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Great article on first round WRs.

Skins4ever1

By Skins4ever1
in The Stadium

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elkabong82

elkabong82

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Very good article. WRs busting out more often than not in the 1st is very true, and I like the blurb about WRs faring well coming out of the 3rd round. Vinny was the one who selected TO in the 3rd, just food for thought.

I broke down all WRs taken in the bottom half of the 1st round since 2002, and based upon a subjective ranking of 1-5, the success rate was 27%. I did the same thing for the 3rd round, and the success rate was actually higher, at 44% or so. Check the link in my sig for details, the WR post is on the first page.

Completely agree WRs in this years class shouldn't go in the 1st, but they will. I really don't believe WR will be taken by us in the 1st though. Vinny has said he doesn't like the 1st round guys, that there are good ones in the 2nd and 3rd rounds. Not to mention the likelihood of all the BPA that are ahead of WR being gone by 21 is slim.

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ktball74

ktball74

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"Moss, Holt and Wayne all helped the Vikings, Rams and Colts respectively right from the go, but they are more of the exception."

That statement isn't that true. It took Wayne until his 4th year to really break out. The Colts and the rest of the league didn't know if we was going to pan out.

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Skins4ever1

Skins4ever1

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"Moss, Holt and Wayne all helped the Vikings, Rams and Colts respectively right from the go, but they are more of the exception."

That statement isn't that true. It took Wayne until his 4th year to really break out. The Colts and the rest of the league didn't know if we was going to pan out.

You're right, but you know why it looked like they helped them right away? Becaue they played next to Carter, Bruce and Harrison.

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sens11

sens11

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Living in this area you hear and see Mark Eckel pretty frequently. He's knows his stuff.

I think this stat is pretty staggering..Ouch!

"From 1998-2003, 22 wide receivers were taken in the first round, 11 of them are already out of football, and only three are still with the same team that drafted them."

but when you look at the names..;)

"The seven Pro Bowl wide receivers taken in the past 10 first rounds include Moss (1998), Tory Holt (1999), Reggie Wayne (2001), Javon Walker (2002), Andre Johnson (2003), Larry Fitzgerald (2004) and Roy Williams (2004)"

Fact is....it's about finding the right talent for your team. I would be shocked if the Skins took a WR in the 1st. Absolutely shcoked!

However, I wouldn't be shocked to see them trade for one though on draft day. I just hope they don't go that route.

This team needs to get help on the lines big time. With 9 picks in this years draft there is no better time to add some depth to the squad as well address other needs.

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Cpt.Chaos47

Cpt.Chaos47

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I definately think taking Jordy Nelson in the 3rd is our best option. I read an article a while back the was basically the same as this one, but had to do with CB's, I wish I could find it again. Basically what it said was the reverse of this one. That taking cornerbacks after the 2nd round most often doesn't pan out. They used the Lions as an example. The Lions have drafted 5 to 6 CB's in rounds 3-7 over the last few years and none of them have panned out. I think Branden Albert in the 1st, CB in the 2nd, Jordy Nelson in the 3rd and best Dlineman with the 3rd round compensatory.

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PlayAction

PlayAction

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If Vinny takes a WR with the 21st selection he is not the man for the job.

Vinny has said there are really no top WRs in this draft. At best he rates the top WRs at the bottom of the first. There are a lot of second and third round ranked WRs that are pretty good. I hope the Skins continue to follow the mantra of not overpaying (or over drafting) for players. Get good value in each round.

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Skinsinparadise

Skinsinparadise

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I definately think taking Jordy Nelson in the 3rd is our best option. I read an article a while back the was basically the same as this one, but had to do with CB's, I wish I could find it again. Basically what it said was the reverse of this one. That taking cornerbacks after the 2nd round most often doesn't pan out. They used the Lions as an example. The Lions have drafted 5 to 6 CB's in rounds 3-7 over the last few years and none of them have panned out. I think Branden Albert in the 1st, CB in the 2nd, Jordy Nelson in the 3rd and best Dlineman with the 3rd round compensatory.

I am into Nelson but I think we'd have to do what McShay has us do in his mock and take him with our 2nd. Keep in mind, that we have a late third -- Nelson is project by some as a late 2, early 3 pick.

Cerrato said in an article on Redskins.com that cornerback looks good late 1st, early 2nd. So playing off of that, we might go CB in the first. I doubt now Albert is going to be available at 21.

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texasthunder

texasthunder

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Very good article. WRs busting out more often than not in the 1st is very true, and I like the blurb about WRs faring well coming out of the 3rd round. Vinny was the one who selected TO in the 3rd, just food for thought.

I broke down all WRs taken in the bottom half of the 1st round since 2002, and based upon a subjective ranking of 1-5, the success rate was 27%. I did the same thing for the 3rd round, and the success rate was actually higher, at 44% or so. Check the link in my sig for details, the WR post is on the first page.

Completely agree WRs in this years class shouldn't go in the 1st, but they will. I really don't believe WR will be taken by us in the 1st though. Vinny has said he doesn't like the 1st round guys, that there are good ones in the 2nd and 3rd rounds. Not to mention the likelihood of all the BPA that are ahead of WR being gone by 21 is slim.

Great article, thanks for posting the info.

I am also a Jordy fan, but reserve judgement to see how Kelly does on his private workout. Also, I still think Jordy goes in the second round, so maybe if we trade down from #21, and get another second and another third, it will be ok to take him in the 2nd round.

Boy, wait till all the Sweed nuthuggers see this article-:rolleyes:

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tone_dubbz

tone_dubbz

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Very good article. WRs busting out more often than not in the 1st is very true, and I like the blurb about WRs faring well coming out of the 3rd round. Vinny was the one who selected TO in the 3rd, just food for thought.

I broke down all WRs taken in the bottom half of the 1st round since 2002, and based upon a subjective ranking of 1-5, the success rate was 27%. I did the same thing for the 3rd round, and the success rate was actually higher, at 44% or so. Check the link in my sig for details, the WR post is on the first page.

Completely agree WRs in this years class shouldn't go in the 1st, but they will. I really don't believe WR will be taken by us in the 1st though. Vinny has said he doesn't like the 1st round guys, that there are good ones in the 2nd and 3rd rounds. Not to mention the likelihood of all the BPA that are ahead of WR being gone by 21 is slim.

Yeah I think Brandon Marshall came out in the 3rd back in '05. He's turning out to be a good receiver.

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mistertim

mistertim

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Great article, thanks for posting the info.

I am also a Jordy fan, but reserve judgement to see how Kelly does on his private workout. Also, I still think Jordy goes in the second round, so maybe if we trade down from #21, and get another second and another third, it will be ok to take him in the 2nd round.

Boy, wait till all the Sweed nuthuggers see this article-:rolleyes:

What things do you see in Kelly that makes you reserve judgement? Just curious.

Oh wait...no rational explanations allowed here...

JORDY NUTHUGGER!!

KELLY NUTHUGGER!!

:rolleyes:

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illone

illone

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Another illogical approach to drafting strategy.

What happened last year or the year before has no bearing on this year's draft class.

Kelley, Sweed, Thomas and DeSean Jackson could all be stars in the NFL which totally blows this theory about draft history out of the water.

Busts happen in all rounds in every draft. The best bet is to draft as well as you can with what's available. Factoring in other teams judgments or lack thereof in regards to drafting prospects is a horrible strategy.

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Bantu

Bantu

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I agree that the WR talent in this year's draft is not very good.

However, I would never shy away from drafting a WR in the first round if they merit that high of a pick. Always draft BPA, and not by position or need.

There are a lot of people on these boards that are hesitant to draft a WR or DL because of the so-called bust factors or that they take too long to develop. Besides RB and LB there are not a lot of positions that do not take awhile for rookies to adjust to so we must be patient with whomever we draft.

I personally hope we go DL or OL in the first rounds because this draft is loaded with middle tier WR and DB's that we can grab in later rounds.

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Spitfire71

Spitfire71

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Another illogical approach to drafting strategy.

What happened last year or the year before has no bearing on this year's draft class.

Kelley, Sweed, Thomas and DeSean Jackson could all be stars in the NFL which totally blows this theory about draft history out of the water.

Busts happen in all rounds in every draft. The best bet is to draft as well as you can with what's available. Factoring in other teams judgments or lack thereof in regards to drafting prospects is a horrible strategy.

By definition, this can't be true. The 'bust' label is based on expectation (or one's failing to meet them), which correlates directly with how high they draft someone.

30 Catches

420 Yards

14 YPC

4 TDs

Let's just take those numbers. If you're getting that kind of production - over a period of three years or so with this as the average - from a guy you take in the third or fourth round, that's probably par for the course because you're probably expecting something along those lines, assuming, he's a #3 option or something.

But if you got him in the 6th or the 7th round, chances are he was originally a camp body that managed to make it through cuts, and for a 7th-rounder, those numbers look pretty damn good because you were probably not even expecting him to make the team.

If you drafted the guy in the first round, he was probably drafted to address a need and/or to fill a starter role. These kind of numbers from a 1st round from whom you were expecting a lot qualify as a bust.

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BadKarma

BadKarma

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From 1998-2003, 22 wide receivers were taken in the first round, 11 of them are already out of football, and only three are still with the same team that drafted them.

Enough said.

I really hope Cerrato isn't the dope that everyone thinks he is but I just don't trust him to stay away from drafting Zorn a WR.

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