2024 Comprehensive Draft Thread

[philibusters]

8 minutes ago, Going Commando said:

I'm 100% out on Guyton.  I get the appeals to upside.  I see the mirror speed and the size.  But he doesn't have that dog in him.  Motor sucks.  Zero nastiness.  The softest run blocker in the class by far.  Actually looks sulky when he's asked to move block in the run game, when that is what good OLs live for.  He's also pretty stiff and has bad grip strength in addition to the effort, awareness, focus, and aggression issues.

 

He's better than Jaelyn Duncan, but he reminds me of Jaelyn Duncan.  Duncan was horrendous on film, and was one of the worst players in the NFL as a rookie.  He managed to give up 9 sacks in just 364 snaps and had a 32.9 PFF grade.  Guyton isn't the absolute trainwreck in pass pro that Duncan was, but he's also a baby **** soft player who put too many flat out bad reps on film to ignore.  Guys like this bust.

We'd be better off lighting our card on fire and picking nobody than drafting Guyton at 36.

 

 

My take on Guyton which is all secondhand, though it is derived from listening to a handful of opinions on him, is that his film sucks.  He had his struggles at the senior bowl, but he also came across as a high energy guy at the senior bowl who at least some thought were coachable, but its tough to tell from like three days of practice.

So I more or less agree, but am probably marginally higher on him because of the reports of his high energy and good attitude.

[method man]

13 hours ago, Warhead36 said:

Ehhh....na I wouldn't. I'm fine sitting at 36 and taking whoever the best is left between Saumatia, Amigadje etc. I don't think there is THAT much of a difference.

 

The only T I'd trade 36 and 67 for would be Fashanu if he fell(or Fuaga but no chance).

You could move up for Mims and then trade back from #40 to a little later in rd 2 and add a 4th and still get whoever is left between Amegadjie, Suamataia and Fisher in the 2nd. I would absolutely double dip on this OT class given Wylie is a very temporary bandaid at RT

[Warhead36]

Just now, method man said:

You could move up for Mims and then trade back from #40 to a little later in rd 2 and add a 4th and still get whoever is left between Amegadjie, Suamataia and Fisher in the 2nd. I would absolutely double dip on this OT class given Wylie is a very temporary bandaid at RT

From what I'm hearing/reading, Mims won't drop past the Steelers at 20. They like him and they always give their plans away(everyone knew they were taking Najee Harris and Kenny Pickett in those years).

 

I highly doubt we move all the way up to 19 for a prospect as uncertain as Mims.

 

I do like your idea of double dipping at OT. Its a strong class and its nice to load up on talented young OL that can grow together.

[Redskins 2021]

12 minutes ago, Warhead36 said:

From what I'm hearing/reading, Mims won't drop past the Steelers at 20. They like him and they always give their plans away(everyone knew they were taking Najee Harris and Kenny Pickett in those years).

 

I highly doubt we move all the way up to 19 for a prospect as uncertain as Mims.

 

I do like your idea of double dipping at OT. Its a strong class and its nice to load up on talented young OL that can grow together.

 Mims to pitt I have seen a few places as well. 

[The Consigliere]

On 4/19/2024 at 9:05 AM, Koolblue13 said:

I'd pick McCaffery before Coleman. I just don't see him ever getting open in the NFL and I don't think they'll need to use CBs to cover him, just SS and LBers.

He is a HUGE risk play. But he's also super weird. if he's slow as hell and crap, why was he used on special teams? Well, he is slow, it was timed, well, can we make sense of his weird explosion scores (vertical leap and broad jump) and why he actually had some weird splits in his 40. 

 

He reminds me a little of the conversation w/Mingo last year, where some were all in, and some were totally out (me)....not as a prospect, but how much some like him and some have them entirely off their boards...

 

He's weird. I'd much rather just go after guys like McConkey, and Pearsall who seem safer, or Wilson, who has similar bust risk but more inviting traits and profile. 

 

Keon is very much: this guy is either a home run like Anquan, or gonna go the way of Hakeem Butler and N'Keal Harry. No idea which and I'd rather someone else take the risk. Maybe also could play out like Benjamin too. Scares me too much, him and Leggette are guys I just want someone else to devour the risk on. 

[Koolblue13]

5 minutes ago, The Consigliere said:

He is a HUGE risk play. But he's also super weird. if he's slow as hell and crap, why was he used on special teams? Well, he is slow, it was timed, well, can we make sense of his weird explosion scores (vertical leap and broad jump) and why he actually had some weird splits in his 40. 

 

He reminds me a little of the conversation w/Mingo last year, where some were all in, and some were totally out (me)....not as a prospect, but how much some like him and some have them entirely off their boards...

 

He's weird. I'd much rather just go after guys like McConkey, and Pearsall who seem safer, or Wilson, who has similar bust risk but more inviting traits and profile. 

 

Keon is very much: this guy is either a home run like Anquan, or gonna go the way of Hakeem Butler and N'Keal Harry. No idea which and I'd rather someone else take the risk. Maybe also could play out like Benjamin too. Scares me too much, him and Leggette are guys I just want someone else to devour the risk on. 

XL id take the risk. I don't think he'll be there at 36. 

 

Wilson and Coleman I wouldn't draft. 

 

I really want Polk and Malik W. That's my day 2&3 picks. Polk is big enough to be a legit X and Malik is so much fun with the ball in his hand. He's like a MJD but at WR.

 

I can't help but want Rice and McCaffrey on day 3 either. I just know they'll have the work ethic to last in the league.

[RWJ]

A little early for Roger but I like him as an OT

 

 

[REDSKINS STOMP]

Want to make Jayden Daniels happy? Draft Ricky Pearsall, former ASU teammates. Draft Pearsall anyway, regardless of what QB is taken.

[The Consigliere]

On 4/21/2024 at 7:30 AM, Koolblue13 said:

Bates had the highest block win rate in the NFL his rookie year, before EB came in and forgot what blocking was. 

 

I'm sure the coaching staff we've assembled knows how to use him. 

 

Ertz is a great veteran TE to have as well. I don't think TE is much of a "need" this year, although I do think we draft one.

Ertz is catch and fall at this point, he knows how to play but he offers nothing in the + sense. 

 

We can't hit every need and this isn't a good TE draft (like almost all drafts except last year and '17), there are some interesting guys that might drop to day 3 that are worth speculative selections, but I'm not trying to grab one on day 2, and if that means all my guys are gone, so be it. Sinnott and Bell seem like the most interesting after Bowers to me. I tend to think Sinnott will go too early and Bell may be regarded as too much of a hybrid. 

[The Consigliere]

On 4/21/2024 at 7:32 AM, Going Commando said:

 

I think he's going to go in the second round, and then hindsight will set in pretty quickly with him that he should have been a first rounder, like with Jonathan Taylor.  But if he makes it to round three, I want us to draft him.  Don't care that we've got Ekeler and BRob, he's better than both of them today, and probably far better over a window of the next four years.

 

I honestly don't think I've ever seen someone with better vision, instincts, and elusiveness at the college level.  I'm way too young for OK St Barry, but that's what he feels like. I do remember MJD at UCLA, and Corum was way better.  Definitely never seen anyone reverse field and string together moves as efficiently as him.  And his big play finishing is as special as it ever gets.  His toolkit is massive and I think he can star in either gap or zone heavy schemes.

 

It's kind of incredible that he's going under the radar.  He's one of the faces of the sport, and was a historic player on a National Champion with tons of fans in the football media.

Nobody ever was remotely like Barry in '88. I've never seen anything like that or even close to it, since. You are definitely way way way higher on Corum than anyone I've ever come across the past year. It will be interesting if this eval proves out. Personally I don't see it. I think he's a solid round 3 prospect, I don't think he's particular special, especially post injury, but I think he should be fine w/his skill set, able to carry a committee or win a job, but difference maker w/elite talent in the way of an AP, a Taylor, a Breece Hall or Gibbs, Bijan etc. Just don't see the same player. I just see a solid decent back that will belong.

 

W/regards to Barry, there's some footage out there, I was just in 8th grade when it happened, but what stuck out for me beyond the footage was the guy just ran off 200+ yard games every week for a crappy team in the was it Big 12 or SWAC or what? Can't remember back then. It was insane, and when you watch him, the hips, explosion, change of direction were just orders of magnitude superior to anything I'd ever seen before or since. Closest was maybe Faulk, but Faulk didn't have the "alien" quality he had, but he did have the explosion piece. 

[Warhead36]

Rosengarten's arm length is below 34''. He's a G in the NFL. I'd take him but not at 40 or before. At 67 though sure.

[RWJ]

4 minutes ago, Warhead36 said:

Rosengarten's arm length is below 34''. He's a G in the NFL. I'd take him but not at 40 or before. At 67 though sure.

His arms are long enough to play OT.  I would take him at #67 also.  

[Koolblue13]

47 minutes ago, The Consigliere said:

Ertz is catch and fall at this point, he knows how to play but he offers nothing in the + sense. 

 

We can't hit every need and this isn't a good TE draft (like almost all drafts except last year and '17), there are some interesting guys that might drop to day 3 that are worth speculative selections, but I'm not trying to grab one on day 2, and if that means all my guys are gone, so be it. Sinnott and Bell seem like the most interesting after Bowers to me. I tend to think Sinnott will go too early and Bell may be regarded as too much of a hybrid. 

Sinnott and Cupp have been my boys from day one.

 

I can see us going with Sanders if he drops, because you're right, we've got nobody dynamic at TE.

 

I also think Detroit may have raised the bar on drafting the right TE. Sinnott, Stover, Johnson I wouldn't be shocked if any of them went early 2nd.

[Always A Commander Never A Captain]

46 minutes ago, Warhead36 said:

Rosengarten's arm length is below 34''. He's a G in the NFL. I'd take him but not at 40 or before. At 67 though sure.

 

34" is the ideal length. But it's not a deal breaker to be under it. 33" starts becoming problematic however. I'm trying to remember Joe Thomas's remeasured arm length and it was something like 33 and 5/8ths? Jason Peters, the LT for the Bills and Eagles for decades was something like 33 and 1/8 and or 2/8.

 

Roger Rosengarten's arm length is 33.5", makes it harder but it's not a deal breaker. He's got to be technically consistent to make it work, but helpfully he's athletic.

 

I think it's more likely he's a Guard than OT, but I'm not ruling it out. I also don't think I'd take him at 40, but I would happily at 67. He's one of my trade back from 36 or 40 candidates and then draft.

[Koolblue13]

I hope we can draft OL better than SF ever has.

[Est.1974]

Is Brian Thomas expected to last to the 20s ?

[mudhog]

4 hours ago, method man said:

You could move up for Mims and then trade back from #40 to a little later in rd 2 and add a 4th and still get whoever is left between Amegadjie, Suamataia and Fisher in the 2nd. I would absolutely double dip on this OT class given Wylie is a very temporary bandaid at RT

Just looking at the 2nd round in that PFF mock, and the players left after our 36 and 40 picks, I would have taken Suamataia and Persall if I were making straight picks. These mock drafters really have no idea about the majority of team's needs and it shows more often than not. The mock that really surprised me was JP Findlay's mock, which just seemed completely underwhelming. Especially for a guy that's plugged-in.

Edited April 23 by mudhog

[The Consigliere]

2 hours ago, Koolblue13 said:

Sinnott and Cupp have been my boys from day one.

 

I can see us going with Sanders if he drops, because you're right, we've got nobody dynamic at TE.

 

I also think Detroit may have raised the bar on drafting the right TE. Sinnott, Stover, Johnson I wouldn't be shocked if any of them went early 2nd.

I definitely don't get focused on specific players beyond round 1 because it so rarely ever happens, there are simply too many players by round 2-7, and too many needs, so targeting and drafting exactly who you want is just so rare its kind of pointless. I much prefer just tiered out preferences for day 2 and day 3 options amongst the options we're gonna target, so for TE, it's probably: show me who you got for round 3 and after, or DB's, show me round 3 and day 3 etc. Just a preference to me because if you build out like SIP has, here are my WR's and where I think they go, his is more extensive, but it's also helpful, because if you list out WR's likely to be taken in round 2-5, one of those guys is almost certainly going to be drafted by us. 

 

As for the TE piece, I don't think the Detroit angle is helpful. Last year was understood to be the deepest TE class in terms of top end talent, since OJ, Evan and Njoku went in round 1 in '17, and then multiple hits happened on day 2 and day 3 including the best of them all on day 3 in Kittle. Last year's was top heavy, but it had a good day 2 and early day 3. This year is just not. I don't see anything like that trio of Kincaid-Mayer-Laporta or the later guys like Musgrave. It's basically 1 superstud, one guy with day 2 hype based on perception, and then a climber in Sinnott since the combine, and then day 3 guys (who sinnott might be too). Yes, it could just be that teams reach hoping to steal a guy themselves, but it's going to be like that old joke about Hollywood, "It's where thousands of producers and directors desperately run to and fro trying to get hit by the 2nd streak of lightning from a storm". Its doubling down on a '23 strategy in the wrong class, and pretty foolish. If you wanted your Laporta, you should have used top 35 draft capital last year, not this, because this class just have Bowers, nobody is remotely close to the profile of Laporta and Mayer and Kincaid after Bowers in terms of grade. 

 

I think its worth speculating on Sinnott in a trade down in round 3 or early 4, but otherwise I'd just pass. I have zero interest in going that direction unless someone falls into round 3 or 4. 

1 hour ago, Est.1974 said:

Is Brian Thomas expected to last to the 20s ?

It's possible, his profile is weird as hell, pretty barren until '23, and breakout age is much bigger for WR's than QB's (since I've been ****ing about Jayden's breakout age). Thomas is a question mark: 5 star recruit, didn't do it until '23, why? He blew up the combine, so he's gonna go top 30, the question is, will somebody reach on his tantalizing gifts and not sweat the lack of productivity in prior seasons or will he fall because of it? And somebody mentioned he's one of med flagged WR's too (though not a huge worry apparently). 

[BrentMeisterGeneral]

https://www.nbcdfw.com/news/sports/nfl/prospects-accept-invitations-2024-nfl-draft-detroit/3522253/
 

Maye and Daniels headed to Michigan

 

Will we finally after ages and ages and ages get to see our pick walk out on the stage 

[Skinsinparadise]

3 days on and off watching and rewatching o line.  Wanted to spend a lot of time on it because am assuming we are taking one or two of them.  Exhausting.   Here's my ranking.

[Going Commando]

5 hours ago, Warhead36 said:

Rosengarten's arm length is below 34''. He's a G in the NFL. I'd take him but not at 40 or before. At 67 though sure.

 

Yeah.  40 is a reach by at least a full round for Rosengarten.  That would give me Aaron Banks vibes.

[mhd24]

Kingsley won't be there at 36 IMO.  KC and NE would easily take him IMO.  I'm starting too think he'll go above Guyton.

Edited April 23 by mhd24

[Going Commando]

6 hours ago, The Consigliere said:

Nobody ever was remotely like Barry in '88. I've never seen anything like that or even close to it, since. You are definitely way way way higher on Corum than anyone I've ever come across the past year. It will be interesting if this eval proves out. Personally I don't see it. I think he's a solid round 3 prospect, I don't think he's particular special, especially post injury, but I think he should be fine w/his skill set, able to carry a committee or win a job, but difference maker w/elite talent in the way of an AP, a Taylor, a Breece Hall or Gibbs, Bijan etc. Just don't see the same player. I just see a solid decent back that will belong.

 

W/regards to Barry, there's some footage out there, I was just in 8th grade when it happened, but what stuck out for me beyond the footage was the guy just ran off 200+ yard games every week for a crappy team in the was it Big 12 or SWAC or what? Can't remember back then. It was insane, and when you watch him, the hips, explosion, change of direction were just orders of magnitude superior to anything I'd ever seen before or since. Closest was maybe Faulk, but Faulk didn't have the "alien" quality he had, but he did have the explosion piece. 

 

I think Corum is one of the exceptional players that catches both the analytics and traditional eye test scouting people napping.  His age is a long term issue, but it also means that he's probably going to be good immediately.  And not just by rookie standards, but potential top five back standards if he ends up on a team like San Diego or Dallas where there is a major workload waiting for him.  I remember seeing a stat earlier in this thread about how bad his yards after contact/forced missed tackles ratings were compared to other backs in the class, and thinking to myself "something doesn't feel right about that."  What was going on finally clicked for me when I watched his magnificent 15 minute long career highlight video:

 

 

His running is so phenomenally good that defenders aren't even getting into position to attempt a real tackle on him.  Whether they are unblocked in the hole or at the edge.  He's one of the most unique outside zone runners I've ever seen at the college level, and certainly one of the best at following downfield blocks.  I have never seen someone so comfortable and efficient at cutting back or even reversing field on outside zone runs before.  That's just not done in D1 football and up, and it's so next level to me.  And when it comes to backfield creation, he presses the hole so well, that plays where normal good runners have to do something creative to make the first guy miss don't even typically come up for him.  And yet he never runs up the back of his blocks.  It's ridiculously good pace and timing--God given instincts and quickness.

 

He is so good, that I'm struggling to explain to myself why I'm resisting putting him in my top 20.  Guys who make high level football look easy, like they're playing Pop Warner at the Power 5 level are special.  Sometimes you just need to turn your brain off and enjoy a special player, and that's what I think needs to be done with Corum.

8 minutes ago, mhd24 said:

Kingsley won't be there at 36 IMO.  KC and NE would easily take him IMO.  I'm starting too think he'll go above Guyton.

 

He had a team visit with New England.  I think there is a good chance he goes at 34.  Yes, there is a big chance that New England comes away with Drake Maye and Kingsley Suamataia.

[mhd24]

10 minutes ago, Going Commando said:

 

I think Corum is one of the exceptional players that catches both the analytics and traditional eye test scouting people napping.  His age is a long term issue, but it also means that he's probably going to be good immediately.  And not just by rookie standards, but potential top five back standards if he ends up on a team like San Diego or Dallas where there is a major workload waiting for him.  I remember seeing a stat earlier in this thread about how bad his yards after contact/forced missed tackles ratings were compared to other backs in the class, and thinking to myself "something doesn't feel right about that."  What was going on finally clicked for me when I watched his magnificent 15 minute long career highlight video:

 

 

His running is so phenomenally good that defenders aren't even getting into position to attempt a real tackle on him.  Whether they are unblocked in the hole or at the edge.  He's one of the most unique outside zone runners I've ever seen at the college level, and certainly one of the best at following downfield blocks.  I have never seen someone so comfortable and efficient at cutting back or even reversing field on outside zone runs before.  That's just not done in D1 football and up, and it's so next level to me.  And when it comes to backfield creation, he presses the hole so well, that plays where normal good runners have to do something creative to make the first guy miss don't even typically come up for him.  And yet he never runs up the back of his blocks.  It's ridiculously good pace and timing--God given instincts and quickness.

 

He is so good, that I'm struggling to explain to myself why I'm resisting putting him in my top 20.  Guys who make high level football look easy, like they're playing Pop Warner at the Power 5 level are special.  Sometimes you just need to turn your brain off and enjoy a special player, and that's what I think needs to be done with Corum.

 

He had a team visit with New England.  I think there is a good chance he goes at 34.  Yes, there is a big chance that New England comes away with Drake Maye and Kingsley Suamataia.

 

I've been against trading up for a tackle as we need as much talent as possible.  However, I'm starting to think we should only for Kingsley (my other favorite Mimms will be long gone).  Carolina will still get a good WR at 33 if Kinglsey is on the board.  Baltimore at 31 seems like a potential trade down partner too.  I'd then trade down from 40 and recoup whatever was lost in the trade up from 36.  

 

Dallas is taking a RB in R2 100%.  I hope it's Benson as I don't want Brooks on that team either.  If we want RB, we'll get our shot at 71.

[LetMeSeeYourWarFace21]