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db: Gibbs: America Will Not Take Sides in Egypt


JMS

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I still think that one act is the linch pin for saying if this was successful for the protesters or not.

There's still a chance for some sort of backlash from pro-mubarak thugs and over exuberant rioting by protesters in the near future.

Although I'm not sure if the state of emergency would effect those or not, or if it really made a difference the last few weeks either.

It should be removed for legal and legislative purposes anyway.

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I still think that one act is the linch pin for saying if this was successful for the protesters or not.

I would think they would keep the state of emergency imposed during the transitional period to the new government, whatever it may be. They are going to have to be able to crackdown on whatever opposition group decides to cause trouble.

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Some various pictures of the celebrations in Cairo

http://blogs.aljazeera.net/middle-east/2011/02/10/live-blog-feb-11-egypt-protests

reuters164blog_5.jpg

http://www.reuters.com/article/slideshow/idUSTRE70O3UW20110211#a=1

Thousands of Egyptian anti-government protesters celebrate inside Tahrir Square after the announcement of Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak's resignation in Cairo February 11, 2011.

REUTERS/Amr Abdallah Dalsh

?m=02&d=20110211&t=2&i=334620311&w=&fh=&fw=&ll=600&pl=390&r=2011-02-11T221406Z_01_BTRE71A1L2M00_RTROPTP_0_EGYPT

?m=02&d=20110211&t=2&i=334620326&w=&fh=&fw=&ll=700&pl=390&r=2011-02-11T221406Z_01_BTRE71A1L2N00_RTROPTP_0_EGYPT

?m=02&d=20110211&t=2&i=334620325&w=&fh=&fw=&ll=700&pl=390&r=2011-02-11T221406Z_01_BTRE71A1L2O00_RTROPTP_0_EGYPT

?m=02&d=20110211&t=2&i=334620327&w=&fh=&fw=&ll=700&pl=390&r=2011-02-11T221406Z_01_BTRE71A1I5S00_RTROPTP_0_EGYPT-PROTEST

?m=02&d=20110211&t=2&i=334620318&w=&fh=&fw=&ll=700&pl=390&r=2011-02-11T221406Z_01_BTRE71A1BMJ00_RTROPTP_0_EGYPT-MUBARAK

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(from CNN TV) The protesters are planning on cleaning up Tahrir Square and mostly going home tomorrow. Some however are still worried that the army may not follow through on their promises and may stick around for a little while.

#

Some statements from Egypt:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-12307698

0023: Mahmoud Abaza, a senior member of the Wafd party, tells the Reuters news agency: "Many chances were lost to solve this crisis but, thank God, we found a solution. A president who should have been a symbol of the nation became a source of discord. We have closed the page on an Egypt that lasted a long time where Egyptians could not choose, hold accountable or change their leader." He adds: "We must be careful of seeing off one dictatorship and stepping into another, so this is a critical period. The army could remain with old ideas and prefer the system over freedom, though this is not very likely. Secondly, a force like the Muslim Brotherhood could dominate the political process but we have enough experience to avoid this and they do too. Thirdly, the youth could lose hope and interest in public affairs and lose the power that can push Egypt into the future."
#0031: Rifaat Said, the secretary-general of the Tagammu party, says: "Mubarak made a lot of mistakes but he stepped down in the end and it was necessary he could not continue with the entire people demanding his resignation and it's clear the army played a central role in achieving this. I congratulate Egyptian youth - they have given us something nice and it'll be a model for many countries. The higher army council has behaved in a balanced way and that's encouraging. They didn't use violent language or come out firing weapons. There is concern but I think the army knows how to sort things out."

From elsewhere:

#0050: A word of caution for jubilant Egyptians from the former UN Deputy Secretary-General, Lord Malloch Brown. "Tonight is certainly a night to celebrate," he tells the BBC. "But tomorrow morning I think is going to be a real time for reflection because I think this is really two armies. It's a younger army of people who were out there trying to guard the square and who let kids and families climb all over the tanks and clearly felt a generational empathy. But it's an army also of elderly generals, who've been some of the most conservative backers of President Mubarak for the last 30 years, and so I think you're going to see a fissure within the army if the generals try to hold out for stability over democracy."
#0053: Steven Cook of the Council on Foreign Relations tells the BBC: "It's certainly not martial law in Egypt at the moment. The military is in charge of the country. But it is unclear if this is the road to democracy. If you look at Military Communique Number Two, it tracks very closely to what President Mubarak said in his three addresses to the nation. There is clearly hard work ahead for the Egyptian people if they want to live in a democratic and open society."
#0055: Mr Cook says Field Marsham Mohammed Hussein Tantawi, the defence minister and head of the higher military council, is "one of the least charismatic figures in all the Middle East". "He owes his position to his relationship to Mr Mubarak. He came to the president's attention through providing security for his family. He is not known to be a great strategic thinker. A Mubarak loyalist is now in charge of the country," he adds.

That's somewhat disheartening, but I think the influence of the Egyptian people on what the military does in the future is underestimated greatly by a lot of people.

#0057: Samer Shehata, an assistant professor of Arab Politics at Georgetown University in Washington, agrees. "Tantawi is certainly tainted," he tells the BBC. "The people underneath him, including the four other individuals sitting on the higher military council have much more legitimacy now. If he were to leave, that would be acceptable for the great majority of Egyptians for the immediate period."
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http://blogs.aljazeera.net/middle-east/2011/02/11/live-blog-feb-12-egypt-protests
2:40am Headlines on the front page of Al Ahram, Egypt's largest - state-owned - newspaper from before and after the resignation of Mubarak.

Above: "Millions out in support of Mubarak"

- under: "The people overthrow the regime"

Better save the first one. Might be worth money, down the road.

E868A_dewey_defeats_truman.jpg

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Paul Wolfowitz was on CNN just now.

He said that today is great day for Egypt and probably a great day for the world.

He seemed pretty happy and optimistic with the way things are going.

---------- Post added February-11th-2011 at 10:03 PM ----------

Here's what Fareed Zakaria has to say:

http://www.cnn.com/video/#/video/politics/2011/02/11/jk.fareed.zakaria.post.mubarak.cnn?hpt=T1

---------- Post added February-11th-2011 at 10:14 PM ----------

According to Ben Wedeman on CNN State TV tonight showed Obama's speech live and has been having people call in and comment about various things.

They mention that earlier the tv anchors were taking calls from the demonstrators outside the building and letting them criticize the government and also apologizing and saying they were trapped into lying for the regime. And this was before the resignation.

(I remember it was around when I heard this reported earlier this morning that I started having the feeling that things were past the point of return for the regime and that Mubarak might resign soon after all.)

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On Al Jazeera they were saying a little while ago that in a few minutes a council of judges and other people will start discussing a new constitution together in an undisclosed location.

Apparently they will meet for about four hours today.

(I can't find any more info on that anywhere else though)

-Apparently Algeria is expecting huge protests today and the riot police are being sent out in force.

A couple of articles about the military leaders in charge of Egypt right now.

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/12/world/middleeast/12military.html?_r=2&hp

Although he has been derided on the street, and in classified diplomatic cables, as a “poodle” to Mr. Mubarak, Field Marshal Tantawi is portrayed by some senior American officers who know him personally as a shrewd operator who played a significant role in the relatively nonviolent ouster of his patron.

These officers say Field Marshal Tantawi is likely to be the most powerful military figure during the transition, because he is canny, knows the system and is more experienced.

By contrast, the second officer, Lt. Gen. Sami Hafez Enan, chief of staff of the armed forces, is a bit of a cipher to American officials, who say he has never sought to project a separate identity from the army he leads.

He is younger than the defense minister, and thus would most likely be promoted to the more senior ministry position if the military can calmly guide the nation toward democracy.

Americans who have worked with General Enan describe him as bright and innovative.

The army’s role in Egyptian society says much about the general who leads it. General Enan commands a conscription army — drawn by law from all sectors of Egyptian society and therefore tightly knitted with the populace. Every adult male is required to serve.

American officials said General Enan had made it clear to them in several telephone calls to Washington that his troops would not fire on the protesters, even as the military sought to protect the institutions of government.

General Enan comes across as particularly worried about Iranian power in the Middle East.

According to one cable, General Enan in April 2009 “stressed the importance of resolving the Arab-Israeli conflict in order to deter Iranian interference in the region.” Three months later, Gen. David H. Petraeus, then the commander of the United States Central Command, told General Enan that Egypt’s success in constraining Hamas, the Palestinian Islamist group, had blunted Iran’s influence.

http://www.cnn.com/2011/WORLD/meast/02/11/egypt.tantawi.profile/index.html?hpt=C1

One cable described him as "frozen in the Camp David paradigm and uncomfortable with our shift to the post-9/11 global war on terror." Another quoted an unnamed Egyptian officer, who joked that Tantawi "looks like a bureaucrat."

That cable went on to say he is openly mocked at clubs in Cairo where midlevel officers gather. The cable claimed these officers mock him openly as "incompetent" and as "Mubarak's poodle." The officers also say that Tantawi's unwavering loyalty to Mubarak is "running the military into the ground," according to the cable.

Most significant for the hopes of democratic-reform advocates in Egypt, the cables say that Tantawi has always supported the centralization of power in Egypt.

One cable says he has become "increasingly intolerant of intellectual freedom." Another goes into greater detail on his position.

"Tantawi has opposed both economic and political reforms that he perceives as eroding central government power," according to the cable. "He is supremely concerned with national unity, and has opposed policy initiatives he views as encouraging political or religious cleavages with Egyptian society."

Tantawi is definitely worrisome. I don't think he'll have as much power as people think though.

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MSNBC was just showing a line of clips from other revolutions and dictator overthrows over the years.

Amazing stuff.

Who all did MSNBC show? I was thinking about revolutions earlier today. What has been the most successful revolution in the past 100 years? And I don't mean success just in that they succeeded in overthrowing whomever. I mean success both immediate and longterm for their nation.

Cuba has been a disaster. Russia was a disaster the first time and hasn't exactly been a success the second time. Can East Germany reuniting with West Germany be called a revolution? China is a super power these days but it took them almost 60 years. South Africa? They struggled HARD for a long time after the end of apartheid though. And still do. Hell America struggled for a long time. We fought a damn Civil War with millions killed at one point.

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Maybe India if you count Gandhi and his movement as a revolution. There were other revolutionaries such as Bhagat Singh as well, but they used violent methods, but found success.

India did fairly well after the British left, but a large part of that is due to the fact that the Brits left us with a pretty nice infrastructure to build upon.

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Maybe India if you count Gandhi and his movement as a revolution. There were other revolutionaries such as Bhagat Singh as well, but they used violent methods, but found success.

India did fairly well after the British left, but a large part of that is due to the fact that the Brits left us with a pretty nice infrastructure to build upon.

Weren't there major problems with the whole creation of Pakistan thing? I thought millions of Muslims had to essentially walk across India to get to Pakistan and they were being murdered the whole wau? And maybe vice versa--Hindus travelling and being murdered by Muslims? I mean Ghandi was assassinated over that.

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Who all did MSNBC show? I was thinking about revolutions earlier today. What has been the most successful revolution in the past 100 years? And I don't mean success just in that they succeeded in overthrowing whomever. I mean success both immediate and longterm for their nation.

They were showing the Berlin Wall coming down in Germany, and the revolutions, dictator overthrows, etc in Poland, Romania, the Philippines, Indonesia, South Africa, Taiwan....

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Weren't there major problems with the whole creation of Pakistan thing? I thought millions of Muslims had to essentially walk across India to get to Pakistan and they were being murdered the whole wau? And maybe vice versa--Hindus travelling and being murdered by Muslims? I mean Ghandi was assassinated over that.

Yeah those were the train slaughters. It started when Muslims in Pakistan slaughtered a train full of Hindu's and when the train got to India, Indians did the same to them.

Gandhi actually had a decent amount of opposition because people felt he softened up his stance way too much. But I think looking at it from a historical perspective, the India-Pakistan split was inevitable. The issue of parliamentary representation between Hindu's and Muslim's would have been a gigantic **** storm if the partition never happened.

Both sides lost a lot of people due to violence but balancing the different outcomes, it could have been a lot worse. IMO the best thing that happened was that both sides (Hindu's and Muslim's) had brilliant influential leaders (Gandhi for the HIndu's and Jinnah for the Muslims). If Jinnah doesn't force a split in nations, the death toll numbers would have been ridiculously higher than they were.

So while it wasn't exactly a peaceful transition, it eventually worked out for the best, at least for India. I only have a limited understand of Pakistani history but I think Pakistan lagged behind India due to poor leadership. India despite losing Gandhi still had people like Jawahar Lal Nehru and Sardar Patel who had a great deal of influence over the people. From my understanding (and this could be wrong) no one in Pakistan at that time was remotely close to being the leader and influential figurehead Jinnah was. I know the current state of Pakistan is not what Jinnah envisioned. All the writings of Jinnah that I've read, he wanted Pakistan to be a secular state with only a little Islamic influence.

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So the latest news in Egypt is that the military has so far decided to keep the cabinet in place until the government is changed, and that they have promised to honor all current international treaties. They have also told people to respect the police forces.

Many protesters and others are spending the day cleaning the streets and repairing damage done during the last couple of weeks or so.

So far there doesn't seem to be a timetable yet for when things will happen.

The military have promised that they will work to transition into a civilian democratically elected government.

Al Jazeera has now also started an update blog on Algeria.

http://blogs.aljazeera.net/middle-east/2011/02/12/live-blog-feb-12-eye-algeria

this seems rather low, considering hundreds were arrested today

13:13PM About 50 people shouted anti-government slogans in a square in Algeria's capital on Saturday.

alg1.JPG

13:33pm AliBekki posted this video on YouTube on February 11th, allegedly showing the police beating a protester. We can not verify the authentiy of the video.

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14:10pm Retuers news agency reports that Algerian police have blocked the centre of the capital city of Algiers, preventing anti-government protesters from joining the small groups of protesters in May 1 Square for a planned march through the city. Those already in the square have been "hemmed in". We've had other reports, though, of protesters breaking police lines and entering the square.
2:40pm Twitter is buzzing with reports of the role of women in today's protests in Algiers, with some saying that police are tageting and arresting women. There are several photos of female protesters being hauled off by police on the wires.
4:38pm The AP reports that according to the Algerian League for the Defense of Human Rights, 400 people have been arrested in today's protests.

Ali Yahia Abdelnour, who heads the group, says that 28,000 security forces have been deployed in Algiers.

In addition to the protests in Algeria, there are large demonstrations going on in Yemen today.

But even as officials hash out the details of Egypt's political future, its people power rippled throughout the region.

In the Yemeni capital, Sanaa, protesters chanted: "Yesterday Tunisia, today Egypt, tomorrow Yemen will open the prison."

Saturday, men wielding knives attacked the anti-goevrnemnt demonstrators, said Human Rights Watch.

http://www.cnn.com/2011/WORLD/meast/02/12/egypt.revolution/index.html?hpt=T1

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