Playoff Scenerio Thread (Just The Facts)

[S.T.real,lights,out]

Ok, will be rooting for all those teams to lose this weekend....is it Sunday yet???

[pjfootballer]

This is great stuff and I feel better knowing winning out isn't the only way we can get in. I'm personally hoping we beat Philly and Giants, Vikes, and Bears all lose this week. At least we'll know we've clinched a playoff spot. I'd just hate to be sitting on pins and needles and damn near having a heart attack during the Dallas game. I'd rather sit back comfortably knowing we're in no matter what and be able to celebrate once we knock off Dallas, most likely on primetime national tv

This is me. I would love for us to clinch the playoff spot so we have a little room for error.

[WesB]

Awesome work man! Thanks for the breakdown. Let's just hope we beat the Eagles this week and then the rest will works itself out.

[skns4life]

Trying to be realistic. Hard to believe that all three of those things would go our way in week 16. I think the Lions have a better shot of knocking off the Bears than the Cardinals do.

Oh I see... I only caught the "dream" and not the "realistic" part... I'm hoping the Cards get on a little roll after winning last week and want to play spoiler to the Bears

[TD_washingtonredskins]

This is me. I would love for us to clinch the playoff spot so we have a little room for error.

If I'm understanding this correctly though, as long as we win in Philly on Sunday we only need Chicago, New York, and Minnesota to each lose once. If we really are flexed to Sunday night in week 17, that would give us two weeks of games for each of those teams to accumulate one loss. Even if it doesn't all happen this Sunday, we get another shot to see some things go in our favor before we take the field.

[kleese]

if we get in the playoffs, do we know when our first game would be? (depending on seeding of course)

No we don't know and we won't until after all matchups are set.

Here is the way it works....NBC broadscats two wild card round games on Saturday (one AFC game and one NFC game). Those games start at approx 4:00 eastern and 7:30 eastern. Then, on Sunday, Fox and CBS each show a game in their normal slot (1:00 and 4:25).

Generally speaking, the last attractive match up of the round will be slotted for 4:00 Saturday (it was Bengals/Texans last year). The top two match ups will be Saturday primetime and Sunday at 4:25....

For example, based on my personal predictions this would be the match-ups for the wild card round

Colts at Ravens

Steelers at Patriots

Seahawks at Redskins

Bears at 49ers

One thing to note if this were to take place is that the 49ers cannot play at 1:00 Sunday because they are on the west coast. Steelers/Patriots is the prize here. It's either going to primetime Saturday on NBC or it's going to 4:25 Sunday. Colts/Ravens is the least attractive game, but if they put it at 4:00 Saturday then they can't put Steelers/Pats at night because it needs to be one AFC and one NFC game per day.

So, I think this would be the outcome:

Saturday

4:00 Seahawks at Redskins

7:30 Steelers at Patriots

Sunday

1:00 Colts at Ravens

4:25 Bears at 49ers

Just a prediction based on logic and what they've done in the past; that is not a lock by any means

7:30

---------- Post added December-18th-2012 at 01:59 PM ----------

If I'm understanding this correctly though, as long as we win in Philly on Sunday we only need Chicago, New York, and Minnesota to each lose once. If we really are flexed to Sunday night in week 17, that would give us two weeks of games for each of those teams to accumulate one loss. Even if it doesn't all happen this Sunday, we get another shot to see some things go in our favor before we take the field.

correct

[MattFancy]

So we need the Bears, Giants, and Viking to lose this weekend and if we beat Philly we're in. Only one that seems tricky are the Bears losing to the Cardinals, but who knows.

[kleese]

So we need the Bears, Giants, and Viking to lose this weekend and if we beat Philly we're in. Only one that seems tricky are the Bears losing to the Cardinals, but who knows.

The team I'm most confident will lose one is Minnesota...I don't think they are very good and their schedule is the toughest (at Texans, Packers). The Texans have the #1 seed to play for this weekend...the Packers should still be in contention for a bye when their game kicks off week 17. I do not see the Vikes surviving both of those.

I am picking the Giants to lose in Baltimore this week, but that's a 50/50 game to me. Problem for us is that if the Giants win that one, there is no way the Eagles will beat them in Meadowlands week 17. So while we need the Giants to lose one of two....I really think there is only one chance for them to lose. The Bears have an easy schedule on paper, but they are crumbling and banged up. And both of their games are on the road. I think they get by Arizona this week, but Detroit could be tricky. Lions have had a horrible year and I do think they would gear up to knock their rivals out at the end. The only other team that could help us if we lose one game is Seattle dropping two...highly unlikely. They could very well this to SF this week, but no way do I see the Rams knocking them off if it's do or die for the Seahawks.

[TD_washingtonredskins]

I am almost positive that we played the early Saturday game each of the last two wild card weekends also (at Tampa in 2005 and at Seattle in 2007). Given how we made the playoffs those years (needing to win our last 4-5 games), I remember wishing I could have a later game. The same would go this year...it would be horrible to do all this work to win 6/7 or 7/7 to make it and then be the first team eliminated. The only nice thing is that if we win, we get 7-8 days to savor a playoff win (like we had in 2005).

#goodteamproblems

Edit: I would add that the potential match up of Wilson vs. RG3 could give us a nicer time slot. Who knows though?

I could see Bears/49ers playing at 7 on Saturday and us early on Sunday.

[MattFancy]

The team I'm most confident will lose one is Minnesota...I don't think they are very good and their schedule is the toughest (at Texans, Packers). The Texans have the #1 seed to play for this weekend...the Packers should still be in contention for a bye when their game kicks off week 17. I do not see the Vikes surviving both of those.

I am picking the Giants to lose in Baltimore this week, but that's a 50/50 game to me. Problem for us is that if the Giants win that one, there is no way the Eagles will beat them in Meadowlands week 17. So while we need the Giants to lose one of two....I really think there is only one chance for them to lose. The Bears have an easy schedule on paper, but they are crumbling and banged up. And both of their games are on the road. I think they get by Arizona this week, but Detroit could be tricky. Lions have had a horrible year and I do think they would gear up to knock their rivals out at the end. The only other team that could help us if we lose one game is Seattle dropping two...highly unlikely. They could very well this to SF this week, but no way do I see the Rams knocking them off if it's do or die for the Seahawks.

I pretty much agree with everything you said. Of course the easiest thing for us would be to just win these last 2. But its fun to look at the scenarios that have us clinching before Week 17. Seems tough, but its possible all 3 of those teams lose this week.

[s0crates]

I'm sure you guys are on top of this, but in case anybody missed it: The Redskins can (theoretically) clinch a playoff spot this week.

This, from PFT: http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2012/12/18/colts-bengals-redskins-seahawks-giants-can-clinch-sunday/#comments

Washington Redskins: Clinch a playoff spot if they beat the Eagles and the Giants, Bears and Vikings all lose.

Kind of a long shot I know, but I thought I would share.

[BleedBNG]

Very simple for this week: rooting for the Redskins (always), Ravens, Arizona, and Texans...

... then I can sit back and relax for week 17

[Gibbs Hog Heaven]

Any news on if they've moved the 'Girls game to prime-time?

Hail.

[PerryMason]

49ers beating the Seahawks should be added to the "realistic dream scenario"....we would then have two ways to clinch before a potential SNF game in week 17. Bears lose to Detroit OR Seahawks lose to Rams. (assuming all other things in the realistic dream scenario take place)

[HouseBowlrz]

Any news on if they've moved the 'Girls game to prime-time?

Hail.

I may have already posted the link for Rich Tandler's site about. He noted that we are a lock to flex unless both us and Dallas lose *AND* New York wins; an 87.5 percent chance that doesn't happen. (And if it does, we're probably looking late afternoon.)

Official announcement on NBC at halftime of SF-SEA game but if we take care of ourselves, bank on prime time.

[Ludomaniac]

I have a question that wasnt answered in the OP, but may have been asnwered throughout the thread (too big to search through), but its just a quick question.

We can clinch a playoff berth this weekend, but can we be eliminated this weekend?

[Rabsuz]

I have a question that wasnt answered in the OP, but may have been asnwered throughout the thread (too big to search through), but its just a quick question.

We can clinch a playoff berth this weekend, but can we be eliminated this weekend?

I don't think so, let's say the Cowboys and Giants win and grow to 9 wins this year and we stay at 8. If we win the last game vs the Cowboys in this scenario, it's a 3 way tie and we own the tie breaker. over them I think.

At least I think I have this right, these odds and what ifs always confuse me so I might be wrong.

[CaliSkinsFan92]

I have a question that wasnt answered in the OP, but may have been asnwered throughout the thread (too big to search through), but its just a quick question.

We can clinch a playoff berth this weekend, but can we be eliminated this weekend?

"They cannot be eliminated from playoff contention this week, so their game with Dallas in Week 17 will loom enormous, no matter how the Redskins’ trip to Philadelphia goes."

according to Sports Illustrated we cannot.

[kiingspadee]

ESPN showed a stat that said the team since 2002 that leads the division after week 15 wins the division 98% of the time

---------- Post added December-18th-2012 at 09:28 PM ----------

I really want revenge against Seahawks

[CaliSkinsFan92]

I personally hope that we clinch before the game against Dallas some people seem to want that game to be for all the marbles but i'm a chicken haha. It could be possible we clinch on the Sunday of the game against Dallas like if Minnesota and the Giants were to lose this week and the Bears lose Lions next Sunday they'd clinch on the day of the game. It's all speculation though I honestly expect the Giants to win out and hopefully we shall too.

[skinsforlife101]

I personally hope that we clinch before the game against Dallas some people seem to want that game to be for all the marbles but i'm a chicken haha. It could be possible we clinch on the Sunday of the game against Dallas like if Minnesota and the Giants were to lose this week and the Bears lose Lions next Sunday they'd clinch on the day of the game. It's all speculation though I honestly expect the Giants to win out and hopefully we shall too.

Think of it this way, if I am in the Ravens organization and am looking at the playoff situation, I would pull out every trick in the book against the Giants to win because if we win the division we could play at home against a Colts team that have not looked good on the road at all this year. Many people are saying that the Ravens have nothing to play for but if I was a Ravens fan I would think that this would be a huge game. For some odd reason I think the Arizona game maybe a possible trap game for the bears.

[kleese]

Think of it this way, if I am in the Ravens organization and am looking at the playoff situation, I would pull out every trick in the book against the Giants to win because if we win the division we could play at home against a Colts team that have not looked good on the road at all this year. Many people are saying that the Ravens have nothing to play for but if I was a Ravens fan I would think that this would be a huge game. For some odd reason I think the Arizona game maybe a possible trap game for the bears.

I don't think it's a trap game per se.... I just think the Bears may not be much better than Arizona right now to be perfectly honest.

[CaliSkinsFan92]

Think of it this way, if I am in the Ravens organization and am looking at the playoff situation, I would pull out every trick in the book against the Giants to win because if we win the division we could play at home against a Colts team that have not looked good on the road at all this year. Many people are saying that the Ravens have nothing to play for but if I was a Ravens fan I would think that this would be a huge game. For some odd reason I think the Arizona game maybe a possible trap game for the bears.

Yeah i know what you mean, however the Giants HAVE to win as well to make it and i would assume they'd have some pride after that beat down. I agree about Arizona they beat the Lions pretty easily and if they can hit Cutler a few times they'll have a decent shot against them.

[dahibachi]

ESPN showed a stat that said the team since 2002 that leads the division after week 15 wins the division 98% of the time

---------- Post added December-18th-2012 at 09:28 PM ----------

I really want revenge against Seahawks

well let's hope we are part of the 98%.

and I've actually been thinking about the Seahawks a bit and I having been thinking about revenge, but after thinking about it for a while, that's not the same team that knocked us out of the playoffs twice. That team was led by Matt Hasselbeck and Mike Holmgren both times. This one features Russell Wilson and Pete Carroll. When I think of it that way, it doesn't really matter to me anymore. All I know is I don't want to go to Qwest Field.

[Supreme Wu]

I don't think so, let's say the Cowboys and Giants win and grow to 9 wins this year and we stay at 8. If we win the last game vs the Cowboys in this scenario, it's a 3 way tie and we own the tie breaker. over them I think.

At least I think I have this right, these odds and what ifs always confuse me so I might be wrong.

Skins will have a shot at WC in week 17 no matter what, I think, but if that happens (Skins lose to Philly) and Giants win this week and next week they are at 10 and win the Division.