A direct correlation in drafting a 1st round OT and immediate offensive improvement

[SkinsTillIDie]

The NFL is evolving, and more and more teams are seeing the benefit of drafting an offensive tackle in the first round of the draft. Though certainly not the "sexy" pick, this method seems to indicate a very consistent level of immediate improvement to the offense.

Looking at the past three drafts, I've found that of the 12 teams who selected offensive tackles in the first round, 9 of them saw a significant improvement in offensive ranking the following season. The exceptions being Detroit in 2008 and San Francisco in 2007, while Chicago in 2008 only improved by one ranking - though their draft selection, Chris Williams, missed the entire season with a herniated disc.

The 9 teams who did improve jumped an average of 12.7 spots on offense the next year. Looking at all 12 teams who drafted an offensive tackle in the first round, the average jump was still 8.2 spots.

Obviously, this correlation doesn't take into account all of the other offseason management/coaching developments that occurred with each franchise. However, the one constant remains: they all drafted an offensive tackle with their first round selection.

2008 Draft:

#1 Miami Dolphins - Jake Long (28st ranked offense ➞ 12th ranked offense) (16 starts)

#12 Denver Broncos - Ryan Clady (11 ➞ 2) (16 starts)

#14 Chicago Bears - Chris Williams (27 ➞ 26) (0 starts)

#15 Kansas City Chiefs - Branden Albert (31 ➞ 24) (15 starts)

#17 Detroit Lions - Gosder Cherilus (19 ➞ 30) (13 starts)

#19 Carolina Panthers - Jeff Otah (29 ➞ 10) (12 starts)

#21 Atlanta Falcons - Sam Baker (23 ➞ 6) (5 starts)

#26 Houston Texans - Duane Brown (14 ➞ 3) (16 starts)

2007 Draft:

#3 Cleveland Browns - #3 OT Joe Thomas (31 ➞ 8) (16 starts)

#5 Arizona Cardinals - #5 OT Levi Brown (18 ➞ 12) (11 starts)

#28 San Francisco - #28 OT Joe Staley (26 ➞ 32) (16 starts)

2006 Draft:

#4 New York Jets - OT D'Brickashaw Ferguson (31 ➞ 25) (16 starts)

[NewCliche21]

Nice research, man!

I miss seeing posts like these.

I guess I'm just not sold on Heyer's ineffectiveness, as we haven't seen too much of him and Bugel would put a 40-year-old tackling dummy on the line over a 21-year-old Bostic. I'd rather see us get pass-protecting guards and a new center, as that pocket doesn't even form and Rabach had SO many idiotic penalties this year.

My wishlist is a guard then a DT then rinse and repeat for the rest (read: both) of our remaining draft picks.

[Skinsinparadise]

good post, am sure there are more variables but clearly O line play is a factor, your post also does a good job making the case that most 1st round O line draft picks do well.

[SkinsHokieFan]

Good post, but I think its one of those action doesn't neccissarily mean causation type deals.

2008 may have just been a great year for OTs. Go back a few years and look at some busts like Robert Gallery or go way back for Andre Johnson (shudder)

And when the Redskins drafted Chris Samuels, the offense was actually WORSE in 2000 then in 1999 (majorily in part to injuries)

[Skins PR]

Vinny knows this is all just a coincidence.

[NewCliche21]

Good post, but I think its one of those action doesn't neccissarily mean causation type deals.

2008 may have just been a great year for OTs. Go back a few years and look at some busts like Robert Gallery or go way back for Andre Johnson (shudder)

And when the Redskins drafted Chris Samuels, the offense was actually WORSE in 2000 then in 1999 (majorily in part to injuries)

Injuries and the fact that we replaced, I don't know, everyone with whoever had the top ratings in Madden '93.

[Skins PR]

And when the Redskins drafted Chris Samuels, the offense was actually WORSE in 2000 then in 1999 (majorily in part to injuries)

If by "injuries" you mean "Dan Snyder ruining the team" then yes.

[IbleedBnG83]

Eugene Moore, here we come! Hopefully they address it also in the FA.

[ohioskinsfan]

Great post.

Strap in it's going to be an interesting next couple of months to see what unfolds.

HTTR

[WSHRedskins3ATLBraves3]

Very good post.

Other factors certainly played into the offensive improvement of these teams, but the common factor was the drafting of an OT.

I'm not sure how much of a coincidence it was, but you can't argue with the results.

[ThePreciating]

Shouldn't this be in the ATN? I'm no mod, and I know people want linemen, but the original post doesn't even mention the Redskins.

[[[ghost]]]

That is some VERY promising research.

The Panther's progress shows me the most. They drafted a quality College LT and turned him into a RT (which we would do since we already have Samuels). But they also drafteda very good RB in Jonathan Stewart. While DeAngelo Williams is the RB who had the most success in that system, there's no doubt that having such a quality back to give him time to breathe helped him.

Also, it helps tremendously that the Dolphins also acquired a pretty accurate Veteran QB in Chad Pennington. Plus a HC that had experience coaching up OLs had to be beneficial.

All in all, I desperately want to get Michael Oher or Eugene Monroe in Burgundy next year.

[WSHRedskins3ATLBraves3]

];6053610']All in all' date=' I desperately want to get Michael Oher [/quote']

The only time I've seen him play was this year in the Cotton Bowl, but he played very well.

Also on a side note, he has an interesting story. He was homeless and a family basically just adopted him off the streets.

[bushwack]

Shouldn't this be in the ATN? I'm no mod, and I know people want linemen, but the original post doesn't even mention the Redskins.

I'm no mod either but I think this belongs in the Stadium, because this shows why the Skins should draft a tackle in the 1st round of this year's draft. Hopefully Oher is still available at pick 13.

[CRobi21]

Wow dude. Great info here, great thread also.

We need to send this to Vinny somehow, hopefully they get the message this year.

[LD0506]

Great post, it is always refreshing to come here and see people actially talking about foolball

As some already said there may not be that direct one-to-one connection but maybe the mindset that sees the benefit in drafting O-linemen high allows for improvement elsewhere, as opposed to.....well, you know.

[Oldskool]

Good research! Love seeing numbers like this.

Also note that the two teams whose numbers went down (2008 Lions and 200749ers) had new OC's and a drastically different offense installed in this years.

[Brandon Lloyd Christmas]

if samuels isnt completely dead id say we trade back, and take the best RT we can, then grab a G or center.

we use samuels, rhinehart, C, thomas, RT next year on the line, and let heyer back everyone up especially if samuels isnt ready.

we need youth in this line, and this is the draft to do it.

but we all know were gonna draft a cornerback and trade all of our picks away for a WR or something stupid.

[Oldskool]

if samuels isnt completely dead id say we trade back, and take the best RT we can, then grab a G or center.

we use samuels, rhinehart, C, thomas, RT next year on the line, and let heyer back everyone up especially if samuels isnt ready.

we need youth in this line, and this is the draft to do it.

but we all know were gonna draft a cornerback and trade all of our picks away for a WR or something stupid.

This year, just like most years, there is a position that has some very great talent in the first round and this year its Tackles. And just like every year, there is a drop between the tier 1 and tier 2 players.

The tier 1 tackles in this years draft (so far, barring injury/combine failures) are:

Andre Smith, OT, Alabama

Michael Oher, OT, Ole Miss

Eugene Monroe, OT, Virginia

Jason Smith, OT, Baylor

Eben Britton, OT, Arizona

If these guys are gone by #13, then we should drop back and try to get what we can in return. If any of these gentlemen are there, we have a starting tackle from day 1.

[Ghost of]

Well, Sam baker didn't play that much, so that really shouldn't even count there.

Carolina improved because Delhomme was playing again and they brought in Stewart to be a great tandem with Williams and Muhs is back to bring at least a little attention away from Steve Smith.

Joe Thomas and Cleveland? Well, Derek Anderson actually played well for a spell and Braylon caught most of what was thrown to him. The team didn't play that well this year and was hurt. Now, Thomas is a good LT and they needed that but didn't they regress this year?

[Oldskool]

Well, Sam baker didn't play that much, so that really shouldn't even count there.

Carolina improved because Delhomme was playing again and they brought in Stewart to be a great tandem with Williams and Muhs is back to bring at least a little attention away from Steve Smith.

Joe Thomas and Cleveland? Well, Derek Anderson actually played well for a spell and Braylon caught most of what was thrown to him. The team didn't play that well this year and was hurt. Now, Thomas is a good LT and they needed that but didn't they regress this year?

Sam Baker played 8 games this year, which isn't bad for a rookie and is definitely the Falcons starter at tackle next year.

The Browns lost these players for the season:

LG Eric Steinbach

OL Ryan Tucker

DE Robaire Smith

SS Sean Jones

LB Antwan Peek

OL Lennie Friedman

Not to mention that Winslow had the Staph infection, and Donte' Stallworth's foot injury when he had his bare foot stepped on by someone wearing cleats.

That and the Browns under Savage/Crennel had a history of having one good year and sucking the next.

[Ghost of]

Well, yeah, that's my point. It's not the drafting of the tackle per se that means

It typically means unacceptable performance from that spot has occurred due to either age or simply inferior play. It's often followed with a change in QB at some point in the season, sometimes inaugurated by a change in the coaching staff.

But really, Sam Baker may have played in half the games but if I recall he still only started a handful and was definitely not the reason the Atlanta line performed. One would be 1) Matt Ryan. The other would be 2) Michael Turner and the other 3) Whoever the hell is coaching them and rejuvenating them.

I'm not saying don't pick offensive line (and it appears we could use a good RT) but I can't say any one of these acquisitions (well, perhaps a couple, hard to not see something with Jake Long) is a direct contributor to that offensive success more than other moves made by that particular team.

Again, the drafting of a tackle is often the sign of a change in direction in some way and it does not surprise me to see that a team would show improvement.

It's like looking at teams that took a step back after drafting tackle. Was it injury to the team's running back? Extensive line injuries? Poor QB play or injury? Disruption in the direction of the team (hiring of an inferior coach, hangover from a good previous year?)

All I'm saying is I wouldn't be looking too closely at these numbers.

The one thing you might say is that with our team, while we do need turnover in the next couple of years, a really good offensive lineman that starts right away would really improve the team in a big way and, assuming health, might help more than it would help some other teams.

[Enter Apotheosis]

Correlation != Causation

[illone]

Football is a team game.

In reality I think all this proves is that all the good tackles are taken early in the draft.

[PlayAction]

Correlation != Causation

Did you just come out of Statistics class? We know that correlation doesn't prove causation. But sometimes things are correlated because there is causation. The only OL that the Skins should use a first round pick on is OT. So if one is there when the Skins pick then they should take the player and forget about trading down. Top tier OT's (ranked at draft time) don't slide very far. The highest rated will be gone if the Skins trade down. IMO a quality tackle is the highest need on the OL.

If the rookie is good enough to pay LT even better. I'd love to improve the RT position up to Samuel's level. We can keep the LG for another year. I wish I knew whether the coaches felt like Rinehart can take over a starting position. He could compete at RG.