruden and everybody is writing him off already.

[RedskinsFan44]

The draft picks are water under the bridge.  We can keep him here another year for cheap, and I doubt what we would get in a trade at this point (4th rounder?) would have more potential upside than keeping him on and seeing if he can get his head straight.

[skins214428hail]

If the Redskins were Warren buffett they could hold onto that stock and wait for it to rise. But the skins are no warren buffett. We are more of a penny stocks type of guy. We buy and sell on the daily. This franchise does not have the mentality to wait for a return on there investment. The skins bought there RG3 stock when it was at his highest. The franchise will need to be patient for any return on this investment. Which I don't see happening. We shouldn't sell while the stock is low.  

[Monkskin81]

Getting rid of rg is a mistake we, if gruden can't act and be a leader then shame on him.. He is the head coach its your job to deal with difficult people and correct them... I'm getting the feeling he came here for the money and knew griffin could get him fired and full pay

I couldn't disagree more.  If you have a player who has shown his incompetence in running the team, why keep him?  People say "he showed what he can be in 2012".  Considering since then he has been horrible, it seems more likely it was a fluke. So many reports that Robert is not well liked.  If it were 1 report, I would dismiss it, but it is everywhere.  You don't hire a coach to fix a player.  You hire a coach to fix a team.  You do this by removing the bad apples, the players who are underperforming, and the coaches who are underperforming. Robert was benched by Gruden and Shanahan, see a theme building here? Gruden has been here almost 1 year.  Let him have a draft or two to bring in some players.  They hired him to run his system(s) and to be the Head Coach.  They didn't hire him to run Shanahan's system or to run his system with Shanahan's players.  We Redskins fans always want to win NOW, and maybe because we rarely ever do.  Look at how we have reached this point, hastily made decisions.  Robert has played 3 years on a 4 year deal.  He played in 15 games 1st year, 13 games 2nd year, 5 games this year (not counting the St. Louis game).  Let him go.  We gave him nearly his whole contract and he finished somewhere around 12-20 as a starter.  He has not improved, he has regressed.  Two coaches have attempted to better him and the team, Robert is the odd man out. Tack it up as a loss and move on? or hang on to dead weight just because you "hope" he can be good, "hope" people in the locker room change their minds about him?  No brainer for me.

[nfl guru]

If the Redskins were Warren buffett they could hold onto that stock and wait for it to rise. But the skins are no warren buffett. We are more of a penny stocks type of guy. We buy and sell on the daily. This franchise does not have the mentality to wait for a return on there investment. The skins bought there RG3 stock when it was at his highest. The franchise will need to be patient for any return on this investment. Which I don't see happening. We shouldn't sell while the stock is low.  

This is correct.  We paid the fare to get into the show, someone else will get essentially a free chance to add a 25 year old former ROY at the games most valuable position.  

 

We need to see every last attempt to validate that Griffin is not the guy here.  I feel 4 games is not even close to enough time and before people chime in with "well its been 3 years", Griffin has basically played in 3 different offenses.  There were expected growing pains and this coaching staff isn't making it any easier.

 

Patience is something I wish this franchise had.  But judging by recent articles, Gruden had his mind made up before week 1 so there's not much chance we'll show patience with this process.

[Rskins06]

SMH!!! RG3 has shown ZERO since 2012, has had 2 HCs give up on him and want to move on without him and we still have fans who swear by him and blame the coaches instead of him, he is not a quality NFL QB and is a very raw project. However, if they want to keep him (ABSOLUTELY not picking up 5th yr option) and see if the light bulb will finally come on, so be it. He should not be handed the starting job, he should have to earn his roster spot, which means, you go into offseason with a QB competition, if he fails to progress, you cut him or release him. 2012 was a long time ago, that was a gimmick offense to try and hide his flaws, he would not be successful in that offense again, teams have figured him out, he does not scare ANYONE in this league anymore.

At this point, I don't believe the distraction of keeping him on the team is worth it anymore. You lost the picks, they are not coming back, let him go try and be successful somewhere else.

[airborneskins]

Getting rid of rg is a mistake we, if gruden can't act and be a leader then shame on him.. He is the head coach its your job to deal with difficult people and correct them... I'm getting the feeling he came here for the money and knew griffin could get him fired and full pay

Hey Ryan.  Where have you been hiding?  Good to see that you are still around brother.

 

With that being said, I disagree with what you said.  Sitting behind the bench at every home game I have watched RG3 and yes he was fantastic in 2012, but has done nothing to show me that he can do it again. He is constantly missing people that are open and refuses to run.  Unfortunately his stubborn headedness (running back onto the field without checking with the coach after the doc checked him out)  in the Seattle playoff game has ruined him here in Washington.  This franchise has a ton of holes to fill and keeping RG3 here is not going allow us to fix them.  It's time to suck It up and drive on without him.  This team will not be able to have a franchise QB until it fixes the O-line and gives the QB time to make football plays.  That looks like (at a minimum) it will still be a couple of years away (if we are lucky).

 

The jury is still out on Gruden.  He needs a season with no drama (good luck with that here in DC).  I believe that he has it in him to turn this thing around, but I fear that until Snyder and Allen let him do his job as a head football coach he wont be able to.  Changing coaches after 1 year is not a formula for success.

[TimmySmith]

If the Redskins were Warren buffett they could hold onto that stock and wait for it to rise. But the skins are no warren buffett. We are more of a penny stocks type of guy. We buy and sell on the daily. This franchise does not have the mentality to wait for a return on there investment. The skins bought there RG3 stock when it was at his highest. The franchise will need to be patient for any return on this investment. Which I don't see happening. We shouldn't sell while the stock is low.  

Brother, it's only going to get lower.  We need to sell before it hits bottom, while people still think he can outrun linebackers and work in some sort of offense.

[LightningBuggs]

SMH!!! RG3 has shown ZERO since 2012, has had 2 HCs give up on him and want to move on without him and we still have fans who swear by him and blame the coaches instead of him, he is not a quality NFL QB and is a very raw project. However, if they want to keep him (ABSOLUTELY not picking up 5th yr option) and see if the light bulb will finally come on, so be it. He should not be handed the starting job, he should have to earn his roster spot, which means, you go into offseason with a QB competition, if he fails to progress, you cut him or release him. 2012 was a long time ago, that was a gimmick offense to try and hide his flaws, he would not be successful in that offense again, teams have figured him out, he does not scare ANYONE in this league anymore.

At this point, I don't believe the distraction of keeping him on the team is worth it anymore. You lost the picks, they are not coming back, let him go try and be successful somewhere else.

 

I almost stood up and applauded this post.

 

Amen!

[Tomel]

ZRagone . . . I totally agree with your post. In my OP, I didn't say to either keep RGIII or get rid of him. I said the decision had to be based on the current and future expectations, not on what we paid to acquire him.

 

skins214428hail . . .  you said "shouldn't sell when the stock is low." Sorry, I disagree with your basic point. You buy or sell based on a current evaluation and expectations for the future, not based on what you paid for the stock or whether it's high or low or the market's current emotions (i'm a retired investment guy and learned this on the firing line). Things change. It might be low for a valid reason that was not apparent when you bought the stock. Peoples emotions swing widely and erratically and cannot be relied upon to make buy / sell decisions. Point is that you have to constantly re-assess your position based on the best information you have TODAY and act accordingly! You can't let what you paid, what you can get, or how other people feel influence your decision.

 

Although I did not take a position on RGIII in my initial post . . . let me take one now. Seems to me he was successful in 2012 because he played very much like he played in college. He did great. So why not just create an offense tailored to the skills he demonstrated in 2012. In my humble opinion, that might work . . . but for how long? Does anyone out there think that RGIII could play like he played in 2012 and have an extended career in the NFL? His physical make-up and recuperative abilities are not going to get better each year (or, at least, mine haven't). Given this, the question I think that needs to be answered is has he shown any potential to become more of a pocket passer and, if not, is it because he hasn't been given enough opportunity or because it's simply not in his make-up?

[s0crates]

Of course you're right about sunk costs, I agree that "look how much we've invested" is not a good reason to keep him.

However I think there are good reasons to keep him.

1. He does have upside. He won Heisman and RotY, his recent struggles could be a slump he pulls himself out of.

When deciding whether to keep a stock you need to consider its potential value in the future (not the initial investment, as correctly noted in the OP). If the stock has reasonable potential to increase in value, then you don't want to sell low.

It seems to me that there is an argument to be made that Robert can deliver value in the future. He certainly has the physical tools.

2. Robert is still under his rookie contract.

Suppose you're a TV network CEO, and you've already purchased the broadcast rights to some sporting events for the year. Suppose further that the revenue hasn't been as high as you hoped on those broadcasts, and you are not planning to renew the contract. Wouldn't you still air the events you already paid to broadcast this year regardless of your plans to give up the contract next year?

Or to give another example, suppose you run a coffee shop and are deciding to switch the cups you use, wouldn't you still use the cups already in your inventory before making the switch?

Likewise, shouldn't we keep Robert around for his last contract year?

[mammajamma]

forget what we gave up to get him think about how he played and how you felt as a fan when we were winning in 2012. think about the 8 tds THROWN in 5 DAYS. he has it in him. we just need the right coach AND offensive line now. gruden is in way over his head imo

 

added something in there, but other than that, completely agree.

[Rskins06]

forget what we gave up to get him think about how he played and how you felt as a fan when we were winning in 2012. think about the 8 tds THROWN in 5 DAYS. he has it in him. we just need the right coach now. gruden is in way over his head imo

Great, he threw 8TDs in 5 days 2 yrs ago. He has thrown 2 TDs in 4 games this year, that equates to 8TDs for the entire year. I thought he played great in 2012, however, since then, he has gotten worse, not a little worse but he is horribly worse. What coach? 2 consectutive HCs have benched him 2 years in a row. Besides going to a 100% RO offense, what offense can he run? I am not convinced he could even be successful in 2012's offense now, he has lost his speed, DCs know he can't read defenses quickly and know if they bring pressure, he will fold. In 2012, he was an annomaly, now, everyone knows who he is on the field. That player in 2012 is forever gone and will not be seen again.