A direct correlation in drafting a 1st round OT and immediate offensive improvement

[str8jacket]

great post. Hopefully we do get the guy who can at least be the man in a couple years if not immediately.

[Oldfan]

Thank you for the effort that went into this fine post.

I think NFL teams recognize the value of the left OT especially. Months ago, I saw a salary-by-position chart showing the left OT as second only to QBs.

[ldsdbomber]

how many teams that didnt draft an OT also improved?

how many improving teams were poor again the year AFTER, as it seems that teams go up and down much more frequently than in days of old, probably as a result of FA.

I wish we would draft some lineman but you can't just say 1st round OT = improvement unless you do proper analysis on it, and what the other teams did, and how the teams did over several seasons.

[Oldfan]

how many teams that didnt draft an OT also improved?

how many improving teams were poor again the year AFTER, as it seems that teams go up and down much more frequently than in days of old, probably as a result of FA.

I wish we would draft some lineman but you can't just say 1st round OT = improvement unless you do proper analysis on it, and what the other teams did, and how the teams did over several seasons.

I'm sure that the original poster understands that his stats aren't the final word on the topic. However, results that one-sided certainly can't be dismissed as statistically insignificant even on their own.

[#98QBKiller]

Also, the Panthers drafted Jordan Gross in 2003 and went on to face the Patriots in the Super Bowl that season

[DWinzit]

Interesting find. I doubt there is another position you could say this with over a 3 year period.

[jrfriedm]

This is very interesting. However, while I think that the Redskins need to address the O-line I think that they need to address the Guard postition more than the Tackle.

[SonnyJ]

Correlation != Causation

It does when it jibes with what the throngs of "personnel geniuses" on ES want to have happen.

[End2round2sanders]

Defensive lineman takin rounds 1-3 since 2006

Year ROund Pick Name team Starts sacks college

1 2008 1 2 Chris Long DE STL 2008 2008 15 4.0 Virginia

2 2008 1 5 Glenn Dorsey DT KAN 2008 2008 16 1.0 LSU

4 2008 1 7 Sedrick Ellis DT NOR 2008 2008 13 4.0 USC

5 2008 1 8 Derrick Harvey DE JAX 2008 2008 11 1 3.5 Florida

6 2008 1 28 Lawrence Jackson DE SEA 2008 2008 12 2.0 USC

7 2008 1 29 Kentwan Balmer DT SFO 2008 2008 10 North Carolina

8 2008 2 32 Phillip Merling DE MIA 2008 2008 14 1 2.0 Clemson

10 2008 2 50 Calais Campbell DE ARI 2008 2008 0 15 Miami (FL)

11 2008 2 52 Quentin Groves DE JAX 2008 2008 10 2.5 Auburn

12 2008 2 54 Jason Jones DE TEN 2008 2008 12 5.0 Eastern Michigan

13 2008 3 66 Kendall Langford DE MIA 2008 2008 15 2.0 Hampton

17 2008 3 90 Marcus Harrison DT CHI 2008 2008 13 2.0 Arkansas

18 2007 1 4 Gaines Adams DE TAM 2007 2008 29 2 12.5 Clemson

19 2007 1 8 Jamaal Anderson DE ATL 2007 2008 1 27 2.0 Arkansas

20 2007 1 10 Amobi Okoye DT HOU 2007 2008 1 28 6.5 Louisville

21 2007 1 13 Adam Carriker DE STL 2007 2008 1 27 2.0 Nebraska

22 2007 1 16 Justin Harrell DT GNB 2007 2008 11 Tennessee

23 2007 1 17 Jarvis Moss DE DEN 2007 2008 13 3.5 Florida

24 2007 1 26 Anthony Spencer DE DAL 2007 2008 0 0 0 28 4.5 Purdue

25 2007 2 33 Alan Branch DT ARI 2007 2008 0 0 0 15 Michigan

26 2007 2 46 LaMarr Woodley DE PIT 2007 2008 0 0 0 28 1 15.5 Michigan

27 2007 2 54 Turk McBride DT KAN 2007 2008 0 0 0 25 1.0 Tennessee

28 2007 2 56 Tim Crowder DE DEN 2007 2008 0 0 0 15 4.0 Texas

29 2007 2 57 Victor Abiamiri DE PHI 2007 2008 0 0 0 14 2.0 Notre Dame

Rk Year Rnd Pick Pos Tm From To AP1 PB St G Int Sk College/Univ

30 2007 2 58 Ikaika Alama-Francis DE DET 2007 2008 0 0 0 16 1.0 Hawaii

31 2007 2 62 Dan Bazuin DE CHI 0 0 0 Central Michigan

32 2007 3 65 Quentin Moses DE OAK 2007 2008 0 0 0 9 1.5 Georgia

33 2007 3 81 Jay Alford DT NYG 2007 2008 0 0 0 27 3.5 Penn State

34 2007 3 82 Tank Tyler DT KAN 2007 2008 0 0 0 29 North Carolina State

35 2007 3 83 Charles Johnson DE CAR 2007 2008 0 0 0 15 6.0 Georgia

36 2007 3 85 Brandon Mebane DT SEA 2007 2008 0 0 1 31 7.5 California

37 2007 3 91 Mario Henderson DT OAK 2007 2008 0 0 0 2 Florida State

38 2007 3 97 Ray McDonald DE SFO 2007 2008 0 0 0 21 2.0 Florida

39 2007 3 98 Quinn Pit**** DT IND 2007 2007 0 0 0 9 1.5 Ohio State

40 2006 1 1 Mario Williams DE HOU 2006 2008 0 0 2 48 30.5 North Carolina State

41 2006 1 12 Haloti Ngata DT BAL 2006 2008 0 0 2 48 3 5.0 Oregon

42 2006 1 13 Kamerion Wimbley DE CLE 2006 2008 0 0 2 48 1 20.0 Florida State

43 2006 1 14 Brodrick Bunkley DT PHI 2006 2008 0 0 1 45 5.0 Florida State

44 2006 1 20 Tamba Hali DE KAN 2006 2008 0 0 2 47 1 18.5 Penn State

45 2006 1 22 Manny Lawson DE SFO 2006 2008 0 0 1 30 1 5.5 North Carolina State

46 2006 1 26 John McCargo DT BUF 2006 2007 0 0 0 21 2.5 North Carolina State

47 2006 1 32 Mathias Kiwanuka DE NYG 2006 2008 0 0 1 41 2 16.5 Boston College

48 2006 2 63 Darryl Tapp DE SEA 2006 2008 0 0 1 47 2 15.5 Virginia Tech

49 2006 3 68 Claude Wroten DT STL 2006 2007 0 0 0 26 1.5 LSU

50 2006 3 71 Chris Gocong DE PHI 2007 2008 0 0 1 32 3.0 Cal Poly-San Luis Obispo

51 2006 3 73 Dusty Dvoracek DT CHI 2007 2008 0 0 0 12 Oklahoma

52 2006 3 91 Frostee Rucker DE CIN 2007 2008 0 0 0 15 1.0 USC

53 2006 3 92 Jason Hatcher DE DAL 2006 2008 0 0 0 39 5.5 Grambling State

I see alot more serviceable Dlineman in these past 3 drafts then O lineman

[Skins PR]

I see alot more serviceable Dlineman in these past 3 drafts then O lineman

Which would mean that quality defensive linemen can be had in the 2nd and 3rd rounds. Just not by us...

[e16bball]

Just to add a few more to the good research.

Jordan Gross: 30th, 31st (2002) --> 15th, 16th (2003)

George Foster: 7th, 3rd (2002) --> 10th, 7th (2003)

Kwame Harris: 13th. 8th (2002) --> 9th, 5th (2003)

Robert Gallery: 26th, 25th (2003) --> 18th, 17th (2004)

Vernon Carey: 17th, 24th (2003) --> 28th, 29th (2004)

Jammal Brown: 14th, 15th (2004) --> 31st, 20th (2005)

Alex Barron: 19th, 6th (2004) --> 11th, 9th (2005)

D'Brickashaw Ferguson: 29th, 31st (2005) --> 18th, 25th (2006)

[TimmySmith]

2008 Draft:

#1 Miami Dolphins - Jake Long (28st ranked offense ➞ 12th ranked offense) (16 starts)

#12 Denver Broncos - Ryan Clady (11 ➞ 2) (16 starts)

#14 Chicago Bears - Chris Williams (27 ➞ 26) (0 starts)

#15 Kansas City Chiefs - Branden Albert (31 ➞ 24) (15 starts)

#17 Detroit Lions - Gosder Cherilus (19 ➞ 30) (13 starts)

#19 Carolina Panthers - Jeff Otah (29 ➞ 10) (12 starts)

#21 Atlanta Falcons - Sam Baker (23 ➞ 6) (5 starts)

#26 Houston Texans - Duane Brown (14 ➞ 3) (16 starts)

2007 Draft:

#3 Cleveland Browns - #3 OT Joe Thomas (31 ➞ 8) (16 starts)

#5 Arizona Cardinals - #5 OT Levi Brown (18 ➞ 12) (11 starts)

#28 San Francisco - #28 OT Joe Staley (26 ➞ 32) (16 starts)

2006 Draft:

#4 New York Jets - OT D'Brickashaw Ferguson (31 ➞ 25) (16 starts)

I like the research. I do not necessarily buy your conclusion.

12 picks out of 96 were OTs. If you throw out all who were drafted top 5 (the Skins certainly do not have a pick this low), and concentrate on the mid to late guys you have 8 picks. Of those 8, 3 teams show no improvement. So now you have 5, all taken in the 2008 draft. So really, it's 5 guys out of 96 who were drafted and their team shows improvement. (I won't talk about Carolina already having a good team, and Atlanta having a new Coach and QB). Sounds like a stretch.

So drafting an OT in the top 5 appears to be solid. After that, it's debatable.

[Rufus T Firefly]

Yeah, I applaud you for research and all, but like others, I don't really buy it. I mean, looking at some of this year's biggest success stories you are using:

Atlanta- Baker didn't play most of the year. Ryan and Turner are the obvious reasons for the turnaround.

Miami- Brought in Pannington, Fasano, Justin Smiley. Davone Bess had a nice rookie year. Ronnie Brown was healthy. The O-Line was considered by most to be the team's weakest unit.

Carolina- Got Delhomme back, brought in Mushin Muhammed, drafted Jonathan Stewart. Shook up whole O-Line, not just adding Otah.

Houston- Drafted Steve Slaton, got more health from Schaub. Line actually gave up 10 more sacks from previous year (22-->32).

Really, in any of those cases, it's at best a stretch to say that the rookie Tackle was the reason for the improvement. There's just too much using of coincidence to draw a conclusion here.

None of which is to say that we shouldn't draft a T, or it's not really important. But that doesn't mean that shaky reasoning should be used to justify it.

[artmonkforHOF]

I love the research. There is no guarantee that we would get better, but I like the logic.

Now the trick is to get 12 teams to pass on Eugene Monroe, orthe 2 Smith's, I am not sold on Oher as of yet.

[Never4get#21]

Good stuff OP. Regardless of the statistics we have to draft a RT and a Center in this years draft. We have should have some depth at guard if Rhino works out and Jansen moves inside.

[Smoot Point Really]

I think your list proves the value of getting a good QB or RB more than simply drafting an OL. Just about each team you mentioned upgraded their QB and/or RB positions or had a young QB get more seasoning.

[addicted]

Send this to Vinny and lets go improve the line. Love the research, grade A+ quality stuff here

[Enter Apotheosis]

Did you just come out of Statistics class? We know that correlation doesn't prove causation. But sometimes things are correlated because there is causation.

Never taken a statistics class. Either way, the depth of my response mirrored the depth of the OP's research.

[Forever21]

If it wasn't for the 17 will be in the HoF thread I would vote this best thread today.

Fantastic research. Obviously with so many things to consider this has to be taken with a grain of salt - as ALL stats do.

But it does seem to support the idea that football is won in the trenches and through line play.

Good call.

[Laron Burgundy]

2008 Draft:

#1 Miami Dolphins - Jake Long (28st ranked offense ➞ 12th ranked offense) (16 starts)

#12 Denver Broncos - Ryan Clady (11 ➞ 2) (16 starts)

#14 Chicago Bears - Chris Williams (27 ➞ 26) (0 starts)

#15 Kansas City Chiefs - Branden Albert (31 ➞ 24) (15 starts)

#17 Detroit Lions - Gosder Cherilus (19 ➞ 30) (13 starts)

#19 Carolina Panthers - Jeff Otah (29 ➞ 10) (12 starts)

#21 Atlanta Falcons - Sam Baker (23 ➞ 6) (5 starts)

#26 Houston Texans - Duane Brown (14 ➞ 3) (16 starts)

2007 Draft:

#3 Cleveland Browns - #3 OT Joe Thomas (31 ➞ 8) (16 starts)

#5 Arizona Cardinals - #5 OT Levi Brown (18 ➞ 12) (11 starts)

#28 San Francisco - #28 OT Joe Staley (26 ➞ 32) (16 starts)

2006 Draft:

#4 New York Jets - OT D'Brickashaw Ferguson (31 ➞ 25) (16 starts)

This is pretty misleading. Let's work backwards and see what else changed in these offenses.

2006 Jets got a new qb and a new rb.

2007 Cardinals got a new qb (actually an old one but Warner played more than Leinart)

2007 Browns got a new qb and a new rb

2008 Texans got a healthy qb and wr (instead of both missing half the year) and a new rb

2008 Falcons: new qb, new rb

2008 Panthers: healthy qb, new rb

2008 Chiefs: new qb, healthy rb (for the most part)

2008 Broncos: healthy qb (diabetes), new rb

2008 Dolphins: new qb, healthy rb

I think you see a pattern. The broncos are really about the only team that it is debatable on. The rest either got a new starter at a skill position who was much better than the one they replaced, or they got back a guy who missed half a season or more the year prior. Meanwhile, if we look at the two teams who did worse we see they both lost their starting qb from the year before. By your voodoo math I could say that every team who drafted a first round defensive tackle improved on offense. Let's see how that turns out:

2008 Chiefs #5 Glenn Dorsey- 31-24

2008 Saints #7 Sedrick Ellis- 4-1

2007 Texans #10 Amobi Okoye- 28-14

2007 Packers #16 Justin Harrell- 9-2

2006 Ravens #12 Haloti Ngata- 24-17

2006 Eagles #14 Broderick Bunkley- 19-2

2006 Bills #26 John McCargo- 28-30 (but they averaged 9 more yards and 2 more points per game)

So yes, we should draft a defensive tackle to improve our offense. My stats are irrefutable.

[Ghost of]

Laron Burgundy just finished off what remained of the OP's position.

It's not that a good offensive line isn't an advantage but 1) new tackles should be able to contribute effectively sooner but not all of those guys taken are equal 2) the time needed to make that improvement may not show up for 2 years, thus negating measuring a one-year statistical ranking change 3) as stated before (by me) there are other changes that often occur on teams that are taking an OT in the early rounds of the draft and the specific examples are replete with MORE SIGNIFICANT personnel changes (or health improvements in their key starters) that would suggest that a decent QB is more important to offensive improvement, along with a developing RB or good acquisition RB.

[RenegadeTK]

Interesting post.... i'm a firm believer that you have to balance team needs with the best player available. if there is a stout DE or DT, i think we should go that route

[Oldfan]

This is pretty misleading. Let's work backwards and see what else changed in these offenses.

2006 Jets got a new qb and a new rb.

2007 Cardinals got a new qb (actually an old one but Warner played more than Leinart)

2007 Browns got a new qb and a new rb

2008 Texans got a healthy qb and wr (instead of both missing half the year) and a new rb

2008 Falcons: new qb, new rb

2008 Panthers: healthy qb, new rb

2008 Chiefs: new qb, healthy rb (for the most part)

2008 Broncos: healthy qb (diabetes), new rb

2008 Dolphins: new qb, healthy rb

I think you see a pattern. The broncos are really about the only team that it is debatable on. The rest either got a new starter at a skill position who was much better than the one they replaced, or they got back a guy who missed half a season or more the year prior. Meanwhile, if we look at the two teams who did worse we see they both lost their starting qb from the year before. more points per game)[/color]

1) How did you logically rule out the possibility that the stats support both the QB and OT factors? That other factors can be argued to contribute in every situation is a given. We didn't need your stats to prove that.

2) There is far more subjectivity built into your nine-team sample than the OP has in his 12-team sample. You decided which QB was new, which healthy, and which RB or QB to count where multiple players were involved.

[Ghost of]

1) How did you logically rule out the possibility that the stats support both the QB and OT factors? That other factors can be argued to contribute in every situation is a given. We didn't need your stats to prove that.

2) There is far more subjectivity built into your nine-team sample than the OP has in his 12-team sample. You decided which QB was new, which healthy, and which RB or QB to count where multiple players were involved.

1) I'll let Laron give his official answer but I would guess there are plenty of situations where OT was drafted and no other significant QB change made that there was no improvement

OR as I stated, the drafting of an OT really high is a sign of some other significant change in the team's structure or offensive system or coaching.

2) How is there more subjectivity because of three teams fewer? And it's not difficult to determine if a QB is new. He either wasn't playing or wasn't on the team. Delhomme was hurt much of last year. The Panthers weren't exactly a historically bad offense, so it's not as if any improvement has to be attributed to this one pick as opposed to Delhomme getting back to form (to some extent, at least.) Either a RB was playing or he wasn't and/or wasn't on the team. Again, no subjectivity involved here?

3) why are you assuming that in ONE OFFSEASON, the selection of a tackle makes that much difference? Who is being subjective here? It's called 'additional data' or, at worst, context. All we are given is rankings, which doesn't even give us offensive results like ypg, ypa, TDs, ppg, red zone etc.

It would be idiotic to look simply at the DRAFTING (not the play or the awards or all-rookie selections of that draftee) of an offensive tackle as leading to offensive improvement, so I don't see the issue with posts made to counter the OP. Especially, since he used "DIRECT" and "IMMEDIATE" which is a pretty strong (and somewhat erroneous or overly general) couple of assertions that scream for refutation.

[stp240]

Hail yea!

i LOVE this post!

I think it should be said that while doing these stats, its pretty obvious to consider WHO the team drafted, and what kinda career they turn out in th NFL.

But i agree with the absolute correlation with an upgrade at Tackle and an improvement in offensive production.