Team-by-Team High Round (1/2) Selections on the Fronts - Note: We're Not Good.

[Birdlives]

Here's an interesting way to look at the situation. If you go back through 25 drafts and calculate hits in the first round you'll likely see a 50-60% hit rate with the return diminishing for every round after. So, if you draft an offensive lineman in every 1st round for five straight years, with an average spot between 10 and 20, you'll get between 2 and 4 starting caliber offensive linemen who will last an average of 4-7 years in terms of productivity. That's five first round picks on "one" position. The reality is that you're actually drafting for between 3 and 5 positions if you take into consideration basic capabilities and sides. That doesn't even consider chemistry which is equally important. The idea that you would draft this position, not to mention defensive line as an after thought seems ridiculous. The variables are so against your success you'd want to increase your odds, no? Then consider how much money signing players outside the draft costs. It should be wow.

[TSO]

Great thread, and something that becomes more and more obvious as time goes on.

 

I'm a big BPA guy, but, yeah, Oline/Dline should be prioritized much, MUCH more. Whether draft or free agency, but mainly draft. If Oline/Dline weren't best players at the time of our pick, we should've moved down and taken one where they are BPA while grabbing more picks. It's gone up a little since Shanny arrived, but it looks like none of the guys are panning out, really. Which is a huge shame.

 

As an aside, I have a little theory about why Moses and Long were drafted and why it seems like there is a refusal to play them this year. I think Gruden came here fully intending to change the running scheme, and with it the Oline, but understood that it'd take more than one year to get the Oline he wants. So he decided to keep the ZBS for one year while we work on grabbing Oline that'll fit his style more. It's why Polombus and Chester get to keep their jobs and weren't even threatened.   

 

We drafted two bigger, more powerful but less athletic Olinemen in Moses and Long to groom for when it's completely changed up next year, and we brought in a bigger guy in Lauvao as well (though he's looking like the mistake many thought he was when we first signed him). I think we're going to see Moses, Long and either someone via FA or the draft take starting spots immediately. The only two holdovers might end up being Licht and Trent. It'll essentially ruin the ZBS but we'll have a bigger Oline that can anchor better in pass pro and run a power scheme. 

 

One of the biggest issues with hiring Shanahan was that it was an organizational commitment to the ZBS, which meant a certain type of RB and a certain type of Olineman. Having it not work out long term is devastating in that a huge chunk of players, on offense at least, don't fit the majority of what other coaches in the NFL are looking for. It stinks. 

[redskindan07]

I see all of that changing in this years draft

[SkinsFTW]

 It stinks. 

 

What stinks is that, like the 4-3 defense last time, they felt the need to change something that's working out top 10 or better in the NFL before they changed it. Watch us never have a 5ypc 2700+ yard running game again like we did in 2012, or even a 2100 yard running game like we had last year.

 

At the current pace we may not even have a 1600 yard running game this year with what is supposed to be a better OL.

 

They even kept the OL coach too, for what reason? Nobody knows.

[TSO]

What stinks is that, like the 4-3 defense last time, they felt the need to change something that's working out top 10 or better in the NFL before they changed it. Watch us never have a 5ypc 2700+ yard running game again like we did in 2012, or even a 2100 yard running game like we had last year.

 

At the current pace we may not even have a 1600 yard running game this year with what is supposed to be a better OL.

 

They even kept the OL coach too, for what reason? Nobody knows.

 

Yeah, I don't know... It's hard to really blame anyone for that outside of Shanahan himself for failing to do what he came here for. It would've been nice to have more continuity and it would've been awesome if part of the long term vision of Shanahan worked out, but as it stands now it's looking like nothing will remain nor should it, really. One of the reasons I was so happy after 2012 was because, for the first time ever, it felt like we actually were seeing the fruits of a rebuild with a franchise QB in place and that we'd finally have a long term identity in which to apply our personnel acquisition to. All that went to crap in 2013 and that's why it was so devastating. It wasn't just a head coach failing... it was everything about the organization and all that was built to that point.    

 

I was happy to hear Gruden say we're keeping the same running game, but a part of the issue is that it means we have smaller linemen that simply can't anchor and get pushed back too often in pass pro. Even if they don't get beat, they're all over the place and aren't forming a nice, consistent pocket because of that. So I don't blame him for wanting to go away from that. It just means we don't get a long term benefit from what was working before personnel-wise (ZBS in this case). At least we're still using it this year, so it's not like it's been totally scrapped right away. A lot of other coaches would've come here and forced their system in, so it's hard to really blame Gruden here and I like that we hired the coach who would be willing to adapt to personnel in this way. That being said, we're still losing so I don't know how much better that decision has made us. 

 

But this is the general negative of having a head coach fail, especially one who has very specific personnel-requirements. Whether he was in charge of personnel or not, we were going to get the style of Oline and RBs that fit his scheme. That style just isn't good enough to handle bigger Dlines in obvious passing downs, but if everything is working well and the running game is operating at a high level, you don't have many of those downs in the first place. We barely got to see the benefit of that outside of 2012. So, right now, it's a major issue that we can't get the running game to work consistently. And, if that's the case, you might as well plug in Moses and Long from now since it's not like Chester and Polumbus are giving us a big advantage to run the ball.                

 

And, yeah, I agree with you. I'm starting to really take issue with Foerster and what seems like a lack of any development from the young guys we've brought in at that position. It's hard to believe they just all stink, but that could be it. Ugh. 

[Voice_of_Reason]

I've pointed this out before, but another atrocious stat is that there are zero players on the roster that the Redskins drafted prior to the 2009 draft. The 2009 draft has 1 guy, Orakpo, and he might be gone.

So not only are we not addressing the OL and DL with the early picks, but for the drafts where guys are in their primes, and I am defining "in their prime" to be about 4-8 years of experience, we have basically nothing from the drafts which would have delivered those "in their prime" type players.

Add to that that the 'Skins did not have a 2nd in 2010 (McNabb), 2nd in 2011 (Griffin), or a 1st in either 2013 or 2014, and that's 4 more top round picks that have zero shot of developing. Which means that the trend is going to continue. And that's not a referendum on the Griffin trade. It's a fact, and bye-product.

Which is why I think it's going to take YEARS for the team to really be competent. Because even if they start addressing OL/DL with high picks in the next few drafts, it's going to take a 4-5 year commitment to do that, and then develop the guys, in order to see results.

I'm not sure anybody has the patience for that. And that being said, I think it's time to think about full on rebuild mode, when you throw guys out there to get experience even if there might be somebody slightly better on the roster RIGHT NOW.

[chipwhich]

I'm not sure anybody has the patience for that. And that being said, I think it's time to think about full on rebuild mode, when you throw guys out there to get experience even if there might be somebody slightly better on the roster RIGHT NOW.

 

There are already threads on this board calling out who to sign in next years free agency, "go get him Danny" will be posted a lot in the offseason, uproar will occur if we don't make free agent signings.  I have been calling for us to get out of the free agency business for a while now (until we build a foundation of drafted players) but am told I am crazy.  Gee I wonder what big name we will sign this offseason.  That's what we need is more starters who aren't drafted.  And we need free agents because we are so close to a super bowl.  The Ravens like the draft picks they get every year because they lose players to free agency and sign less free agents than they lose.

[Wyvern]

Thanks for the in-depth analysis. It helps to point out a concern, I've had about the Skins drafting strategy. -- too many receivers and QBs and not enough linemen (especially offensive linemen). I especially remember all those times I wanted the Skins to use a high pick for a quality center -- hoping somehow they could land someone like Mack or Mangold. (Both were first rounders.).

That said -- I can see why circumstances that the Skins didn't use their few 1st and 2nd round picks on the front lines.

1. Samuels and Jansen -- for several years in this period, they were young and talented bookends for the line. Probably the Skins didn't want to use a high round pick to be their backup.

2. The redskins brought in slew of free agent veterans as "quick fixes" to upgrade the offensive line. (As well as the defensive line). I'll just mention a few of those who were around for a couple of seasons on the offensive line: Randy Thomas, Cory Raymer (originally a Washington 2nd rounder!)/Casey Rabach, Jamaal Brown, Pete Kendall, Chris Chester, and the second go-around of Derrick Dockery. Many of these were signed to hefty contracts, which meant that drafting a first rounder would have been simply using cap space on an expensive backup. And now we've Lichtensteiger and Lauvao, so LeRibs, and whoever will have wait a bit longer.

3. The Skins 20-year quest for the Holy Grail, err ... I mean "Franchise QB".

[sportjunkie07]

the draft years of 2004-14 should net us a total of 11 first rounders and 11 second rounders for a total of 22 picks

 

skins- 7 first rounders, 7 second rounders

 

14 total impact draft picks out of 22. not good.

 

 

let's look at the saints...

 

they had 11 first rounders and 7 second rounders for 18 total draft picks.

 

yet the saints have been able to stay competitive while drafting oline/dline at the same rate as the redskins.

 

the real problem is not the lack of drafting oline per se; we have just done a bad job maintaining our draft picks, thus limiting our ability to draft oline/dline with so many other team needs.

 

The lack of stability at the qb situation in which we have invested many draft picks without success(Campbell, McNabb, RG3) is the main culprit.

[skinny21]

The bright side is that since Allen's taken full control, they spent their first 3 picks on oline and the front 7 (and signed Hatcher). My concern is that they stand pat on the oline because of this (in the hopes that Moses and Long will be ready next year).

[KDawg]

The game yesterday, despite the win, really showed how much help we need across the OL. Yikes.

[fpickering]

Our horrible OL situation is an absolute indictment of our FO.  The deficiencies on the line were well known (Polumbus, Chester, etc..)  The obvious choice was to use our first pick on OL especially since it was critical to protect our QB who has struggled to stay healthy.  Instead we chose to trade down and use our first pick on a backup OLB who was by all accounts a reach.  I remember thinking at the time what about Rob Jackson?

 

We have the unfortunate knack of bypassing the obvious choice and getting cute.  I don't know what is happening in our draft day war room but suffice it to say that the process is broken.  

 

Who would you rather have?  Bitono and Rob Jackson or Moses and Murphy?  It's a no brainer.

[KDawg]

This is still the path we need to go, though I don't advocate reaching for an OL. But I'll bet there's going to someone worth taking at our draft position.

[Thirtyfive2seven]

I do not want to sidetrack this tread which is awesome but the struggles at QB are not only offensive line related.  

 

ANnnnd here come the punches

 

Offensive line should be the top priority for the next 3-4 years.  I think we should attempt to keep RGIII for another season as well as Cousins.  Why everyone has given up on him is a mystery to me.  He has potential and talent.  Behind the right offensive line I believe that Colt and Cousins can be very successful.  RGIII has a long way to go in terms of learning to read defenses, make quicker decisions, and footwork.

[KDawg]

Did anyone say the struggles are only the QB? It's OL and QB. And running backs in pass pro...

[Thirtyfive2seven]

KDawg, no, not at all I was just pointing it out.  No one in this thread in particular has said that

Happy Thanksgiving btw!! 

[Boss_Hogg]

You are what you draft...Which the redskins don't.