The Official Washington Basketball Thread: Wizards, Mystics etc

[SuperBash]

They all have potential but some can produce right away, some can't. Like Drummond, Henson, Leonard and McAdoo imo. Davis/MKG/Robinson/Beal can all produce right away. Just pray we get a top 4 pick. We should get productive scoring right away from our top pick. Hopefully some outside shooters somewhere along the way. If so,Wall's assists can probably get up to 10 pg.

[Going Commando]

They all have potential but some can produce right away, some can't. Like Drummond, Henson, Leonard and McAdoo imo. Davis/MKG/Robinson/Beal can all produce right away. Just pray we get a top 4 pick. We should get productive scoring right away from our top pick. Hopefully some outside shooters somewhere along the way. If so,Wall's assists can probably get up to 10 pg.

Produce in what way though?

I don't see Davis's or Robinson's potential to produce on the offensive end initially being any better than McAdoo's. He has as many, if not more offensive skills as they do. MKG and Beal both have big holes in their offensive game too that are going to take time to fill in. Beal's shooting should translate fairly early but it's worth noting that Beal has not shot well from 3 point range in college this year, and it's not like he's going to be better spot shooter than even a pedestrian guy like Roger Mason right out of the gate. MKG will get his points if he gets high usage because he finds the rim, but opponents will force him to shoot from mid range early and that's not his game right now.

You can't really put too much stock in your ability to predict how a player is going to score and defend as a rookie, and it's not even that important in the grand scheme of things anyway because you're looking much farther down the line. Hell, for all we know the light bulb comes on for Drummond next season and he starts shoving fools around and looks like Amare Stoudemire Jr.

---------- Post added April-2nd-2012 at 02:43 PM ----------

The NBA draft is not about production it is about potential. This is why I've been saying all year that if the plan is to draft our way to success then the timeline for that plan 2015 as of today assuming there isn't another Vesely style set back. If the Wizards want to be good or better in 2013 and 2014 that will come from development of current players, trades, and FA acquisitions. You can't go into an NBA draft looking for instant production. If you're drafting bigs that timeline can be extended even further as they take even longer to generate results typically.

That is not to say we shouldn't look to draft guys we think can be primary scoring options. That is certainly what we need because IMO this team lacks exactly that. We have great hustle and effort guys like Booker, Seraphin, Mason, and Vesely that can give you some points with some assistance. We have no one that can take over a game on offense.

Next years outcome will be largely dependent on Wall improving his game. People like to say he needs a better team around him and I agree, but I wonder if he'd continue to be the best player in such a scenario. I'm not sure I'd say he's better than Nene right now to be honest. He has a ton of potential but in year three for a point guard the potential argument goes out the window. It's show me time for Wall next season because what he's done this year is nice but it's better suited for a Rondo role, supporting other star players, than it is for what Wizards fans hope he'll become.

If Rondo could shoot free throws, I think he'd be awful close to a star. Unfortunately he can't though, and it's such a big limitation for a PG that it seriously hurts the Celtics in the fourth.

I don't think Wall will ever be a superstar player in the way Derrick Rose, Russell Westbrook, Deron Williams, and Chris Paul are. All of those guys are amazing scorers that can easily put up 22+ PPG for a season if they are called to do so. John is just not that type of scorer to match them IMO, and I don't know if he ever will be, or even has the desire to be. In his heart, John is a true pass first PG. He truly doesn't care about his brand or about getting his numbers. He would rather get assists or pass to assist than score himself. The only way I see him getting those high PPG totals is if he plays off the ball more and has someone good facilitating for him.

That's not a huge knock on Wall because I think he can be a great offensive player in time that facilitates a potent offense, just like JKidd did for so many years. You can certainly win with a true passing PG running the show for everyone.

John also has the potential to become a freakishly good defender the likes of which the PG position has never really seen. Not sure there has been a PG that plays above the rim like him, Magic I guess. Hell, he could probably be an amazing defender today if his effort level and concentration defending in the half court was as high as it is when he defends in transition.

John also is a galvanizing and natural leader who is comfortable shouldering the burden of leadership on the court and in the locker room. People just follow him and trust him and are a little in awe of him. He can be that true quarterback that a championship contender can rally around. That's worth its weight in gold IMO, and is as important as scoring ability, if not more so. I think you find more gifted scorers around the NBA than guys who are comfortable with the responsibility of leadership.

When he gets things sorted out defensively, I think John is definitely going to be the type of PG you can build a championship roster with, and the starting PG is such a huge piece of the puzzle. He's not a go to scorer for a great team, but he's the leader and facilitator for such a team. How far we go from there depends on whether or not we get the right mix of pieces around him, including a really gifted scoring wing you're envisioning.

Edited April 2, 2012 by stevemcqueen1

[Destino]

Steve I agree with you about Rivers being potentially one of the most productive offensive players in the draft, at least initially. My only concern with him is that he can't seem to, or doesn't choose to, finish above the rim. He favors that scoop layup to finish off drives and in the NBA you've got to be able to finish strong.

He is easily the best ball handler in the draft and he can move in traffic which is impressive. I think a team will take him and try to turn him into a point guard. Stephen Curry with more quicks.

I don't think he'd fit with Wall. Wall already gets replaced as the point guard, essentially, by Crawford in the half court. Rivers is an even better creator and shooter. Add him and Wall will spend more time in the corner, running off screens, and otherwise functions without the ball. An odd situation for a guy that's supposed to be a superstar point guard.

Edited April 2, 2012 by Destino

[Going Commando]

I actually think playing off the ball from time to time is a good way to manufacture buckets for Wall and get him to the rim.

But I'd hardly say Jordan replaces him at point in the half court. He may run the offense from point from time to time, but when both are on the court, the vast majority of possessions start with Wall handling the ball at the top of the key. Most of the time when Jordan is running point, it's Mack and Mason at the other guard spot.

I think making Rivers a PG is a mistake and something a team would only do because of his size IMO. I understand putting a 6'4 190 pound guard at PG to minimize his size disadvantage on defense, but Rivers is a true SG IMO, and a team is always best served by putting a guy in his natural position and filling in the gaps later.

I don't think getting someone like Rivers hurts Wall's scoring ability. If anything, I think Rivers would improve Wall's scoring and hurt his assist / game numbers. Rivers can create for himself and dish to Wall, and just having him in the lineup would create space for Wall in the lane.

As for his finishing, I think it's an issue of strength and confidence. He's so skinny, I don't think he's got that comfort level going up and throwing it down in traffic yet. The ability is definitely there though. He's actually a pretty nasty and creative dunker.

Edited April 2, 2012 by stevemcqueen1

[Warhead36]

I want guys with potential, but I also want guys who've shown they can play. If a guy isn't able to live up to at least some of his potential and dominate in college, what makes you think he'll dominate in the pros at all? Going for potential is what gets guys like Marvin Williams drafted ahead of guys like Chris Paul.

[Destino]

Looking at the updated free agent list on ESPN and it's not very promising for the Wizards. The only star free agent is Deron Williams. The best restricted free agents are:

Eric Gordon

Nicolas Batum

Ryan Anderson

Roy Hibbert

I don't see them landing any of those. Hibbert isn't going anywhere. Batum and Anderson are going to be overpriced and I doubt either of them leave their teams. Gordon's mysterious knee injury makes him a risk and I'm sure he'll still draw big contracts.

[Going Commando]

Yeah, I think Gordon seems like the only one of those guys that might leave his team. I agree that his knee injury makes him a risk, and that he's likely to draw a sizable contract that we should hesitate to pay for an injured player.

I'd rather see him come back on a one year deal in NO and demonstrate his value with a really strong comeback season before hitting the open market.

---------- Post added April-2nd-2012 at 04:12 PM ----------

If the Knicks decided to blow the Amare + Carmelo + Lin + Chandler experiment up and trade Carmelo, and we could get him for Booker, Singleton/Seraphin, Vesely, Crawford, and our first round pick, would you all take that deal?

If we got the pick top three protected, I'd definitely consider it.

[RonArtest15]

Looking at the updated free agent list on ESPN and it's not very promising for the Wizards. The only star free agent is Deron Williams. The best restricted free agents are:

Eric Gordon

Nicolas Batum

Ryan Anderson

Roy Hibbert

I don't see them landing any of those. Hibbert isn't going anywhere. Batum and Anderson are going to be overpriced and I doubt either of them leave their teams. Gordon's mysterious knee injury makes him a risk and I'm sure he'll still draw big contracts.

Take it FWIW, but I was watching the Blazers/Wolves game last night, and one of the commentators (Blazers feed....but I'm not sure who said it) was adamant that Batum will not get 10 mil a year on his next contract.

He's a VERY interesting prospect, and if the Wizards want to bolster their 3 spot and are targeting Batum, they might have to overpay a bit just so the Blazers won't match.

I've pretty much resigned to the fact that we won't get the #1 overall pick in the draft. I'll give us the next best thing, which is the #2. Assuming that Thomas Robinson is our guy (and we don't take MKG here), how would a starting line-up of:

Nene

Robinson

Batum

?

Wall

fare?

My other idea (let's say we get the #3)

Nene

Ilyasova (offer him contract with the hopes he doesn't return to Turkey)

MKG

?

Wall

Option 3 (if we get the #4 pick):

Nene

Ilyasova

?

Beal

Wall

[StillUnknown]

Nene & Booker out again tonight.

[Going Commando]

Nene & Booker out again tonight.

This seems like something that might linger. Especially with Booker.

[Thinking Skins]

Did Buck just say that Singleton has excelled ON THE OFFENSIVE END? I love Singleton, but for his defense. His shot is still a liability and it needs to be a lot more consistent next year.

[Going Commando]

RonArtest, I know Batum has a reputation for being a great on ball perimeter defender, but I'm not that familiar with his offensive game. Could you give us a run down of his offensive skillset?

I'm also not that familiar with Ilyasova outside of the crazy rebounding numbers and the little we saw in the Bucks game this year. Is it a situation where he's just putting up crazy numbers on a bad team or is there something there?

---------- Post added April-2nd-2012 at 07:11 PM ----------

Did Buck just say that Singleton has excelled ON THE OFFENSIVE END? I love Singleton, but for his defense. His shot is still a liability and it needs to be a lot more consistent next year.

He played well last game. I think he's growing more confident on the offensive end, which is good. In spot up situations, he's usually fine and you can count on him to hit open corner 3s. It's when he starts dribbling that his effectiveness really starts to drop. That said, he's been doing it more lately, and he's actually been making some buckets like this.

[StillUnknown]

This seems like something that might linger. Especially with Booker.

Apparently they both have Plantar Fasciitis (sp?), in addition to Nene's back problems.

The plantar fasciitis injury is one that tends to linger.

[No Excuses]

So plantar fascitis is driving the end of the season tank.

[G.A.C.O.L.B.]

Plantar fascitis is what lead Mark Price to only playing 7 games for us when we traded for him. So yeah, not good. Not end of the world, but not good.

[Samuels]

I coulda swore that James Harden is a RFA as well. We might be better off trading back a few teams have multiple first round picks.

The biggest hole on this team is a scoring 2 guard followed by a wing in my opinion. I can live with Nene, Booker, Seraphin with Vessely in spots.

On TRob we are gonna have to just disagree the red flags are there but athletism makes people over look them. I like him as a prospect but he has serious question marks in my eyes that would make me not take him in the top 3.

I just went thru the last 10 drafts I can't find a single case of a big top 10 pick developing late that became anything. You have guys who came on late like Sheldon Williams who was a glass cleaner and shot blocker, Thabeet, Udoh and a few others but all sucked in the NBA. In my opinion the star players at the NBA level have been the man on every level and from day 1.

[No Excuses]

Harden and Ibaka are RFA's in two years.

OKC will have to let one go. We might be able to swing a sign and trade for Harden. We will have the cap space and ammunition to get him here.

[hunterx]

Possible Wizard picks playing tonight? Davis? MKG? Robinson?

Are Davis and MKG better than advertised because they have each other to feed off of? Do they need another big man counterpart to excel in the NBA?

Robinson is intriguing to me because he is from DC.

[Destino]

Davis is really struggling offensively with Withey but making his presence felt on the boards and blocks. Robinson is going to have nightmares about Davis but he's picking it up and rebounding. MKG id quietly having a good game.

[nuposse87]

Robinson had a better 2nd half, the entire Kansas team doomed themselves by not finishing shots at the rim, ones that davis wasn't swatting away. Davis is the 2nd coming of a hybrid of camby and Duncan. Dude is unreal.

Also, T. Jones is going to drop in this draft, but he could be a shut down 3 in the NBA, he is a very physically imposing wing player.

Edited April 3, 2012 by nuposse87

[Destino]

The concern with Davis is that all questions about him centered around his offense and he got completely shut down by Withey. Completely. It wasn't that he was missing shots, he wasn't getting good shots, he was getting blocked, and he got no lob opportunities. If he was going to score he was going to have to create against a guy that he can't jump over. The result, he couldn't score at all. His lone field goal came off of a screen pop and shoot. The guy has ZERO shot creation in his game.

Bad news is Withey while a very good defender isn't nearly the monster waiting in the paint in the NBA. Good news... I doubt Davis is a center in the NBA. He'll be matched up with PF instead of being bodied in the paint by 7 footers and forced to fight them off. The kid is an absolute stud and the offense will come, especially when his body gets stronger.

With TRob what I love the most is his confidence. He gets blocked and blanketed and the next trip down he's got his hand up. He's fighting until its over and always wants the ball. Throw 4 guys on him and he'll throw his hand up ready and willing to take them all on again and again. You can't teach that. In the NCAA tourney teams slowed him but he just kept coming. Today 18 points 17 rebounds.

He is without question an NBA PF. He's got some range, can drive when he has to, and can finish around the basket... Plus his rebounding motor is stuck on full throttle. I wouldn't draft him ahead of Davis but I can see him going #2.

[21]

Take it FWIW, but I was watching the Blazers/Wolves game last night, and one of the commentators (Blazers feed....but I'm not sure who said it) was adamant that Batum will not get 10 mil a year on his next contract.

He's a VERY interesting prospect, and if the Wizards want to bolster their 3 spot and are targeting Batum, they might have to overpay a bit just so the Blazers won't match.

I've pretty much resigned to the fact that we won't get the #1 overall pick in the draft. I'll give us the next best thing, which is the #2. Assuming that Thomas Robinson is our guy (and we don't take MKG here), how would a starting line-up of:

Nene

Robinson

Batum

?

Wall

fare?

My other idea (let's say we get the #3)

Nene

Ilyasova (offer him contract with the hopes he doesn't return to Turkey)

MKG

?

Wall

Option 3 (if we get the #4 pick):

Nene

Ilyasova

?

Beal

Wall

Option 2 sounds good. MKG is a high motor guy that can def help with our inside game and defense. Ilyasova is a good shooter that can be a threat in and out. All we would need is a two guard and Jordan Crawford is actually stepping up. I just hope that we make the playoffs next year.

[Going Commando]

Davis is so athletically gifted that he can have a bad night and still play amazing defense and rebound and feel like the best player on the court. I like the Bill Russell comparisons they were talking about. It's just unbelievable how good he is at protecting the rim. And he does it without being all that powerful. Cat like quickness + amazing coordination & length. One of the best weakside help defenders to come along in ages. Whichever team gets him is going to receive an immediate bump in wins because of how thoroughly he protects the rim. His teams will always be hard to score on.

What impresses me about Kentucky is how versatile and unselfish everyone on the team is considering they are all a bunch of blue chip recruits looking to make it to the NBA. This was one of the greatest seasons any team has ever had. They really only played one sub par game all year.

I thought TRob showed the full range of his talents and weaknesses last night, and made a real case for going #2 above MKG. I'm not sure Kansas makes it to the sweet 16 without him. It was really special to see the top three players in the class just slugging it out in the NC game.

TRob's relentlessness is awesome. His hands are superb and he's a truly gifted rebounder, just cleaning up every board in his range. He's quick and explosive and strong and once he develops a go to post game, he can be a really potent offensive force. But you saw the bad on display too--getting his shot blocked by longer bigs, turnovers from sheer carelessness, lack of skill in splitting and working off double teams. I thought the play where he scooped in the rebound one handed in between Davis and TJones, then carelessly let Davis swat it out for Jones to make an easy bucket was a very Thomas Robinson like play. Amazingly athletic rebound in a sea of opposing jerseys--but loose play with the ball leads to the mistake that negates his play. He needs to get back to the fundamentals and protect the ball better.

[hunterx]

I don't want Davis at #1 or #2. I'd rather have Robinson and then MKG. Robinson fights. He is only 6'9" but he has a big frame. I still wonder if MKG is a biproduct of having Davis on his team.

[Going Commando]

I don't want Davis at #1 or #2. I'd rather have Robinson and then MKG. Robinson fights. He is only 6'9" but he has a big frame. I still wonder if MKG is a biproduct of having Davis on his team.

That's crazy talk. Davis is the clear cut #1 on every team's board. I love Robinson, but he's not as good as Davis is today, and doesn't have his NBA potential either. And you say you want MKG over Davis, but then immediately go on to question if his performance is the result of Davis's brilliance? Why no love for Davis then?

Davis is a generational talent and he really put it together on the court this season to make himself one of the stronger #1 candidates of the past decade. He's to defense what Kevin Durant was to offense--a true genius. The difference is that defense is what gets you championships in both college and the NBA. It's the reason why Oden carried his team farther in college than Durant did, and the reason why he was taken over Durant in the draft. And Oden wasn't nearly as consistent and nonstop as Davis is, he would run hot and cold and his conditioning just wasn't as good. Davis is springy and relentless and plays the game with the energy of a teenager but the savvy and discipline of a much older player. Davis already won one championship, and he is going to get his rings in the NBA.

We'd be so lucky if we won the lottery and got Davis, but the basketball gods will never be that kind to us. If we got Davis, I think we'd have the seeds in place for a championship caliber roster and just need another couple of fresh pieces to really start to make our run.

We'd have the pieces in place for a truly brilliant defensive front court between Seraphin, Davis, Singleton, and Vesely--the ability to defend both the paint and the perimeter. Then you've got Nene, one of the most efficient inside scoring bigs in the league, and he can pull the sled offensively, giving us a potent, balanced front court. If we decided to keep Booker, then he can rebound and cover the perimeter in addition to playing strong in the lane. He would be the most expendable front court player on the roster too, so we could try and deal him for a first round pick.

If we got the #1 pick, I'd try and trade back into the first for a backcourt or perimeter player. Take Davis, trade Booker and Crawford to try and get a lottery or mid first pick in order to select a guy like Austin Rivers or Quincy Miller.

Rivers is like a better version of Crawford. I don't know about potential personality differences & conflicts in making such a move--Crawford is clearly a humble, fun, low key teammate while Rivers is flashy and has the ****y body language of someone who knows exactly how good they are. But from a pure offensive skills perspective, Rivers is superior to Crawford in most areas. He's both more explosive and smoother, a much better ball handler with a tremendous assortment of dribble moves, hesitations, jab steps, and a truly nasty cross over. He's much better at picking his way through traffic to get to the rim and can just annihilate double teams. He gets to the free throw line. He's a similarly fearless shooter that thrives in clutch situations. He can pull up off the dribble and shoot or curl off a screen, catch the ball and shoot with equal proficiency. He's got unlimited range and you'll see him drain threes from five or six feet behind the college line like it's nothing. He finishes with either hand with these terrific reverse layups that generate so much space for him. He's got a beautiful set of runners and momentum jumpers that he pulls up and nails. And he's probably a slightly better passer, he really knows how to find his cutters and use the attention he receives when he gets into the lane in order to generate space and easy buckets for teammates. The one offensive skill I think Jordan definitely has the advantage over Rivers is that absurd turnaround fade.

If we got Davis and Rivers, we'd be getting the best offensive and defensive players in the class. I think that's the final pieces of a completely balanced contender. Amazing defense and rebounding from the power forwards. Strong positional defense and efficient interior scoring from the centers. All the bigs can run the floor and play up tempo, or slow down and lock down the paint in the half court. Good perimeter D and spot up long range shooting from Singleton at small forward (admittedly, a projection still). A fearless, alpha-type go to scorer in Rivers who can fill it up just about every which way. And of course, a transcendent type talent at PG with a true pass first mentality, the ability to get to the rim and the free throw line at will, and elite defensive potential. Plus nice backup PG play from Mack--an underrated component in any championship caliber mix.

We'd still only have one true SG and one true SF on the roster as long term pieces after that. For next season, I don't know about starting Rivers, it seems like it'd be good for him and his ego to come off the bench early, let him mature in his passing and shot discipline. And with Crawford traded, we'd need a short term starter that could quickly mesh with Wall. I don't know how you get that. Might be that we'd just have to keep and promote a guy like Roger Mason. I think we'd also need to find a pure shooter to play behind Singleton at SF. We're going to pick high in the second round. A dead eye wing like Kyle Witjer or Terrence Ross could be available there, and they would make sense to fill this role for us in the long term. After that, we'd be on our way.