FanboyOf91 Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 The burning building is probably Al-Jazeera's office in Cairo. It was attacked earlier today. http://blogs.aljazeera.net/node/3164 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Larry Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Another thought that came to me, while I was contemplating the idea of Hamas trying to get involved in this. IF Hamas can gain power out of this chaos, then they would be in a position to break the blockade of Gaza. And that would make them heroes. So, they not only have the organization and the money, but one hell of a motive. ---------- OTOH, on the optimistic-viewpoint side: The military, to me, is really looking like Good Guys, here. Wondering if the head of the military might emerge as the head of a political group. Would the military commander be an acceptable head of a transitional government? Make him "acting President" for 8 months? Maybe somebody in the US could mention George Washington to him? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
visionary Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 OTOH, on the optimistic-viewpoint side: The military, to me, is really looking like Good Guys, here. Wondering if the head of the military might emerge as the head of a political group. Would the military commander be an acceptable head of a transitional government? Make him "acting President" for 8 months? Maybe somebody in the US could mention George Washington to him? The US has supposedly been doing a lot of talking with the secretary of defense and the joint chief of staff. And some of the generals and other military leaders probably. ---------- Post added February-4th-2011 at 10:02 AM ---------- http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-12307698 #1452: Emad Kamel in the Egyptian city of Quena says there have been no protests there as everyone is pro-Mubarak: "People here in Qena are standing by Mr Mubarak - I support him. We like him and no-one wants him to leave. The media have just been focussing on Tahrir Square and not reporting on what is going on in other areas of Egypt. The culture of Egyptians is not like in Tahrir. What you see in Tahrir is only one part of Egypt. Not everyone is there. There are 80 million people who are with Mr Mubarak." The population of Egypt is actually slightly less than 80 million. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-12307698 #1505: We've had a few pro-Mubarak comments, so to balance things out, here's the head of the Egypt's Democratic Front, Osama al-Ghazali Harb, with his view of President Mubarak: "He's lost his legitimacy, he lost the respect of his people. I don't see that there is any alternative but to leave," he told the BBC, rejecting Mr Mubarak's statement that the country would be plunged into chaos if he stepped down immediately. "Egypt is in chaos already now, simply because of his presence. In fact he is now the main source of instability and chaos," said Mr Harb. 1507: The secretary-general of the Arab League, Amr Moussa, has been telling the BBC World Service why he joined the anti-government protesters in Tahrir Square today: "The demonstrators have their voice loud and clear in asking for change and asking for reform. They are asking for a new era in Egypt and those demands and aspirations, I do share. Egypt needs a new beginning." #1522: The BBC's Lyse Doucet tweets: "Curfew in Cairo. Soldiers now stopping people from crossing Qasr Nil bridge towards Tahrir Sq #jan25 #egypt" Al Jazeera is still showing about a million or so protesters in Alexandria, a large mixture of Muslims and Christians apparently. There are still tons in Cairo as well and it doesn't seem like many have left despite the curfew passing a while ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
visionary Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-12307698 #1621: Rosa Navarro, an American who was arrested and detained overnight at the Intelligence HQ, gives the BBC a disturbing account of her detention: "I went out with a friend yesterday to buy sim cards. We stopped by his house and while waiting for a cab we were approached by police officers in uniform. They asked us for our passports, released us and then came back two minutes later and we were arrested. We were interrogated and accused of being spies and in Egypt to bring down the Egyptian government. I was left blindfolded and sitting with around 50 or 60 other Westerners who had been picked up while waiting for a bus, or a taxi or just walking on the street. None of them, like myself, were arrested near the protest." I had a feeling this sort of tactic of arresting foreigners as spies would be used last week. On Al Jazeera they're showing the protesters in Alexandria are all marching around and now setting up camp outside of the train station and will not leave until their demands have been met. There's a lot of women and young ladies in the crowd too. There is some talk about the church bombings a month ago. People there say it is actually safer for Christians now, because there are no police around. At the moment the protesters in Alexandria seem to drown out the street in people. Tarir Square is still as crowded as ever as well, with staggering numbers of people refusing to go back home. The politicians and the army have tried to convince them to go home, but they are not budging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BRAVEONAWARPATH Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2011/02/03/AR2011020305173.html?hpid=opinionsbox1 Toward a soft landing in EgyptWho doesn't love a democratic revolution? Who is not moved by the renunciation of fear and the reclamation of dignity in the streets of Cairo and Alexandria? The worldwide euphoria that has greeted the Egyptian uprising is understandable. All revolutions are blissful in the first days. The romance could be forgiven if this were Paris 1789. But it is not. In the intervening 222 years, we have learned how these things can end. The Egyptian awakening carries promise and hope and of course merits our support. But only a child can believe that a democratic outcome is inevitable. And only a blinkered optimist can believe that it is even the most likely outcome. Yes, the Egyptian revolution is broad-based. But so were the French and the Russian and the Iranian revolutions. Indeed in Iran, the revolution only succeeded - the shah was long opposed by the mullahs - when the merchants, the housewives, the students and the secularists joined to bring him down. And who ended up in control? The most disciplined, ruthless and ideologically committed - the radical Islamists. This is why our paramount moral and strategic interest in Egypt is real democracy in which power does not devolve to those who believe in one man, one vote, one time. That would be Egypt's fate should the Muslim Brotherhood prevail. That was the fate of Gaza, now under the brutal thumb of Hamas, a Palestinian wing (see Article 2 of Hamas's founding covenant) of the Muslim Brotherhood. We are told by sage Western analysts not to worry about the Brotherhood because it probably commands only about 30 percent of the vote. This is reassurance? In a country where the secular democratic opposition is weak and fractured after decades of persecution, any Islamist party commanding a third of the vote rules the country. Elections will be held. The primary U.S. objective is to guide a transition period that gives secular democrats a chance. The House of Mubarak is no more. He is 82, reviled and not running for reelection. The only question is who fills the vacuum. There are two principal possibilities: a provisional government of opposition forces, possibly led by Mohamed ElBaradei, or an interim government led by the military. ElBaradei would be a disaster. As head of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), he did more than anyone to make an Iranian nuclear bomb possible, covering for the mullahs for years. (As soon as he left, the IAEA issued a strikingly tough, unvarnished report about the program.) Worse, ElBaradei has allied himself with the Muslim Brotherhood. Such an alliance is grossly unequal. The Brotherhood has organization, discipline and widespread support. In 2005, it won approximately 20 percent of parliamentary seats. ElBaradei has no constituency of his own, no political base, no political history within Egypt at all. He has lived abroad for decades. He has less of a residency claim to Egypt than Rahm Emanuel has to Chicago. A man with no constituency allied with a highly organized and powerful political party is nothing but a mouthpiece and a figurehead, a useful idiot whom the Brotherhood will dispense with when it ceases to have need of a cosmopolitan frontman. The Egyptian military, on the other hand, is the most stable and important institution in the country. It is Western-oriented and rightly suspicious of the Brotherhood. And it is widely respected, carrying the prestige of the 1952 Free Officers Movement that overthrew the monarchy and the 1973 October War that restored Egyptian pride along with the Sinai. The military is the best vehicle for guiding the country to free elections over the coming months. Whether it does so with Mubarak at the top, or with Vice President Omar Suleiman or perhaps with some technocrat who arouses no ire among the demonstrators, matters not to us. If the army calculates that sacrificing Mubarak (through exile) will satisfy the opposition and end the unrest, so be it. The overriding objective is a period of stability during which secularists and other democratic elements of civil society can organize themselves for the coming elections and prevail. ElBaradei is a menace. Mubarak will be gone one way or the other. The key is the military. The United States should say very little in public and do everything behind the scenes to help the military midwife - and then guarantee - what is still something of a long shot: Egyptian democracy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Brave Little Toaster Oven Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 OTOH, on the optimistic-viewpoint side: The military, to me, is really looking like Good Guys, here. Wondering if the head of the military might emerge as the head of a political group. Would the military commander be an acceptable head of a transitional government? Make him "acting President" for 8 months? Maybe somebody in the US could mention George Washington to him? Having met plenty of the upper members of the Egyptian military force, I can say that I would wholeheartedly welcome that if it were to happen. They are very smart guys and capable of doing great things to advance democracy in Egypt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FanboyOf91 Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 I don't think the the officer corps wants a democracy that inquires about its "special" arrangements. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
visionary Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Tarir Square today Alexandria Pretoria, South Africa ---------------- http://news.blogs.cnn.com/2011/02/04/egypt-crisis-troops-in-riot-gear-approach-tahrir-square-early-friday/?hpt=T1 [update 6:28 p.m. in Cairo, 11:28 a.m. ET] A security force accompanied by a "gang of thugs" stormed the office of the Muslim Brotherhood's news website Friday and arrested the journalists, technicians, and administrators who were present, the group said on its website. Eyewitnesses later saw those arrested taken to the headquarters of the nearby Interior Ministry, the group said. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-12307698 #1630: Mubarak supporters have been staging a rally in the upscale Mohandessin district of Cairo. But witnesses say the turnout numbers in the dozens rather than the thousands.1630AFP reports that cleric Khaled al-Marakbi told Muslims during Friday prayers at Tahrir Square: "We were born free and we shall live free", while also asking them to show patience. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-12307698 #1643: More from Frank Gardner: "The key to all this is Omar Suleiman. The best hope for Egypt is for him to head some kind of caretaker government until free elections. But there are a lot of people interested in maintaining the status quo. We've seen massive institutional intimidation of the media and rights groups." ---------- Post added February-4th-2011 at 12:42 PM ---------- http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-12307698 #1729: Dominic Waghorn, writing on Sky News' Middle East blog, says: "Hotels near the square have also informed journalists they are not allowed on balconies overlooking the square and camera equipment has been seized by hotel security, apparently under instructions from the government." #1737: Latest from the BBC's Jim Muir in Tahrir Square: The crowd is probably about two-thirds of what it was at its maximum. There are still thousands of people here, milling about in the dark listening to speeches and so on, occasionally bursting into chants asking Mubarak to leave. I expect many of them have been relieved that after the days of violence they have spent today letting off steam. But some of them will be asking themselves where do we go now?" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavyDave Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 LMAO! Every day we hear the Brotherhood brought up by the politicians and the media over and over again. I don't particularly trust them, but to say they are being downplayed is...well...silly. Not sure what to say to the rest of that.... You obviously did not watch CNN or BBC the other day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Brave Little Toaster Oven Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 LMAO! Every day we hear the Brotherhood brought up by the politicians and the media over and over again. I don't particularly trust them, but to say they are being downplayed is...well...silly. Not sure what to say to the rest of that.... I dont give a flying **** about Israel.... but, if the Brotherhood were to takeover, you better believe their military will be decimated because there goes that $1.5B annually they were getting...that has to come into play. Also, I dont think they would be allowed to use the weapons we gave them to attack Israel due to arms-restriction laws we have when we give them weapons. Israel got in trouble as well as Lebanon for using our weapons in their war Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JMS Posted February 4, 2011 Author Share Posted February 4, 2011 Another thought that came to me, while I was contemplating the idea of Hamas trying to get involved in this. IF Hamas can gain power out of this chaos, then they would be in a position to break the blockade of Gaza. And that would make them heroes. So, they not only have the organization and the money, but one hell of a motive. I think the breaking of the GAZA blockade is the least of Israel's concerns if the mubaric government breaks up immediately and the Brotherhood has a share of the power. I mean their peace deal is off, the next step would be war. Israel or Egypt strikinng first it's pretty much a toss up. If Egypt breaks the peace agreement, Israel pretty much needs the Sinai back for their buffer zone. I don't think they would be bashful about going after it either. OTOH, on the optimistic-viewpoint side: The military, to me, is really looking like Good Guys, here. Wondering if the head of the military might emerge as the head of a political group. Would the military commander be an acceptable head of a transitional government? Make him "acting President" for 8 months? Maybe somebody in the US could mention George Washington to him? Absolutely the military ruling an interum government would be stabilizing force from our end. Problem is we wouldn't want him to turn into another Mubaric and rule for the next 30-40 years. We really need to ensure fair and free elections are held and let the chips fall where they may. ---------- Post added February-4th-2011 at 01:07 PM ---------- Also, I dont think they would be allowed to use the weapons we gave them to attack Israel due to arms-restriction laws we have when we give them weapons. Israel got in trouble as well as Lebanon for using our weapons in their war you think they are going to ask for permission? If the brotherhood takes over it will be like Iran and Iraq all over again. Maybe not a decade long war, but certainly decades of war. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Brave Little Toaster Oven Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 you think they are going to ask for permission? If the brotherhood takes over it will be like Iran and Iraq all over again. Maybe not a decade long war, but certainly decades of war. Not at all, but they will have sanctions in place against them for quite a while if they do. Plus, they'll get demolished by Israel if they do....it'll be a suicide mission. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heyholetsgogrant Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Prez Obama will be having a press conference today at 3pm and will be taking questions on Egypt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Brave Little Toaster Oven Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 The Prez Obama will be having a press conference today at 3pm and will be taking questions on Egypt. There's supposed to be some announcement coming from Egypt today I believe...hopefully its Mubarak stepping down ---------- Post added February-4th-2011 at 01:22 PM ---------- The BBC's Rupert Wingfield-Hayes reports on the changing composition of the crowd in Tahrir Square: "This did not start as an Islamic uprising, but the actions of the Mubarak regime have forced many of the middle class protesters off the street, and what is left is much more hard line." That's not the greatest news... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpyaks3 Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Why is everyone assuming that the Muslim Brotherhood would not work within a democracy? People are just going with the base assumption that the Muslim Brotherhood would be a dictatorship...why is this? Does anyone have any proof of anything like that? Iran is not an analogous example because of the massive differences in structure of Shiite and Sunni Islam along with a host of other factors. Hamas isn't a great one either because they didn't even get a chance to govern before Fatah started a civil war with the United States help and they also were blockaded and had aid cut off. So I wouldn't think that is a good example either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Larry Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 1) I don't think that everyone is just assuming that the Brotherhood will be a fanatical dictatorship. I think everybody agrees that it's a possibility, though. 2) As to why do they think that? How many true democracies do you see, in the Mideast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hunter44 Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 1) I don't think that everyone is just assuming that the Brotherhood will be a fanatical dictatorship. I think everybody agrees that it's a possibility, though. 2) As to why do they think that? How many true democracies do you see, in the Mideast? We don't really like democracies in the ME. They tend to vote for people that we don't like. OTOH we like dictators a lot. They are easier to pay off and bribe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
visionary Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 From watching Al Jazeera the crowd in Tarir is still quite large. It doesn't seem to have lost much in the way of numbers. I'm curious to see what is up in Alexandria now. I also wonder what happened to CNN. CNN International was covering a lot of it in the morning, but then they just stopped covering live it seemed. Ok, the crowd looks pretty big still in Alexandria too. Wow. Although I'm not quite sure when this was made. Clearly it was some time late friday night. RSdiCYSg8sY Hmm, 7:58pm Tens of thousands of people are protesting against Mubarak in the Egyptian port city of Alexandria: So it was a little less than two hours ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpyaks3 Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 We don't really like democracies in the ME. They tend to vote for people that we don't like. OTOH we like dictators a lot. They are easier to pay off and bribe. Exactly, we are the reason there aren't many democracies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JMS Posted February 4, 2011 Author Share Posted February 4, 2011 Exactly, we are the reason there aren't many democracies. I agree traditionally we have at times worked against democracies... Like in Iran in the 1950's for instance. I disagree that we are the reason their are no democracies in the ME. I also disagree that we are currently working to stop and emerging democracy in the ME. I believe sincerely that the best hope for a democracy in Egypt is to hold elections in a few months. All concessions to the protesters should be geared around insuring those elections are free and fair. From our perspective it's much more important now to ensure another dictator doesn't jump to the front of the line as Mubaric is retiring. That could occur from both inside and outside the government. I believe our goals is to ensure that doesn't happen. ---------- Post added February-4th-2011 at 02:47 PM ---------- Exactly, we are the reason there aren't many democracies. Dude, You've got a birds eye seat don't you. give us the skinny... what are you seeting what have you done? Did you get involved in the horse camel charge? Remember horses won't step on someone laying down. Saw it in a Ghandi movie.... Not to sure about camels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
visionary Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 This is interesting: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/02/04/egypt-protests-mubarak_n_818599.html Translator Jafar Jafari reports the following information from Khaled Abdel Kader, Chairman of Egyptian Geologists Society, who spoke by by telephone from Tahrir Square:I am authorized to present a list of demands by the university students, graduates and under grads, participating and present at the Square:The objective is to solidify this popular revolution and bring the downfall of the regime, not just Mubarak, for its crimes against the Egyptian people throughout its 30 years. Immediate removal of Mubarak from the presidency and as Commander in Chief of the Armed Forces, effective January 25, 2011. Nullification of all measures and decrees that were issued after that date. Immediately dissolve the two houses of Parliament since it lost legitimacy. Appointment of Commander Sami Anan, Chairman of Joint Chiefs of Staff, as provisional president as an acknowledgement of the armed forces role till the presidential elections are held. Should he decline, we nominate Amr Mousa, of the Arab League, to hold that office provided that he takes oath in front of High Court Council and to include his pledge to fulfill popular demands of political and economic reforms. Formation of a broader government headed by Dr. Mohammad El-Baradei to include all the factions participating in this revolution: January 25 Movement; Muslim Brotherhood; Kifaya; Al-Ghad Party; National Front Party; Nasserists; and other participants. Its sole mission is to maintain law and order. Not sure how many people this represents. It is probably the first list of actual goals I've seen so far from the folks in the street. I don't know if any of that will be agreed to or how many are for those specific measures. It does seem like some people at least are thinking of what they want besides just getting rid of Mubarak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Brave Little Toaster Oven Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 From a friend of mine that is going to school at the American U in Cairo... It is all relatively ok where I am. Uni has been postponed for two weeks so that kinda sucks. We have curfew and the net has been cut off for 3 days but now it has been back for the past 2 days so that is good.The protests are still on but not as violent as they have been so that is an improvement. I wish I could go on the streets and see more of all of this but not allowed and all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JMS Posted February 4, 2011 Author Share Posted February 4, 2011 This is interesting:http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/02/04/egypt-protests-mubarak_n_818599.html Not sure how many people this represents. It is probably the first list of actual goals I've seen so far from the folks in the street. I don't know if any of that will be agreed to or how many are for those specific measures. It does seem like some people at least are thinking of what they want besides just getting rid of Mubarak. The army chief os staff as the provisonal government is brilliant, as long as he's not a candidate in six months. It will ensure calm and avoid chaos. I don't understand the last part. "Formation of a broader government headed by El-Baradei? ( + MB) . Why do they need to form a government at all if they have a provisional gov and they are going to hold elections? That's a non starter in my book. I want no part of a power sharing agreement with the Brotherhood that they haven't earned through an election. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
visionary Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/02/04/egypt-protests-mubarak_n_818599.html#463_interviews-with-average-egyptians- Today 2:21 PM Interviews With Average Egyptians Translator Jafar Jafari reports that BBC Arabic interviewed average Egyptian citizens, learning that those who were captured and questioned by the demonstrators and residents virtually all were promised an additional month’s salary; meaning that they are employees of the State. They included employees of the Ministry of Oil, Ministry of Justice, Ministry of Transportation and others. Some were actually professionally dressed, while others were clearly poor, dressed in local garb and ill or non-educated. They said that some neighborhood friends came to support Mubarak after being given 50-100 Egyptian pounds. Some extracted information clearly points to the direct responsibility of the new prime minister. (Jafar notes that the anchorwoman repeated the question to verify PM Shafik’s responsibility and the caller responded affirmatively.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FanboyOf91 Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Better to have Muslim Brotherhood in the tent pissing out than outside the tent pissing in. (h/t LBJ) A divided opposition will get cut up by the army/NDP. Note: I don't think the MB should be allowed in any leadership positions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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