2024 NFL Draft Position/Tracker - Final Pick #2

[clskinsfan]

1 minute ago, Skinsinparadise said:

You can see him reading the field and go through progressions

Thats what I pointed out in the draft thread. He will stand tall in the pocket, read the field and miss huge gaping holes in the defense. Then he takes off. Maybe he will improve on that. You are trying to make me go spend a day watching more tape.

5 minutes ago, skinsfan66 said:

How did they get it all the wrong?

We dont know that they did yet. I would still pick Young over Sam right now in this upcoming draft. 

[Skinsinparadise]

15 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

Thats what I pointed out in the draft thread. He will stand tall in the pocket, read the field and miss huge gaping holes in the defense. Then he takes off. Maybe he will improve on that. You are trying to make me go spend a day watching more tape.

 

For any QB, I got to watch 5 games to have confidence in what they can do. 

 

Heck for all the Sam is the dude crowd here as an example.  Imagine telling that to someone who hasn't watched him and they turn on both Giants games and the Dolphins games?  They'd think Sam sucks let alone he might become elite.  

 

It's funny I am slowly going through Drake Maye right now.  The first game I watched was the U M game and he looked "meh" in that one.  Then I watched another and I liked what I saw.  But I need to keep going through it.  I checked out his PFF scores from those games and U M was his worst game in their book.  So potentially his worst game was my first impression.

 

I am not saying you haven't dove deep into Daniels.  I don't know.  But at this point I have.  And without recapping all of that, I think his accuracy is mostly good.  And he will hang in the pocket before running, going through progressions.  But his accuracy is streaky but more good than bad from what I saw.  So that's why I mention it depends on the game.  He has that odd D. McNabb habit of throwing some balls in the dirt especially in the flat when he rushes.

 

To me PFF is just a complement.  I like it as a tool at times and sometimes I don't.  Depends on context.  Their stats never consider context and that's one of their weaknesses among others.  But on occasion their stats have some bearing.  For example they were the one outfit relatively high on Brock Purdy.  Their Ivan Pace score was 90 plus, etc.

 

But anyway I've been compiling stats along with me watching.  Here's some of it for anyone interested.

 

 

 

Edited December 15, 2023 by Skinsinparadise

[skinsfan66]

34 minutes ago, Chris 44 said:

 

Just heard a wild stat. In the past 35 years  There have been  43 QBs drafted in the top 5, only 2 have won a suprbowl for the team that drafted them.

Going to have to look this up for myself. This doesn't sound quite right.

Seems about right just look at The no.1 pick in all of the draft last year, you think he is winning a SB? From those stats one might also think there was a QB first vibe and the rest will take care of it's self. Looks like they went for it.    

[Chump Bailey]

I still think JJ McCarthy is being slept on a tad. I'd really like the Commanders to take him. 

[clskinsfan]

2 minutes ago, Chump Bailey said:

I still think JJ McCarthy is being slept on a tad. I'd really like the Commanders to take him. 

I think he will go back to school. He should. I dont see a first rounder there. 

[Chump Bailey]

12 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

I think he will go back to school. He should. I dont see a first rounder there. 

 

I do like what I see and obviously the position value will propel him, but if he's there bottom of the 1st top of the 2nd, I think it would be a mistake to pass on him. He's got moxie and I would rate his arm as elite level and his mobility is very good to. We'll see. I've liked him for a while now. 

[skinsfan66]

2 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

This should be an interesting thread for the next 5 months, if we end up picking top 5.   

 

A.  You got a group thinking its insane not to consider a QB

 

B.  You got a group thinking its insane to consider a QB.

 

I'd bet my mortgage that A will prevail.  It doesn't feel even close.  Again not that they per se take a QB but that they will heavily consider it, everyone who covers the team expects them, to do it.  It's just logical IMO and that goes double here considing this team's history at the spot. 

 

The only thing that can change that narrative is if Sam starts killing it against top defenses which hasn't happened in the last two weeks but could happen moving forward.  He will have a chance to do it coming up -- SF, the Jets and Dallas are really good defensively.  And if they win a game or two and it takes them out of the top 5.

 

And you have a group who says you have no other choice but to take the QB. You also have a group who want to consider all plays just make the right one.  Young the first pick in the draft looks like a bust and got his coach fired for making that pick. It cost them a lot.

[mac8887]

14 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

I think he will go back to school. He should. I dont see a first rounder there. 

Your right, he would do himself a favor playing one more year in college, there isn't really a reason for him to declare, he'd probably fall the the 2nd round. I'm not sure how much he makes Nil but I'm sure he wouldn't lose to much money by staying one more year. He reminds me a lot of Purdy. He should hone his skills, if he has a good year he'll be a 1st rounder next year in a much weaker qb class

2 minutes ago, skinsfan66 said:

And you have a group who says you have no other choice but to take the QB. You also have a group who want to consider all plays just make the right one.  Young the first pick in the draft looks like a bust and got his coach fired for making that pick. It cost them a lot.

The difference is we won't be mortgaging the future if we lose out. One of the top 3 qbs will be there for the taking. We will still have all of this year's and next year's draft capital to move up or down in the draft and build up the rest of the roster

[Daniel.redskins]

13 minutes ago, skinsfan66 said:

And you have a group who says you have no other choice but to take the QB. You also have a group who want to consider all plays just make the right one.  Young the first pick in the draft looks like a bust and got his coach fired for making that pick. It cost them a lot.

I agree. It would also cost us a lot if Howell gets traded and becomes the next Brees. Howell's first season has been better than most QB's first season. The majority of the fan base has become dead set on taking a QB. I don't even see oline post anymore. There is a higher chance that an unknown college QB will bust in the NFL than Howell because he has already shown he can play in the league. Now if Howell craps the bed the last quarter of the season, that's a different story.  

[Conn]

16 minutes ago, skinsfan66 said:

And you have a group who says you have no other choice but to take the QB. You also have a group who want to consider all plays just make the right one.  Young the first pick in the draft looks like a bust and got his coach fired for making that pick. It cost them a lot.

You keep repeating this, it doesn’t really matter. We all know top picks can bust, it’s part of the risk you take. Most of that staff wanted Stroud btw who is a homerun, their Snyder-like owner ruined it and forced Young (who still may end up good, only fair to mention that even though he looks terrible so far). So who says the guy we could take isn’t Stroud? Maybe we don’t take a QB, obviously—maybe we shouldn’t! But it’s disingenuous to act like there isn’t a chance the pick could be franchise-changing in a good way, just as much as you talk about the risk. And Howell could just not develop at all. There’s risk in every option. 

[Koolblue13]

If a new GM and HC see a QB in the draft they like a lot and they can draft him, they should. That's a no brainer.

 

We;ll probably win a game and **** our pick up anyway. End up at 6 and we can argue over Alt vs Fashuna, without talking about having to trade anyone away.

 

You don't get top 5 picks often, especially when you might have a starting QB on a late round rookie deal. 

[Voice_of_Reason]

12 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

I am higher than both Fashanu and Alt than most.  I think they are both legit top 10 picks.  But I am probably somewhere in between the mock draft community who think both guys are super great prospects, slam dunk no brainer top pick 5 picks especially Fashanu and some of the critics of both players on the board who think they are overrated and aren't so hot.

 

I think both would be strong gets in the top 10, heck I wouldn't hate it in the top 5 either.

 

But i do like the depth at that spot so for the O line or bust crowd, I'd rather trade down.  And overall Marvin Harrison Jr. or a QB if they love one intrigue me much more.

Ok, let’s say they trade down and don’t get one of the top 3 billed tackles.  Who’s tackle 4 and how do they compare to the top 3?

 

”Deep draft class” is great, but if there are 3 A players, and 7 B players, in theory it’s still better to get the A player if you’re in position to do so.  
 

At least to me.  
 

Generally when I hear about a deep class, it’s where there are a whole lot of comparable guys who are in that second tier, very good NFL prospects.  But there is almost always one or two elite prospects in front of the “deep” group.  That’s not always true but generally true.

 

If you’re in the top 5, I think you need to come away with an A player, not 3 B players. 
 

So if you can trade down and stay in the same tier, that’s ideal.  

[MrJL]

5 minutes ago, Voice_of_Reason said:

Ok, let’s say they trade down and don’t get one of the top 3 billed tackles.  Who’s tackle 4 and how do they compare to the top 3?

 

”Deep draft class” is great, but if there are 3 A players, and 7 B players, in theory it’s still better to get the A player if you’re in position to do so.  
 

At least to me.  
 

Generally when I hear about a deep class, it’s where there are a whole lot of comparable guys who are in that second tier, very good NFL prospects.  But there is almost always one or two elite prospects in front of the “deep” group.  That’s not always true but generally true.

 

If you’re in the top 5, I think you need to come away with an A player, not 3 B players. 
 

So if you can trade down and stay in the same tier, that’s ideal.  

from what I hear the difference between the A level and B level tackles is the A level guys are LTs, and the B level are RTs

[skinsfan66]

2 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

Breer is plugged in, his point about the expiring contract of a young QB will have some relevance soon here, too.  I read today that Dak might get 60 million a year on his next contract.  If so its going to make the gap between young QBs on rookie contracts and veterans even wider.

 

https://www.si.com/nfl/2023/12/14/mailbag-drake-maye-caleb-williams-draft-prospects

Take Williams, and trade Fields. Chances are you won’t be able to get much more than a Day 2 pick for Fields at this point, especially since he’s headed into the final year of his rookie contract (with the pricey option for 2025). But in this scenario, you get four years of Williams on a rookie deal, meaning the same way you could load the team around Fields with rookie talent, you could use the extra cap space to be aggressive in getting veteran talent to put around Williams.

Fields has little upside just another top QB pick that busted.  They picked Fields last time and 4 years later they won 5 games so far this year and know he is worth a second day pick? They blew it and now they get to try again. It's not a absolute, Did Breer like Young last year, not looking to good for the QB right now. 

 

 

 

 

 

  

[Skinsinparadise]

35 minutes ago, skinsfan66 said:

And you have a group who says you have no other choice but to take the QB. You also have a group who want to consider all plays just make the right one.  Young the first pick in the draft looks like a bust and got his coach fired for making that pick. It cost them a lot.

 

The Giants thought enough of what Daniel Jones flashed during his rookie season.  Mobility.  2 to 1 TD to INT ratio.  Not every game was good but he had some nices ones in the mix.  So it was hard pass for them on Herbert or Tua lets build around Daniel.  Lets take a LT and build around him instead.  Just like many here suggest we do. 

 

Other examples like that.  So using your same logic but turning it the opposite way, I can just run with examples like that and say thats why we need move away from Howell.  

 

But nope I don't believe that.  I don't care about Daniel Jones and the Giants.  It's not apples to apples.  Every scenario is different.  

 

We've passed over QBs in the draft because we wanted to give patience and time for Ramsey, Campbell, Haskins and yes they all flashed early on where there was a narrative of hey maybe.  Especially with Campbell.   

 

The history of this team is more about missed opportunity at QB than not being patient with our current young QB.  A new GM should weigh all options. 

 

Either make a hard guess that...

 

A.  Sam Howell will grow into being a franchise QB or

B.  He's not a franchise QB, and there is another option who might be

C. Or maybe its something in the middle where they think Sam is good and not great but they are too unsure about the other QBs

 

I know a small but vocal minority on the QB thread think its in play that Sam is a below average QB.  i am rejecting that take.  But that's more about a feeling for me than something I know for certain.   I like Sam, I think he's going to evolve into a good QB.  But I am not in the camp that he's untouchable and I am not scared about making a mistake when it comes to betting on upside at any spot, not just QB.  

 

None of these teams Qb mistakes over decades felt like mistakes in real time.  But if I had to come up with a theme it hasn't been we've bailed on the young QB and they just killed it elsewhere.  Don't get me wrong, its perfectly possible that if they bail on Sam, that ends up a mistake.  But its equally possible they pass on a franchise QB for a lesser QB.    I don't have a hard take either way.  My hard take is I don't understand how someone can have a hard take.  It's not IMO an easy call either way.

 

[Koolblue13]

This Raiders Chargers game is brutal.

 

Shows how much of a difference a coach can make.

[Skinsinparadise]

23 minutes ago, Voice_of_Reason said:

Ok, let’s say they trade down and don’t get one of the top 3 billed tackles.  Who’s tackle 4 and how do they compare to the top 3?

 

”Deep draft class” is great, but if there are 3 A players, and 7 B players, in theory it’s still better to get the A player if you’re in position to do so.  
 

At least to me.  
 

Generally when I hear about a deep class, it’s where there are a whole lot of comparable guys who are in that second tier, very good NFL prospects.  But there is almost always one or two elite prospects in front of the “deep” group.  That’s not always true but generally true.

 

If you’re in the top 5, I think you need to come away with an A player, not 3 B players. 
 

So if you can trade down and stay in the same tier, that’s ideal.  

 

It's talked about a lot in the draft thread.  cliffs notes:  Fauga, Latham, Mims, Latham.  Maybe Morgan.  It's oddly deep -- in a good way.  Feels like how the TE crop was last year -- deep. 

[kingdaddy]

3 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

Breer is plugged in, his point about the expiring contract of a young QB will have some relevance soon here, too.  I read today that Dak might get 60 million a year on his next contract.  If so its going to make the gap between young QBs on rookie contracts and veterans even wider.

 

https://www.si.com/nfl/2023/12/14/mailbag-drake-maye-caleb-williams-draft-prospects

Take Williams, and trade Fields. Chances are you won’t be able to get much more than a Day 2 pick for Fields at this point, especially since he’s headed into the final year of his rookie contract (with the pricey option for 2025). But in this scenario, you get four years of Williams on a rookie deal, meaning the same way you could load the team around Fields with rookie talent, you could use the extra cap space to be aggressive in getting veteran talent to put around Williams.

makes sense

[NoVaSkins21]

Just now, Koolblue13 said:

This Raiders Chargers game is brutal.

 

Shows how much of a difference a coach can make.

Staley sucks, but the Chargers not having Herbert is huge as well

[skinsfan66]

19 minutes ago, Conn said:

You keep repeating this, it doesn’t really matter. We all know top picks can bust, it’s part of the risk you take. Most of that staff wanted Stroud btw who is a homerun, their Snyder-like owner ruined it and forced Young (who still may end up good, only fair to mention that even though he looks terrible so far). So who says the guy we could take isn’t Stroud? Maybe we don’t take a QB, obviously—maybe we shouldn’t! But it’s disingenuous to act like there isn’t a chance the pick could be franchise-changing in a good way, just as much as you talk about the risk. And Howell could just not develop at all. There’s risk in every option. 

I do not care if we take a QB, if he is the pick. But I am tired of seeing that a QB is the only pick and you have too. We have many options, trades or whatever and many holes to fill.

[Koolblue13]

Who knows. Sam Howell could be Josh Allen or he could be Josh Allen. It's wait and see..

[Skinsinparadise]

25 minutes ago, skinsfan66 said:

Fields has little upside just another top QB pick that busted.  They picked Fields last time and 4 years later they won 5 games so far this year and know he is worth a second day pick? They blew it and now they get to try again. It's not a absolute, Did Breer like Young last year, not looking to good for the QB right now. 

 

 

 

 

 

  

 

Breer isn't an evaluator.  He's a national reporter.  The point had nothing to do with evaluation.  It centered on length of cheap contract.  5 years versus 2 years, isn't an opinion.  It's a fact.

 

Look I am not saying don't run it back with Howell.  I don't know.  But I can give a rats ass that Bryce Young has struggled in the context of this call.  But if its Howell, you'd be squandering the cheap contract if you don't go hard to win now. 

 

IMO if this is a run it back with Howell drill, screw the QBs in this draft -- then its carpe diem.  You want to load up that team for a run in the next two years and big time.

 

5 minutes ago, Koolblue13 said:

Who knows. Sam Howell could be Josh Allen or he could be Josh Allen. It's wait and see..

 

 Josh Allen had elite tools.   i am higher on Howell than most in that I think like 90% chance he's a good QB in the league.  I like his floor. 

 

But I struggle with the idea that we might discover Howell is elite.  Most elite QBs have elite tools.  He has good tools. 

Edited December 15, 2023 by Skinsinparadise

[Franklin60]

2 hours ago, Chris 44 said:

 

Just heard a wild stat. In the past 35 years  There have been  43 QBs drafted in the top 5, only 2 have won a suprbowl for the team that drafted them.

Going to have to look this up for myself. This doesn't sound quite right.

Peyton and Aikman, so yeah. Eli was technically drafted by the Chargers. Wentz could count, though he was injured and didn’t play. A bunch of others got to the Super Bowl and lost. Goff, Ryan, Burrow, Newton. Maybe others.

[NoVaSkins21]

This team cannot win another game because a team like the Chargers are going to be right on their heels in free fall mode with the ways they're going, especially with Herbert done for the year

Edited December 15, 2023 by NoVaSkins21

[Skinsinparadise]

1 minute ago, NoVaSkins21 said:

This team cannot win another game because a team like the Chargers are going to be on their heels in free fall mode with they're going, especially with Herbert done for the year

 

Yeah hopefully Ron's half speed, arms folded, let the players make the half time speeches, i am not challanging plays that can turn the game our way, etc -- stays in full force.

Edited December 15, 2023 by Skinsinparadise