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2014 NL East Division Champs Washington Nationals(News, Notes, Scores, and Discussion)


just654

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I like Desmond but he's the exact type of player that will always suck in October. He's a high power but high K streak hitter and those guys always tend to drop off big time in the postseason when the pitching picks up and you need to rely on small ball more to win.

 

With that said, I wouldn't just give him away. I still think our best bet at a ring is to keep the team together and take one last shot in 2015.

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Yep. Been thinking for a while he is JZ's replacement in 2016.

 

I like Desmond but he's the exact type of player that will always suck in October. He's a high power but high K streak hitter and those guys always tend to drop off big time in the postseason when the pitching picks up and you need to rely on small ball more to win.

 

With that said, I wouldn't just give him away. I still think our best bet at a ring is to keep the team together and take one last shot in 2015.

Desi hit fine in 2012. I'm chalking up this year to simply choking and a refusal to adjust approaches or come up with a game plan to attack a style of pitching. It's obvious the Giants took away a great deal from their regular season series against the Nationals and made adjustments.

Nats signed Dan Uggla to a minor league deal: http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2014/12/nationals-sign-dan-uggla-to-minor-league-deal.html

 

As much as I love Desi, this is who he becomes in 2-3 years...

Eh, I wouldn't say that bad. But along the same lines.

 

Perhaps Rizzo is tanking the offseason so he get fired and take that job in Toronto?

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Perhaps Rizzo is tanking the offseason so he get fired and take that job in Toronto?

 

Yeah because that terrible trade of a spare part for two very promising prospects was just awful...

Eh, I wouldn't say that bad. But along the same lines.

 

Desi is a lot more athletic than Uggla is/was. I think he'll maintain power better, and get on base slightly more because of his speed. But generally, I think a slash line of .225/.285/.400 with a ton of K's isn't out of the question for Desi in the next 2 years or so.

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DFister playing Santa:

 

"In the spirit of giving, Washington Nationals pitcher Doug Fister told his over 24,000 Twitter followers to have a drink on him.

At a little after noon on Wednesday, Fister tweeted out a scanable barcode good at any Starbucks for a free beverage, but asked that folks limit themselves to just one purchase."

 

http://espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/12077642/doug-fister-washington-nationals-tweets-link-free-starbucks-coffee-him

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Jesus, the slamming of Ian Desmond has now evolved into predicting how much he'll suck into the future.  Ridiculous.

 

He's been a 20/20 shortstop for three years running and is badly underrated by a subsection of this fanbase more than anywhere else.  

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Jesus, the slamming of Ian Desmond has now evolved into predicting how much he'll suck into the future. Ridiculous.

He's been a 20/20 shortstop for three years running and is badly underrated by a subsection of this fanbase more than anywhere else.

He's regressed the last two seasons. But yes, keep using stats like stolen bases, home runs, and RBIs to measure your players. Working out well for the Phillies.

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He's regressed the last two seasons.

Wrong. By any measure.

But yes, keep using stats like stolen bases, home runs, and RBIs to measure your players. Working out well for the Phillies.

Your posts here regarding Nats players are, for the most part, frighteningly off base.

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Wrong. By any measure.

Your posts here regarding Nats players are, for the most part, frighteningly off base.

 

Uh, right, by most measures:

 

OPS by year

2012 -  .292/.335/.511/.845

2013 -  .280/.331/.453/.784

2014 - .255/.313/.430/.743

 

Less power every year. Lower batting average. Then there is the strikeout rate

2012 - 20%

2013 - 22%

2014 - 28%

 

What's even more insteresting are these three charts

 

Look at 2012 and compare to 2014, particularly the top of the zone. He's losing the ability to make contact at the top of the zone and it's slowly creeping to the bottom of the zone.  You check out his ISO by year and location and it's the same story. In 2012 he was hitting for power just about everywhere in the strike zone. Not in 2014.

 

Ian Desmond is exactly the kind of player you DON'T give a long term deal to because of his fading skill set. He isn't Werth. He doesn't have an approach at the plate that will age well. His defensive ability is based largely on his range, which will begin to diminish. He will command 20+ million a year, largely due to how weak the SS free agent class will be.

 

So for a couple seasons, Desmond will probably perform. He'll get his 20/20. Probably hit for ~.260 and strike out 25% of the time. And then he'll fall off a cliff, like Ryan Howard. So should the Nationals be we willing to shell out 100+ million for poor performance, much like the Phillies, Yankees, and Angels are doing now for Ryan Howard, Mark Texeria, Albert Pujols, and Alex Rodriguez?

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Uh, right, by most measures:

 

OPS by year

2012 -  .292/.335/.511/.845

2013 -  .280/.331/.453/.784

2014 - .255/.313/.430/.743

You're comparing his career year of 2012, an anomaly, to his two subsequent years, which are along the lines of the rest of his steady career. I wouldn't characterize that as regression. You would.

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You're comparing his career year of 2012, an anomaly, to his two subsequent years, which are along the lines of the rest of his steady career. I wouldn't characterize that as regression. You would.

That's two years of regression. That's two years of reduced capability to perform.

 

Actually, the "rest" of his career is an OPS of .691. Which means that 2012 and 2013 were outliers and 2014 is more his "steady" career. But the truth is that 2013 was less than 2012. He regressed further from 2013, which means expecting even 2013 levels of performance is wishful thinking.

 

His increased strikeout rate is a direct reflection of his inability to lay off the high strike and his failure to make contact with the high strike.

 

I wouldn't be surprised if he surged back up to 2013 levels in 2015. But the likelihood of him performing at or near that level beyond 2016 is incredibly small. And for that, it will cost 130 million dollars. That's not worth it. Not when guys like Strasburg and Rendon still need long term deals. Not when you're going to have Werth and Zimmerman still on the payroll with huge contracts.

 

Dan Uggla played through undiagnosed concussion in 2014 | HardballTalk

http://teamstre.am/1vCaQtf

Could explain his major drop off last year.

What explains 2012 and 2013?

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Jesus, the slamming of Ian Desmond has now evolved into predicting how much he'll suck into the future. Ridiculous.

He's been a 20/20 shortstop for three years running and is badly underrated by a subsection of this fanbase more than anywhere else.

I've always been a little skeptical of Desmond. But, most of the time I don't know what I'm talking about.

That said, paying him anywhere near 95 mill scares the crap out of me.

I still want to know at what point are a batters strikeouts outweighed by his rbi? There has time be a formula for that. Is it war?

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I've always been a little skeptical of Desmond. But, most of the time I don't know what I'm talking about.

That said, paying him anywhere near 95 mill scares the crap out of me.

I still want to know at what point are a batters strikeouts outweighed by his rbi? There has time be a formula for that. Is it war?

Stop using RBIs. They have nothing to do with the hitter and everything to do with who gets on base for them. Lucroy had 69 RBIs last year. Does that make him better or worse than Ian Desmond?

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Uh, right, by most measures:

OPS by year

2012 - .292/.335/.511/.845

2013 - .280/.331/.453/.784

2014 - .255/.313/.430/.743

Less power every year. Lower batting average. Then there is the strikeout rate

2012 - 20%

2013 - 22%

2014 - 28%

What's even more insteresting are these three charts

Look at 2012 and compare to 2014, particularly the top of the zone. He's losing the ability to make contact at the top of the zone and it's slowly creeping to the bottom of the zone. You check out his ISO by year and location and it's the same story. In 2012 he was hitting for power just about everywhere in the strike zone. Not in 2014.

Ian Desmond is exactly the kind of player you DON'T give a long term deal to because of his fading skill set. He isn't Werth. He doesn't have an approach at the plate that will age well. His defensive ability is based largely on his range, which will begin to diminish. He will command 20+ million a year, largely due to how weak the SS free agent class will be.

So for a couple seasons, Desmond will probably perform. He'll get his 20/20. Probably hit for ~.260 and strike out 25% of the time. And then he'll fall off a cliff, like Ryan Howard. So should the Nationals be we willing to shell out 100+ million for poor performance, much like the Phillies, Yankees, and Angels are doing now for Ryan Howard, Mark Texeria, Albert Pujols, and Alex Rodriguez?

Accurate on all accounts, and I don't usually agree with Slateman. You let Desi walk and take the compensation picks. Someone like the Mets will over pay for him, and he'll be Ryan Howard, Curtis Granderson, etc.

And I am a big Desi fan.

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I really want to get Zobrist. I feel like his ability to play multiple positions strengthens the bench and enables this team to let Michael Taylor continue to develop in Triple A. Zobrist being able to play the corner outfield positions means a guy like Tyler Moore can come up, or Rizzo can sign another bench bat. If McClouth gets injured or the Nats need to use two bench outfielders, Zobrist just moves to a corner outfield spot and Espinosa plays second.

 

I'm sure there was some other piece(s) that Tampa Bay wanted besides Souza. Offer them up, see if they'll take it/them for Zobrist.

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I really want to get Zobrist. I feel like his ability to play multiple positions strengthens the bench and enables this team to let Michael Taylor continue to develop in Triple A. Zobrist being able to play the corner outfield positions means a guy like Tyler Moore can come up, or Rizzo can sign another bench bat. If McClouth gets injured or the Nats need to use two bench outfielders, Zobrist just moves to a corner outfield spot and Espinosa plays second.

 

I'm sure there was some other piece(s) that Tampa Bay wanted besides Souza. Offer them up, see if they'll take it/them for Zobrist.

 

I wouldn't mind him, as long as we give up very little for him. He's 33 and his numbers are beginning to decline across the board...he's merely a stop-gap.

 

I'm not sure how he ties into Moore as you said. Moore has been up and down for a few years now but he can only put up decent stats when he gets consistent starts. If Zobrist plays the corner outfield spots, then that means no Moore.

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I wouldn't mind him, as long as we give up very little for him. He's 33 and his numbers are beginning to decline across the board...he's merely a stop-gap.

 

I'm not sure how he ties into Moore as you said. Moore has been up and down for a few years now but he can only put up decent stats when he gets consistent starts. If Zobrist plays the corner outfield spots, then that means no Moore.

The Rays currently have DeJesus, Jennings, and Souza for the outfield. I think it's more likely they're looking to move Zobrist.

 

He OPS'd .749 last season. Plays good defense. What I like is that he takes a lot of walks and doesn't strike out a lot. Would be a very nice number 2 hitter and would allow Rendon to hit in the number 5 hole.

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Zobrist sounds like the exact type of player that wins games in October. It's usually those pesky contact guys who do the most damage in the postseason. That's what we need. Sick of seeing guys like Desi and Ramos strike out in big spots.

 

Rendon is too good to hit 5th though. He needs to stay at 2 or hit 3rd. I think ideally we go Rendon, Harper, Zimm 2-3-4 if Harper can stay consistent enough to hit 3 hole.

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Zobrist sounds like the exact type of player that wins games in October. It's usually those pesky contact guys who do the most damage in the postseason. That's what we need. Sick of seeing guys like Desi and Ramos strike out in big spots.

 

Rendon is too good to hit 5th though. He needs to stay at 2 or hit 3rd. I think ideally we go Rendon, Harper, Zimm 2-3-4 if Harper can stay consistent enough to hit 3 hole.

Zobrist would be great in the two hole because of his contact. He'll take pitches, you can hit and run with him, and he isn't an easy out.

 

Rendon has some pop. Imagine Zimmerman and Harper getting on second and third and Rendon doubling them in. Harper will never be consistent enough to hit in the 3 hole. I don't think he should hit above 6th until he proves he can actually hit well. But hey, we have to placate the ego.

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  • 5 months later...
No? Never wanted to trade Harper for Betts, huh?

 

 

Because wanting Hanley Ramirez is completely hairbrained . . . :rolleyes:

 

Keep loading up on high strikeout guys. I'm sure that will work out. Keep hoping the immature Harper will become a wondurkin too.

 

 

 

Please.

 

Second baseman with over .800 OPS and GG defense.

SS with GG talent and power

Best LHP prospect in baseball

A corner OF who, up until his foot injury last season, OPS'd .850

 

For a LFer who will hit ~.280, hit ~25 homers, has an attitude problem, and doesn't like the manager. That's easily an advantage to the Nationals.

 

 

I think Rizzo listens to every deal

 

Betts

Boegarts

Craig

Owens

 

That would be enough to seriously consider it.

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