The Championship Window Has Opened

[TheGreek1973]

The only real bad aspect to this is the salary that will be spent on keeping our franchise QB. I'm almost certain that Robert will command the highest paying contract in the history of the NFL. How much talent we can keep after that will truly test Bruce Allens abilities. I would hate to see the talent drain that often happens after a player signs a mega-contract. That's todays NFL. I don't want to be Debbie Downer, but I think the window is much smaller than 7 years nowadays.

this is why I believe we don't go nuts with the huge surplus on the cap.  We are supposedly have around 40 million, well in order for Rak and Davis to get paid huge amounts of money they will need to be MAJOR contributors, with the team winning the division and going deep in the playoffs.  

 

I feel super comfortable with our current management team to get it done and still have all the weapons we need to be contenders.  Also guys don't forget that our division rivals, especially the Giants and Boys will need to get their next franchise QB in the next 3 or 4 years.  And I certainly don't think the Eagles have the QB of their future on their roster right now.  So we should be the team to beat for the next 10 years if RGIII can remain healthy.

[Voice_of_Reason]

I think this team still has a lot to prove, but it's still trending in the right direction. If Robert's knee is good, then the biggest ? of the last 40 years has been answered. With all due respect to the 465 QBs that have played QB for the 'Skins since Sonny hung them up, 3 of which even won SBs, none compare to the raw talent that Robert possesses.

 

I break down championship teams a little differently than in the OP:

 

1. Consistency of scheme, and consistently gathering players that fit that scheme.  If your backup has played 2 years in the same scheme, they might not be as talented as the starter, but at least they know what they're doing. That's a benefit.  If every player has to learn a new scheme every year, nobody is as effective.  It looks like the 'Skins finally, after going through different HCs, OCs and DCs just about every year for a decade, have this figured out.

 

2. Depth.  Injuries happen. A true SB team has to be able to fill those holes with good, strong contributors.  The year GB won the SB, they had like 16 players on IR.  Granted, Aaron Rogers, wasn't.  But, the way the 'Skins were built in the 90's and 00's, if we had 16 players on IR, it was a 4 win season.  That seems to be changing as well.

 

3. Preparation. This is camouflage for "must be well coached." at the HC and OC positions, it's hard to argue the 'Skins are not well coached.  Defense is still a bit of a question mark, and now that Danny Smith is in Pittsburgh, chances are better on ST.

 

4. Consistency. The team can not have violent swings in production.  Consistency is key.

 

5. Playmakers.  Players that put the fear of God in the other team. On BOTH offense and Defense.  I think we've got a few on offense.  Not so much proven on defense. A playmaker at the QB position is almost essential.  Though, if you have enough playmakers elsewhere, you can (barely) get by without one.

 

If you put those 5 things together, you're going to have a heck of a run.  I think the door is opening.  I don't think it's all the way open yet. But it's definitely opening. 

[skinsmarydu]

And I don't think RGIII is a money-hungry moron.  He's seen what negative effects it can have.(Not the money, the stupid decisions that CAN follow.)  I think he'd be perfectly happy with some other QB making more money, but him having more rings.

[skins island connection]

Did you have had those same defensive concerns for most of last season too?

 

If so, do you not agree that with a healthy RG3 last year we could have made a decent playoff run?

 

Last year was an eye opener, for everyone. No one expected RGIII and Morris to storm the NFL like they did. It was more than a pleasant surprise for us all, but the defense, to be more precise, the safety positions were shaky at best, and it reared its ugly head in some games.

 

Late in the season the defense began to gel, but the safety spot was still a problem; you know as well as I  that there was alot of discussion regarding Haslett's playcalling, and in the Seattle game, the Hawks made the 2nd half adjustments which coupled with RGIII's injury proved to be too much to overcome.

 

I'm just saying the team as a whole staying healthy and especially the safety positions being strengthened will go a long way this year, but I just don't feel they can do it all; not calling anyone a homer, maybe i'm more of a pessimist, but over the decades i've seen teams with great offenses and a defense who couldn't defend  a retirement center.  Sure, its been done in the NFL by some teams, i.e.; GB, but they got there 1 year, a flash in the pan opportunity; the following year, they had a great season, home field advantage, and the Giants went in there and beat them. It doesn't matter WHAT team, none of them can consistantly go 13-3 or 14-2 without a defense to bail them out. The Redskins are just about to begin this journey where they should be perennial division winners/playoff contenders; I just don't feel comfortable with the defense as of yet, at least until we can all see the safety/secondary solidifying.

[SWFLSkins]

I have to respectfully disagree to a certain degree here SWFL. 

 

No, he isn't the end all to how we roll. But he most assuredly is to how much more diverse and threatening an attack we roll with. God forbid he did go down for an extended period, I think folk would be surprised at just how great the drop off would be between QB1 and QB2. Not that QB2 is bad by any means. Just NOWHERE near what 10 brings to the table and with little to no experience in the QB1 position in this town himself. 

 

Hail. 

Don't disagree with that GHH, but now there is a guy at no. 2 that can win games, didn't he prove that last year? 

[Soup's Uncle]

RG3 needs to prove he can stay healthy in order to command "the highest paying contract int he history of the NFL".  If he blows out his knee again (for the third time) he's probably going to call it a career.  Even if he does attempt a comeback from a third knee reconstruction, it will not be in 8 months.  I am only playing devil's advocate, and I believe RG3 will be our QB of the future, but in the back of my mind, I hear whispers of "He's going to get hurt again" because in his mind, he's fearless and plays with such wreckless abandon, that odds are, if he doesn't drastically change the way he plays (I think he can), he will suffer more injuries.  Possibly devastating and/or career ending.

 

Rewarding an oft-injured QB with an insanely huge contract doesn't strike me as something Shananan would do.  I know everyone will say, "He isn't oft-injured".  But now, with two knee reconstructions, I think he would generally fall under the category of having knee issues.  Not in the same way as say Tom Brady, who's had one ACL surgery.  Look at guys who have torn the same ACL more than once, and tell me what kind of career they have.

 

According to this article, Terrell Thomas is hopefully going to be the second player ever to come back from 3 ACL surgeries.  now I know that Corner and QB are different animals in terms of movement and everything.  And RG3 is "superhuman" and he may never tear his ACL again.  However, if he does (and that's hopefully a big if), I have a hard time believing his career lasts for long after that.

 

Now before everyone blasts me for being negative or not knowing what I'm talking about, again, I'm just playing devil's advocate, as I don't see/hear many people talking about the seriousness of RG3's career and how it could possibly be greatly shortened.  I have no reason to think he can't become more of a pocket passer and have a completely healthy rest of his career.  Hell, I just bought a RG3 jersey.  I think he is so cerebral, that he can and will become just as much of an assassin mentally that heis physically.

 

And it's ridiculous to think you can just plug in QBs into any situation and the team just wins.  History has shown that teams win more with franchise QBs than teams that don't have one.  A healthy RG3 makes this team nearly unstoppable on offense.  Not hating on Captain Kirk, but we are not the same team with Cousins under center.  Cousins may end up being very, very good.  But he's not in the same league with Griffin.

 

That's why earlier, I said that our championship window all hinges on that knee.  If RG3 stays healthy, we'll be ballers for years to come.  I hope it holds up.  One more knee reconstruction, and odds are he's done as a pro.

 

I know I'm going to get blasted for this post, haha.

[Momma There Goes That Man]

^^^ RG3 could take shotgun snaps from a wheelchair and still be more effective than some QBs in this league. He might be still be taller than Russell Wilson 

 

Anyway, I don't know if he will have another knee surgery or not but I don't think it would derail his career too much even if he became a statue like Brady in the pocket. He could still be a great pocket passer even if his rehab time ended up being longer than his previous two. 

[Darth Tater]

This is a good point. How many games will the Packers win this year if Senaca Wallace sees significant time? Or the 49ers with Colt McCoy? We all saw what happened to the Colts without Manning. How about the Giants with Ryan Nassib or Curtis Painter?

Take a further step back.  During Unitas' day, the Colts were dominant.  When he was done, they posted only one good year until they got Bert Jones when they had a few more good years until he was done (early due to injury IIRC).  They then sucked with a few mediocre to decent years until Manning.  While Lombardi was the most signigicant piece, after Bart Starr retired, the Packers were mediocre to downright suck until Favre.  SFO was pretty competitive (although they weren't great) with Albert, Tittle and Brodie but fell on hard times when Brodie faded until Montanta devloped.

[Darth Tater]

The only real bad aspect to this is the salary that will be spent on keeping our franchise QB. I'm almost certain that Robert will command the highest paying contract in the history of the NFL. How much talent we can keep after that will truly test Bruce Allens abilities. I would hate to see the talent drain that often happens after a player signs a mega-contract. That's todays NFL. I don't want to be Debbie Downer, but I think the window is much smaller than 7 years nowadays.

Thing is, except for the fact that Bruce doesn't like doing it that way (although I could see RG3 being an exception), even if RG3 signs the largest paying contract in NFL history (even if a large amount is paid up front), he could still have a below average cap hit.

[TD_washingtonredskins]

Take a further step back.  During Unitas' day, the Colts were dominant.  When he was done, they posted only one good year until they got Bert Jones when they had a few more good years until he was done (early due to injury IIRC).  They then sucked with a few mediocre to decent years until Manning.  While Lombardi was the most signigicant piece, after Bart Starr retired, the Packers were mediocre to downright suck until Favre.  SFO was pretty competitive (although they weren't great) with Albert, Tittle and Brodie but fell on hard times when Brodie faded until Montanta devloped.

 

So, when good players are not replaced properly the teams suffer? Agreed.

 

On the flip side, when good players are replaced well (Rodgers/Favre, Garcia/Young/Montana, Luck/Manning, etc.) the teams sustain their success. That's my only point. I don't want our run at a title to be limited to the years that Griffin is here.

[Heathen]

Great read.

 

I firmly believe the Skins will be in the Superbowl in 3-5 years. I think we have the pieces necessary that, with a bounce or two going our way, we could absolutely compete for a Championship.

 

Having said that, I really fear what an 8-8, 7-9 (or worse) season would do to this team. .500 or under could crush this team's direction. Here is what I think our possible outcomes are:

 

If RG3 stays healthy or the defense steps up: 10-6 or 9-7

If neither RG3 stays healthy nor the defense steps up: 7-9 or 6-10 (or worse)

If both RG3 stays healthy and the defense steps up: 11-5 and a couple playoff wins

 

My biggest concern is if RG3 stays pretty healthy, we play well, but due to the defense blowing some big plays, or some other factors we lose some games we should have won, go 7-9, its like, what do you do then?

[TD_washingtonredskins]

Great read.

 

I firmly believe the Skins will be in the Superbowl in 3-5 years. I think we have the pieces necessary that, with a bounce or two going our way, we could absolutely compete for a Championship.

 

Having said that, I really fear what an 8-8, 7-9 (or worse) season would do to this team. .500 or under could crush this team's direction. Here is what I think our possible outcomes are:

 

If RG3 stays healthy or the defense steps up: 10-6 or 9-7

If neither RG3 stays healthy nor the defense steps up: 7-9 or 6-10 (or worse)

If both RG3 stays healthy and the defense steps up: 11-5 and a couple playoff wins

 

My biggest concern is if RG3 stays pretty healthy, we play well, but due to the defense blowing some big plays, or some other factors we lose some games we should have won, go 7-9, its like, what do you do then?

 

Probably what we did after our 6-10 2010 or 5-11 2011...stay the course. If you think we have a good shot for 3-5 years (as you posted) why would you let a 7-9 2013 change your direction?

[ThePackisback]

I think Philly is in rebuilding mode. Vick wont carry that team to the playoffs. Dallas is always average every year and will stay that way. The Giants will start out 6-2 then collapse to 9-7 like they usually do. I just hope they miss the playoffs. The skins are the most complete team in the East and will win it at 11-5.

[Heathen]

Probably what we did after our 6-10 2010 or 5-11 2011...stay the course. If you think we have a good shot for 3-5 years (as you posted) why would you let a 7-9 2013 change your direction?

Mainly because a 7-9 season would cause me to question some of the feelings I have about positions/scheme etc. for this team. So a 7-9 or 6-10 season would make me reconsider my evaluation of our potential going forward. But, I guess it all comes back to OP's point number 2: We have a FO we can trust. It seems we're finally past the days of knee jerk reactions to seasons or even half-seasons from GM and coach. Its hard not to slip back into old ways- "OH GOD AN 8-8 SEASON MEANS THEY'RE GOING TO BLOW IT UP AND GO AFTER WASHED UP FAs!!!", so I just remind myself we finally have the direction we've needed for so long.

[Rpredskins]

I agree the Super Bowl is possible. There are at least 6 teams who are better positioned for it and more likely to win it, but we have a good enough team right now. Starting with the fact that in a win-or-go-home situation, and 5 more months of knee recovery, the Redskins could very well have the best offense in the league. I think we are top 5 with the designed QB runs X'd out in the playbook (as is currently expected). When they open it up come playoff time, I think RG3 can score as many points as are needed to win (see Kaepernick).

Defense can definitely create turnovers and come with a game plan vs. good QBs. Even last year's craptastic defense proved that. And that's what you need in the playoffs. The Saints and Packers defense allowed high scoring and yardage the years they won, but they created enough turnovers and played with enough heart in the playoffs to not undo what their offense was accomplishing.

[BRAVEONTHEWARPATH93]

So, when good players are not replaced properly the teams suffer? Agreed.

 

On the flip side, when good players are replaced well (Rodgers/Favre, Garcia/Young/Montana, Luck/Manning, etc.) the teams sustain their success. That's my only point. I don't want our run at a title to be limited to the years that Griffin is here.

You're using examples of team's that basically lucked into hall of famers consecutively. 

 

The 90s Bills didn't. Neither did the 90s Cowboys once Aikman went down. SD is probably looking right now. Odds are against you finding another stud just like that.

[TD_washingtonredskins]

You're using examples of team's that basically lucked into hall of famers consecutively. 

 

The 90s Bills didn't. Neither did the 90s Cowboys once Aikman went down. SD is probably looking right now. Odds are against you finding another stud just like that.

 

I guess I'm holding organizations more accountable. Your use of the term "luck" seems a little curious to me. Those teams took steps to identify and find a replacement for their quarterback. I agree that it won't always work out. The teams that I named are considered well-run organizations. I don't think too many people would claim that the Cowboys are a well-run front office, so it's not shocking that they didn't maintain their success from the 1990s.

 

By showing me that there are teams that do struggle after great players retire, all you are really doing is confirming that some organizations succeed at building a team and others are too reliant on great players. I'd prefer that we be the former, just like we were in the 1980s.

 

I haven't even brought up teams that have sustained success without great QBs. The Ravens, for example have been a very good team since about 2000 and have gone through a few different QBs in that time. The Giants were a great team in the 1980s and I don't think anyone was all that jealous of Simms/Hostetler.

[Warhead36]

2014 is the year the window will officially open. We're still a year away. We aren't at the SF/Seattle/Atlanta/GB level, not yet anyway. Next year we will be though. Need our puppies to season a bit more and some shoring up along the OL and secondary.

[AlvinWaltonIsMyBoy]

Nice OP.  I mostly agree with it.  I'm just hoping for some consistency this year, which would mean a return to the paloffs.  It's so difficult to become a perennial paloff team, and back to back trips would be awesome.  I think we are still in "culture changing" mode (see ES for examples), and another division title would be a huge step forward for our beloved franchise.

[BRAVEONTHEWARPATH93]

I guess I'm holding organizations more accountable. Your use of the term "luck" seems a little curious to me. Those teams took steps to identify and find a replacement for their quarterback. I agree that it won't always work out. The teams that I named are considered well-run organizations. I don't think too many people would claim that the Cowboys are a well-run front office, so it's not shocking that they didn't maintain their success from the 1990s.

 

By showing me that there are teams that do struggle after great players retire, all you are really doing is confirming that some organizations succeed at building a team and others are too reliant on great players. I'd prefer that we be the former, just like we were in the 1980s.

 

I haven't even brought up teams that have sustained success without great QBs. The Ravens, for example have been a very good team since about 2000 and have gone through a few different QBs in that time. The Giants were a great team in the 1980s and I don't think anyone was all that jealous of Simms/Hostetler.

 

I see where you're coming from TD. I still maintain my position though.