Carlos Rogers: By the numbers

[elkabong82]

Like I have said before I think Rogers is one of the best cover 2 corners in the game. Definitely top 3. But as a cover corner he is just ok, if hes not getting safety help he gives a huge cushion allowing 4 and 5 yard gains(hints his 5.7 ypc avg). Top corners or elite corners don't do this, they man up and shut players down without safety help on most downs. So if you think we should pay him top CB money to play in a scheme that doesn't best fit his talents or let him play out this year and hit the market and possibly get nothing for him then you are dumb as hell. Oppenents stopped targeting Asomougha because he not only shuts the WR down from line of scrimmage but also because he will catch the ball when given the oppurtunity. Nobody's "hatin" so calm your happy *** down.

P.S. Why was he benched by one of the best secondary coaches in the league if he's so damn good then?

All our CBs usually have safety help, why do you think we kept ST and now Landry so deep? The YPC is indicative of the cushion Rogers allows, but if it wasn't allowed within the system Rogers wouldn't have been allowed to keep doing it, coaches don't allow players to keep lining up incorrectly. The playing off is part of the bend but don't break defense. While that D can be effective from an overall viewpoint, it doesn't create many turnovers. I would like to Carlos pressing more, but the system doesn't call for it. Now Zirn has said he wants a more agressive scheme from the D, so maybe we will be pressing more next season to try and jam the WRs for longer when we send a blitz.

If elite CBs don't give up 5.6 ypc averages like Carlos did, as you claim, then why did Asomougha finish with 5.8? Why did Springs, who presses a lot more than Carlos, end up with 6.3? In fact, going back over the original post, the top 10 CBs in terms of ypc allowed are listed, and Carlos' 5.6 is in the top 10, and only 1 other CB on there was targeted more than 70 times, while Carlos was at 92.

And yes, given the ramblings you are posting saying the stats are BS, when everything you are saying is being directly contradicted by those stats, you are hating, so I won't "calm my happy ass down" as you so poetically put it while violating forum rules by circumventing the profanity filter.

P.S. Rogers wasn't benched, he was stuck behind 2 CBs who'd start for almost every single team in the NFL. Springs was injured and not playing games, we snagged Hall for cheap. Springs came back healthy, so Rogers was moved to 3rd. Being stuck behind Shawn Springs and Deangelo Hall doesn't mean you are a bad player, it simply means you are stuck behind 2 other great CBs.

[Stew]

All our CBs usually have safety help, why do you think we kept ST and now Landry so deep? The YPC is indicative of the cushion Rogers allows, but if it wasn't allowed within the system Rogers wouldn't have been allowed to keep doing it, coaches don't allow players to keep lining up incorrectly. The playing off is part of the bend but don't break defense. While that D can be effective from an overall viewpoint, it doesn't create many turnovers. I would like to Carlos pressing more, but the system doesn't call for it. Now Zirn has said he wants a more agressive scheme from the D, so maybe we will be pressing more next season to try and jam the WRs for longer when we send a blitz.

If elite CBs don't give up 5.6 ypc averages like Carlos did, as you claim, then why did Asomougha finish with 5.8? Why did Springs, who presses a lot more than Carlos, end up with 6.3? In fact, going back over the original post, the top 10 CBs in terms of ypc allowed are listed, and Carlos' 5.6 is in the top 10, and only 1 other CB on there was targeted more than 70 times, while Carlos was at 92.

And yes, given the ramblings you are posting saying the stats are BS, when everything you are saying is being directly contradicted by those stats, you are hating, so I won't "calm my happy ass down" as you so poetically put it while violating forum rules by circumventing the profanity filter.

P.S. Rogers wasn't benched, he was stuck behind 2 CBs who'd start for almost every single team in the NFL. Springs was injured and not playing games, we snagged Hall for cheap. Springs came back healthy, so Rogers was moved to 3rd. Being stuck behind Shawn Springs and Deangelo Hall doesn't mean you are a bad player, it simply means you are stuck behind 2 other great CBs.

Damn son, very well put.

[NewCliche21]

Rogers was targeted 12 times more than the next closest corner on that list, in terms of targets, thereby offering more chances for yardage gained. The fact that his sample size is 15% larger casts, coupled with your stat, casts Carlos in an unfavorable light. That is why the more empirically sound success rate better quantifies Carlos' impact.

Wow. Completely owned.

[SkinsRMoney06]

Often, when the coverage is zone, the cushion given is generally defined by the corner's responsibility (i.e., the area of the field - and any offensive player who enters it - he is defending).

In a man coverage scheme, the player generally has more input and can play "off." Man coverage schemes, more or less, are designed with the corner's skillset in mind. For instance, Shawn Springs will press his man, whereas Carlos Rogers will play "off" and offer a free release while following the QBs eyes, hoping to make a break on the ball. Much of this is predicated on what the corner is seeing from his opponent. Typically, faster receivers are played in off-man, while bigger receivers are pressed. Of course, there are other variables.

While Carlos is good in man coverage, Springs is our best corner in that regard. Carlos isn't really a bump-and-run corner, in the way that Springs is, but he's gotten much better in playing physical.

Pounds-

Thank you for answering my question. This is what ES needs to be about. There are SO many knowledgeable football fans on this site, it is a gem if you can wade through all of the BS.

-James

[Warhead36]

Great post Pounds. I never understand how people can keep saying "Rogers sucks and gets burned constantly" or crap like that when he was clearly our best CB this past year. Yes he can't catch but the fact that he's in position to break up so many passes is a good thing. I'd rather have a CB who shuts down most receivers but doesn't get picks then a CB who gets burned regularly but grabs the occasional pick.

If the choice is between Rogers and Hall, my choice is Rogers. He's a guy we drafted and developed, and he'll probably come cheaper anyway. Unfortunately he's the anti-Snyder Skin. His play is solid but not flashy. I'm going to be pretty pissed if we trade Rogers for a middle round pick and re-sign Hall, but I guess it shouldn't surprise anyone anymore than Snyder values style and hype over substance and productivity.

[steve09ru]

You do realize that in your attempt to support your opinion that Carlos Rogers is a good corner and shouldnt be traded you are actually doing the opposite. I dont understand why you Rogers supporters cant get it through your heads that hes not even close to an elite cover CB.

He was thrown at 92 freeking times. 92. The only other CB of that group with that kind of pass attempts is Nick Harper who is known as a good cover 2 tackling CB, but bad in coverage. Not only is this a result of Los playing 7 yards off the reciever and giving up 3, 4 and 5 yard gains because he is a great tackler but poor in coverage, but also due to the fact that opposing qb's are not scared of him. They can risk fitting a pass into a tight space for a 4 yard gain because they know the worst thing that is gonna happen is an incomplete pass. After doing this a couple times they then hit Rogers with a double move and bam, touchdown. Rogers belongs in a primarily cover 2 scheme defense. Get over it. I understand we all want homegrown talent but damn get off the boys ****.

92 times tested...succession rate 63%... that comes to a grand total of 58 "incompletions"

and some of you want him gone...he was tested so much because we faced every top passing attack in the league and he covered every top wr on those teams....:doh:

get rid of him please...Hall will be the only one we have left and who knows how he will even do without someone opposite of him that is even half decent (Rogers)...because we all know Springs will only play 6-7 games next year and Smoot can't cover anyone

And PS Mountain Mama-

Both he and Rocky were noticebly declining a little by the end of the year...you do realize they both had major surgery and were expected to not even start the season off right?

[ncr2h]

Fred Smoot's second stint with the Redskins wasn't as good as his first stint (he led the team in INTs his first four years, if my memory is correct), but he is a capable cornerback, a good tackler, and a good person to have as a Redskin. I think some of our limitations in play-making comes from our system, but if the player is in position to make plays they should.

Seems like you'll make plenty of excuses when it comes to Smoot...

Since Smoot rejoined the Redskins, Rogers has more picks, more touchdowns, and more fumble recoveries. In less games. Yet Rogers is the one that lacks playmaking ability.

I think they're both good - Rogers overachieved this year, and Smoot was stuck in a rut this year. I think there will be some reversion to the mean next season. But it just doesn't make sense to me that you're trying to claim how logical you are about this whole thing, when all we have to do is look at your screenname to see where the bias is.

Here's my take on the situation:

Retain Rogers this year. AT WORST, he will demand a gigantic contract next offseason and we can let him go and pick up a nice compensatory pick (3rd-5th round). AT BEST, he will suffer a non-career-threatening injury that will force his value way down, and we can re-sign him for a Smoot-esque deal. Most likely to happen is he has a solid if unspectacular year and we lock him up for $12-15 million guaranteed.

I just don't get why we want to trade him this year, when we can just pick up a 3rd or 4th round compensatory pick next year when his contract's up? His contract right now is pretty reasonable.

[Pounds]

If the choice is between Rogers and Hall, my choice is Rogers.

I was somewhat surprised to see that, statistically, Hall had performed as well as he did; I was expecting the stats to reflect his gambling and thereby more inconsistent nature. I'm still somewhat leery of Hall, though, for varying reasons, and, if pressed into making a decision between the two, I'd take Carlos.

Thankfully, though, it's not an either/or situation. Carlos is under contract for '09 and we can franchise him in '10 and those should be two productive and cost-effective season of play from him.

[Rufus T Firefly]

The answer(s) to the "Why was Rogers benched?" question seem obvious:

1. There was a noticeable decline in his play the last 5 games or so. The logical assumption of many of us is that he wore down, because players don't just get worse for no reason, and there is every reason to assume that the comeback from injury could cause that kind of wearing down.

2. The team desperately needed turnovers to win games and that isn't Rogers' strong suit.

3. The team wanted to evaluate Hall and there is a lot of loyalty to Springs.

It's silly to think that Rogers not playing as much the last few weeks is in any way an indication that he isn't a very good CB.

[The Mountain Mama]

P.S. Rogers wasn't benched, he was stuck behind 2 CBs who'd start for almost every single team in the NFL. Springs was injured and not playing games, we snagged Hall for cheap. Springs came back healthy, so Rogers was moved to 3rd. Being stuck behind Shawn Springs and Deangelo Hall doesn't mean you are a bad player, it simply means you are stuck behind 2 other great CBs.

So this is how you sum up your case. Your right, Rogers wasn't benched, he was just told he lost his starting spot and to watch from the sidelines until someone needed a breather or a nickel package was being used, AKA BENCHED. Honestly one of the dumbest things I have ever heard from someone that seems to know a little about football.

We can sit here and BS on stats or we can discuss the bigger picture. My purpose this whole time has'nt been to bash Rogers but to give evidence of why we should keep Hall instead of Rogers and you obviously agree with me. Hall is a better fit for our system, he will be cheaper then Rogers and he can catch the ball. So we have 3 options.

1. Let Hall walk, get nothing for him and sign Rogers to a big time contract and hope his great play of late was'nt just contract influenced.

2. Resign Hall and keep Rogers for the last year of his contract where he would probaly play his best football and then let him hit the free agent market and probaly get nothing for him. (Possibly could franchise-trade Rogers instead of letting him hit free agency which I would not be opposed to but the FO needs to figure that out now)

3. Re-sign Hall and trade Rogers for a 1st day draft pick and use that on offensive or defensive line help.

Of course what happens with Springs is gonna be a huge factor in all of this but we shall see.

[Smoot Point Really]

Benching Rogers just seems so stupid, though. He performed very well when Springs was out. Rogers is young, Hall is even younger, and Springs is, at this point, not head and shoulders above either of them. Bench him and give Rogers the playing time. He's earned it at this point.

He had back-to-back games where he gave up TDs with blown coverage and poor effort... That is why he got benched. It isn't stupid to bench a guy who is playing poorly AND not making plays when the opportunity is presented. It was good (and surprising) to see him make that play in the 49ers game.

My original position has always been the guy has to make plays... I always thought he was fine in coverage and haven't criticized his abilities there. The reason my mind hasn't changed is because he continues dropping more INTs than he has caught. You think I want him to fail just to prove my point? I may not deserve more respect, but at least try not showing me any disrespect. That's a horrible thing to say about anyone. The reason my opinion hasn't changed is because the conditions that I based my opinion on haven't changed.

[Smoot Point Really]

Seems like you'll make plenty of excuses when it comes to Smoot...

I have no excuses when it comes to Fred Smoot... When Fred Smoot was drafted, he led the Redskins in interceptions just about every year he was here. He was ideally suited for man-coverage situations... Now, I confess that he is probably our 4th best coverage guy overall, even though I think his tackling is on par with Carlos Rogers (if not better... he may not hit harder, but his tackles and run-support are excellent and on par).

I wouldn't say Smoot has lost a step, but I won't argue with those who do. His interceptions have dropped significantly since his first time here, but he is valuable, wants to win at all costs (even to his own health) and still loves the game.

If Carlos Rogers had as many interceptions in his first years as Fred Smoot had, he'd have been a perennial pro-bowler... Instead, we're stuck with these mind numbing discussions about the value of a player who isn't a complete player.

[ncr2h]

So this is how you sum up your case. Your right, Rogers wasn't benched, he was just told he lost his starting spot and to watch from the sidelines until someone needed a breather or a nickel package was being used, AKA BENCHED. Honestly one of the dumbest things I have ever heard from someone that seems to know a little about football.

We can sit here and BS on stats or we can discuss the bigger picture. My purpose this whole time has'nt been to bash Rogers but to give evidence of why we should keep Hall instead of Rogers and you obviously agree with me. Hall is a better fit for our system, he will be cheaper then Rogers and he can catch the ball. So we have 3 options.

1. Let Hall walk, get nothing for him and sign Rogers to a big time contract and hope his great play of late was'nt just contract influenced.

2. Resign Hall and keep Rogers for the last year of his contract where he would probaly play his best football and then let him hit the free agent market and probaly get nothing for him. (Possibly could franchise-trade Rogers instead of letting him hit free agency which I would not be opposed to but the FO needs to figure that out now)

3. Re-sign Hall and trade Rogers for a 1st day draft pick and use that on offensive or defensive line help.

Of course what happens with Springs is gonna be a huge factor in all of this but we shall see.

How do you figure Rogers will be more expensive to resign than Hall? Hall has been to multiple pro bowls. Hall has tons of interceptions over his career. The only feather in Rogers' cap is that, for the past 2 years, he has had a very good "success rate".

Also, keep in mind that when a player leaves your team in free agency, your team receives a compensatory draft pick. What's the point of trading Rogers for a 2nd or 3rd, when we can just get him to play out his contract and then pick up a 3rd or 4th round compensatory pick when another team overpays for him?

I maintain that we should re-sign both Hall and Rogers to reasonable deals. Seems like one of the most obvious moves of the offseason, but looks like our front office is going to **** this up.

[BabyFacedAssassin]

Those numbers are good and all,but does anyone watch the games?

Did we all forget 2006 and 2007? You guys forgot all the big plays,dropped INTs and 3rd downs hed give up? Hes a good tackler,but avg at best in coverage.He plays hard though.What makes him look worse than he is,is when the mistakes happen.

He did step it up this year,but towards the end it was getting back to the same old stuff.

[Rhodus333]

All this goes away if you just get rid of Springs......................

[seantaylor=god]

Seems like you'll make plenty of excuses when it comes to Smoot...

Since Smoot rejoined the Redskins, Rogers has more picks, more touchdowns, and more fumble recoveries. In less games. Yet Rogers is the one that lacks playmaking ability.

I think they're both good - Rogers overachieved this year, and Smoot was stuck in a rut this year. I think there will be some reversion to the mean next season. But it just doesn't make sense to me that you're trying to claim how logical you are about this whole thing, when all we have to do is look at your screenname to see where the bias is.

Here's my take on the situation:

Retain Rogers this year. AT WORST, he will demand a gigantic contract next offseason and we can let him go and pick up a nice compensatory pick (3rd-5th round). AT BEST, he will suffer a non-career-threatening injury that will force his value way down, and we can re-sign him for a Smoot-esque deal. Most likely to happen is he has a solid if unspectacular year and we lock him up for $12-15 million guaranteed.

I just don't get why we want to trade him this year, when we can just pick up a 3rd or 4th round compensatory pick next year when his contract's up? His contract right now is pretty reasonable.

Great, GREAT points. Thats how you build a team and get top value for guys.

The only thing I would add is since even if we sign Hall we know Springs won't last too much longer, see if we have any room for a mid range contract for Rogers just to hedge our bets if he does have a huge season (I would not be surprised- usually 2 years after major knee injuries guys are fully healthy, not 1 year. Rocky Mac may step up too

[Smoot Point Really]

My only fear in getting rid of Shawn Springs is him going to Dallas where they actually need him badly... Would be sort of a "coming home" for him to play for Dallas and he'd probably sign a relatively modest contract to play there. Even if he gets injured, he only has to play two games a year to be a problem for us. I kind of like Dallas' secondary and it's blitz-happy and coverage woes... If they fix coverage, we have problems.

Anyway, regardless of my fears...

You have to find a way to keep Hall, Rogers and Smoot... I mean, Rogers is still under contract so he won't be going anywhere next year unless we trade him. The problem is signing Hall and figuring out what to do with Shawn Springs.

[fnkdctr(007)]

92 times tested...succession rate 63%... that comes to a grand total of 58 "incompletions"

and some of you want him gone...he was tested so much because we faced every top passing attack in the league and he covered every top wr on those teams....:doh:

get rid of him please...Hall will be the only one we have left and who knows how he will even do without someone opposite of him that is even half decent (Rogers)...because we all know Springs will only play 6-7 games next year and Smoot can't cover anyone

And PS Mountain Mama-

Both he and Rocky were noticebly declining a little by the end of the year...you do realize they both had major surgery and were expected to not even start the season off right?

For everyone's edification (booyaa) Rogers was tested more then any other corner because of a statistically anomaly called CGP. Or can't get a Pick

What QB is worried about throwing at Carlos? The result is either a gain or an incompletion. Hence over 90 attempts his way. AND...just so you know I believe Stone Hands is a good corner who should be retained and retrained. He's a great nickel and an above average corner who os not afraid to mix it up in the run game.:2cents:

[NerdBaller]

I may be the only one to think this but, this is how I see things playing out...

1) We sign D. Hall to a long-term contract

2) We trade C Rodgers for a 3rd round pick

3) We retain S. Springs

Once next year rolls around, D. Hall begins to show his weaknesses and S Springs holds everything together for 3/4 of the season. The other 1/4 of the season, he is out injured and our CB position suffers. The next offseason, S Springs signs somewhere else and we are stuck with one mediocre cornerback (D. Hall).

I want the Skins to sign C Rodgers and not D. Hall. If they sign both, I will be content, but I believe the offseason priority should be to sign C Rodgers. C Rodgers should be the cornerstone of our CB group for the next 5 years.

[The Mountain Mama]

How do you figure Rogers will be more expensive to resign than Hall? Hall has been to multiple pro bowls. Hall has tons of interceptions over his career. The only feather in Rogers' cap is that, for the past 2 years, he has had a very good "success rate".

Also, keep in mind that when a player leaves your team in free agency, your team receives a compensatory draft pick. What's the point of trading Rogers for a 2nd or 3rd, when we can just get him to play out his contract and then pick up a 3rd or 4th round compensatory pick when another team overpays for him?

I maintain that we should re-sign both Hall and Rogers to reasonable deals. Seems like one of the most obvious moves of the offseason, but looks like our front office is going to **** this up.

I promise you Rogers will want/get a bigger deal then Hall, I can't prove it but mark my words.

"Success rate" means nothing, just a stat some d-bag made up to try and validate an argument. If success rate was something to rate a corner back by then I guess Los is no better then Nick Harper.

You cant rely on comp picks which are at best 4th round picks (end of 3rd round) to get value for a player. Period. Huge difference in early 2nd round and early 4th.

Signing Rogers and Hall will not happen. See Denver's project of tying up tons of money in CB's (Bly and Bailey) and not having a strong pass rush. Doesnt work.

I personally think we re-sign Hall and either keep Springs or sign Bryant Mcfadden from the Steelers who I wouldnt consider much of a down grade from Rogers considering he can tackle well and can catch.

[CRAZYHORSE19682003]

Don't forget Carlos was coming of knee reconstruction surgery, he had his best year and was probably only 90%. I think the knee wore own as the years went on and he lacked that burst. Give him an offseason in the strength and conditioning program and I think he can make a major jump next year.

Lastly with our disgraceful pass rush a secondary full of Deion Sanders would get burnt here and there. Put some legitimate defensive lineman on the field than Carlos will start looking like an all world talent. Trading him would be absolutely moronic, since little Danny boy is in charge, see ya Carlos.

[Mahons21]

Until our Front 7 drastically improve, and our blitzes gain some complexity (maybe even a stunt every now and then), we will need to retain all of our corners. If we are stuck with players like Tryon getting PT with our D-line, we could be up for some real heartbreakers.

[georgiaredskin]

Yea. I kinda wishes Los goes to another team. Just so some of you people would realize how bad we'd be without him.

NO! Don't say it! Don't give in to the devil!

We have to learn that this is a message board "filled with haters" as Larry Michael would say.

However, IF the dreaded did happen. Your point would be the only thing to look forward to. (but I will be dead by then, because as I said before, I would die if this happens).

Don't forget Carlos was coming of knee reconstruction surgery, he had his best year and was probably only 90%. I think the knee wore own as the years went on and he lacked that burst.

Put some legitimate defensive lineman on the field than Carlos will start looking like an all world talent. Trading him would be absolutely moronic, since little Danny boy is in charge, see ya Carlos.

There is nothing truer than the truth.

[NewCliche21]

Don't forget Carlos was coming of knee reconstruction surgery, he had his best year and was probably only 90%. I think the knee wore own as the years went on and he lacked that burst. Give him an offseason in the strength and conditioning program and I think he can make a major jump next year.

Lastly with our disgraceful pass rush a secondary full of Deion Sanders would get burnt here and there. Put some legitimate defensive lineman on the field than Carlos will start looking like an all world talent. Trading him would be absolutely moronic, since little Danny boy is in charge, see ya Carlos.

/thread

[Pounds]

There is nothing truer than the truth.

I like that.

I'm gonna have to borrow this sometime.