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***Official 2011/2012 Winter Weather Thread***


mikered30

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not to dampen anybodys parade but NAO is postive , AO is positive, La nina ( weather related things) = not good for snow.

If you want any snow in the mid atlantic I'd look ahead to Jan/Feb.

Unless a drastic change occurs it won't snow much (if it all) this month.

VERY VERY unlikely of seeing snow on or even near christmas

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not to dampen anybodys parade but NAO is postive , AO is positive, La nina ( weather related things) = not good for snow.

If you want any snow in the mid atlantic I'd look ahead to Jan/Feb.

Unless a drastic change occurs it won't snow much (if it all) this month.

VERY VERY unlikely of seeing snow on or even near christmas

Thanks Scrooge.

:kickcan:

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not to dampen anybodys parade but NAO is postive , AO is positive, La nina ( weather related things) = not good for snow.

If you want any snow in the mid atlantic I'd look ahead to Jan/Feb.

Unless a drastic change occurs it won't snow much (if it all) this month.

VERY VERY unlikely of seeing snow on or even near christmas

****ing sweet.

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Snow is great, but those clear skyed, bitterly cold, windy days in winter are awful. If it's gonna be 25 degrees it needs to be snowing.

The only reason I like these is because it reminds me that when I eventually have a single family home with a deck, I'm going to buy one of those iron fire pits and keep it full of burning logs and just sit by it. Because the sky is usually beautiful on those days and I'd like to spend some of it outside.

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The only reason I like these is because it reminds me that when I eventually have a single family home with a deck, I'm going to buy one of those iron fire pits and keep it full of burning logs and just sit by it. Because the sky is usually beautiful on those days and I'd like to spend some of it outside.

Aren't fire pits better on stone patios than wooden decks?

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not to dampen anybodys parade but NAO is postive , AO is positive, La nina ( weather related things) = not good for snow.

If you want any snow in the mid atlantic I'd look ahead to Jan/Feb.

Unless a drastic change occurs it won't snow much (if it all) this month.

VERY VERY unlikely of seeing snow on or even near christmas

disagree just because the pattern doesn't necessary support snow doesn't mean it won't. Its looking like we will see some snow wednesday night into thursday. Not sure on amounts for now.

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Does anyone else follow the wxrisk.com forecaster Dave Tolleris based out of the Richmond area? The guy has been pretty accurate with NE/Mid-Atlantic snowstorms and recently with Hurricane Irene. He usually challenges the conservative forecasts of the local news meteorologists. Very entertaining to follow during the winter season as he gives his in depth forecasts.

http://www.wxrisk.com/

http://www.facebook.com/WxRisk

Yes I follow him all the time, and won several bets because of his forecast. I also like that he will admit when he missed one

Drinking the Dave koolaid. :koolaid: The winter weather needs to push in here...Dave is getting on edge these days.

Anyway for you weather junkies, here is the latest from Dave Tolleris......

One of the primary reasons why a lot of meteorologists have turned sour on the winter is because of the belief in some of the longer range weather models which go out to three in four weeks. Specifically I am referring to the European weeklies. Back in the winter of 2009-10 and last winter …European weekly models did a very good job in latching onto the pattern early. They got the timing of the coal pattern when develop exactly right and the European weeklies also got the timing and the method in which the cold patterns will break down in February of last year.

Given that the European weekly forecasts are a relatively new product these models have developed a significant following a specially given the very good forecast we saw from this model over the last two winters.

As we moved through November more and more of the European weekly models showed no cold air of any kind reaching any portion of the central and eastern CONUS. Week after week – twice a week now– the European weekly showed nothing but a Moderate to deep trough over the West Coast (-PNA) and a strong +NAO. However as I pointed out a couple times already the European weeklies completely messed the upcoming cold shot next week for the Plains the Midwest and the Northeast where was the CFS vs2 did not. That model has correctly predicted that temperatures would actually run a little below normal during the first 10 or 12 days of December for much of the country east of the Rockies.

However there’s another model which can be used in trying to figure out the patterns in the week 2 and week 3 time frame besides the European weeklies. - Dave Tolleris

http://www.wxrisk.com/2011/12/dec-8-inland-snow-event/

http://www.wxrisk.com/2011/12/mid-december-undecided/

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JB is on acid he just needs some good ratings so he exagerates every event I definetely wouldn't buy into it. But AccuWX is good for some laughs lol

Don't be so quick to dismiss JB's map. He nailed the Halloween storm when no one believed it would happen. Do i believe we will see 3 inches...No. But we could be in for more then a few flakes.

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looks like they canceled the winter storm watch :ols:

Winter Storm Watch:

Issued at: 1:45 PM EST 12/6/11, expires at: 9:45 PM EST 12/6/11

Winter storm watch in effect from Wednesday afternoon through wednesday evening,

The NWS in baltimore md/Washington has issued a winter storm watch, which is in effect from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday evening.

Precipitation type, rain changing to snow.

Accumulations, 4 to 7 inches of snow above 1500 feet.

Timing, late Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday evening.

Temperatures, falling into the lower 30s Wednesday afternoon. Low temperatures Wednesday night will range from near 20 along the ridges to the upper 20s in the valleys.

Winds, northwest 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph.

Precautionary/preparedness actions,

A winter storm watch means there is a potential for significant snow accumulations that may impact travel. Continue to monitor the latest forecasts.

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