Pounds Posted January 28, 2009 Share Posted January 28, 2009 This is a follow-up of sorts to the "Trade Rogers or not?" thread. There was some discussion amongst those that left comments regarding Carlos' impact or perceived lack thereof. I thought it might be helpful to quantify his impact through stats compiled by Football Outsiders.com. The following are the top-10 starting corners as measured by success rate (which, for those unfamiliar, I will define at this post's end): [b][u][size=2]Top 10 starting CBs in terms of Success Rate*[/size][/u][/b] [size=2]Player Team Charted Passes Yd/Pass Success Rate[/size] [size=2]31-A. Harris GB 38 5.0 79% [/size] [size=2]24-S. Brown PHI 55 4.6 73% [/size] [size=2]21-C. Woodson GB 57 6.4 66% [/size] [size=2]22-S. Rolle BAL 40 4.4 65% [/size] [size=2]26-A. Winfield MIN 59 6.0 64% [/size] [size=2]21-N. Asomugha OAK 26 5.8 64% [/size] [size=2]23-C. Webster NYG 65 5.1 63% [/size] [size=2]22-C. Rogers WAS 92 5.6 63% [/size] [size=2]24-D. Foxworth ATL 48 5.6 63% [/size] [size=2]20-N. Harper TEN 90 5.7 62%[/size] Here are our corners: [b][u][size=2]Redskins in terms of Success Rate[/size][/u][/b] [size=2]Player Team Charted Passes Yd/Pass Success Rate[/size] [size=2]22-C. Rogers WAS 92 5.6 63% [/size] [size=2]23-D. Hall WAS 24 3.2 67% [/size] [size=2]24-S. Springs WAS 34 6.3 53% [/size] [size=2]27-F. Smoot WAS 56 8.7 38% [/size] It's important to mention that both Springs' and Hall's stats are somewhat skewed; Springs' by injury and Hall's by a limited sample size. [b][u][size=2]Top 10 starting CBs in terms of Yards Per Pass[/size][/u][/b] [size=2]Player Team Charted Passes Yd/Pass Success Rate[/size] [size=2]22-S. Rolle BAL 40 4.4 65% [/size] [size=2]24-S. Brown PHI 55 4.6 73% [/size] [size=2]31-A. Harris GB 38 5.0 79% [/size] [size=2]24-B. Flowers KC 60 5.1 55% [/size] [size=2]23-C. Webster NYG 65 5.1 63% [/size] [size=2]29-D. Rogers-Cromartie ARI 64 5.4 52% [/size] [size=2]26-K. Hayden IND 45 5.5 60% [/size] [size=2]22-C. Rogers WAS 92 5.6 63% [/size] [size=2]24-D. Foxworth ATL 48 5.6 63% [/size] [size=2]20-N. Harper TEN 90 5.7 62% [/size] [b][u][size=2]Top 10 among CBs with at least 30 pass tackles[/size][/u][/b] [size=2]Player Team Pass Tackles Stop Rate[/size] [size=2]26-A. Winfield MIN 56 45% [/size] [size=2]35-C. Ivy BAL 33 42% [/size] [size=2]20-A. Cason SD 50 40% [/size] [size=2]20-B. McFadden PIT 34 35% [/size] [size=2]22-N. Clements SF 40 35% [/size] [size=2]20-N. Harper TEN 55 35% [/size] [size=2]20-R. Barber TB 47 32% [/size] [size=2]24-S. Brown PHI 31 29% [/size] [size=2]22-C. Rogers WAS 45 29% [/size] [size=2]34-D. Lowry NYJ 55 27%[/size] [b][u][size=2]Bottom 10 starting CBs in terms of Success Rate[/size][/u][/b] [size=2]Player Team Charted Passes Yd/Pass Success Rate[/size] [size=2]25-B. Kelly DET 37 11.6 32% [/size] [size=2]23-T. Jennings IND 57 8.6 37% [/size] [size=2]27-F. Smoot WAS 56 8.7 38% [/size] [size=2]21-T. Fisher DET 36 9.3 39% [/size] [size=2]22-J. Joseph CIN 40 8.2 40% [/size] [size=2]28-L. Bodden DET 76 9.0 41% [/size] [size=2]39-B. Carr KC 76 8.8 41% [/size] [size=2]21-C. Graham CHI 62 7.7 42% [/size] [size=2]32-D. Bly DEN 80 8.4 43% [/size] [size=2]32-F. Bennett HOU 47 7.7 43%[/size] I threw this one in just to clarify what I had suspected the season through; Fred Smoot sucks. His numbers were such that they were enough to qualify him a starter. He is, at this point in his career, a dime corner at best and most fittingly a quarter corner; certainly not a nickel. By now it should be evident that while Carlos is not an absolute top-tier talent, he is damn close. Trading him would be a mistake, but certainly not the first, nor the last mistake the front office "brain trust" will make. Not only is he more than solid in pass coverage (and our best man-coverage corner) he is a solid tackler from his corner position. *Success rate - the percentage of plays that targeted a defensive player on which the offense did not have a successful play. Successful play is defined as not only incomplete passes and interceptions, but also short completions that do not meet the 45%/60%/100% baseline for success detailed in the description of DVOA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hunter_R Posted January 28, 2009 Share Posted January 28, 2009 Boo. Hiss. Rogers got benched because he sucked. The Skins will be fine with Hall and Springs for 1 game, then Hall and Smoot for the rest. Possibly Smoot and Tryon based on Hall's satisfaction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Mountain Mama Posted January 28, 2009 Share Posted January 28, 2009 You do realize that in your attempt to support your opinion that Carlos Rogers is a good corner and shouldnt be traded you are actually doing the opposite. I dont understand why you Rogers supporters cant get it through your heads that hes not even close to an elite cover CB. He was thrown at 92 freeking times. 92. The only other CB of that group with that kind of pass attempts is Nick Harper who is known as a good cover 2 tackling CB, but bad in coverage. Not only is this a result of Los playing 7 yards off the reciever and giving up 3, 4 and 5 yard gains because he is a great tackler but poor in coverage, but also due to the fact that opposing qb's are not scared of him. They can risk fitting a pass into a tight space for a 4 yard gain because they know the worst thing that is gonna happen is an incomplete pass. After doing this a couple times they then hit Rogers with a double move and bam, touchdown. Rogers belongs in a primarily cover 2 scheme defense. Get over it. I understand we all want homegrown talent but damn get off the boys ****. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CRobi21 Posted January 28, 2009 Share Posted January 28, 2009 They can risk fitting a pass into a tight space for a 4 yard gain because they know the worst thing that is gonna happen is an incomplete pass. After doing this a couple times they then hit Rogers with a double move and bam, touchdown. Please show me a game where this has happened. I'm curious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Mountain Mama Posted January 28, 2009 Share Posted January 28, 2009 Please show me a game where this has happened. I'm curious. Off the top of my head I remember Toomer got him for a 40 yard TD, Chris Henry got him for like a 35 yard TD, and I think he was had against B'more also. That was what his last 3 games before getting benched. Could research the whole season but I think this should prove my point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redskins59 Posted January 28, 2009 Share Posted January 28, 2009 Off the top of my head I remember Toomer got him for a 40 yard TD, Chris Henry got him for like a 35 yard TD, and I think he was had against B'more also. That was what his last 3 games before getting benched. Could research the whole season but I think this should prove my point. Toomer owned Smoot, not Rogers. As far as the Chris Henry and the B'more TD's, those are the only two you can name because those are the only two big TD's he gave up ALL YEAR LONG. Remember last year when Springs got abused by TO? How many TD's did he give up that game alone? Rogers is the best CB we got. Hall was great for us, but sample size isn't big enough. I'd like to have em both. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CRobi21 Posted January 28, 2009 Share Posted January 28, 2009 Yea. I kinda wishes Los goes to another team. Just so some of you people would realize how bad we'd be without him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
21DIEHARDSKINSFAN21 Posted January 28, 2009 Share Posted January 28, 2009 that was smoot who got burnd for the td by toomer and carlos rogers is filthy nasty he just cant catch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eljeasel Posted January 28, 2009 Share Posted January 28, 2009 Off the top of my head I remember Toomer got him for a 40 yard TD, Chris Henry got him for like a 35 yard TD, and I think he was had against B'more also. That was what his last 3 games before getting benched. Could research the whole season but I think this should prove my point. That Bmore one is on the DL. QBs should not have had time like that when we blitz that heavy. Los still got burned but that is hardly an indicator of how he played on the season. Esp the first 12 or so games he was the best DB on the squad. He just cant catch. I say keep him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kubstix Posted January 28, 2009 Share Posted January 28, 2009 Off the top of my head I remember Toomer got him for a 40 yard TD, Chris Henry got him for like a 35 yard TD, and I think he was had against B'more also. That was what his last 3 games before getting benched. Could research the whole season but I think this should prove my point. Toomer burnt Smoot but ok.....Chris Henry got one woooowww big deal. Derek Mason.....ohhhh 2? 2? Like come on man......There are corners who haven't gave up a TD in the NFL? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
33 Posted January 28, 2009 Share Posted January 28, 2009 As I mentioned in another thread, his numbers may very well be irrelevant. We're talking about a guy who waited until he had two years left on his contract to start studying game film. I imagine any internal debate at Redskins Park about Rogers future has to do with his work habits, and if they feel he would continue them with a new deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Mountain Mama Posted January 28, 2009 Share Posted January 28, 2009 that was smoot who got burnd for the td by toomer and carlos rogers is filthy nasty he just cant catch. Your right about Toomer, it was Smoot. It really doesnt matter though because if your gonna use these stats to prove your point your not gonna convince anybody hes a good cover corner, he has the same exact stats as Nick Harper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dance04 Posted January 28, 2009 Share Posted January 28, 2009 Pounds you win the award for best thread of the week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CRobi21 Posted January 28, 2009 Share Posted January 28, 2009 Nevermind.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Mountain Mama Posted January 28, 2009 Share Posted January 28, 2009 I don't even know why I post about the Rogers topic anymore honestly. It's like beating a dead horse. You don't pay a corner top 5 or 7 CB money if he doesnt fit your system and especially if they can't catch. On top of that his study habits have been in question according to coaches. Get what you can while you can. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kubstix Posted January 28, 2009 Share Posted January 28, 2009 Your right about Toomer, it was Smoot. It really doesnt matter though because if your gonna use these stats to prove your point your not gonna convince anybody hes a good cover corner, he has the same exact stats as Nick Harper. .....what? What are you suggesting with Nick Harper? Did you know he plays for the Titans? 9th against the pass.....with a crazy front 4..? Nobody could run on us....nobody could run against the Titans. Teams were forced to pass on us alot more much like the Titans as well. 92 Passes.....thats a pretty good success rate for being tested. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Mountain Mama Posted January 28, 2009 Share Posted January 28, 2009 .....what? What are you suggesting with Nick Harper? Did you know he plays for the Titans? 9th against the pass.....with a crazy front 4..? Nobody could run on us....nobody could run against the Titans. Teams were forced to pass on us alot more much like the Titans as well. 92 Passes.....thats a pretty good success rate for being tested. No I had no idea he played for the Titans.:doh: <-- Picture of me smacking myself in the head because im such an idiot and didn't know that Nick Harper played for the Titans. Even though it was in the OP and common football knowledge. I would like to see how many time Springs or Finnegan were thrown at compared to Harper and Rogers. Especially since Harper and Rogers are usually covering #2 Wr's and still getting thrown at this many times. What? What? What? Cortland Finnegand? Oh yea, he plays for the Titans. I just don't understand why a guy who you consider our best CB is getting thrown at so many times a game when he's covering #2 WR's. You would think he would be able to shut them down and even maybe be able to get a interception here or there causing QB's to throw at him less. That is unless of course he is giving #2 WR's a cushion so he doesnt get beat deep because he can't cover downfield.... I wonder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Acre Posted January 28, 2009 Share Posted January 28, 2009 I agree in the sense that since he was tested 92 times and his yardage give-up was 0.6 yds more than #1, tested about some 38 times, then it shows me that Rogers is not giving up a bunch of big plays because they would obviously stretch his yardage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jivelikenice Posted January 28, 2009 Share Posted January 28, 2009 This is all ridiculous to me. I don't get why they don't cut Springs, re-sign Hall and then let Carlos play out his contract.....This to me makes almost too much sense...Yes, Springs may be the best when he's healthy but that's not going to happen here. He's older, injury prone, and has a high salary.....He hit the trifecta Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thedevilhimself Posted January 28, 2009 Share Posted January 28, 2009 This is getting joke worthy the fact that some fans can do nothing but hate . Rogers is a top 10 CB ... he is very physical and plays both good against the run and the pass . Every QB get beat from time to time . Last year he took the No.1. WR as Springs went down . I am more impressed with Rogers than I was with Champ Baily who struggled against the likes of Ike Hillard ( i remember in one Giants game him catching 5-6 8 yard hooks right in front of him in a row) . Rogers can actually tackle . In fact because he is so good against the run in the Ravens game the double move on Rogers came on a series where the Ravens had just moved the length of the field running the ball, and the defense was playing the run. But its okay you can ignore this and just continue with your hating schedule . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatsnack Posted January 28, 2009 Share Posted January 28, 2009 No I had no idea he played for the Titans.:doh: <-- Picture of me smacking myself in the head because im such an idiot and didn't know that Nick Harper played for the Titans. Even though it was in the OP and common football knowledge. I would like to see how many time Springs or Finnegan were thrown at compared to Harper and Rogers. Especially since Harper and Rogers are usually covering #2 Wr's and still getting thrown at this many times. What? What? What? Cortland Finnegand? Oh yea, he plays for the Titans.I just don't understand why a guy who you consider our best CB is getting thrown at so many times a game when he's covering #2 WR's. You would think he would be able to shut them down and even maybe be able to get a interception here or there causing QB's to throw at him less. That is unless of course he is giving #2 WR's a cushion so he doesnt get beat deep because he can't cover downfield.... I wonder. What you are forgetting or neglecting to remember is that with Springs out for so many games, it was Rogers covering #1 corners most of the season. It is a passing league, see: Cardianls, Arizona. You do not, Do NOT, trade young corners with talent in the modern NFL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkekoa Posted January 28, 2009 Share Posted January 28, 2009 All you have to do is look at the Dallas game and see what he did to TO. He shut him down...end of story. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SkinsFTW Posted January 28, 2009 Share Posted January 28, 2009 You do not, Do NOT, trade young corners with talent in the modern NFL. This is the Redskins FO you are talking about. They will sign Hall for 50-60Mil and trade Rogers for a 4th or 5th rounder then 50% chance of Hall not lasting more than 2-3 seasons here while being toasted repeatedly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hokieskins1 Posted January 28, 2009 Share Posted January 28, 2009 I do want Rogers back for a long deal, but if he is not going to re-sign with us after next year I do feel that we need to deal him this year and get something in return for him then to just let him hit the market. I have been a HUGE supporter of Rogers, still am. I wish him well if he does go elsewhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paloosa Posted January 28, 2009 Share Posted January 28, 2009 Carlos Rogers is a good corner but stone hands. He had one INT because it hit him in the stomach and not the hands. He almost dropped that one also. He is thrown at a lot because he is always on the oppositions best receiver because Springs is always hurt. Hall has proven that he is a keeper also but what they need to do is keep them all and move Springs to safety where we would have three quality players that can cover. Smoot is not even close to being the player we drafted. We need to make a decision on him and if cutting him is the right move than so be it. We need to see what we have in Tryon so we don't go into every offseason waiting for him to blossom only to find out we have nothing but a wasted draft pick. If we trade or cut Rogers than we need to have a better player than Smoot to replace him with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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