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db: Gibbs: America Will Not Take Sides in Egypt


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Better to have Muslim Brotherhood in the tent pissing out than outside the tent pissing in. (h/t LBJ)

A divided opposition will get cut up by the army/NDP.

Note: I don't think the MB should be allowed in any leadership positions.

i'm not saying you exclude the Brotherhood from the process. I'm saying they should have to compete for votes like everybody else is all. I don't think they should be gifted prestege or a share of power because they turned out in the protests. I think that's the least obtrusiveness we should work towards. If the Egyptian people want to take their gove that directions that's one thing. It's an entirely different thing for an organized minority party like the Brotherhood to usurp power and prestege during a chaotic transistion.

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I don't understand the last part. "Formation of a broader government headed by El-Baradei? ( + MB) . Why do they need to form a government at all if they have a provisional gov and they are going to hold elections?

That's a non starter in my book. I want no part of a power sharing agreement with the Brotherhood that they haven't earned through an election.

I'm not crazy about the idea either. El Baradei seems to disappear and reappear a bit too much too.

On the other hand, I've heard the government repeatedly mention the inclusion of the Muslim Brotherhood in the transition talks.

So they may have already decided to include them no matter what is decided ultimately.

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I'm not crazy about the idea either. El Baradei seems to disappear and reappear a bit too much too.

On the other hand, I've heard the government repeatedly mention the inclusion of the Muslim Brotherhood in the transition talks.

So they may have already decided to include them no matter what is decided ultimately.

From what I can tell the proposal is Mubaric steps down, the Military takes over until the next elections. The brotherhood and everybody else takes their chances in those elections to form the next government. That's the proposal on the table, and I think that's a reasonable one....

The brotherhoods position is Mubaric should step down and Al Baradei forms a new government with themselves part of his coelition. Which I would oppose. Al Baradei is been living in exile for a decade. He's too politically weak and disconnected to manage a coelition government. The brotherhood would walk all over him, and everybody knows it.

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From what I can tell the proposal is Mubaric steps down, the Military takes over until the next elections. The brotherhood and everybody else takes their chances in those elections to form the next government. That's the proposal on the table, and I think that's a reasonable one....

The brotherhoods position is Mubaric should step down and Al Baradei forms a new government with themselves part of his coelition. Which I would oppose. Al Baradei is been living in exile for a decade. He's too politically weak and disconnected to manage a coelition government. The brotherhood would walk all over him, and everybody knows it.

The other thing is that I have yet to hear any sign from those in the government that Mubarak stepping down is even on the table.

I did hear a mention earlier from some supposed opposition leader (I heard some conflicting reports about him) who said that there is discussion on the table of having Mubarak be president in name, while Suleiman is given all the presidential powers. Not sure the people protesting would be for that, although he said there was support among them for the idea.

---------- Post added February-4th-2011 at 03:18 PM ----------

Another video of the crowd in Tahrir Square today.

yv19jef2AEc

Absolutely massive.

Hard to see just how far the crowd stretched.

It's hard to see in the darkness there in the live footage on Al Jazeera tv at the moment, but the crowd still looks by far the largest that it has been this late before.

In Alexandria there are still thousands striking outside the main train station apparently despite the pouring rain.

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I'm much more optimistic today. Beside the level of threat the Muslim Brotherhood poses, it seems we are all on the same page (e.g. Mubarak has to go now, transitional government preferbly lead by someone in the military, open and free elections DOWN THE ROAD, etc) and if ES almost uniformly agrees on something, it's gotta be right. Reading the student demands that were just posted, the protesters want the same thing. Mubarak needs to stop delaying the inevitable.

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I'm much more optimistic today. Beside the level of threat the Muslim Brotherhood poses, it seems we are all on the same page (e.g. Mubarak has to go now, transitional government preferbly lead by someone in the military, open and free elections DOWN THE ROAD, etc) and if ES almost uniformly agrees on something, it's gotta be right. Reading the student demands that were just posted, the protesters want the same thing. Mubarak needs to stop delaying the inevitable.

How about we all agree that I should be named president and allowed to live in a pyramid (assuming some renovations can be made)?

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http://news.blogs.cnn.com/2011/02/04/egypt-crisis-troops-in-riot-gear-approach-tahrir-square-early-friday/?hpt=T1

from earlier today.

[update 7:14 p.m. in Cairo, 12:14 p.m. ET] Authorities have no word on the whereabouts of three French journalists and a French researcher in Egypt, according to France's Foreign Ministry. The journalists work for Le Figaro newspaper and Magneto Presse, and the researcher is employed by Amnesty International, it said.

Obama and Harper are on now. Obama made some more comments about Egypt.

Nothing that much more than before though.

They're talking to a former security council member (William Quandt) now on Al Jazeera who says that his contacts in the administration right now seem fairly positive about getting a smooth transition going in the next few days and the overall outcome of this. He says the people he's talked to are pretty confidant that this will turn out all right and this will not be another Iran.

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From what I can tell the proposal is Mubaric steps down, the Military takes over until the next elections. The brotherhood and everybody else takes their chances in those elections to form the next government. That's the proposal on the table, and I think that's a reasonable one....

The brotherhoods position is Mubaric should step down and Al Baradei forms a new government with themselves part of his coelition. Which I would oppose. Al Baradei is been living in exile for a decade. He's too politically weak and disconnected to manage a coelition government. The brotherhood would walk all over him, and everybody knows it.

I think this would actually work fairly well since the people have an enormous respect for the army, just have to make sure the army doesn't play kingmaker.

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Fareed Zakaria on CNN seems very disturbed by the number of politicians who are being ousted and arrested and blamed for what has been going on. He says that we may be seeing a reformation of Egypt as a different military dictatorship that has caused chaos and thrown the reformers and the president under the bus and blamed them for it and consolidated control for itself for years to come.

It's odd to see him suddenly so negative about all this.

He's been fairly positive about the future of Egypt the last few days.

I'm not really sure why he seems to think the military is behind all the stuff that happened.

It seems mostly the opposite of the evidence I've seen so far.

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How about we all agree that I should be named president and allowed to live in a pyramid (assuming some renovations can be made)?

I'm down. As long as you put a penthouse in the head of the Sphinx for me.

---------- Post added February-4th-2011 at 04:55 PM ----------

I think this would actually work fairly well since the people have an enormous respect for the army, just have to make sure the army doesn't play kingmaker.

That's my biggest concern. It's always a very real possibility when a military gets involved in governance.

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How about we all agree that I should be named president and allowed to live in a pyramid (assuming some renovations can be made)?

You do know the pharoh's didn't live in those things... They are tombs. you being named president and going to live in a pyramid sounds like an Outer Limits episode with Burges Merideth.

---------- Post added February-4th-2011 at 04:05 PM ----------

Fareed Zakaria on CNN seems very disturbed by the number of politicians who are being ousted and arrested and blamed for what has been going on. He says that we may be seeing a reformation of Egypt as a different military dictatorship that has caused chaos and thrown the reformers and the president under the bus and blamed them for it and consolidated control for itself for years to come.

That's exactly correct. Their is danger inside and outside of Egypts power struggle. Nasser and Mubarik both came out of the military to assume power and install themselves as dictators. That is certainly a danger.

It's odd to see him suddenly so negative about all this.

He's been fairly positive about the future of Egypt the last few days.

I'm not really sure why he seems to think the military is behind all the stuff that happened.

It seems mostly the opposite of the evidence I've seen so far.

We won't know for sure until elections occur. I'm a big Fareed fan. He's got one of the smartest shows on TV sunday mornings. I didn't start out as a fan of his or his networks, but he won me over.

---------- Post added February-4th-2011 at 04:09 PM ----------

I'm much more optimistic today. Beside the level of threat the Muslim Brotherhood poses, it seems we are all on the same page (e.g. Mubarak has to go now, transitional government preferbly lead by someone in the military, open and free elections DOWN THE ROAD, etc) and if ES almost uniformly agrees on something, it's gotta be right. Reading the student demands that were just posted, the protesters want the same thing. Mubarak needs to stop delaying the inevitable.

We were just talking about that. The students demands call for both a military run provisional governement and a power sharing government run by El-Baradi with the Muslim Brotherhood and others... I don't get why they want both if elections are just a few months away....

I've heard we are in talks with the protesters and are offering the first part, not the latter.

you are right no word on where Mubarik stands on all this. It would seem to me though if he doesn't have the support of the military or the people.. he will have no choice but to leave.

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CNN has live footage from inside Tarir square tonight they say, because they apparently have found a place the secret police don't have access to.

Right now they're showing Ben Wedeman walking calmly around the crowd earlier explaining the situation and interviewing some people in the square.

On the other side of the screen there is live footage of Tarir Square in the dark.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-12307698

#2149: The BBC's Gaza and West Bank correspondent says the Palestinian response to the protests has been confusingly mixed - Hamas don't like Mr Mubarak and want him to go, others support him because he backs Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas, while others have been inspired in turn to protest against Hamas. "All of this is a a pretty good indicator of just how fractured Palestinian politics is," says our correspondent.
#2155: Amnesty tweets: "Breaking: Amnesty staff and other internationals have been released in #Cairo&returning to hotels! Awaiting complete details."

What Obama had to say today and what officials in Egypt and the US are saying privately:

http://www.cnn.com/2011/POLITICS/02/04/egypt.us.response/index.html?hpt=T1

Zakaria is on CNN again talking to Wolf Blitzer.

Nic Robertson is saying that after the crowd moved in Alexandria, he and others tried to get closer, but there are a lot of young men with sticks and clubs waiting in the alleys who were not happy to see foreigners wandering around at night.

According to Al Jazeera their bureau chief and a journalist in Cairo were arrested by police.

(this is new I think. The government can not be happy with Al Jazeera's 24 hour coverage of the protests)

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Not sure how many people this represents. It is probably the first list of actual goals I've seen so far from the folks in the street. I don't know if any of that will be agreed to or how many are for those specific measures. It does seem like some people at least are thinking of what they want besides just getting rid of Mubarak.

My suspicion is that the Tea Party is a well-oiled, unified, machine, compared to these protesters.

Heck, on the "level of organization" scale, the protesters probably rank below the Democratic Party. :)

----------

Still, I like the idea of the military taking over between now and the election.

---------- Post added February-4th-2011 at 06:56 PM ----------

i'm not saying you exclude the Brotherhood from the process. I'm saying they should have to compete for votes like everybody else is all. I don't think they should be gifted prestege or a share of power because they turned out in the protests. I think that's the least obtrusiveness we should work towards. If the Egyptian people want to take their gove that directions that's one thing. It's an entirely different thing for an organized minority party like the Brotherhood to usurp power and prestege during a chaotic transistion.

Just pointing out, I think that the Brotherhood, right now, is the largest non-Mubaric voting block in Parliament. I've heard 20%.

They have been elected.

---------- Post added February-4th-2011 at 06:59 PM ----------

I don't understand the last part. "Formation of a broader government headed by El-Baradei?
I'm not crazy about the idea either. El Baradei seems to disappear and reappear a bit too much too.

On the other hand, I've heard the government repeatedly mention the inclusion of the Muslim Brotherhood in the transition talks.

So they may have already decided to include them no matter what is decided ultimately.

Theory: I think that one of the thing the protesters want is Constitutional Reform. Maybe what they're saying is that they want El Baradei to head up that operation?

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Not sure if this has been posted

Egypt VP Target of Assassination Attempt That Killed Two Bodyguards, Sources Tell Fox News

Read more: http://www.foxnews.com/world/2011/02/04/egypt-vp-targeted-assassination-attempt-killed-bodyguards-sources-tell-fox-news/#ixzz1D36ddSQA

A failed assassination attempt on Egypt's vice president in recent days left two of his bodyguards dead, sources tell Fox News.

Such an attempt on the life of Omar Suleiman would mark an alarming turn in the uprising against the government of President Hosni Mubarak, who only recently named Suleiman as vice president in an effort to quell the unrest and possibly line up a successor.

A senior Obama administration official confirmed that the attack happened soon after Suleiman was appointed, on Jan. 29. The official described it as an organized attack on Suleiman's motorcade.

Read more: http://www.foxnews.com/world/2011/02/04/egypt-vp-targeted-assassination-attempt-killed-bodyguards-sources-tell-fox-news/#ixzz1D36nKqKs

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I would suspect that this is somebody else in the Cabinet. (Maybe the head of the secret police thought he was second in line?)

Although, no doubt there's lots of potential suspects.

One of Zelazny's
Amber
novels refers to a painting. A King, seated on his throne, in a darkened throne room. Shadows all about. The King is obviously troubled. Thinking.

"I'm paranoid. But am I paranoid enough?"

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One of Zelazny's
Amber
novels refers to a painting. A King, seated on his throne, in a darkened throne room. Shadows all about. The King is obviously troubled. Thinking.

"I'm paranoid. But am I paranoid enough?"

Nice. I don't see too many Amber references these days.

Some updates from earlier:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-12307698

2314: More on the activist George Ishak who outlined how the protests are to develop (see entry at 2112). He says: "The protest will remain in Tahrir Square all weekdays, while Friday of each week will begin with a demonstration like today. Second, this situation will remain till the president steps down and people achieve their freedom. Third, we encourage our great people to facilitate business in a way that keep the doors of earning a living open for Egyptian people.
#2318: Another compelling first-hand account of harsh treatment at the hands of Egypt's secret police, this time in the New York Times by reporters Souad Mekhennet and Nicholas Kulish, who say: "The worst part had nothing to do with our treatment. It was seeing - and in particular hearing through the walls of this dreadful facility - the abuse of Egyptians at the hands of their own government."
#2358: Yehia in Alexandria has been telling the BBC about how the protesters have set up neighbourhood watch schemes to protect themselves from attack: "The army are helping on the nigh****ch by standing with us and giving us advice on where to watch for thugs. They are only taking part if something happens, like we catch someone and they need to take them away."
#0003: The BBC's Chris Hogg reports from Beijing on how the protests are being reported in state media: "The censors in China are allowing journalists to report the unrest in Egypt, but not the reasons behind it. When the protests started the People's Daily, the Communist Party's official newspaper told its readers: 'Among the protestors there are some who are anti-government, some who want a higher salary or welfare, but many of them are criminals who just want to take the opportunity to engage in beating, smashing, looting or burning.' Since then the paper's been concentrating on concerns about the instability the protests are creating. That echoes a message the government here repeats often, that a popular expression of discontent can be dangerous."
0010: Mr Mubarak's allies have been talking up the dialogue they say has begun with the opposition, but most of the opposition have spent the day denying being involved in talks. Hossam Abdallah from the opposition party the National Association for Change says Mr Mubarak "is an obstacle to the whole process", adding: "If it is fear for himself, if [he wants to] leave with dignity, this can be guaranteed."

http://news.blogs.cnn.com/2011/02/04/egypt-crisis-troops-in-riot-gear-approach-tahrir-square-early-friday/?hpt=T1

[update 4:30 a.m. in Cairo, 9:30 p.m. ET] A spokesman for the Muslim Brotherhood, told CNN's John King that his organization will not participate in Egypt's general election now planned for September. He said that any talks regarding Egypt's future should only take place after Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak steps down.

---------- Post added February-4th-2011 at 10:37 PM ----------

http://news.blogs.cnn.com/2011/02/04/egypt-crisis-troops-in-riot-gear-approach-tahrir-square-early-friday/?hpt=T1

[update 4:30 a.m. in Cairo, 9:30 p.m. ET]Ammar Sherie is a renowned musician. Naguib Sawiris made billions in the telecom business. Veteran diplomat Amre Moussa is the Arab League's secretary-general.

These three and 16 other Egyptians have put their heads and hearts together to form the "Committee of the Wise," a group of independent elite that wants to be at the table during crucial government transition talks.

The committee late Friday called on protests to continue at Tahrir Square every Tuesday and Friday until President Hosni Mubarak "resigns and makes true the demands of the people."

More about that:

http://www.cnn.com/2011/WORLD/africa/02/04/egypt.wise.committee/index.html

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Hey visionary, thanks for all the tweets, links and information you're posting. I really appreciate it.

Thanks. I wasn't sure if they help or not.

Generally if I see something that I think is important or that I think people here might be interested in reading, I've been posting it.

Hopefully it's easier for folks who don't have time to flip from channel to channel and site to site like I do.

I do worry that people might think I'm spamming the thread though. lol

--------------------------------------------

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-12307698

#0717: On the subject of talks, US officials are saying a meeting between Egypt's leaders and the opposition could be held in the coming days, perhaps even this weekend. The Muslim Brotherhood is not expected to attend.

I wonder if this is because people/government/military/whoever doesn't want them included or because the Brotherhood is taking themselves out of it. Or maybe they're refusing to take part because they don't feel their demands have been met.

Because so far most ideas for how to start the transition have mentioned the Brotherhood as being included. On the other hand I was under the impression that most of the opposition leaders were saying they won't talk until Mubarak steps down anyway.

#0724: Latest word is that newly appointed Vice President Omar Suleiman WILL meet opposition leaders in Cairo today. Egypt's Finance Minister Samir Radwan also told the BBC in a telephone interview that he is expecting banks to reopen on Sunday, and the Stock Market to resume work on Monday.

Hmmm. I also recall the VP saying a bunch of times already that he had been talking to opposition and most of the leaders had completely denied it.

------

Apparently I'm not the only one thinking about this.

0744: Will they, won't they talk today? There's still no word on this from the anti-Mubarak camp who have so far refused to enter discussions before the president steps down.

---------- Post added February-5th-2011 at 02:32 AM ----------

Uh oh!

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-12307698

#0720: Reports say there has been a blast near Egypt's gas pipeline with Israel in north Sinai. So far only on Reuters news agency.
#0728: AFP news agency is now confirming an attack on gas supplies to Israel. Reporting from Cairo, it quotes an official and says: "Unknown attackers blew up an Egyptian terminal supplying gas to Israel near the Gaza Strip on Saturday."
#0739: Egyptian state TV says the gas pipeline is on fire in the northern Sinai Peninsula. "The blast and the fire erupted Saturday morning near the Egyptian town of El Arish. Residents say they heard the sound of an explosion, and that massive flames shot into the air," the Associated Press reports.

I wonder who did it.

This could start up all sorts of conspiracy theories on every side.

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http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-12307698

#0815: Mosa'ab Elshamy writes in a couple of tweets: "We're sitting in front of their tanks after the army tried to remove the barricades we set up near the musuem. Thousands of protesters surrounding them now, making it clear the tanks will have to run them over before moving any further. #Tahrir"

Some more info on what the opposition might ask for:

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/ml_egypt

ElBaradei and other protest leaders demand more. They want an end to an emergency law that gives security forces near unlimited powers and demand greater freedom to form political parties. Currently, any new party effectively needs approval by Mubarak's ruling party. As a result, the existing opposition parties are largely shells with little popular support or organization.

Suleiman has not mentioned either issue. He served as intelligence chief and Mubarak's top aide until being elevated to vice president, and is mistrusted by some as a regime figure, but others have spoken him as an acceptable interim president.

ElBaradei said he respects Suleiman as someone to negotiate with over the transition.

ElBaradei said he was consulting with lawyers and experts to draw up a temporary constitution. He called for a transitional government headed by a presidential council of two or three figures, including a military representative. It would hold power for a year while a permanent constitution is drawn up, then elections could take place.

And more about the gas pipeline that apparently was damaged/attacked

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-12307698

#0758: Latest reports say the Egyptian army has closed off the main source of gas to the pipeline on fire in Sinai. The authorities are saying it was blown up but that's not been confirmed yet.
#0816: Israel's gas pipeline may not have been hit by the blast - that's coming from Israel radio, quoted by Reuters. The news agency is reporting that the Jordanian branch of the pipe has been damaged. In any event it looks like Egypt's gas supply to Israel has been stopped as a precaution.

State TV is saying that foreign elements are behind the attack.

This could get nasty.

One analyst on Al Jazeera is bringing up the possibility that the Bedouins may be behind it.

Interesting.

---------- Post added February-5th-2011 at 03:55 AM ----------

Some updates on the transition talk situation:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-12307698

#0839: We've just heard from Cairo that the banned Islamist group, the Muslim Brotherhood, has said it IS ready to take part in talks with the government. But it says its participation is conditional on the regime responding to the demands of the people. This shift in stance may help break the impasse, the BBC's Magdi Abdelhadi in Cairo says.
#0847: For those of you who need reminding - the Muslim Brotherhood have been hesitant about entering talks. Until now they have demanded President Mubarak step down immediately. The government accuses the Brotherhood, founded in 1928, of masterminding the protests in Tahrir Square - but there's little evidence of this.
#0853: More news from Cairo - two opposition parties have apparently responded to the dialogue invitation. "Al-Wafd and Al-Tajammu participate in dialogue about political and constitutional reform," Egyptian Nile News TV reported in an "urgent" screen caption.
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http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-12307698

#0914: The blast in Sinai was "nowhere near" the pipeline running to Israel, Israel radio says. About 40% of Israel's natural gas is supplied by Egypt under a 1979 peace accord.

So are they saying that there was no reason to turn off the gas to Israel?

I'm not sure if they turned off the gas or not. Here's the latest I see:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-12307698

#0933: AJELive AJELive The Jordan branch of the Sinai gas pipeline was attacked, not the one to Israel, Israel radio says. http://aje.me/ajelive #egypt #jan25

It sounds like a lot of people are going back to work and life is somewhat returning to normal for Cairo.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-12307698

#0946: Hamish Macdonald from Ten Network Australia tweets: "Situation is calmer in Cairo today but tv crews are still facing attacks this morning #Egypt #6pm."
#0947: Writer and journalist Jon Jensen tweets: "American journalist @Theodore_May has been detained by army in Tahrir. He was filming prayers with a Flip cam at the time. #Egypt #Jan25."
#0948: bb aisha tweets: "Just called a hostel downtown on behalf of a journo.said they aren't accommodating journos #fb #tahrir."
#0953: Britain's PM David Cameron says: "There is no stability in Egypt. We need change, reform and transition to get stability."

Clearly the government is still going after the media...which will only make coverage harsher on them.

-------------------

I hadn't even thought of the damage this pipeline attack/explosion could do to Jordan with the way things are going there.

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