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BRAVEONAWARPATH

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The Evil Genius

The Evil Genius

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Posted (edited)

He's going to be really good if he stays committed and continues to get the right veterans coaching him. Watched every game he played in (married to a Dubs fan and they're the local team here). 

 

I get the desire for another vet scorer from the Dubs but I think it's a nearsided mistake for them to trade Wiseman. And tbh, I'm not sure how much of the story is even real. 

Edited by The Evil Genius
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Hersh

Hersh

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I've brought this possibility up before. The Wiz would be crazy not to immediately trade Beal for Wiseman, Wiggins and their two first round picks. Conversely, GS management would be really ****ing dumb to make this trade. 

 

I'd take a starting lineup of Curry, Klay, Wiggins, Green and Wiseman and a bench with two lottery picks, Jordan Poole, Looney, Paschall and a mid-level exception player. 

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GOSKINS_08

GOSKINS_08

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I love Beal and want him to stay, but if they’re offering Wiseman Wiggins and 2 lottery picks and we feel like Beal isn’t all in then do it. Unless Beal is telling you he’ll re-sign here then you have to assume he’ll be gone and that’s a hell of a start for a rebuild. Plus what you’d get for Westbrook on top on that because you’d have to assume he would be dealt if Beal was.

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Ball Security

Ball Security

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2 minutes ago, GOSKINS_08 said:

I love Beal and want him to stay, but if they’re offering Wiseman Wiggins and 2 lottery picks and we feel like Beal isn’t all in then do it. Unless Beal is telling you he’ll re-sign here then you have to assume he’ll be gone and that’s a hell of a start for a rebuild. Plus what you’d get for Westbrook on top on that because you’d have to assume he would be dealt if Beal was.

There are a lot of good options if you have 7,14,15.  You can go for a high ceiling/low floor guy because you have numbers if you strike out on him.  There are a number of intriguing twos in the draft.  A guy like Kuminga could possibly slip to seven.

 

I saw a Westbrook for Schroeder, Kuzma, and Horton-Tucker.  I don’t really like that.  I’d keep Westbrook and then look to move him at the deadline if that’s the type of deal currently available.

 

You could end up with something like

Westbrook, Giddey

Keon Johnson, Deni

Wiggins, Bertans

Rui, Jaylen Johnson

Wiseman, Gafford, Bryant

 

 

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Ball Security

Ball Security

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Saw a GS Fansided piece that had more than the 7, 14, Wiggins, and Wiseman trade offer.  It had firsts in 23 and 25.  
 

If Beal requests a trade and/or indicates he won’t extend,  I’d be happy with Wiseman, 7, and 14.  Don’t really care about Wiggins, but assume he’s needed for salary.  What other teams may be in on Beal that could offer more?

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Nerm

Nerm

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I'm just starting to get back into NBA stuff since the pandemic, so I don't know much about the strengths/weaknesses of various players except what I have seen spouted by various people on reddit.  I'm a casual Lakers fan, so I follow speculation about what players they might be interested in more than other teams.  

 

I was wondering what people more familiar with Westbrook's recent play think about how he would fit on the Lakers if he did end up there.  I have seen a lot of hot takes from reddit that act like any team with Westbrook has no chance of winning a championship, but there seems to be no nuance in opinions on the guy (or almost any topic discussing the NBA) when it comes to reddit.  

 

I'm thinking the Lakers need another player that can score, and hopefully keep the team good while allowing Lebron to play fewer minutes during the regular season next year.  Any thoughts about how Westbrook would fit with the Lakers vs other guys like Lowry or DeRozan that have been rumored to be interested in the Lakers.

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Mooka

Mooka

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19 minutes ago, Nerm said:

I was wondering what people more familiar with Westbrook's recent play think about how he would fit on the Lakers if he did end up there. 

 

The intention is clear, if you put Westbrook at the 1 its a ridiculously big and physical lineup in LA. Other teams won't be able to matchup. 

 

Other then that, Westbrook is limited offensively these days. He doesn't have a jumper, is suspect from 3 and had an abysmal year from the FT line. His 100% go motor creates havoc in transition for opposing defenses but also creates some really boneheaded, unforced turnovers. His game is 100% more hustle then you. 

 

Russ gonna Russ is the best explanation. Off the court he might be a positive. He's all about the game and putting in the hard work. Lebron seems to like him and his game. 

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Going Commando

Going Commando

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On 7/23/2021 at 7:24 PM, Hersh said:

I've brought this possibility up before. The Wiz would be crazy not to immediately trade Beal for Wiseman, Wiggins and their two first round picks. Conversely, GS management would be really ****ing dumb to make this trade. 

 

I'd take a starting lineup of Curry, Klay, Wiggins, Green and Wiseman and a bench with two lottery picks, Jordan Poole, Looney, Paschall and a mid-level exception player. 

 

Nah man, it's a no brainer for GS.  They have like a two or three year window of title competition left with Curry as a dominant player.  Wiseman doesn't fit in that window at all and those other mid and late lotto picks aren't that valuable.  Beal is an All NBA 2 who fully replaces Klay Thompson's offense.  They're beyond capped out after some stupid cap allocations and this trade lets them exchange a ton of bad money for great money. And if they get Beal they've now got a far better and more immediate transition plan for when Curry declines, especially if Thompson never makes it back from injury.

 

I just looked at Wiseman's numbers for the season and he apparently sucked. He had a negative VORP, a 100 Ortg against a 109 Drtg, a 13 PER, and less than one win share.  That is god awful for a modern big, even a rookie, but especially for one drafted 2nd overall.  Guys picked that high need to show something year one, even in limited minutes.  Ayton and Embiid were nowhere near that bad despite playing for awful teams.  If Wiseman had a future like theirs, then he should have been better.  He's the centerpiece of the trade and he's closer to a bust than a future foundation piece judging by his rookie numbers.  Then when you factor in that Wiggins is a complete lemon with two more 30 million dollar seasons on his deal, then this trade is sketchy for the Wizards.  They're swapping an All NBA guard in his prime for a bunch of dodgy prospects and an awful contract, and potentially setting up another super team in Golden State for their trouble.

 

My instinct is that it's not a good enough plan for rebuilding for losing Beal.  Golden State does not have attractive enough trade ammo, and they have to unload a turd of a contract in Wiggins for any big deal and that adds quite a bit of negative value to a trade.

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Hersh

Hersh

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Why does Beal need to replace Thompson’s offense if he’s back? So Beal replace Wiggins and GS is worse defensively and Beal doesn’t get nearly the number of shots he took the last two seasons. Plus, when Curry declines you don’t want to transition the offense to a guy that will already be 30+.
 

 Also, why would anyone judge Wise based on looking at numbers? Dude missed all of an abbreviated training camp then had a torn meniscus cut his season. 
 

GS doesn’t need Beal to win a title. 

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Going Commando

Going Commando

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Posted
3 hours ago, Hersh said:

Why does Beal need to replace Thompson’s offense if he’s back? So Beal replace Wiggins and GS is worse defensively and Beal doesn’t get nearly the number of shots he took the last two seasons. Plus, when Curry declines you don’t want to transition the offense to a guy that will already be 30+.
 

 Also, why would anyone judge Wise based on looking at numbers? Dude missed all of an abbreviated training camp then had a torn meniscus cut his season. 
 

GS doesn’t need Beal to win a title. 

 

Klay Thompson is coming off a torn ACL and torn Achilles and hasn't played in two years.  He might be a shell of the player he used to be.  If you replace Wiggins with Beal, you have massively upgraded the team.  You've gone from a replacement level wing making max money to one of the best scorers in the league and a top three player at his position.  Also Beal is five years younger than Curry.  That is significant.  He's in his prime ow and GS has zero time left to wait on a prospect and still contend with Curry/Green/whatever is left of Klay's career.  But he is also still young enough to carry the load for Curry when he has to miss stretches or gets load manages plus give them a bunch of seasons of high level play in a post Curry future.  Again, this deal would be a no brainer for them, which is why I suspect their organization is the one who floated the hypothetical out to the media.

 

What else is there really to judge Wiseman off of than that rookie season?  His recruitment hype?  That is his entire resume.  I can't really think of any other bugs who had such poor numbers as a rookie who then became a star.  And he's got to be the centerpiece of the rebuilding effort because those other two picks aren't that valuable.  Seven is choosing from a massive third tier of players where there isn't much difference between the guy who will go seventh and the guy who goes 15th.  The absolute cream of this class is the top four, and then five and six will be Barnes and Kuminga and that's the end of the good bets.  Wiseman and Josh Giddey and Cory Kispert are just not promising enough of a foundation for rebuilding to get us to accept that offer for Beal, especially when you add the negative value of Wiggins's contract to the deal.  We'd be way better off trying to trade directly with the teams in the top four.  That's how we get a foundation prospect in return.

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Ball Security

Ball Security

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58 minutes ago, stevemcqueen1 said:

 

Klay Thompson is coming off a torn ACL and torn Achilles and hasn't played in two years.  He might be a shell of the player he used to be.  If you replace Wiggins with Beal, you have massively upgraded the team.  You've gone from a replacement level wing making max money to one of the best scorers in the league and a top three player at his position.  Also Beal is five years younger than Curry.  That is significant.  He's in his prime ow and GS has zero time left to wait on a prospect and still contend with Curry/Green/whatever is left of Klay's career.  But he is also still young enough to carry the load for Curry when he has to miss stretches or gets load manages plus give them a bunch of seasons of high level play in a post Curry future.  Again, this deal would be a no brainer for them, which is why I suspect their organization is the one who floated the hypothetical out to the media.

 

What else is there really to judge Wiseman off of than that rookie season?  His recruitment hype?  That is his entire resume.  I can't really think of any other bugs who had such poor numbers as a rookie who then became a star.  And he's got to be the centerpiece of the rebuilding effort because those other two picks aren't that valuable.  Seven is choosing from a massive third tier of players where there isn't much difference between the guy who will go seventh and the guy who goes 15th.  The absolute cream of this class is the top four, and then five and six will be Barnes and Kuminga and that's the end of the good bets.  Wiseman and Josh Giddey and Cory Kispert are just not promising enough of a foundation for rebuilding to get us to accept that offer for Beal, especially when you add the negative value of Wiggins's contract to the deal.  We'd be way better off trying to trade directly with the teams in the top four.  That's how we get a foundation prospect in return.

Why would Beal want to stay in Detroit, Houston, Cleveland, or Toronto?  He’d opt out after the 21-22 season.  Why would those teams give up a top 4 pick for a one year rental?

 

What other team is going to give a better package?  
 

Also, I’m not well versed on advanced basketball stats.  Wiggins’ VORP (basketball-reference) was 0.8.  The glossary says replacement level is -2.0.  Looking to learn, but doesn’t that indicate that he’s above replacement level by a decent amount?

 

Additional edit:  Wiseman’s VORP  was -0.7.  A 19 year old Giannis was -0.2.  Definitely not saying that Wiseman will be the face of the NBA, but I definitely wouldn’t write him off after an injury plagued 19 year old season.

Edited by Ball Security
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Going Commando

Going Commando

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14 minutes ago, Ball Security said:

Why would Beal want to stay in Detroit, Houston, Cleveland, or Toronto?  He’d opt out after the 21-22 season.  Why would those teams give up a top 4 pick for a one year rental?

 

What other team is going to give a better package?  
 

Also, I’m not well versed on advanced basketball stats.  His VORP (basketball-reference) was 0.8.  The glossary says replacement level is -2.0.  Looking to learn, but doesn’t that indicate that he’s above replacement level be a decent amount?

 

I don't think you guys are recognizing that Beal is the most valuable trade asset likely to be available this summer.  He's three years younger than Lillard and the top options on the FA market after Kawhi Leonard are Danny Green and DeMar DeRozan.  Beal is the ticket for any vet team looking to improve to contention.  Not only that, he's never forced our hand by publicly requesting a trade.  This is our shot to leverage temporarily having the most valuable trade asset in the league into a solid foundation for a rebuild.  Any trade that doesn't accomplish that is a failure, and I don't think that Golden State trade accomplishes that.  Not without hitting a home run at seven, and that's unlikely in a four player class.

 

Toronto at four is the deal that makes sense to me, for both sides.  That's a vet team with a championship caliber coach.  Beal plugs and plays into a core of VanVleet, Anunoby, and Siakam and becomes the lead scorer they lost when Kawhi left.  They've been aggressive in making trades before, I definitely don't think they'd blink at the potential of only having Beal for a year or two.  And they have a lot of non-guaranteed money so they could open up cap space and basically salary match a trade for Beal with just Rodney Hood or something like that.  So the Wizards can effectively make a Beal for #4 swap without taking on a ton of bad money.  We can get our cap in order, especially by unloading Westbrook too.  Probably find a buyer for Bertans as well.  Then we can start leveraging that cap space to make unbalanced deals for long term assets and essentially begin our rebuild this summer instead of having to wait two more years.  At #4 we take whoever is leftover of Suggs, Green, or Mobley.  Hopefully Suggs.  Or if we really have to have our pick of those guys, Houston has put their pick on the table and I doubt it would take much more than 15 to swap.

 

That's the kind of deal we need to be searching for.  Not collecting a bunch of long shot assets and bailing Golden State out of the bad luck and bad decision-making they've had since their dynasty collapsed.  Unless Beal publicly tries to force his way to a specific destination, there will be better offers for Beal than that GS deal.

 

As far as VORP goes, it's another way of demonstrating if your contributions are a net positive or negative for the team.  Wiggins has a career VORP of just 1.  That's pretty terrible for a 7 year vet, especially for a former #1 overall pick making max money.  VORP is kind of like what WAR is to baseball.  You can multiply the total by like 2.7 IIRC to get a wins above replacement level figure, which means Wiggins has been good for about 2.7 wins above a replacement level player in his entire career to date.  That's really bad given how much was spent on him in terms of draft value and contract money.

 

Wiseman's -.7 VORP for his rookie season is really unpromising.  So is his 13 PER for a big man who is doing virtually nothing more than rebounding and taking assisted shots around the rim.  He should be cleaning up in PER at the very least.  His efficiency numbers are in the territory of the wings and lead guards who struggled to adjust to the NBA early on.  The rosiest comparable outcome for Wiseman that I can think is something like Julius Randle's career arc.  But they're different players.  Randle had a face up game coming into the NBA and he developed a three ball.  I'm not sure about projecting that for Wiseman.  Banking the rebuild on him is too big a leap of faith to me, especially since it's not like Golden State has had problems developing home grown talent.  Evan Mobley is a better prospect than him by a comfortable margin in an apples to apples comparison, and Green and Suggs seem like way better prospects too.

 

We need to either get one of those three in exchange for Beal, or we need to get a mountain of future picks with the upside of being high lottery selections.

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PeterMP

PeterMP

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You do the GS trade not because you are trying to win with Wiggins (and you care about his VORP/WS/etc) but because with his contract, he's still a negative asset and that allows you to accumulate more positive assets.

 

Trading Beal straight up for a good first round pick isn't likely to result in a championship team unless you get extremely lucky with a pick.  You've still got too many bad contracts and not enough assets to likely turn that into a championship team.

 

Just in terms of a timeline, even if you think Wiseman is going to be a good player, it would make sense to flip him for an asset further down the line.  It might make sense to play him this year, make him the focus (which would be hard to do with Wiggins and Westbrook), and flip him at the trade deadline or at the end of the next season.  But Wiseman would at least get you the 5th or 6th pick in this draft.  If you don't like him, you could flip him pretty immediately.

 

Also, Wiggins was badly miscast as a pick and roll ball handler for most of his career in MN.  In the right spot, he's a pretty good player.   His career VORP isn't a very useful metric to how good he is.   He's also only got two years left on his contract.  If he can continue to do what he did in GS, next year he might actually be worth something.  Now he's a negative asset, but next year he might be a positive asset.  And given where the Wizards are, there's no harm in carrying him a year to see what happens.

 

 

Edited by PeterMP
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