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Snow on the way!! 1-2 possibly 3 inches for Wednesday!

Ji

By Ji
in The Tailgate

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Ji

Ji

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If it doesn't happen, will you just stop the madness? No offense, really- but you've been a waste of time so far. :)

how so? I mention threats in the long range...and then I make my eventual forecast. This is my first time actually forecasting measurable snow this year

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Ji

Ji

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You said "Bank on it." That carries tremendous significance -- care to make a wager on it? Pick a specific location in the Washington area -- any location -- where you think there will be 1"-3" of snow. I GUARANTEE there will be NO MEASURABLE SNOW at that location. I believe the air will be too dry to snow and too warm by the time it becomes saturated. Lots of virga followed by a cold and depressing rain.

If you're right, I will never post again on Extremeskins.

If you are wrong, you must never post another weather prediction on Extremeskins.

Do we have a bet?

fine...Your going to really miss Extremeskins.com though. Buh bye

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Chachie

Chachie

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how so? I mention threats in the long range...and then I make my eventual forecast. This is my first time actually forecasting measurable snow this year

I apologize for putting it that way. I know you are just trying to do a service to us. You have been dreadfully wrong on every call I've seen you make here though. I can't and should not tell you to stop. It's your thang.

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portisizzle

portisizzle

Posted
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You said "Bank on it." That carries tremendous significance -- care to make a wager on it? Pick a specific location in the Washington area -- any location -- where you think there will be 1"-3" of snow. I GUARANTEE there will be NO MEASURABLE SNOW at that location. I believe the air will be too dry to snow and too warm by the time it becomes saturated. Lots of virga followed by a cold and depressing rain.

If you're right, I will never post again on Extremeskins.

If you are wrong, you must never post another weather prediction on Extremeskins.

Do we have a bet?

fine...Your going to really miss Extremeskins.com though. Buh bye

oh my

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Head

Head

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Posted
I apologize for putting it that way. I know you are just trying to do a service to us. You have been dreadfully wrong on every call I've seen you make here though. I can't and should not tell you to stop. It's your thang.
Look at it like this.....he's no more wrong than the idiots on tv that get paid bank for their bogus predictions on a daily basis :laugh:

Weather is unpredictable, period. Get over it and move on. I've been an overly obsessed weather nerd for years, and have found only one thing to be a guarantee in weather - it's gonna do whatever the **** it wants to do, PERIOD.

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Sticksboi05

Sticksboi05

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Look at it like this.....he's no more wrong than the idiots on tv that get paid bank for their bogus predictions on a daily basis :laugh:

Weather is unpredictable, period. Get over it and move on. I've been an overly obsessed weather nerd for years, and have found only one thing to be a guarantee in weather - it's gonna do whatever the **** it wants to do, PERIOD.

Thank you! Finally someone who understands.

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Buddha

Buddha

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fine...Your going to really miss Extremeskins.com though. Buh bye

You need to pick a location. And since I don't live in the DC area anymore, perhaps we can get a member to volunteer to post a photo of that location with/without snow after the clipper passes.

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jbooma

jbooma

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You said "Bank on it." That carries tremendous significance -- care to make a wager on it? Pick a specific location in the Washington area -- any location -- where you think there will be 1"-3" of snow. I GUARANTEE there will be NO MEASURABLE SNOW at that location. I believe the air will be too dry to snow and too warm by the time it becomes saturated. Lots of virga followed by a cold and depressing rain.

If you're right, I will never post again on Extremeskins.

If you are wrong, you must never post another weather prediction on Extremeskins.

Do we have a bet?

It aint worth it even a blind squirrel can find a nut every once and a while

ok JI has spoken 1-3 inches

The WEATHER RUMBLE HAS BEGUN, Johnny what is your call for this storm

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mbqbfan

mbqbfan

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Good thing im not flying from Boston to DC on Wednesday.

****. :mad:

I will be flying to RI tomorrow for my grandma's funeral and probably fly outta Boston on Thursday. I've already packed the long johns...burr...I'm not looking forwardto the New England cold & snow (nor stand out in the freezing cold), but have to be there for my family.

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Toe Jam

Toe Jam

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We're arguing over the weather now?

Cool. I needed some hilarity this morning.

I don't even live in D.C. and I can tell you that you're in for a lot of virga. The air will simply be too dry and these clippers rarely make it over the mountains. You're kidding yourselves if you think 1-3 inches is in order. I would say more around an inch and a half if that.

I'm not seeing anything that would really force this clipper to jump the mountains and survive. Don't be surprised to see a Winter Weather Advisory issued. If things change, there is always a chance of a Snow Advisory.

Weather is some unpredictable stuff. This is basic and common knowledge. I just wouldn't get my hopes up if I were you. Temps look to be marginal during the main bulk of precipitation. I'd say about 34 to 36 degrees unless you get some good evaporational cooling going on. With the air so dry, that certainly is possible. Lower the dewpoint the better shot you have at evap. cooling taking the temp to the lower 30's. But as it stands now, I don't think you'll see much accumalation at 34 to 36 degrees.

This is the latest QPF forecast from the HPC:

fill_98qwbg.gif

Notice that in the Maryland/D.C area it is highly unlikely you will get more than half an inch of QPF in any one location. The average rain/snow ratio is about 1 inch for every 10 inches of snow. This is highly dependent upon the temps. aloft. I don't see extremely cold air aloft so I don't think this will be one of those wierd times when very low QPF belts out a large amount of snow.

Latest forecast of 4+ Inches from the HPC for your area:

day2_psnow_gt_04.gif

Again you can see the current thinking is that there will be enough dry air to limit this event. Also notice how the mountain areas are likely to receive the brunt of this clipper. As with 99.8 percent of clippers in December, it will struggle to get the main energy farther than West Virginia. I also don't think temperatures will be right in the metro area. Unless, like stated previously, you get some serious Evap. cooling going on, this will be a miss for the D.C./Maryland area.

Final line I'm taking is MAYBE an inch to an inch and a half. Enjoy. It's more than what I'll be getting down here in Roanoke.

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Skins24

Skins24

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You're kidding yourselves if you think 1-3 inches is in order.

You're right...latest models have 2-4 :laugh:

Too dry and virga??

Sure the first half hour to hour, but that's with ever system that comes through.

The mountains and dry air won't be a problem. Just how strong is the clipper.

We've had lake effect flurries yesterday and today with MUCH drier air and snows off the lakes rarely ever make it over the mountains.

Edit: written before your edit. You give the mountains too much credit. Weak clippers usually don't even make it to the mountains, if they do they're usually strong enough to cross.

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Toe Jam

Toe Jam

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You're right...latest models have 2-4 :laugh:

Too dry and virga??

Sure the first half hour to hour, but that's with ever system that comes through.

The mountains and dry air won't be a problem. Just how strong is the clipper.

We've had lake effect flurries yesterday and today with MUCH drier air and snows off the lakes rarely ever make it over the mountains.

You are grasping at straws.

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Toe Jam

Toe Jam

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Posted
You're right...latest models have 2-4 :laugh:

Too dry and virga??

Sure the first half hour to hour, but that's with ever system that comes through.

The mountains and dry air won't be a problem. Just how strong is the clipper.

We've had lake effect flurries yesterday and today with MUCH drier air and snows off the lakes rarely ever make it over the mountains.

Edit: written before your edit. You give the mountains too much credit. Weak clippers usually don't even make it to the mountains, if they do they're usually strong enough to cross.

Precisely. I should have worded it better.

I just don't see enough energy to push it to the limit.

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Toe Jam

Toe Jam

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So is the NWS then....

They have a habit of doing that. Remember that they are responsible for putting out the advisories, warnings, etc. I can see why they would rather be safe than sorry.

What NWS Meteorologist wants to say minimal accumalation and not put out a Winter WX Advisory or something along those lines and then get burned? Lots of people depend on them. If there is the smallest chance of disturbing weather then they will milk it for what it's worth.

We know weather is unpredictable. There is a chance for anything to happen.

I am just expressing my opinion that history does not favor this being more than a minimal snowfall.

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