2017 Comprehensive NFL Draft Thread

[Momma There Goes That Man]

Scot also said fixing defense was easy and then proceeded to put Dora the Explorer bandaids over it for 2 seasons. 

 

So I am curious to see what happens  with the defense post-Scot

[Skinsinparadise]

6 hours ago, Gibbs Hog Heaven said:

Even though it's from the Cowboys, I think y'all will appreciate this if you have a spare hour or so as Rick Gosselin's on who continues to be the most connected journalist in America and the Don of accurate draft information. Even if he sadly no longer does mocks. Older guys who've been invested in the draft for a long time here will know his name. Amazing how all 32 teams turn to him for info in making key draft decisions. That's some top respect on an old-school journalist with credible sources he protects. 

 

Throw in Dan Brugler, my personal go-to draft geek and one of the very few I take any heed of (If I were a GM I'd be trying to get him on my staff scouting. Or at the very least consulting) as he's one of the VERY few guys out there with both his own mind that he sticks to on his evals and credible information who doesn't bounce off everyone else or what's currently popular. And a very credible and respected ex-Packers/ Eagles/ Cowboys among others scout Bryan Broaddus (who I offered up recently in here for people to tweet on a lot of clubs concerns on Fournettes love of football but they turned it down as the easier option to dismiss but that's another story), and you've got one heck of a listen. 

 

Fascinating on the media influence on the draft, and who to believe at this time of year. Along with the normal top notch prospect talk that goes along with this crew. Some excellent points about the drop off in edge rushers too as regards the 'Skins if you wait until the second round. @clskinsfan- Love that they agree with me McDowell's a top 5 talent in this draft. . (Sorry bud. Couldn't resist.). But then there's the 'taking plays off' thang .....

 

http://www.dallascowboys.com/video/2017/04/20/draft-show-1-week-til-draft-day

 

Hail. 

 

 

Just watched it.  Gosselin brings up a good point in it which is take your pass rusher early in this draft, the corners later.   I know all about Gosselin, he's legendary from being closest media guy to being accurate on their mock before the draft.  As for Brugler, he backs some of my strongest positions on this thread so he must be right. 

 

Brugler loves Reddick.  He loves Cook, too and actually has him as his top rated running back in the draft.  He still digs Reuben Foster and I just noticed he thinks can play Mike MLB.  

 

As for Malik McDowell, he talks up his talent (few draft geeks don't) but the issue with him seems centered on his personality which unless I missed it Brugler doesn't swear by.   McDowell came up on that segment.  Gosselin says you got a problem if you don't have a leader in that locker room and he comes in as the star -- mentioned he'd work well probably if a guy like JJ Watt was already in the locker room.  Brugler loves his talent but admitted he doesn't know what his floor is.

 

On the other hand, I know from other readings he loves Wormley and Wormley has intangibles that apparently are off the charts -- and had similar metrics to McDowell at the combine.  

 

 

 

[fordranger76]

Starting to really like Haason Reddick. The more I watch on him the more impressed I get. Him in the first and Wormley in the second would be a great 1, 2, pick for this draft. I still want McCaffery bad though lol.

[Gregpeck99]

7 hours ago, HTTRDynasty said:

 

No one's "running scared" .  I think we can beat any team regardless.

 

I just personally don't think McDowell will bust.  And Smith will be a beast if he comes back healthy.  I don't care if he hasn't seen the field in 5 years.

Good.  Alot of Draft hype is based upon upon wishful thinking.  At least 30% of first rounders are busts and it gets worse in lower rounds.

 

That's why in 1st ... I like to go BPA all he way!

 

I rather be safe than sorry!  Eliminate the players with flags ... !

 

Grab blue-chippers only.

 

In the middle of the 1st here are the bluest of the blue:

 

Lamp

Jackson

Watt

McCaffrey

Conley

Ross

Njoku

Engram

Mahomes

[Warhead36]

Everyone always talks about trading down but I actually wouldn't mind trading up. We need impact players. I wouldn't give up a 2nd but if we have to give up something like a 4th to move up a few spots to secure someone like Reddick I'd do it.

[Butters20]

With this draft being so high with CB and TE talent, I think we target those in the 3rd and 4th round. Gives them a year to develop under starters and since they are deeper than those positions have been in recent years, you are really drafting a higher level talent. 

 

Something like reddick, wormley/Brantley, CB, then TE/guard would be a nice first 4 rounds 

[Est.1974]

18 minutes ago, Warhead36 said:

Everyone always talks about trading down but I actually wouldn't mind trading up. We need impact players. I wouldn't give up a 2nd but if we have to give up something like a 4th to move up a few spots to secure someone like Reddick I'd do it.

 

Dont like the idea of giving up a 4th to move up to #15 at best. 

 

Like the the idea of moving back to #20 with Denver better for an extra 3rd.

[Mania]

3 hours ago, Gregpeck99 said:

Good.  Alot of Draft hype is based upon upon wishful thinking.  At least 30% of first rounders are busts and it gets worse in lower rounds.

 

That's why in 1st ... I like to go BPA all he way!

 

I rather be safe than sorry!  Eliminate the players with flags ... !

 

Grab blue-chippers only.

 

In the middle of the 1st here are the bluest of the blue:

 

Lamp

Jackson

Watt

McCaffrey

Conley

Ross

Njoku

Engram

Mahomes

Not sure I'd put Ross in this category due to his injury history.  Other than that, he's got some serious Antonio Brown talent.

[DC Lumber Co.]

If you took character completely out of the equation, Mixon blows McCaffrey out of the water as a prospect. He can do everything McCaffrey can do but with the added benefit that he could actually withstand a substantial workload between the tackles unlike McCaffrey. What he brings to the table would actually warrant a 1st round pick because you wouldn't have to take him off of the field. 

[Stormy]

4 hours ago, fordranger76 said:

Starting to really like Haason Reddick. The more I watch on him the more impressed I get. Him in the first and Wormley in the second would be a great 1, 2, pick for this draft. I still want McCaffery bad though lol.

I really like this combo too. Reddick and Wormley would give us a great boost in the front 7, and from two high motor, high character guys, with great athleticism. I fear though, that Reddick may be taken before our pick in the first, and Wormley before we pick in the second. 

[DC Lumber Co.]

1 hour ago, Warhead36 said:

Everyone always talks about trading down but I actually wouldn't mind trading up. We need impact players. I wouldn't give up a 2nd but if we have to give up something like a 4th to move up a few spots to secure someone like Reddick I'd do it.

 

See, the problem I have with this is the notion that you can only get an impact player with a Top-15/1st round pick. With how deep this years class is there will be multiple day-1 starters and impact players well into the 4th round.

 

I'd personally rather trade down and pick multiple players in the meat of this draft before I took a 1st rounder that wasn't a sure thing. 

[seantaylor=god]

44 minutes ago, DC Lumber Co. said:

If you took character completely out of the equation, Mixon blows McCaffrey out of the water as a prospect. He can do everything McCaffrey can do but with the added benefit that he could actually withstand a substantial workload between the tackles unlike McCaffrey. What he brings to the table would actually warrant a 1st round pick because you wouldn't have to take him off of the field. 

Disagree. He's not as much of an impact player on ST and he isn't in the same class as a route runner and WR. You can like one without having to downgrade another. I agree he may give you more on 1st and 2nd down, but we throw the ball so much I'm not even100% sure of that.

[Koolblue13]

Yeah, wouldn't be mad if we traded back twice and ened up out of the first altogether,  but with 3 2s, 3s and 4s.

 

Theres a slew of talent in there and we need all the at bats we can get.

[Gregpeck99]

1 hour ago, SkinsFanMania said:

Not sure I'd put Road in this category due to his injury history.  Other than that, he's got some serious Antonio Brown talent.

Yea ... love to have Road ...his glam, speed, twitchy-ness, great hands and intangibles overcomes injury Flags!

[Morneblade]

25 minutes ago, seantaylor=god said:

Disagree. He's not as much of an impact player on ST and he isn't in the same class as a route runner and WR. You can like one without having to downgrade another. I agree he may give you more on 1st and 2nd down, but we throw the ball so much I'm not even100% sure of that.

 

ST is easy to get. Draft Cam Sutton and you get an upgrade over McCaffery and a slot corner in later rounds. ST is not what you're looking to fill with a 1st round pick. Mixon is a full time RB, McCaffery is not.

 

22 minutes ago, Koolblue13 said:

Yeah, wouldn't be mad if we traded back twice and ened up out of the first altogether,  but with 3 2s, 3s and 4s.

 

Theres a slew of talent in there and we need all the at bats we can get.

 

Yeah, this wouldn't kill me either. We got lots of holes defensively, and we could fill quite a few this way.

[Dark Acre]

15 hours ago, sebestian said:

Totally agree that Line backers success is directly related to the effectiveness of your defensive line.

All defensive success is directly related to the effectiveness of the DL.  That is why it kills me that we don't go back to a 4-3.  There are plenty of guys in this draft who would do well as 4-3 DTs and DEs.  Yeah, I realize we aren't in our base 3-4 a lot (which means, it's not a base), but still....  Go to a 4-3.  Get a 6 man rotation for the line.  We also need to step up DL pressure since we really don't have LBs who can cover.  That's why I like Cunningham.  In the recent past we had a LB who could lay the wood (often getting a flag when doing so to the QB) but who, with one beautiful exception, was horrible against the pass.  I'd take a guy who can tackle without laying wood but who can cover over a guy who just lays wood.  I also want OJ Howard unless a must-have defensive player falls to us (and put the crackpipe down fantasizing over Fournette falling).  Howard's likely BPA at 17, fills a need for a strong, non-OL blocker, and protects against losing Reed to injury, which will happen.

3 hours ago, Gregpeck99 said:

Grab blue-chippers only.

In the middle of the 1st here are the bluest of the blue:

 

Lamp

How much more does Lamp give you in the first that you can't get with another G in the 2nd?  Apparently he's not all that physical which is the last thing we need.  Not getting the Lamp love.

[sebestian]

3 minutes ago, GothSkinsFan said:

All defensive success is directly related to the effectiveness of the DL.  That is why it kills me that we don't go back to a 4-3.  There are plenty of guys in this draft who would do well as 4-3 DTs and DEs.  Yeah, I realize we aren't in our base 3-4 a lot (which means, it's not a base), but still....  Go to a 4-3.  Get a 6 man rotation for the line.  We also need to step up DL pressure since we really don't have LBs who can cover.  That's why I like Cunningham.  In the recent past we had a LB who could lay the wood (often getting a flag when doing so to the QB) but who, with one beautiful exception, was horrible against the pass.  I'd take a guy who can tackle without laying wood but who can cover over a guy who just lays wood.  I also want OJ Howard unless a must-have defensive player falls to us (and put the crackpipe down fantasizing over Fournette falling).  Howard's likely BPA at 17, fills a need for a strong, non-OL blocker, and protects against losing Reed to injury, which will happen.

 

Great post.  This is my question that makes me scratch my head.  We have this knowledge.  It is generally considered accurate regarding defensive live line effectiveness, yet the FO does not see it, and Bruce has been in football his whole life.  I just do not understand.  Is it ego, is it lack of basic principle knowledge.  I do not know.

[Gregpeck99]

7 minutes ago, GothSkinsFan said:

 

How much more does Lamp give you in the first that you can't get with another G in the 2nd?  Apparently he's not all that physical which is the last thing we need.  Not getting the Lamp love.

Lamp is cleaner than an unused hospital sheet.  AND he can play all 3 positions on OL.  Long is FA next year ... Lamp will eventually play center and be all-Pro for a decade. Callahan loves him.

 

And so do I.

[Dark Acre]

2 hours ago, Warhead36 said:

Everyone always talks about trading down but I actually wouldn't mind trading up. We need impact players. I wouldn't give up a 2nd but if we have to give up something like a 4th to move up a few spots to secure someone like Reddick I'd do it.

We've got problems all over the team.  In a deep draft, a 4th can be a starter, if not an important role player.

[The Consigliere]

1 hour ago, DC Lumber Co. said:

If you took character completely out of the equation, Mixon blows McCaffrey out of the water as a prospect. He can do everything McCaffrey can do but with the added benefit that he could actually withstand a substantial workload between the tackles unlike McCaffrey. What he brings to the table would actually warrant a 1st round pick because you wouldn't have to take him off of the field. 

 

I love Mixon as a prospect too but this doesn't really hold up to scrutiny:

40 Yard Dash: Mixon 91st Percentile > McCaffrey 61st Percentile

Burst Score (equally weighted Vertical Leap and Broad Jump: McCaffrey 78th Percentile > Mixon 46th Percentile

Agility Score: McCaffrey 97th Percentile> Mixon 45th Percentile

Bench Press: Mixon 59th Percentile> McCaffrey 0th Percentile (WEAK-10 reps vs Mixon's 21)

SPARQ-x: Mixon 72nd Percentile> McCaffrey 27th Percentile

Barfield Yards Created Data: Mixon >McCaffrey (Mixon finished 1st, McCaffrey finished 7th)

College Dominator (Pct of RB's Total Team Yards and TD's): McCaffrey 98th percentile > Mixon 42nd Percentile (Perine plays a role here)

ROTOVIZ PROSPECT LAB: McCaffrey 78> Mixon 75 http://rotoviz.com/2017/04/2017-rb-prospect-lab-scores-post-combine/?hvid=6AlbPP

 

When you collect all the analytics material and combine data, it's basically a continual pendulum swing between both prospects, with Mixon winning on 5 metrics, and McCaffrey winning on 4. 

 

What makes Mixon a much smarter choice to me is the draft day discount in terms of cost. I don't care about the bad press the pick generates. That's a totally separate non-football issue that should not trump making the team an actual better team. Guys like Chris Culliver are proof positive that the Mixon hysteria is complete bollocks. Nobody even knows who the hell Culliver is since his career has careened off the road, and nobody remembers that he did in running a cyclist off the road, and threatening to run down, crash into, and beat up with brass knuckles the child and parent witnesses in family cars that observed the near manslaughter, and then sealed him into a cul de sac in order to keep him on scene till police arrive, infinitely worse than Mixon. Why? Video tape. That's it. 

 

Well you could get a 20 to 75 to 150 to 200 pick discount on a talent that would normally go top 10-15 overall in a draft. McCaffrey's going to go at around fair market value or maybe a bit over it. Mixon is going at a sharp discount, the scale of which we don't know yet. Mixon makes a lot more sense with that knowledge in tow. I'd much rather have Mixon in round 2, and an excellent defensive asset in round 1, than McCaffrey in round 1 and whatever left at 49. 

 

 

 

 

[Morrison J]

5 round mock I did on another site for the Skins. 

 

17 - Haasson Reddick, LB, Temple. 

49 - Budda Baker - S - Washington 

81 - Pat Elflein, C/G, Ohio State 

123 - Eddie Jackson, FS, Alabama 

154 - Tanner Vallejo, LB, Boise State 

 

Would be absolutely delighted if we got anything near as good as that next week. Baker being there in the 2nd is prob a bit of a pipe dream though.

[Dark Acre]

8 minutes ago, Gregpeck99 said:

Lamp is cleaner than an unused hospital sheet.  AND he can play all 3 positions on OL.  Long is FA next year ... Lamp will eventually play center and be all-Pro for a decade. Callahan loves him.

 

And so do I.

I appreciate that.  Still, how much better is he than the guy we could get in round 2, meaning there's a top-17 talent we also pick up.  I think that's part of the key to successful drafting -- understanding opportunity costs and rate of marginal returns.  If Lamp allows plays to happen (or happen better) than any other guy in the draft, that's great.  If his impact versus the next guy (I believe this is what they call WAR) is marginal, then what's the big deal?

[Morneblade]

1 minute ago, Morrison J said:

5 round mock I did on another site for the Skins. 

 

17 - Haasson Reddick, LB, Temple. 

49 - Budda Baker - S - Washington 

81 - Pat Elflein, C/G, Ohio State 

123 - Eddie Jackson, FS, Alabama 

154 - Tanner Vallejo, LB, Boise State 

 

Would be absolutely delighted if we got anything near as good as that next week. Baker being there in the 2nd is prob a bit of a pipe dream though.

 

if the big issues were S and LB, sure. but since is the DL is worse than either of those positions, I don't like it much at all.

[Mania]

27 minutes ago, Gregpeck99 said:

Yea ... love to have Road ...his glam, speed, twitchy-ness, great hands and intangibles overcomes injury Flags!

Yeah, obviously mean ross, but you got it

[Morneblade]

2 minutes ago, GothSkinsFan said:

I appreciate that.  Still, how much better is he than the guy we could get in round 2, meaning there's a top-17 talent we also pick up.  I think that's part of the key to successful drafting -- understanding opportunity costs and rate of marginal returns.  If Lamp allows plays to happen (or happen better) than any other guy in the draft, that's great.  If his impact versus the next guy (I believe this is what they call WAR) is marginal, then what's the big deal?

 

Honestly I think it's easier to get a 2nd tier tackle that doesn't have the foot speed but is a mauler and convert him to guard later in the draft. And there are a couple guys that fit that mold.