2010 Record bad enough to the get franchise QB in 2011 draft???

[mistertim]

Ponder seems like a Shanahan type of Qb but he could possibly go #1-5 depending on how Jimbo get the Noles going this year

If Ponder continues to progress, he will be an elite pick in the 2011 draft, IMO. Last season he shredded the #1 ranked pass defense in the nation.

[Est.1974]

If you are Shanny you have to believe this is the closest you will get to the 1st pick while here so you take the shot now.

If he has QB at the top of his wanted list, I think you are correct.

[Perky72]

By the way, I'll throw out a radical idea for the sake of discussion. As said I think the QB position has gotten even more important to success in the NFL, easily at least twice as important as any other position.

So the scenario--pick Bradford or Clausen this year. Put them on the bench to learn, or start the second half of the season or something. Then let's say our record still sucks and we're in a high draft position next year. Let's assume we found gems for the O-line late in the draft this year, or get some in the '11 off-season, so it's not as pressing a need. The radical thing would be to draft another QB like Ponder or Locker, even if Bradford/Clausen are still being evaluated or even look potentially great.

The upside would be doubling the chances of having a real franchise QB over the next decade. The downside would be that pick not being used to fill another need, plus twice the salary for the length of a rookie contract for a single position. But again, I think QB is close to being that important. A one year, or one salary sacrifice to break a continued cycle of 2-4 year QB projects who never pan out might be worth it in the long run. Plus if both work out we could trade one for at least some value.

Or the NFL could eliminate some of the ridiculous protection rules that are making this the NQBFL...POP (National Quarterback Football League...Plus Other Positions)

[That Redskins Fan]

It really doesn't matter what we think, as has been said alread, "Shanahan will do what Shanahan wants to do". If he feels Clausen is going to be a star, we pick him at #4, if he feels Bradford is going to be a star, we trade up and get him at #1.

If he's very serious about getting a QB, I can't see him waiting until next season. We're worried we won't even get our guy and we're at #4, I doubt we'll be this low next season, even if only by a little. I just don't see how next season is going to be any better to get a QB in than the year we're at 4.

Who knows what Shanahan wants, at this point I can't tell if he's decided to get OL, QB, trade up, trade down, get a QB in the 2nd, take Tebow no matter what, or trade our picks away for guys from other teams. He's pretty good at not allowing leaks. I honestly believe the only guys that DO know what they want to do are Allen and Shanahan. Otherwise, I'm not sure how they keep Redskins Park so leak free, especially after we were a siv with Vinny there. Of course, his eyes were so big you could just read the thoughts on his brain if you were looking right into them.

that sums how i feel , i will admite wi ll not be happy with tebow but he will my support cause he will be a redskins and I beleive in shanny

[Ryman of the North]

Bradford is the closest thing to a franchise qb in this draft, and we wont get him.

why do you think shanny blew up the defence? we are tanking next year to get a better pick and that may actually be for the best, but I still dont like the 3-4 lol

[angel2]

I still think its best to draft a Left and Right Tackles this year. If Jason Campbell wins out in open competition, then so be it. I am curious to find out if having a better OL will help Jason.

[MrJL]

Please tell me you are either young and uniformed on the history of John Elway's career or you are just kidding. For the record John Elway nearly by himself carried those early Broncos teams. He got a team with bad WRs and a starting RB who totalled 789 yards to the Super Bowl in 1986. Of course they got there because of the infamous "Drive" engineered by Elway.

that's right, he carried them. Because they thought they could just stick any old players next to Elway.

I want a TEAM.

And my point is I want to WIN the Super Bowl. Losing the Super Bowl is worse than not being in it. So until we have a team that can win it I don't want the whole "carry the team on his back" thing that everyone seems to think is so great.

[dy44]

jason is not a franchise qb, he is a gibbs qb. if gibbs would have stayed the o line would have been fixed and jc would have been sack no more than 15 times last year. instead vinny was picking the players and we sucked. im not sure campbell is smart enough to run an nfl qb without a coach hand cuffing him witch shanny wont do. he will want a field general.

[street_lyte]

Did the Bengals win their division last year with a 10-6 record????

They couldn't have since they finished 4-11-1 the season before!!!!

In 2008 did the falcons make a Wild card berth with an 11-5 record????

They couldn't have cuz they were 4-12 the year before!!!!

Oh yeah...does anyone know what the Saint's record was in 2008? Uhhh, they were 7-9 folks!

My point, you ask.

4-12 last season puts us as close to the Super Bowl as anybody. Let's play the games and see if we can turn some of those 3 to 8 point losses into some wins and we'll see what happens...

That sounds nice and all...but you're forgetting one very important thing...

The Falcons drafted Matt Ryan.

The Bengals had Carson Palmer.

The Saints had Drew Brees.

We have this.

[Renegade7]

HP, EA, thanks for the history lesson, but that really wasn't neccesary. Nobody's saying Brunell and Ramsey weren't hotly contested debates, or that either didn't get their fair share of whopping from the fanbase here. What I'm saying (and this is really hijacking the original point of the thread) is there are a lot more people taking there utter disdain for the starting QB TOO FAR then ever before in my recent memory. There are a lot more people here changing the way these QB debates used to be. I'm trying to do a google search, too, to find some recent examples, but it ain't working for me right now (am I the only one always having trouble with extremeskins search? is it IE?).

I apologize if I didn't articulate that clearly earlier, but there are a lot more people on here going beyond calling out the QB (JC in this case), but going straight for the knees, eyes closed, with a rusty scaple and cutting other posters in the process. This isn't a JC apologist thread, it's a big picture thread.

Edit - Also, I'm not going to "just be cool" with whatever Shanny wants just because he knows more about football then I do. That's the same thing I did for Gibbs when he first got here, and I'm not doing that again. If I agree or disagree with something, I'm going to state my opinion on it, right or wrong; I'm man enough to admit to my mistakes as well as not mock ya'll and say "I told ya so". I'll support Shanny because I do believe he's great at what he does, but he's human just like me, and humans make mistakes. If my opinion on the matter truely meant absolutely nothing, I wouldn't be here. Hell, if our opinions on the matter truely are irrelevant, why does extremeskins even exist?

[JoeKnowsBest]

I will say this. Last year at this exact time of the season/year, everybody wanted to take a QB and dump Jason Campbell. I defended him and said he needed to be given another chance. Then if he didn't prove himself we had a chance at 2 great QBs in this years chance. Guess what... Jason Campbell disapointed greatly and made me look like a fool for defending him. (That might sound personal but it's really just an illustration of speech.) Every single game, pretty much all game long I would watch him drop back, hesitate, then run up and off to the side in the pocket and either get hit or throw the ball away. He just doesn't have the football smarts and quickness to be a Superbowl calibur QB in the NFL. Look how quick Brees and Peyton read the defense and get the ball out. It's like lightning. Now look at Jason Campbell. It's like mollasses. He doesn't know what he's doing.

Now you have a chance at an extremely smart and accurate QB with a quick release like Sam Bradford, you take it. And on top of that you get your starting left tackle at 37 because this is one of the deepest classes for OTs in recent memory.

Farther more, I do not see a QB in next years draft that is better than either Bradford or Clausen. I think Jake Locker is over rated before you start with "but there's...".

I think Campbell is mediocre at best, and not what we've been searching for. This is comming from someone who wanted to give him every chance in the world. He just hasn't lived up to it. He was really nothing more than a 2nd round draft grade taken in the middle of the 1st round. We reached on him, and I knew we did as soon as they took him. He needs to be far more decisive and confident and I have not seen any of that. Maybe he'd be a great fit for another NFL offense, but he hasn't fit in any of ours especially not the WCO. I don't think he really understands it all that well.

Oh and by the way, you can put me somewhere between category c and category a. I think we are in rebuilding mode. Evidence is in the fact that we cleared house with most of the long time veterans on the team. Too many names to list here. I also think that we have enough great talent on this roster that we are not a real 4-12 team if we play up to that talent. I completely agree that we should have around 4 more wins this season, being honest. Being hopeful would be a completely turnaround overnight success story. (The kind you only hear about from Parcells or Pittsburgh).

Also, one more thing I wanted to mention. You have to think LONG TERM SUCCESS. Not just this upcomming season. If you can land a franchise QB you will have a competitor for YEARS to come. If you don't have one, well you'll likely be right back in the same bad/mediocre season boat again sooner rather than later. If you got a consistantly good QB, you've usually got a consistantly good record. Granted it takes a total team effort, but even a mediocre team with a great QB has a fighting chance (See John Elway, Dan Marino, KC Joe Montanna et al). Just look each season throughout history to see that point backed up.

[JoeKnowsBest]

1 other point: There's still a chance that we won't even have a 2011 season due to a lockout. That probably also has complications on the draft. Plus if we were to get a QB in this years draft he would have much more time to be studied up in the playbook and be ready to become our field general.

[s0crates]

Let me just point out that the poll results are a bit skewed. Having two choices for "yes" and only one for "no" makes it look like a majority is saying "no" when that is in fact not the case.

Anyway, the argument that we need a high pick to acquire a franchise QB is pretty weak.

First of all, taking a quarterback with a high pick is not necessarily a good way to find a franchise quarterback. Anybody remember Tim Couch and Jamarcus Russell? What about (sorry to ask) Heath Shuler?

Second of all, it is in no way necessary to spend a high draft pick to find a franchise quarterback. The truth is a franchise quarterback can be found without drafting one in the first round, the second round, or even the third round. Think of guys like Kurt Warner, Tom Brady, and (sorry to say) Tony Romo sits to pee.

Frankly, the idea that we need to spend a high draft pick on a QB bothers me, especially when it is based on muddy thinking like this. What we really need is a stud LT, which is a truely rare breed.

[justice98]

I've thought this for a while, that there's this notion that they have to get a QB THIS year. If Campbell's good this year in Shanny's system, you don't need a QB. If he's bad, you'll be back in the draft again next year. But OL is a higher priority this year than QB, IMO.

And there's this notion that A) franchise QBs only come in the first round, that everybody thinks Clausen is a franchise QB, or C) there's only one or two in every draft.

[TGW21]

Why, is there not a "No, we have him now" answer! This is a leading poll!

[Darrell Green Fan]

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/E/ElwaJo00.htm

Take a look at his years up until '92 and tell me he was elite before then.

The game was totally different back then. Throwing for 20 tds in 1986 was a much bigger deal then than it was now. Aikman is an undisputed Hall of Famer but his numbers look similar to Elway pre '92. In fact by today's standards Aikman looks like JC.

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/A/AikmTr00.htm

If you honestly think that a poll of NFL execs in 1991 would say that Elway was nothing special than you are way off base.

[Perky72]

I've thought this for a while, that there's this notion that they have to get a QB THIS year. If Campbell's good this year in Shanny's system, you don't need a QB. If he's bad, you'll be back in the draft again next year. But OL is a higher priority this year than QB, IMO.

But how many consecutive years must we do this for the same QB? JoeKnowsBest made a great post explaining reasons for holding a similar position last year, that many others made as well--that 2009 would be JC's make or break year. But he failed to show improvement. This could go on another five years, while every other NFC East team kills us in large part because they have real franchise QBs.

Look at the Eagles, if McNabb is ditched or his performances continue to fall, and Kolb can't cut it, we'd be laughing at them and jumping for joy. Now try to view us through the Cowboys' or Giants' perspectives, they're probably praying we don't draft a Bradford or Clausen and keep on truckin' with JC. You think they're as worried about us drafting Okung than Bradford, for one example? No way, because they're not attached as much and can see our real weaknesses objectively.

And there's this notion that A) franchise QBs only come in the first round, that everybody thinks Clausen is a franchise QB, or C) there's only one or two in every draft.

Sure, but we've got to take a gamble in some draft soon on a franchise QB, or get one through free agency or trade. I'd love for JC to go crazy next year, if we don't draft another QB, and turn into a franchise QB. I just don't think it'll happen.

[MrJL]

But how many consecutive years must we do this for the same QB? JoeKnowsBest made a great post explaining reasons for holding a similar position last year, that many others made as well--that 2009 would be JC's make or break year. But he failed to show improvement. This could go on another five years, while every other NFC East team kills us in large part because they have real franchise QBs.

If we don't have a team around the QB who can play we'll never truly know if we've got the franchise QB.

[Wyvern]

To Renegade7:

Civility on the internet isn't what it should be. People don't feel constrained when typing within the anonymity of the Net. People -- especially in the heat of an argument --can say some hateful things about a topic, a performance, a performer, an organization, etc. Thank goodness we've got mods to help. I've even noted that many posters have also reverted to attacking the poster rather than the elements of the poster's message. Here too, I'm glad when the mods step in, especially when the personal attacks are beginning to spiral.

To this point --I read what seemed to be unintended implications in your earlier posts in this thread; I was glad to see you later clarifying that Campbell was not the only QB subject to a barrage of unrestrained 'criticisms.'

Perhaps it's also a stretch to be implicitly generalizing on peoples' motives for these types of criticisms. I'd like to offer up other possible contributing factors, that might have some play in the phenomena you've observed.

We should at least acknowledge the following observation of human nature: the longer a person's perceived problem lingers -- the shorter becomes their fuse for dealing with it and the greater their negative reaction to that perceived problem with each repeated exposure to that problem. (A good non-football example is someone's wife complaining about a screen door that needs to be repaired -- the longer that situation persists, eventually there will be a time when the issue and emotional reactions around that lingering problem will escalate well beyond any actual annoyance the door would rationally seem to cause.)

So, let's be mindful that Campbell has been the starter for a long time now (several coaches and offensive coordinators worth!) and those who were unhappy with him early on -- well, their patience has worn thin. I suspect had the Skins invested as much in Wuerfel and kept him as starting QB as they did with Campbell -- that too would have evoked a flood of harsh negative reactions from the ES membership.

Also let's not forget the contributing impact of those who actively support Campbell -- folks who start up post after post claiming/showing/'proving just how great Campbell really is and/or how fault lies elsewhere. Now this might be perceived by the pro-Campbell crowd as simply being a good fan by showing support for Jason, and engaging in positive flag-waving... But to those who don't think Campbell is a good QB, that's seen as a direct challenge, and essentially like 'red flag' to a bull. And during the ensuing debate -- things get heated and both sides ratchet up the flaming. And the longer this kind of discourse goes on, the greater the over-reaction.

My often repeated bottom line: Everyone has a right to NOT like a performance, a performer, or an organization that keeps bringing them these same old elements. We also have freedom of expression, but this freedom is tempered by the demand that we do so 'responsibly'. So, we need to be mindful of how others' opinions may differ, and if we debate the differences --be mindful of being civil as possible and focussing our challenges to the ideas being presented rather than launching personal attacks on whover was presenting those conflicting ideas.

It's never going to be perfect -- but perhaps by toning down or even muting the vitriole, we help create a better environment where someone might pick up something that starts them re-thinking their original concepts.

[Skinsfan4life83]

Jimmy Clausen is not a franchise QB, we can get Ponder in 2011 or Mallett if he improves.

I strongly disagree

[ChiefPowhatan17]

I think Bradford would be great, but besides him, I don't see any other QB's as a 1st round pick. Clausen will go in the first, but he would be a wasted pick for us. We need to make our 1st and 2nd round picks be guys who can start immediately. So we need to fill the holes. QB is a need, but not as big as OT. We need guys who can contribute now.

[Perky72]

If we don't have a team around the QB who can play we'll never truly know if we've got the franchise QB.

Good point, but I think we can tell some things about JC from this:

*Watching him play--even when he has good protection he makes critical read/passing errors

*He's had a wide range of line quality, and has remained (IMO) steadily non-Franchise in quality himself

He's also had a lot of different systems. If we couldn't tell anything about his real potential we wouldn't know if he was better than Manning, or worse than JaMarcus. But we can roughly gauge him. He's an average QB, and in today's league above-average to exceptional is extremely important to consistent contention.

The flip question is also true--how can we judge Rinehart and the rest of the O-line if they never have a good QB around them? But we can tell that our O-line sucks. And imo we can tell JC is not the future.

[Wyvern]

I couldn't find the best poll-response to the OP's question. Mainly, I don't believe Shanahan and company will keep starters in their places if the execution and W/L results are going badly, so we're not going 1-15.

This is not an endorsement (or condemnation) of any player. I just see our 2010 record reflecting very professional staff rebuilding a team with potential, but needing time and new talent that will fit their system better. I'd noted the 2010 schedule is not as easy as last year, but I think are players will do better because they will be better coached, better prepared, and more disciplined/focussed. And also because if they don't do better -- Shanahan & Co. will tab someone else who will.

So, we may start heading in the direction of another poor season -- but this team does have a lot of depth, talent, and professional coaching to prevent a complete collapse that would net us another top-five pick. No 1-15 season, and no 2011 franchise QB that automatically falls into our laps.

As for trading up, I think we'd be in a major bidding war if we tried for the services of Locker, Ponder, or whoever the draft gurus decide is the franchise QB of the 2011 draft. And if we've a middle of the pack first round slot (courtesy of our record that could be between 7-9 and 9-7) it would be extremely difficult to make get Locker. Seattle is going to pull out all the stops for a hometown hero and they're already very close to needing a QB. I suspect in 2011 Jacksonville may be ready for a change as well, so we'd have the same trouble getting Ponder. I don't just don't see a scenario like where Cutler slid to where Denver was able to trade up to get him.

So, that leaves option 3 --this year-- to find our franchise QB -- and that's no guarantee either. I see only one QB who I'd consider as franchise level (Bradford) and he's got some question-marks -- which if answered will probably result in him becoming a Ram. I don't think Clausen or Tebow would be a good fit, (and both may be reaches at #4) which that leaves McCoy or Lefevour in the running (definte reaches at #4.)

When our second round pick comes around it's not certain that Clausen, Tebow (well maybe?) or McCoy will be available. So do you use your second rounder and develop Tebow or Lefevour as 2-3 year projects? I might be willing to try McCoy if he's available with our second round pick -- but he's got question marks, which if answered well, only turn him into some kind of version of Jake Plummer.

IMO, this has to be a very challenging draft for Shanahan/Allen -- they can get a good player at #4, but perhaps not one of the ones they want. If the Skins wind up with one of the 'top-two' DTs then they might be able to work something out that nets a good QB candidate and some good O-line help. However, I doubt the QB would be 'franchise level.'

This all goes to show, even with the 4th pick, how difficult it is to get a shot at a high-probability 'franchise-level' QB. So Washington may need some luck to land one.

[Hail Gibbs]

Even though I don't think the Skins are going to be good next season, (7-9) is my guess, there is no way I see them with the #4 pick or higher. Still, I don't think they should take a QB just because of that. I think this is a weak QB class and think they should only take a QB if they are convinced that person is the best value at that spot.

[Sweet Sassy Molassy]

If we don't have a team around the QB who can play we'll never truly know if we've got the franchise QB.

I think you're selling short guy like CP, Santana, Cooley, Randle El, even Fred Davis, Devin Thomas and Malcolm Kelly by saying that. Jason's had a solid supporting cast for most of his seasons with the Skins, save for maybe this year where his oline was terrible, Cooley was injured and CP was not the CP we're used to.

We should at least acknowledge the following observation of human nature: the longer a person's perceived problem lingers -- the shorter becomes their fuse for dealing with it and the greater their negative reaction to that perceived problem with each repeated exposure to that problem. (A good non-football example is someone's wife complaining about a screen door that needs to be repaired -- the longer that situation persists, eventually there will be a time when the issue and emotional reactions around that lingering problem will escalate well beyond any actual annoyance the door would rationally seem to cause.)

I was coming back to this thread to respond to Renegade7's post, but you made my point for me. Very wall stated. Thanks! A couple other points I think we also need to consider is that this board has grown very fast in the past 5 years, and the accountability factor with the other QBs we've talked about.

In growth-aspect, when I signed up in 2004 I was the 7,539th member. Since then this board has grown to 90,000+ members, and if I'm not mistaken we hit the 10,000th member in '05, so that would mean that we gain 16,000+ members per year. There's always talk from the guys who were here pre-merger days about the quality of the board back then, the conversation was definitely more respectful and congenial in those days. With such rapid growth over the past few years we've seen more people who interacting in threads, many more voices attempting to be heard and with that we've had some people who tend to use more colorful language, perhaps to get more attention to their posts. I made a joke the other day to Enter Apotheosis saying whenever there's a good, well-thought out point in a thread it tends to get immediately overshadowed by the people hurling mud at each other. Which can sometimes drive away the posters who enjoy having meaningful, intelligent conversations on the board. I've just recently started posting more, but for a while I didn't bother posting much because the conversations went downhill too quickly, or my often verbose and (hopefully) intelligent posts would end up getting buried in the rubble of flamers, attention-whores and belligerent posters.

The other point is that, and I alluded to this in my last post, Jason has essentially gotten a free pass from many on the board. Anytime there has been an issue many blame other areas of the team and absolve Jason. Jason can't read a defense? Yes he can, his receivers just don't get open, OR Yes he can, but his line just doesn't give him enough protection, OR He's being handcuffed by the OC. Jason threw a pick? Yeah but the WR ran the wrong route. Jason missed a wide open receiver? No the WR gave up on the play too early. Jason overthrew a wide open Santana Moss? It's obvious that Santana's lost a step. He gets many excuses and free-passes, and I think after awhile it's worn on people patience (as Wyvern has suggested). Hell it's worn thin on me, and I have always supported the guy.

Good point, but I think we can tell some things about JC from this:

*Watching him play--even when he has good protection he makes critical read/passing errors

*He's had a wide range of line quality, and has remained (IMO) steadily non-Franchise in quality himself

He's also had a lot of different systems. If we couldn't tell anything about his real potential we wouldn't know if he was better than Manning, or worse than JaMarcus. But we can roughly gauge him. He's an average QB, and in today's league above-average to exceptional is extremely important to consistent contention.

The flip question is also true--how can we judge Rinehart and the rest of the O-line if they never have a good QB around them? But we can tell that our O-line sucks. And imo we can tell JC is not the future.

Exactly