Analyst predict $5.00 gas in 2012

[Duckus]

That is why I love my fit.

[deejaydana]

It is funny to me that Americans, probably more than those of any other country, feel that cheap gas is a birthright.

[Kosher Ham]

It's cool that you love your fit, but wouldn't a 66 percent increase upset you just a little ?

[88Comrade2000]

That is why I love my fit.

How is that, my sister is thinking of getting that.

[SWFLSkins]

Funny SWF, I'm actually in the business of economics and I specifically know that exactly zero economists claim that surging oil prices caused the housing bubble, while exactly 100% of economists recognize that the price of oil collapsed as global demand cratered due to the world's bubblenomics falling apart. Now, exactly why the bubblenomics fell apart can be debated, but you're quite literally the only person I've ever seen try to claim that the recession "started" with oil prices affecting all prices.

I can attest that as a member of the National Kitchen and Bath Association we discussed the possible recession, surcharges, material cost instability due to gas prices prior to the Real Estate bubble even reaching the peak. The NKBA runs the K/BIS and has 40,k members, so maybe the economist, 'mist' that one. Materials starting rising and then the housing prices got out of control, was it in direct relation IDK, but it surely did not help and definately accelerated the increase in prices. Granted speculation held and still holds a direct responsiblilty in the bubble, but your timeline on gas pricing as an effect is indeed wrong.

It started with drywall, cement and wood prices going up, sorry you don't agree, but sadly it effected my business and this market quite heavily. I personally had conversations with the individuals provided on this link that would back up what I am saying. We dealt with the big manufactuers suchs as Kohler, GE, on and on.......So that is where I am drawing my experiences from. I think they matter concerning this topic.

Maybe next time the top economist can actually go out and talk to industry professionals.

http://nkba.org/about.aspx

[88Comrade2000]

Forget about 2012, we could see $5/ gallon this summer. It's almost gauranted once we hit the Spring we are looking at $3.50 to $4.00/gallon. So $5/ gallon in the summer; especially if there's a major hurricane down south seems very possible in 2011.

If that happens in the summer of 2012; Obama could kiss his reelection goodbye.

[pointyfootball]

I remember learning in elementary school that the world was going to run out of oil by 2000, so it's inevitable that the price would be high when we don't have any more.

[AsburySkinsFan]

I can attest that as a member of the National Kitchen and Bath Association we discussed the possible recession, surcharges, material cost instability due to gas prices prior to the Real Estate bubble even reaching the peak. The NKBA runs the K/BIS and has 40,k members, so maybe the economist, 'mist' that one. Materials starting rising and then the housing prices got out of control, was it in direct relation IDK, but it surely did not help and definately accelerated the increase in prices. Granted speculation held and still holds a direct responsiblilty in the bubble, but your timeline on gas pricing as an effect is indeed wrong.

It started with drywall, cement and wood prices going up, sorry you don't agree, but sadly it effected my business and this market quite heavily. I personally had conversations with the individuals provided on this link that would back up what I am saying. We dealt with the big manufactuers suchs as Kohler, GE, on and on.......So that is where I am drawing my experiences from. I think they matter concerning this topic.

Maybe next time the top economist can actually go out and talk to industry professionals.

http://nkba.org/about.aspx

Hold on a second, let me see if I got this straight because I'm confused....you're telling me that there is a National Kitchen & Bath Association?!

---------- Post added December-28th-2010 at 02:32 PM ----------

I remember learning in elementary school that the world was going to run out of oil by 2000, so it's inevitable that the price would be high when we don't have any more.

Just imagine the wars that are going to ensue in the next 50 years over control of the remaining oil reserves. Saudi Arabia is going to need a bigger army.

[Popeman38]

You think $5/gallon is bad? Imagine if we taxed gas like Europe does?!? Britain is currently paying $1.90/liter. Or $7.22/gallon. And Britain only has the 10th highest petrol costs in Europe. Think about that for a minute.

[Kosher Ham]

Would you rather live in Europe ?

Not me.

[mojobo]

$5.00 might be a conservative estimate at this point. The bailouts that are going to be necessary to keep local, state, and federal government solvent are huge. Like I said in the other thread, its not just gas thats going up its everything.

[Predicto]

To think when I was a kid gas was easily less than a dollar.

Meh, when I was a kid a candy bar was a dime and a breadwinner was considered a big success when he made a 5 figure salary. Things change.

[deejaydana]

Would you rather live in Europe ?

Not me.

We may be there sooner than you think

[SWFLSkins]

Hold on a second, let me see if I got this straight because I'm confused....you're telling me that there is a National Kitchen & Bath Association?!

---------- ---------

Yeah maybe you would like to check it out, you might recognize some of the members from the items you use everyday installed in your home. If you are trying to minimalize the importance of the NKBA I guess there is no reaching you and you are still confused. Maybe you have watched HGTV before?

---------- Post added December-28th-2010 at 03:03 PM ----------

Meh, when I was a kid a candy bar was a dime and a breadwinner was considered a big success when he made a 5 figure salary. Things change.

Predicto I think that gas has risen on a percentage basis faster than most other consumer goods and now consume a much larger portion of the consumer dollar than ever before. Of course that is all figured in with the increase in taxes also applied to gas.

[Hubbs]

I can attest that as a member of the National Kitchen and Bath Association we discussed the possible recession, surcharges, material cost instability due to gas prices prior to the Real Estate bubble even reaching the peak. NKBA runs the K/BIS and has 40,k members, so maybe the economist, 'mist' that one.

I don't think you really get:

1) The difference between claiming that the recession "started" with oil prices pushing up housing prices, implying that oil prices were a primary factor in causing the housing bubble when that theory would only hold true if oil prices had caused an everything bubble, and merely stating that you, like everyone else, had to adjust to oil surging past $100/barrel, or

2) The complete irrelevance of when the bubble hit its "peak."

Materials starting rising and then the housing prices got out of control, was it in direct relation IDK, but it surely did not help and definately accelerated the increase in prices.

Materials, and oil, have been surging for the past year. What's happened with housing prices?

Granted speculation held and still holds a direct responsiblilty in the bubble, but your timeline on gas pricing as an effect is indeed wrong.

I didn't even present a timeline, so I don't really know what you're talking about.

It started with drywall, cement and wood prices going up, sorry you don't agree, but sadly it effected my business and this market quite heavily. I personally had conversations with the individuals provided on this link that would back up what I am saying. We dealt with the big manufactuers suchs as Kohler, GE, on and on.......So that is where I am drawing my experiences from. I think they matter concerning this topic.

Maybe next time the top economist can actually go out and talk to industry professionals.

http://nkba.org/about.aspx

Right, economists haven't talking with housing professionals after housing was the catalyst for the worst recession in 80 years.

[Bibby]

Screw it, just let the oil company drill. Stupid baby seals anyways.

[SWFLSkins]

I don't think you really get:

1) The difference between claiming that the recession "started" with oil prices pushing up housing prices, implying that oil prices were a primary factor in causing the housing bubble when that theory would only hold true if oil prices had caused an everything bubble, and merely stating that you, like everyone else, had to adjust to oil surging past $100/barrel, or

2) The complete irrelevance of when the bubble hit its "peak."

Materials, and oil, have been surging for the past year. What's happened with housing prices?

I didn't even present a timeline, so I don't really know what you're talking about.

Right, economists haven't talking with housing professionals after housing was the catalyst for the worst recession in 80 years.

Maybe the economists should not have relied on Wall St. before the recession in the first place. I could see that coming two years earlier, a 200k house is not a 600k house anyday of the week. When people are getting checks at closings and not writing them something was wrong. Maybe it was my experience as a Loan officer and the market I was in, but Hobbs I kid you not, I saw this coming and planned accordingly. Not that everyting is great, but I am still solvent in my home and business and for now that is good enough.

A couple of points here Hobbs, the past year as an indicator can be tricky because of housing starts being at an all-time low. I am talking about the fact that you stated at first that the housing bubble busting had happened before oil shot up and consumer goods adjusted accordingly. My point is a red hot RE market was further inflated by the rise in gas and the resulting rise in material costs, both the materials and the cost to transport them. In '06 distributors were hit with increases from both the maufactuer and fuel costs, those were passed on eventually to the cosumer. The proverbial straw....

Our dollar as you know does not have the purchasing power it once did, and probably never will again. And yes I blame part of that on the Oil industry and Wall street for the reasons as discussed. Could OPEC and other producing nations expand the capacity to maintain this growth that we have seen lately, I think they could. The world including China and India are not using the oil that we were just three years ago. The fly in the ointment in this is that if the supply was increased the world would just gobble it up as they did before.

Certainly the low interest rates that banks are getting could be passed on, but they continue on with ultra-conservative risk positions and that is not helping a sustained recovery as well.

[mojobo]

Predicto I think that gas has risen on a percentage basis faster than most other consumer goods and now consume a much larger portion of the consumer dollar than ever before. Of course that is all figured in with the increase in taxes also applied to gas.

It isn't. Everything is going up at a dramatic pace, we are trying to solve our economic problems by expanding the money supply (inflation) which causes prices to rise.

[HOF44]

I get that as the price of oil goes up it is passed on to the consumer, however when the price of oil goes up the Oil Industries profits soar. Should the profits not remain relatively level if they are just passing on their cost increases??

[deejaydana]

I get that as the price of oil goes up it is passed on to the consumer, however when the price of oil goes up the Oil Industries profits soar. Should the profits not remain relatively level if they are just passing on their cost increases??

There's a difference between 'profit' and 'profit margin.' Oil only has a 10% profit margin as a product (not especially high relative to many other industries since the cost of engineering, extraction, R&D, etc is somewhat daunting). In this scenario the Oil companies are seeing increased use/demand as more market economies come on-line.

[SWFLSkins]

There's a difference between 'profit' and 'profit margin.' Oil only has a 10% profit margin as a product (not especially high relative to many other industries since the cost of engineering, extraction, R&D, etc is somewhat daunting). In this scenario the Oil companies are seeing increased use as more market economies come on-line.

But 10% of Billions is more than 10% of Millions by far, obviously.

1. Exxon Mobil 6. General Motors

2. Wal-Mart Stores 7. Ford Motor

3. Chevron 8. AT&T

4. ConocoPhillips 9. Hewlett-Packard

5. General Electric 10. Valero Energy

4 out of the Forbes top 10 agree, that B is more than M all day.

From 2006....from a Dunn and Bradstreet subsid.

http://www.allbusiness.com/marketing/market-research/3924188-1.html

Date: Tuesday, October 3 2006

VIPbinders.com

Rising Gas Prices Benefited Total Consumer Packaged Goods Spending Levels but Altered Consumer Shopping Patterns

CHICAGO -- With an estimated $535 extra spent per household on gasoline this past year, coupled with rising CPG product prices, U.S. consumers have certainly felt their budgets strain. Yet, the consumer packaged goods (CPG) industry does not appear to have been negatively impacted. According to the latest Times & Trends report, "Gas Price Impact: How Spending at the Pump Affects Spending at the Register," from Information Resources, Inc. (IRI), the leading global provider of enterprise market solutions for the CPG, retail and healthcare industries, total CPG industry sales have benefited as consumers shifted spending from luxuries, such as dining out and entertainment. However, consumers have altered shopping patterns, decreasing their number of store visits to conserve gas.

"Across income segments and across channels, consumers significantly reduced shopping trips, accelerating a longer-term trend," said IRI Global Chief Marketing Officer Andrew Salzman. "The increases in gas prices drove new opportunity, such as strong growth potential among convenient meal solutions and home entertainment categories, and new challenges, including the need to maximize each store visit as consumers were in stores less often."

Even though gas prices are currently coming down, many analysts believe that trends are simply following the standard cyclical pattern and will rise again in the spring of 2007.

_____________________________and boy did they.

[Koolblue13]

Just imagine the wars that are going to ensue in the next 50 years over control of the remaining oil reserves. Saudi Arabia is going to need a bigger army.

You don't think ours is big enough?

[HOF44]

There's a difference between 'profit' and 'profit margin.' Oil only has a 10% profit margin as a product (not especially high relative to many other industries since the cost of engineering, extraction, R&D, etc is somewhat daunting). In this scenario the Oil companies are seeing increased use/demand as more market economies come on-line.

But the margins rise too during the times of increase. Also you have to include in your figure for margins oil company executive compensation. It's easy to fudge around with margins. But the fact is as prices increase profit increases. So more is going on than passing the increases to the consumers.

[HighOnHendrix]

You don't think ours is big enough?

Yeah, Saudi doesn't really need a big army b/c ours is so big and we're on their side.

[AsburySkinsFan]

You don't think ours is big enough?

Who is going to protect them from us?

---------- Post added December-28th-2010 at 04:37 PM ----------

Yeah maybe you would like to check it out, you might recognize some of the members from the items you use everyday installed in your home. If you are trying to minimalize the importance of the NKBA I guess there is no reaching you and you are still confused. Maybe you have watched HGTV before.

Woah, thin skin much.

BTW, HGTV is for girls.