The Official Washington Basketball Thread: Wizards, Mystics etc

[Going Commando]

4 hours ago, StillUnknown said:

Wall touched on a little bit of everything in this one, definitely worth a listen. 

 

Thanks for sharing.  John is awesome.  We have got to get a team around him so he can win something before he's done.

[Destino]

2 hours ago, stevemcqueen1 said:

 

Thanks for sharing.  John is awesome.  We have got to get a team around him so he can win something before he's done.

The tricky question for a new GM is, what if Wall is no longer an allstar caliber player?   He’s played in just 73 games the past two seasons and he’s likely to miss most, or all, of next season.  How many players miss that much time and come back as dominant stars?  How likely is it that he comes back and avoids another major inurjy?

 

I don’t think the next GM can afford to think in terms of building around Wall.  

[Going Commando]

5 hours ago, Destino said:

The tricky question for a new GM is, what if Wall is no longer an allstar caliber player?   He’s played in just 73 games the past two seasons and he’s likely to miss most, or all, of next season.  How many players miss that much time and come back as dominant stars?  How likely is it that he comes back and avoids another major inurjy?

 

I don’t think the next GM can afford to think in terms of building around Wall.  

 

There is no decision to be made with Wall any more.  He isn't tradeable unless he comes back healthy and plays like an All Star again,

 

1 - That's not likely

2 - But if it happened, then would we still want to trade him?

 

For better or worse, John's place on the team is secure.  Beal is the one we have to make hard decisions about.  And I think the answer with him is, listen to offers, take one of it's really good, let him hit free agency if we don't get anything worthwhile.  And I would define good by getting back a piece that could yield another All Star, such as a highly regarded young player needing a scenery change to get to an AS level (like Oladipo) or a top five-ish pick.

[Hersh]

You cannot let Beal hit free agency if he's not signing an extension. That would be as bad as anything EG did. If Wall could ever be traded in a scenario where the team would take back a shorter contract, you do it immediately. His contract is an anchor. 

[StillUnknown]

10 hours ago, stevemcqueen1 said:

 

Thanks for sharing.  John is awesome.  We have got to get a team around him so he can win something before he's done.

 

On the last wizards after dark podcast, fred katz and michael lee both spoke on Wall's basketball IQ. Lee in particular spoke about the the extreme disconnect between Wall's ability to break down plays and situations versus how he actually plays in game. When you hear Wall speak on the game, he has damn near has total recall. He knows every player tendencies and where they should be on the court.

 

I'm not sure how that divide is bridged. Lee referenced that its almost like Wall knows what play he should make, but has a little devil on his shoulder telling him otherwise.

Edited April 12, 2019 by StillUnknown

[Renegade7]

27 minutes ago, StillUnknown said:

 

I'm not sure how that divide is bridged. Lee referenced that its almost like Wall knows what play he should make, but has a little devil on his shoulder telling him otherwise.

 

That little devil is his athletic ability to straight blow past people whenever he wants.  People are expecting him to be a worse player when he comes back, but him not being able to rely on that to bail him out could make him a better one.  Ive been saying for years his passing ability has nothing to do with his speed.

[Warhead36]

Beal is likely going to make All NBA this offseason which means he'll be eligible for a supermax. Hard to justify having two supermax players on your team that aren't on that Durant/Curry/Harden etc. level.

[Renegade7]

It really depends on if the new GM can do what last one didn't, surround those two with enough talent and coaching to win.  I'm still optimistic on Wall being a beast distributor, we still haven't seen the best from Beal to say he's not worth keeping versus looking for someone else's star.  Maybe the two do cost a bit, but wasting money around them and inept coaching is whats really kept us from getting past 2nd round.

Edited April 12, 2019 by Renegade7

[Going Commando]

Might as well superman Beal if he'll sign.  The only way we get better now is via drafting and trades.  I don't see us being able to lure Anthony Davis in FA 

[Hersh]

Cannot supermax Beal. Trade him this offseason and tank next year. Gotta figure at least two firsts for Beal including a high lottery pick. That would give the team a minimum of four firsts with three high lottery picks in the next two seasons including a potential top-3 next draft. 

Go into 2020 off season with lots of cap space to go along with youth surrounding Wall. You could add a max player with no worries of resigning any of the recent draft picks cause Wall will come off the books by the time they’d need to be extended. 

 

 

[Renegade7]

8 minutes ago, stevemcqueen1 said:

Might as well superman Beal if he'll sign.  The only way we get better now is via drafting and trades.  I don't see us being able to lure Anthony Davis in FA 

 

Maybe that's a good thing. 

 

Much as I want to talk about KD2DC again, getting rid of Porters contract opens up for bringing back Bryant and Sato.  I don't want to lose Jeff Green, he's awesome.

 

Need another year to get Ian contract off the books to get serious about trying to lure a third max player, imo.

[Destino]

18 minutes ago, Hersh said:

Cannot supermax Beal. Trade him this offseason and tank next year. Gotta figure at least two firsts for Beal including a high lottery pick. That would give the team a minimum of four firsts with three high lottery picks in the next two seasons including a potential top-3 next draft. 

Go into 2020 off season with lots of cap space to go along with youth surrounding Wall. You could add a max player with no worries of resigning any of the recent draft picks cause Wall will come off the books by the time they’d need to be extended.

A lottery pick isn't worth Beal.  A top three pick would be, but what are you going to do with an extra 10th overall pick or 8th?  It's unlikely either produces are legit allstar.  Teams that trade for Beal aren't likely to be so bad after the trade that they're bottom three.  Plus most NBA teams trade picks with at least some protections. 

 

My point is Beal isn't turning into a draft pick young star unless the team gets extremely lucky in the draft. 

 

I'm not at all in favor of trading young stars for possibilities.  As we've seen this season the team can tanks with Beal.  There's no need to trade him unless he doesn't want to resign.  I do agree that having to supermax him would be a problem.  If the only way to trade him is a supermax deal, then he has to be traded.  We can't have two supermax deals tied up with two players that aren't superstars. 

[Hersh]

6 minutes ago, Destino said:

A lottery pick isn't worth Beal.  A top three pick would be, but what are you going to do with an extra 10th overall pick or 8th?  It's unlikely either produces are legit allstar.  Teams that trade for Beal aren't likely to be so bad after the trade that they're bottom three.  Plus most NBA teams trade picks with at least some protections. 

 

My point is Beal isn't turning into a draft pick young star unless the team gets extremely lucky in the draft. 

 

I'm not at all in favor of trading young stars for possibilities.  As we've seen this season the team can tanks with Beal.  There's no need to trade him unless he doesn't want to resign.  I do agree that having to supermax him would be a problem.  If the only way to trade him is a supermax deal, then he has to be traded.  We can't have two supermax deals tied up with two players that aren't superstars. 

 

If Beal is eligible for a super max, he’s not signing for less. 

Not sure you saw but I said trading him for a couple lottery picks including one HIGH lottery pick. I could amend that to a high lottery pick and a young player. Beal is worth a lot and anyone losing out on AD would almost definitely make a play for Beal. I’d talk with the Suns for one. I’d listen to the Lakers after they don’t get AD and to the Celtics if they don’t land AD among others. 

 

While I agree the lower picks in the lottery are tougher to turn into all-stars but the only way the Wiz win a championship is doing exactly that: Develop players regardless of draft pick. 

 

[abdcskins]

I just wanna say I enjoy reading what you guys have to say about contracts. I am completely unfamiliar with cap space specifics. Do all teams have the same budget? Like....does it depend on how much money the owner has in the bank? Like baseball, there is no salary cap, that's why the Yankees and Dodgers and Red Sox sign all the stars. Is it the same in NBA? Sorry if that is a really stupid question. 

[StillUnknown]

5 minutes ago, abdcskins said:

I just wanna say I enjoy reading what you guys have to say about contracts. I am completely unfamiliar with cap space specifics. Do all teams have the same budget? Like....does it depend on how much money the owner has in the bank? Like baseball, there is no salary cap, that's why the Yankees and Dodgers and Red Sox sign all the stars. Is it the same in NBA? Sorry if that is a really stupid question. 

 

there's a cap, you go over, you pay a luxury tax that gets exponentially worse

 

 

on a different note, ESPN's latest mock has us taking Culver at 6. Top 5 went Zion, Morant, Barret, Culver, & Hunter

[Going Commando]

1 hour ago, Renegade7 said:

Much as I want to talk about KD2DC again, getting rid of Porters contract opens up for bringing back Bryant and Sato.  I don't want to lose Jeff Green, he's awesome.

 

Bryant will be cheap and I can't see Sato commanding more than 10 million per.  There are rules that govern what they can sign for.

 

Jeff Green has absolutely got to go.  Guys like him are a dime a dozen.  We need to get serious about playing defense if we're ever going to get better, and that means never signing another ****ty ass defender at a forward or big man position, which definitely includes Green.

[StillUnknown]

2 minutes ago, stevemcqueen1 said:

 

Bryant will be cheap and I can't see Sato commanding more than 10 million per.  There are rules that govern what they can sign for.

 

Jeff Green has absolutely got to go.  Guys like him are a dime a dozen.  We need to get serious about playing defense if we're ever going to get better, and that means never signing another ****ty ass defender at a forward or big man position, which definitely includes Green.

 

Ariza too, unless he's back on a minimum deal, i don't see the value.

[Going Commando]

33 minutes ago, StillUnknown said:

on a different note, ESPN's latest mock has us taking Culver at 6. Top 5 went Zion, Morant, Barret, Culver, & Hunter 

 

You have Culver twice on your list, do you mean Garland at 4?

[Going Commando]

6 minutes ago, StillUnknown said:

Ariza too, unless he's back on a minimum deal, i don't see the value.

 

I'd like him back, and I'd be willing to go more than the minimum, but not for much more than that.  He can actually play defense, and he has leadership value.

[StillUnknown]

18 minutes ago, stevemcqueen1 said:

 

You have Culver twice on your list, do you mean Garland at 4?

 

Yep, thats who I meant

[Going Commando]

2 minutes ago, StillUnknown said:

 

Yep, thats who I meant

 

That's who I've been seeing a lot at #4.  It seems like the consensus is settling on him going there.

 

I'm really hoping that's how the draft works out, because I want to come away with either Culver or Hunter.

[Going Commando]

Wanted to break down Culver's strengths and weaknesses a little.  This article from the Ringer does a nice job covering them:  https://www.theringer.com/nba-draft/2019/4/5/18295786/jarret-culver-texas-tech-nba-draft

 

They also link to this article from thestepien, which does some interesting speculation on how tall Culver really is, and what his frame could look like after he finishes growing into it, in the way Curry and Giannis grew into theirs: https://www.thestepien.com/2018/12/03/draft-notes-thing-jarrett-culver/

 

I believe thestepien is right about Culver being significantly taller than his listing.  I've been thinking about it too, and when he played against UVA and stood next to Diakite, he was the same height.  I think Culver is actually 6'8.

 

But one of the things that didn't necessarily feel accurate about theringer's article was the breakdown of Texas Tech's system, and how it's motion-heavy with two primary ball handlers in Mooney and the Italian kid, due to Beard's time as an assistant for Bob Knight.  I just didn't see that kind of system at work during the tourney.  What I saw was a super PnR heavy system that incorporated a lot of iso on the perimeters and high post, and HUGE usage for Culver, with marginal ball handling coming from Mooney and almost none from the Italian kid.

 

They ran an NBA-style ball dominant system through Culver at the top of the key, and his usage rate (32.2%) supports this observation.  And during the UVA game, when he got stymied by Hunter, my biggest complaint was the lack of movement and variation in Texas Tech's offense.

 

I also disagree with theringer's assessment: "Culver is a crafty player who stays in attack mode without forcing shots."  That doesn't seem accurate at all.  I think it was pretty clear to everyone who watched that Culver chucked his ass off, and that playing hero ball was the primary cause of his lousy efficiency during the tourney.  His shot selection was such that it legitimately called his BBIQ into question.  And honestly, I think it's one of his dodgiest traits as a prospect, and something he will have to improve to be a good NBA player.

 

I'm watching his videos from this season, and I see some other weaknesses:

 

- He has a frequent and fairly pronounced hitch on the release of his jumper when he's faced up and shooting from deep, especially off the pull up with some coverage.  This looks like the primary cause of his poor percentage from deep.  It can be fixed.

 

- He doesn't have a first step.  He's a helter-skelter style ball handler who gets by people with good feet, a wide base, and a nice little toolkit of crosses and hesitation dribbles.  But a super long and smart ball defender in DeAndre Hunter was able to stay patient and mirror him/recover enough to force him into rare inefficiency from two point land.  He can still beat guys off the bounce, like you saw with that left hand drive and finish to make the go ahead basket in regulation in that UVA game.  But length and strength gets Culver.

 

- Speaking of strength, I think it's clear that he has an underdeveloped upper body, particularly compared to his lower body.  I think this is part of why his three ball is hitchy.  And I think it's why he had trouble finishing on DeAndre Hunter.  He needs to get stronger in his core and upper body to become an elite finisher around the basket.

 

From what I've seen, the strengths are:

 

- Smooth, confident handle.  Culver already looks like he'll be a strong secondary ball handling option for his NBA team.  Carrying the huge load he did in college really gave him a head start in his development for the NBA.  He can score off of isos and run PnRs and drive and kick offense already.  He creates his own offense, including from the post.  This is where he is way better than DeAndre Hunter as a prospect, and the main reason why he's probably got more NBA upside.

 

- High end shooting touch from 12 feet to the basket.  His under the basket finishing was elite at the college level.  And if develops a strong upper body, I think it can be elite in the NBA.  He's got really strong legs that help him power through contact to the basket, as well as back guards down with minimal effort on post ups.

 

- Speaking of leg strength, it really comes into play on his jumper.  His form from the waist down is picturesque, with consistently excellent elevation on the shot.  He'll be able to shoot over NBA wings.  The problem with the jumper has been in the release IMO.  If he cleans up his release, and gets good at firing off the catch, I think he can become a high end shooter.  The confidence and foundation are there.

 

- The defense is spectacular.  Watching him chase and mirror tiny guards with minimal exertion is breathtaking, especially when they're off the ball and trying to create space through motion.  He gets through and around screens so well.  He guarded every UVA ball handler, including spending a ton of time on Kihe Clark, and just gives up no separation.  Has the length to close out on shooters and cover rim runners on the PnR switch.  His defense will be an elite skill in the NBA.  Texas Tech runs a great defense, but even still, his 86.9 DRtg this season is just freaking awesome.  Especially when you consider the huge offense usage, the time he spends guarding the ball, and the high minutes he played per game this year.  Strong legs and elite length help you play great perimeter D.  I think he's a better defender than DeAndre Hunter because he's got better feet and is thus better at getting around screens.  Hunter's defense is elite in every respect except that he gets stuck to screeners and you have to switch with him.

 

I think Culver is the best defensive talent on the perimeter in this year's class, and that he has DPOY caliber upside.

 

In a relatively weak draft class, I think he's our best option.  I think he'd be a strong second or third ball handler, with the foundation to become a quality shooter off the catch.  We're starting from scratch in building a defense, and I think he'd be a really strong first piece for our foundation.  He's the kind of player that the Pacers would start with.  You get a good rim protector to pair with him, and you will have something real there.

[Renegade7]

3 hours ago, stevemcqueen1 said:

 

Jeff Green has absolutely got to go.  Guys like him are a dime a dozen.  We need to get serious about playing defense if we're ever going to get better, and that means never signing another ****ty ass defender at a forward or big man position, which definitely includes Green.

 

Perhaps I like him more as a person then you like him as a player.  That said, you mentioned Memphis, a team that goes no where because it's full of players that can defend but can't score.  Being out of position as our defense was is coaching, rather a mix of players with a coach that can actually put them in best position to be successful.  I've never seen us with a coach like that.

[Destino]

5 hours ago, Hersh said:

If Beal is eligible for a super max, he’s not signing for less. 

I agree.  I hate saying it, but I hope he's not eligible for it. 

 

5 hours ago, Hersh said:

Not sure you saw but I said trading him for a couple lottery picks including one HIGH lottery pick. I could amend that to a high lottery pick and a young player. Beal is worth a lot and anyone losing out on AD would almost definitely make a play for Beal. I’d talk with the Suns for one. I’d listen to the Lakers after they don’t get AD and to the Celtics if they don’t land AD among others. 

 

While I agree the lower picks in the lottery are tougher to turn into all-stars but the only way the Wiz win a championship is doing exactly that: Develop players regardless of draft pick.

I don't think that getting rid of young talent is the path forward in the NBA.  Unloading aging talent and bad contracts certainly is.  Beal is 25.  He's exactly the sort of player teams tank to get.  Between this year and the next the Wizards should have added two lottery picks to the roster and all terrible contracts other than Wall's will have expired.  There is no urgent need to trade Beal and I don't see how doing so directly makes the Wizards better.  It might somehow lead to a drafted star that could improve the Wizards team 4 or 5 years later.  It could also leave the team without a single star on the roster and frozen at the bottom of the standings.  Remember not all teams that suck turn into the 76ers.  The Wizards could end up like the Knicks, Cavs, Kings, or other perpetual bottom dwellers. 

 

I think the key for the Wizards is a credible front office.  It's not about tanking forever, that fails more often than it works.  Look at the Mavs... it wasn't tanking that made them suddenly interesting, it was trading for Porzingas that did it.  A player to join their young star.  What we need is a front office that can find players to play with our stars and avoid sinking the team with ****ty contracts.

 

If Beal does get a supermax or lets it be known that he will not resign, then tanking is the only option. 

 

[Hersh]

25 minutes ago, Destino said:

I agree.  I hate saying it, but I hope he's not eligible for it. 

 

I don't think that getting rid of young talent is the path forward in the NBA.  Unloading aging talent and bad contracts certainly is.  Beal is 25.  He's exactly the sort of player teams tank to get.  Between this year and the next the Wizards should have added two lottery picks to the roster and all terrible contracts other than Wall's will have expired.  There is no urgent need to trade Beal and I don't see how doing so directly makes the Wizards better.  It might somehow lead to a drafted star that could improve the Wizards team 4 or 5 years later.  It could also leave the team without a single star on the roster and frozen at the bottom of the standings.  Remember not all teams that suck turn into the 76ers.  The Wizards could end up like the Knicks, Cavs, Kings, or other perpetual bottom dwellers. 

 

I think the key for the Wizards is a credible front office.  It's not about tanking forever, that fails more often than it works.  Look at the Mavs... it wasn't tanking that made them suddenly interesting, it was trading for Porzingas that did it.  A player to join their young star.  What we need is a front office that can find players to play with our stars and avoid sinking the team with ****ty contracts.

 

If Beal does get a supermax or lets it be known that he will not resign, then tanking is the only option. 

 

 

I don't think we are that far apart and I agree that trading Beal isn't ideal, but we are talking about Walls contract being an anchor. The problem is that the Wizards aren't close to having a competent roster and can't afford to build one. After next season with Wall, Beal, Brown, the 2019 and 2020 picks, the Wizards are at $80 million. If the Wiz add a third max, they have zero money to spend. The following off-season, if Beal doesn't get a super max, with another first round pick, the Wizards are a least at $95 million with 6 players (Beal, Wall and 4 first round picks). At that point Wall is 32, Beal is 28.

 

At this point, the team needs to play the long game. The Wiz for example, I believe, have an extremely valuable asset in Parker which they can use to help another team create salary cap space this off-season in exchange for a pick. Call up Atlanta and see what they'd give up to trade Parker for Kent Bazemore right now and help them clear another $20 million in cap space. 

 

Anyway, this entire mess really illustrates how terrible EG was. It's crazy the team didn't try to move vets like Green and Ariza even to pick up 2nd round picks. 

 

Btw, you are right in that there is always a risk that the Wiz get stuck in rebuild mode. However, I'd rather give a new GM/front office the opportunity to build that way then keep being an middle of the road team that will hit the salary cap without being able to build a complete team while pinning hopes on a soon to be over 30 PG coming off an achilles injury.