Durability. An important draft and free agent criteria?

[Tomel]

I did a search here on the term durability but could not find exactly what I was looking for. Sorry if I missed it.

 

In my mind, an athlete's history of durability should play an important role in the selection process, both in the draft and in free agency. It does a team no good if they have the best QB, tight end, linebacker (name a position), if they only play a small percent of the time. Give me second best who plays almost every play for an entire season. Obviously, injuries will occur in football, but it seems that some players are more prone to injury than others. Is it their physical make-up? Is it a matter of technique? Certainly, sometimes it's pure dumb luck. Given the Commanders history with injured players over recent years, I'm wondering durability was not even considered in the selection process. Doing a web search, it looks like the Commanders consistently rank in the top 10 for most injuries.

 

Any thoughts?

Edited January 19 by Tomel

[Conn]

I’ve always thought it depended on the specific injuries, even when guys miss a bunch of time over a period of years. Sure, some guys are just fragile and we can spot that. But there are other guys where I make a distinction. There was a period of time when people argued that CMC was injury prone because he missed time multiple years in a row. I didn’t believe so because none of them were chronic, repeat injuries or obvious compensation injuries from such. And that’s how I tend to think about it. Keenan Allen is another good example. Has missed lots of time in his long career, but they were unrelated leg injuries that didn’t carry long term concerns, and between them he’s always been a high volume guy. If a WR could be considered a “bellcow”, he’d be one. 
 

So, yeah. Depends a lot on the specific injuries. I tend to expect certain injuries to cascade, though. Hammies, groins, certain foot injuries. And that can wreck that season.

[NOLA2DC]

You can't really predict it. Take DJ Metcalf, for example; he had a history of neck injuries at Old Miss. 

[Lombardi's_kid_brother]

This seems like one of those things that is a problem until it isn't or isn't a problem until it is. 

 

Lamar Jackson seemed to me like a guy who was always going to give you 75 percent of a season because he broke down every December. Now, he's two games away from a Super Bowl win having played every meaningful snap for his team.

 

Andrew Luck seemed totally indestructable until he retired at 29.

[Renegade7]

Bruce Allen made a habit of targeting players with injury histories to get them at a cheaper price. 

 

The idea at least someone talented will be healthy didn't work.

[Conn]

53 minutes ago, Renegade7 said:

Bruce Allen made a habit of targeting players with injury histories to get them at a cheaper price. 

 

The idea at least someone talented will be healthy didn't work.

The SF FO before their current setup did the same. It can work in specific cases but there’s a reason guys get removed from (or pushed down) draft boards, when it comes to chronic injuries. 

[FrFan]

https://www.draftsharks.com/injury-predictor/qb

https://www.nfl.com/news/video-predicting-player-injury-with-the-digital-athlete

 

NFL implements artificial intelligence for player health and safety

The Digital Athlete is an AI tool that helps teams analyze thousands of data points from every play and hit, in a matter of minutes instead of days.

The San Francisco 49ers will take on the Minnesota Vikings for Monday Night Football. But while fans cheer on their team from home or the stadium, artificial intelligence will be behind the scenes analyzing millions of data points on every play.

It's all part of a new program called the Digital Athlete that the NFL has rolled out to help better understand injuries and make the game safer for players.

We refer to a football field as the gridiron. It's a checkerboard of hash marks where teams battle as they throw themselves at one another in celebration of a violent sport.

 

But while players are on the field exerting themselves, Ben Peterson sits comfortably in a chair, crunching numbers collected from that battlefield.

"I probably start my day with a couple of graphs and end my day with a couple of graphs," he said. "And as long as everything goes well, I don't have to do any graphing in the middle of the day."

Peterson is the vice president of health and performance for the San Francisco 49ers. His job is exactly what it sounds like: Keep players healthy and available. That means he spends the better part of his days staring at screens as he interprets data and uses those conclusions to guide training and rehab.

"Most people would think if you interact with a lot of data, it kind of isolates you," Peterson said. "I think it's the opposite because it gives you a lot of things to talk about."

 

This year, one of the things he can't stop talking about is his new assistant, the Digital Athlete.

"What's really helped with that is you get off of trying to do the analysis and you can spend way more time with the player," Peterson said. "Or you can spend way more time talking to other people on the staff, right? You can spend more time communicating with the coaching staff."

The Digital Athlete is a three-dimensional rendering of a player that the NFL created with Amazon Web Services. It takes any play, runs it at every angle and in any condition, millions of times, allowing people like Peterson to see the results so they can better guide player safety in practice and on game day.

The technology began development in 2019. Last year, the NFL piloted its use with four teams during the season, and this year is the first time it's been available for the entire league to use.

 

"When you think about it, a healthy roster is a healthy team. And in the longevity of a season, you need a healthy roster," said Jennifer Langton, vice president of health and safety innovation for the NFL.

She says much of the innovation we've seen over the last few years — whether it be not allowing players to initiate hits with their helmets, trip, or launch at another player — have been made, in large part, because of the data gathered by the Digital Athlete.

 

"There is a potential to revolutionize not just health and safety in the NFL, but also to address injury prevention and detection," Langton added.

The information also seems to be helping. According to the NFL, concussions are down 25% since 2018, and Peterson says the 49ers have also seen fewer soft tissue injuries this year than they did at this point last season.

"I definitely think it's good for the game," he said. "I'm always biased. I think more information is good. You just have to understand how to use it and action it."

Edited January 23 by FrFan

[RVAskins]

It's hard to predict durability but if there are red flags, you need to do your due diligence. We also don't need another Fat Albert who can't pass his conditioning test.

[Renegade7]

38 minutes ago, Conn said:

The SF FO before their current setup did the same. It can work in specific cases but there’s a reason guys get removed from (or pushed down) draft boards, when it comes to chronic injuries. 

 

Interesting point on SF.

 

Sometimes I wonder if a case study needs to be done on how quickly that whole thing came apart for them, it was nearly overnight how fast it was (semi-related).

 

Huge amount of respect how quickly Lynch and Kyle got them back on their feet.

[clskinsfan]

To me durability cant be measured. Injuries happen. To all players. Now injury history can be measured. Especially the types of injuries a player has had in the past. Take Penix for example. Two ACL's and his elevated age take him off my board. I would not draft him. By the time he has become accustomed to the NFL game he could be facing an arthritic knee. Now compare that someone like Amarius Mims. He has a history of nagging injuries that have cost him games. But not seasons. He is a late first/early second rounder to me. 

 

The other thing that matters is will a player play hurt. Not injured. Hurt. There is a difference. Every single NFL player is hurt by the end of the season. Playing through pain is a necessity.

[Tyler Spiers]

2 hours ago, clskinsfan said:

To me durability cant be measured. Injuries happen. To all players. Now injury history can be measured. Especially the types of injuries a player has had in the past. Take Penix for example. Two ACL's and his elevated age take him off my board. I would not draft him. By the time he has become accustomed to the NFL game he could be facing an arthritic knee. Now compare that someone like Amarius Mims. He has a history of nagging injuries that have cost him games. But not seasons. He is a late first/early second rounder to me. 

 

The other thing that matters is will a player play hurt. Not injured. Hurt. There is a difference. Every single NFL player is hurt by the end of the season. Playing through pain is a necessity.

I think it can be measured to a degree just by looking at a player visually. For example, if you put RG3 and Russel Wilson in a line up and asked which player is more durable, there would be no question it's Wilson in my mind. Some guys just have more flexible muscles and bones and are just stouter. Some guys always get hurt, others never or very rarely. I think the key is that you want stout guys for all the dirty work and then for your more light and skinny skill players, you want to do all you can to make sure they don't sustain maximum impacts. I think durability is huge. Like I would not want Tua at all, I hate to say it but he is not going to have a long career no matter what he does.

[Conn]

5 minutes ago, Tyler Spiers said:

I think it can be measured to a degree just by looking at a player visually. For example, if you put RG3 and Russel Wilson in a line up and asked which player is more durable, there would be no question it's Wilson in my mind. Some guys just have more flexible muscles and bones and are just stouter. Some guys always get hurt, others never or very rarely. I think the key is that you want stout guys for all the dirty work and then for your more light and skinny skill players, you want to do all you can to make sure they don't sustain maximum impacts. I think durability is huge. Like I would not want Tua at all, I hate to say it but he is not going to have a long career no matter what he does.

Tua is as thick as a tree trunk so I think you’re making two points that don’t go together in this post. You clearly cannot tell just by looking at a guy unless he has an atypical body for an NFL player at his position. Then you at least have the foundation for some worry. But Tua has legs the size of a torso. And you can’t predict concussions until they’ve started happening (though the Dolphins teaching him to fall—a learnable skill—and how to roll and absorb impact with the ground rather than bouncing off the turf like an armless toddler has seemingly helped a lot). 

[Tyler Spiers]

6 minutes ago, Conn said:

Tua is as thick as a tree trunk so I think you’re making two points that don’t go together in this post. You clearly cannot tell just by looking at a guy unless he has an atypical body for an NFL player at his position. Then you at least have the foundation for some worry. But Tua has legs the size of a torso. And you can’t predict concussions until they’ve started happening (though the Dolphins teaching him to fall—a learnable skill—and how to roll and absorb impact with the ground rather than bouncing off the turf like an armless toddler has seemingly helped a lot). 

Yes he has thick legs but visually, I always thought he was small and would get bounced around like a pinball, which is what has happened and what will continue to happen. He's a very, very good, exciting player and I loved watching him and Miami have success this year, but I don't think he's durable enough to take you the whole way and I don't think he'll have a long career. I wouldn't want to be married to him is my point. He could prove me wrong, not totally counting him out but just a feeling. I like to use Russel Wilson as an example of durability because when he came out I wasn't sure he'd be a star, but I did think he would be durable. Wilson is as thick as a tree trunk but visually to me he looks miles above Tua's durability.

 

This is why I would do my due diligence on Daniels regarding durability. Forbes is another good example of just last year. When I looked at his body and saw his weight, I thought this guy is gonna have a rough time physically in the NFL. Very talented but much too frail. Surprised the coaches who make millions to do this stuff couldn't deduce this.

[Riggo-toni]

For the 4th time this century we have the #2 overall pick, and in all 3 previous cases the result was the same - we drafted an overrated player because his athleticism was off the charts, but he subsequently suffered a catastrophic knee injury that took away his only edge and exposed his lack of actual skills.

 

It's why we will probably draft Daniels, but after much hype he will destroy his ACL, thus saving our streak of not having drafted a winning QB in the first round since 1937.

[ntotoro]

This isn't Dan. Daniels would tear his ACL heading to the stage after picked. It's gonna' be Maye.

[Tomel]

I'm the OP on this thread. Does the recent F- ratings and actions taken by management this week provide some support for the observations that I offered? I really think that an assessment of "injury proneness (I realize that's not a word)" and having staff and facilities that focus on player health (and, therefore, availability) are critical factors in any team's success.

[Riggo-toni]

Micro Penix would be a top 3 pick if not for the injuries, but I would be terrified of drafting him.  On the other hand, we got away with a steal in Jon Allen falling in the draft because of health (heart) concerns.

Curtis Martin was injured all 4 years of his college career, but ended up being a workhorse up to his 30s.  Fred Taylor earned a reputation for being brittle, but at the end of his career was healthy and productive for several years.

[Est.1974]

32 minutes ago, Riggo-toni said:

Micro Penix would be a top 3 pick if not for the injuries, but I would be terrified of drafting him.  On the other hand, we got away with a steal in Jon Allen falling in the draft because of health (heart) concerns

Wasn’t Allen shoulder concerns, then it was Sweat with heart concerns.

[Riggo-toni]

3 minutes ago, Est.1974 said:

Wasn’t Allen shoulder concerns, then it was Sweat with heart concerns.

Oh ok, I guess I got those mixed up. Both ended up being solid value, especially Allen.

[DWinzit]

I like this topic, the thread could move in different directions.

 

All those injuries this team experienced for a string of a couple years was awful. While that was a combo of bringing in cheaper injury prone players, poor conditioning whether facility or coaching and of course just dumb luck. It feels good to see our injuries have moved back to a normal level. With the new regime focusing on newer technologies and willing to invest in the facilities fingers crossed with continue to see down ticks in injuries. 

 

Penix was a great example for a player with the major injury history that will cause him to drop into the Bruce bargain range. Another example in Payton Wilson, dang I want us to grab that dude but he is a big red flag. I then think back to Bryce Love type selection and cool my jets on those players, although they knew he wouldn't be ready to play right away. I can see taking risk pick with a late day three pick on a real dropper but not early picks.

 

The biggest injury history red flags for me involves concussions. If I see more than one concussion listed in their profiles, I avoid those players. I know, many of these aren't recorded but that even more scares me away because these are ones that have been recorded. 

Edited April 10 by DWinzit

[gbear]

Was it Bill Parcels who said "the most important important ability is availability."

 

I think this still holds true, especially as one tries to construct a nucleus of a successful team going forward.  The guys have to be used to playing next to the other players on the field, and that only happens if they are playing.

[cboatner]

On 1/23/2024 at 8:39 AM, Lombardi's_kid_brother said:

Andrew Luck seemed totally indestructable until he retired at 29.

AL was built like a truck but run into the ground by the Colts, never given ample time to recover.

[Wildbunny]

On 4/10/2024 at 4:06 PM, gbear said:

Was it Bill Parcels who said "the most important important ability is availability."

 

I think this still holds true, especially as one tries to construct a nucleus of a successful team going forward.  The guys have to be used to playing next to the other players on the field, and that only happens if they are playing.

 Reminds me of debates we had on this forum  with Jordan Reed.

 

I always thought, and still do, that best players are on the field playing football.

 

Whatever the talent they have, an injured player serves you no good on any given sunday. Injuries are a big part in this game, and players that can stay away from them is always a big bonus for the team.