Election 2024 & Presidential Cage Match: Dark Brandon 46 vs Felonious Farty 45

[tshile]

56 minutes ago, Fergasun said:

If you are a "center/moderate" and look at the GOP in any form during the Trump era, how are you not already in Biden's pocket?

Not that you were addressing me - but I’ve tried to touch on this before. 
 

I think a big problem with the people in this forum (using the word problem here loosely) is that it’s a pretty informed group, and some perspective on the general public is totally lost. 

 

We disagree on philosophy, or the role of government, or what we think are the best answers to a given problem, or what’s ‘right’ or a ‘right’ and what’s not. 
 

but it’s rare we, the regular posters in political threads, disagree on what the facts are. And even rarer that when we do disagree, we aren’t able to work through it and at least reach a consensus on what the facts are at the end. There also doesn’t tend to be a “short memory” problem with most of us. 
 

this is not representative of the general public. Not to claim we’re all experts, without bias, etc. but… as far as I can tell we’re about as opposite of the general public as we can be. 
 

as such we tend to not accurately account for where the general public is on things. And this leads to what you said that I just quoted…

 

In my opinion:

- general public has short memories. Relying on the general public’s sentiments with the 2020 election is a bad idea

- generally speaking when people are unhappy with the current situation, they vote out the incumbent. Policies ideas and facts about how things actually are (unemployment, inflation, etc) and who’s at fault for what don’t seem to matter much. What matters is “I am unhappy and therefore want a change in direction”

- i think it seems people are unhappy. I think that makes things unpredictable 

- both parties do this, but with the Biden win came the onslaught of liberals telling us the country supports them and their platform. I don’t think this is nearly as true as everyone always pretends. But with 2020 I think it was even less true than usual. People voted trump out, not Biden in. Down ballot results show people did not embrace the democrats platform - in fact republicans did very well. Biden won because people wanted Trump gone, not because the country wanted the dems platform

- I think liberals very much underestimate how much of the country is not onboard with things like the LGBT etc stuff. Especially the trans stuff. And especially how it all relates to schools 

 

 

that’s all to say that I think you’re making the mistake a lot of people on the left make - which is that your views on everything represent the majority of the country. And because you think that - it seems unfathomable that moderates would not already be lined up for Biden. 
 

but, I think history has shown, the way you’re viewing things is wrong. or at least, you shouldn’t have much confidence in the way you view things. 

[PeterMP]

21 minutes ago, Jabbyrwock said:

 

A vote for Biden is a defacto vote for Kamala Harris...and the center in this country is racist and misogynistic.  Oh, more subtly than their far right counterparts, to be sure...but its there.  Whether fair or not, Biden is percieved to be a few steps from deaths door.  Couple that with his VP with a vagina and skin tone darker than cream and your gonna lose a chunk of the middle.

 

I've already heard people using the above to start to convince themselves to not vote, or hold their nose and vote for Trump (though they talk around Kamala with "she just handled the border so badly" or some such, rather than just sayin they wont pull the proverbial lever for a woman).  They couldnt do it for Hillary, and where last time they did it for Biden, they've had four years to watch him move stiffer and look older.

 

...again...just what Ive heard.  But you asked.

 

My mom last election was talking about how a vote for Biden was really a vote for Harris because Biden was too old and not mentally competent enough to run things.  And Harris is an extreme left wing from CA (in my mom's view everybody in CA is left wing essentially).

 

Though I don't think anybody would consider me mom "the middle".

[tshile]

22 minutes ago, Jabbyrwock said:

 

A vote for Biden is a defacto vote for Kamala Harris...and the center in this country is racist and misogynistic.  Oh, more subtly than their far right counterparts, to be sure...but its there.  Whether fair or not, Biden is percieved to be a few steps from deaths door.  Couple that with his VP with a vagina and skin tone darker than cream and your gonna lose a chunk of the middle.

 

I've already heard people using the above to start to convince themselves to not vote, or hold their nose and vote for Trump (though they talk around Kamala with "she just handled the border so badly" or some such, rather than just sayin they wont pull the proverbial lever for a woman).  They couldnt do it for Hillary, and where last time they did it for Biden, they've had four years to watch him move stiffer and look older.

 

...again...just what Ive heard.  But you asked.

i think the knocks are Harris are legitimate without being racist or misogynistic. She’s a terrible candidate. The administration has obviously hid her as much as possible. She’s not well liked nor well received. Even people on the left have a problem with her. 
 

I posted this a while back but they need to dump her from the ticket. 
 

the problem is they’re dumping a black woman from the ticket. They won’t do it for obvious reasons. But in the sense of trying to win, they need a better person on the ticket. 

[Jabbyrwock]

20 minutes ago, tshile said:

i think the knocks are Harris are legitimate without being racist or misogynistic.

 

I agree.  But you'll lose far more of the "racist/misogynistic center" than the "rational center" to Trump over Harris.  The "rational center" will more likely just not vote.

[tshile]

37 minutes ago, Jabbyrwock said:

 

I agree.  But you'll lose far more of the "racist/misogynistic center" than the "rational center" to Trump over Harris.  The "rational center" will more likely just not vote.

I agree although I wonder how much of the “racist/misogynistic center” still exists. 
 

I would think the left has already chased most if not all of them away by now. 
 

but, people are weird. So who knows. 

[@DCGoldPants]

The knocks on Harris should be..... is she even doing anything? Thought she would be out there banging the drum loud for the admin. Speaking a lot, especially for female and minority causes. I wouldn't be shocked if Biden has her mostly sidelined, which I imagine would be because of some polling. Either way, 

 

https://time.com/6249434/kamala-harris-abortion-powerful-asset/

 

This talks about that stuff, and Time says I'm wrong. I must not be looking in the right places. I never see it. 

[tshile]

To be fair, if I have this right, the Administration set her up for failure in naming her the Border Czar (or whatever)

 

in doing so they publicly assigned her to be in charge of a problem that is multiple decades in the making, that both sides have created, that there is no real consensus on how to move forward, that is a major political football, and that would be held over he head because there was no way she could effectively fix or better the situation 

 

which is something I pointed out when they made the announcement. She was totally set up to fail with that move. 
 

(not that I think things would be better had they not - she seems to just not be likable and destined to always be in that rut) 

[The Evil Genius]

I've yet to read anything specifically that makes Harris a terrible candidate. Is she running the Biden presidency like Cheney did for Dubya? Is she supporting human rights violations like Pence did for Trump? I guess I'm largely confused what specifically she is doing that is so unpopular with the right. 

[@DCGoldPants]

1 hour ago, The Evil Genius said:

I've yet to read anything specifically that makes Harris a terrible candidate. Is she running the Biden presidency like Cheney did for Dubya? Is she supporting human rights violations like Pence did for Trump? I guess I'm largely confused what specifically she is doing that is so unpopular with the right. 

Doesn't matter if she's unpopular with the right. Need to make he liked byDems and Indy's more. She isn't doing anything terrible. But it feels to me that she isn't doing much positive out in the open for voters to see. 

Edited July 14, 2023 by @DCGoldPants

[Cooked Crack]

 

 

[88Comrade2000]

1 hour ago, tshile said:

Not that you were addressing me - but I’ve tried to touch on this before. 
 

I think a big problem with the people in this forum (using the word problem here loosely) is that it’s a pretty informed group, and some perspective on the general public is totally lost. 

 

We disagree on philosophy, or the role of government, or what we think are the best answers to a given problem, or what’s ‘right’ or a ‘right’ and what’s not. 
 

but it’s rare we, the regular posters in political threads, disagree on what the facts are. And even rarer that when we do disagree, we aren’t able to work through it and at least reach a consensus on what the facts are at the end. There also doesn’t tend to be a “short memory” problem with most of us. 
 

this is not representative of the general public. Not to claim we’re all experts, without bias, etc. but… as far as I can tell we’re about as opposite of the general public as we can be. 
 

as such we tend to not accurately account for where the general public is on things. And this leads to what you said that I just quoted…

 

In my opinion:

- general public has short memories. Relying on the general public’s sentiments with the 2020 election is a bad idea

- generally speaking when people are unhappy with the current situation, they vote out the incumbent. Policies ideas and facts about how things actually are (unemployment, inflation, etc) and who’s at fault for what don’t seem to matter much. What matters is “I am unhappy and therefore want a change in direction”

- i think it seems people are unhappy. I think that makes things unpredictable 

- both parties do this, but with the Biden win came the onslaught of liberals telling us the country supports them and their platform. I don’t think this is nearly as true as everyone always pretends. But with 2020 I think it was even less true than usual. People voted trump out, not Biden in. Down ballot results show people did not embrace the democrats platform - in fact republicans did very well. Biden won because people wanted Trump gone, not because the country wanted the dems platform

- I think liberals very much underestimate how much of the country is not onboard with things like the LGBT etc stuff. Especially the trans stuff. And especially how it all relates to schools 

 

 

that’s all to say that I think you’re making the mistake a lot of people on the left make - which is that your views on everything represent the majority of the country. And because you think that - it seems unfathomable that moderates would not already be lined up for Biden. 
 

but, I think history has shown, the way you’re viewing things is wrong. or at least, you shouldn’t have much confidence in the way you view things. 

2020 was about one issue only, whether to fire or rehire Trump.

 

 

If the public were really for all of the issues Biden ran on; they would’ve gave him the congress to pass things. They didn’t. While Dems kept house after 20, they lost seats in that election. They only won the Senate due to twin Georgia elections in January 21; when Trump convinced many gop voters not to trust the vote, so they stayed home. In a normal election;gop likely wins at least one of those ga seats.

 

 

Clinton in 92 and Obama in 08; had elections were voters supported what they ran on and gave them the congress to do that.

[88Comrade2000]

1 hour ago, tshile said:

i think the knocks are Harris are legitimate without being racist or misogynistic. She’s a terrible candidate. The administration has obviously hid her as much as possible. She’s not well liked nor well received. Even people on the left have a problem with her. 
 

I posted this a while back but they need to dump her from the ticket. 
 

the problem is they’re dumping a black woman from the ticket. They won’t do it for obvious reasons. But in the sense of trying to win, they need a better person on the ticket. 

Kamala was only picked because she was a black women since Joe promised that during the primaries.  
 

So, if he dumped her; he would need another black women to replace her. Replacing her with a man or someone not black; would probably cause some of the black vote to stay home.

 

Kamala has been a poor VP.

[tshile]

19 minutes ago, The Evil Genius said:

I've yet to read anything specifically that makes Harris a terrible candidate. Is she running the Biden presidency like Cheney did for Dubya? Is she supporting human rights violations like Pence did for Trump? I guess I'm largely confused what specifically she is doing that is so unpopular with the right. 

I know the left had a problem with how she was as a DA. 
 

I also know there’s been some reports that she’s not a nice/good person to her staff or to work with

 

Im not convinced she’s great in front of a camera either - but I’m not trying to say she’s awful 

 

and it seems generally speaking she’s just not well liked by the public regardless political affiliation

 

i don’t really know more than that and also have had a hard time understanding exactly what the issue is. But it seems to me the issue is indeed real. 

[LadySkinsFan]

33 minutes ago, @DCGoldPants said:

The knocks on Harris should be..... is she even doing anything? Thought she would be out there banging the drum loud for the admin. Speaking a lot, especially for female and minority causes. I wouldn't be shocked if Biden has her mostly sidelined, which I imagine would be because of some polling. Either way, 

 

https://time.com/6249434/kamala-harris-abortion-powerful-asset/

 

This talks about that stuff, and Time says I'm wrong. I must not be looking in the right places. I never see it. 

 

I've seen her much more lately, mostly about abortion and birth control. Plus she's talking some about the Biden administration's success in reducing inflation and raising up the poor and middle class. I expect to see more of her as the election season goes on. Women are especially drawn to her message and I'm guessing that this will increase. You have to remember that the first two years she had to sit in the Senate to cast a tie breaking vote so she wasn't out and about. I definitely agree with naming her to try to fix the border problem because that's not happening.

[hail2skins]

Wishful thinking, George:

 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2023/07/14/trump-desantis-not-inevitable/

[88Comrade2000]

Slow pace of Biden’s reelection campaign feeds Democrats’ 2024 anxiety

[tshile]

From article

Quote

In a race that many expect will likely come down to a few hundred thousand votes in a few states, the doubters argue that every day without a packed schedule on the stump will prove to voters that Biden’s age is as big a worry as they believe it is

this is exactly what I was talking about months ago when I brought up that 2020 had Covid going on which allowed the Biden campaign to run a significantly less active campaign and rely on YouTube or other alternatives to physically being all over the place all the time. 
 

It’s an issue and so far we haven’t seen them address it. 
 

that said… it’s July 2023. Little early to be demanding a full campaign schedule. Honestly it would probably be best to wait till the end of the Republican primary. Avoid messaging getting old. Avoid issues with changing economy and changing world causing platform ideas or slogans to become outdated. 

 

So while they’re saying what I always thought could be a problem, I think they’re a bit early declaring it absolutely a problem…

[TheDoyler23]

If Biden were running a packed campaign schedule he would be attacked for putting his campaign ahead of the country. It's July 2023. 

[The Evil Genius]

46 minutes ago, 88Comrade2000 said:

Slow pace of Biden’s reelection campaign feeds Democrats’ 2024 anxiety

 

Slow pace...and still lapping Trump and DeSantis in fundrasining money.

 

What's that tell you?

 

37 minutes ago, tshile said:

From article

this is exactly what I was talking about months ago when I brought up that 2020 had Covid going on which allowed the Biden campaign to run a significantly less active campaign and rely on YouTube or other alternatives to physically being all over the place all the time. 
 

It’s an issue and so far we haven’t seen them address it. 
 

that said… it’s July 2023. Little early to be demanding a full campaign schedule. Honestly it would probably be best to wait till the end of the Republican primary. Avoid messaging getting old. Avoid issues with changing economy and changing world causing platform ideas or slogans to become outdated. 

 

So while they’re saying what I always thought could be a problem, I think they’re a bit early declaring it absolutely a problem…

 

I'll put my money on the fit 80yo vs the morbidly obese 77yo. 

Edited July 14, 2023 by The Evil Genius

[tshile]

10 minutes ago, The Evil Genius said:

Slow pace...and still lapping Trump and DeSantis in fundrasining money.

I thought we wouldn’t see his fundraising numbers till tomorrow when the filing is due?

 

Another issue - in my opinion all CNN articles need to be looked at with more skepticism than usual. They were recently purchased by a pretty conservative person. I don’t follow their staff and changes closely but I can’t help but wonder when and how much influence that has or will cause …

[The Evil Genius]

4 minutes ago, tshile said:

I thought we wouldn’t see his fundraising numbers till tomorrow when the filing is due?

 

Another issue - in my opinion all CNN articles need to be looked at with more skepticism than usual. They were recently purchased by a pretty conservative person. I don’t follow their staff and changes closely but I can’t help but wonder when and how much influence that has or will cause …

 

I posted it on the last page.

 

4 hours ago, The Evil Genius said:

 

 

 

 

[China]

DeSantis weighs media strategy shift as donors fret about early campaign struggles: Sources

 

Only seven weeks into his 2024 campaign for the White House, Ron DeSantis is struggling to make a dent in former President Donald Trump's commanding lead in the Republican primary -- and the Florida governor's team is already looking for a possible media strategy reset while some top donors privately fret over the trajectory of the campaign, multiple sources tell ABC News.

 

Click on the link for the full article

[88Comrade2000]

So, of the current candidates; who drops out first?

Edited July 14, 2023 by 88Comrade2000

[PleaseBlitz]

2 hours ago, 88Comrade2000 said:

Slow pace of Biden’s reelection campaign feeds Democrats’ 2024 anxiety

 

Also from this very stupid article:

 

Quote

Anxiety, complaints and apocalyptic thinking that have often defined Democrats in the Biden years are about to get their latest Rorschach test, with the disclosure of fundraising for the first few months of his campaign – which must be filed by Saturday.

 

Concern over how it will be measured against the $86 million Barack Obama raised in the first few months after announcing his own reelection campaign in 2011, along with the slow pace of building out a campaign structure, is already feeding the latest round of frustration and worry described to CNN by almost two dozen current Biden aides, top Democratic operatives and donors, and alumni of other recent campaigns.

 

Some things are already clear: multiple big donors aren’t locking in. Grassroots emails are sometimes bringing in just a few thousand dollars.

 

24 hours later

 

 

 

 

[Fergasun]

I think we get to Trump, Vivek, DeSantis, and Christie.  If Youngkin enters than it will be Youngkin instead of Christie. 

 

Asa has got to be out first.. not even sure if he makes the debate.  Not sure what Pence is doing.  He obviously is in it for an administration job but if it is Trump he is screwed.  Nikki... Tim... same thing as Pence but less screwed.