2023 Comprehensive Draft Thread

[TheGoodBits]

40 minutes ago, woodpecker said:

I think his age could actually speed up his development. He’s going to be more mature both physically and mentally. I do agree with your other points though. But still he is a franchise QB potentially, and that makes him valuable. Maybe not at 16, but I would absolutely grab him if he falls to us in the second.

Also limits his upside. He probably looked better in college because of the factors you mentioned. Every prospect you take is a projection, you’re planning on them improving as they enter their athletic prime. For a guy already at that age, he better be the best college player you’ve ever seen. 

[RWJ]

3 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

Some from McGinn's scouts

 

LaPorta is my guy. 

[Skinsinparadise]

Thinking about them supposedly high on some non-first round TEs.

 

I think there is a good shot that Darnell Washington is there.

 

And if Bieniemy is looking to add speed -- I presume that means dynamic playmakers -- to me its possible that some of the F type TE's are in play.  Kincaid, Laporta -- or in the miod to later rounds, Mallory?

 

Even though Daniel Jeremiah is pushing Kincaid into the top 10 in his mocks, it wouldn't shock me if he's there at 47.  I'd be surprised but not shocked.  He's recovering from a lower back injury and he hasn't run so his measurables are unknown.

 

47 seems give or take the sweet spot for Laporta who IMO I'd like even better than Kincaid if he had Kincaid's hands.  but IMO really good player.

 

Mallory is sort of the poor man's version of both.  High character-intangibles which is up Rivera's alley.

 

All three of those TEs are willing blockers, none of them good blockes though IMO -- but they aren't like Jordan Reed level bad.  Reed was unwilling, too.

 

I think Brenton Strange might be in that mix -- he can block really well.  And he's not as fast as the other three.  But he's been one of my favorites in the class for some time because he gets open really quickly in the flat -- reminds me on that point alone of Kincaid on that front.  And he's a good YAC guy -- fits WCO.    

 

 

[Chump Bailey]

5 minutes ago, Koolblue13 said:

I am out on QB until day 3. Even then I'm not excited about it. I'd rather target LBer, TE, IOL.

 

I'm assuming the first 3 days are OT, CB, IOL. Probably in that order.

 

I'm with you though it would be hard personally for me if Levis were somehow to fall in our laps. I'd hesitate but ultimately would use that opportunity to trade down. I'm just speculating at this point because I'm not all that familiar with the 2024 QB class, but I get the feeling next year's QB is going to be light-years better than this one. I really like JJ McCarthy and a few others. We need to give Sam or Jacoby, whoever wins the competition the keys to the team for a test drive. 

[Skinsinparadise]

28 minutes ago, RWJ said:

LaPorta is my guy. 

 

I got a lot of guys at TE this year, Laporta among them. 

 

Two of your guys so to speak have been my guys too early on -- Laporta and Darnell Wright.  The draft media is a bit over the top for me about both now, but weren't back then.  So they felt cooler to me back then, now they feel like bandwagon players but I still dig both.

 

My attention on Laporta feels to me a little like Dotson did last year.  I was hyped on Dotson early, then got bored with him and backed off.  But then right around this time in the draft, I started hyping Dotson.

 

Feels the same to me with Laporta, I'll get over being bored with him and that he's sort of a what I call draft media bandwagon pick.  I'd be into Laporta at 47.  

 

He IMO is one of the best seperators in this class -- I like to look for TEs who get open fast in the flat, he's one of the best on that front.  And he's fun with the ball in his hands.

 

Good hands -- not great hands, not the best with contested catches.  So so blocker.  But he has the key things I look for in a TE, seperators on the first level -- seam routes, etc and who can break tackles with the ball in his hand.  Kincaid IMO is better -- better hands, better with contested catches, slightly better blocker.  If either is there at 47, they are on the table for me depending on who else is there.

 

 

 

 

Edited April 19, 2023 by Skinsinparadise

[Koolblue13]

5 minutes ago, Chump Bailey said:

 

I'm with you though it would be hard personally for me if Levis were somehow to fall in our laps. I'd hesitate but ultimately would use that opportunity to trade down. I'm just speculating at this point because I'm not all that familiar with the 2024 QB class, but I get the feeling next year's QB is going to be light-years better than this one. I really like JJ McCarthy and a few others. We need to give Sam or Jacoby, whoever wins the competition the keys to the team for a test drive. 

I think Sams floor is at least competent with a pretty high ceiling. I don't see any of these rookies coming in and taking the job from him outright, so why bother. Build the team.

 

The three biggest holes on the team last year were IOL, QB, LBer.  We've added 2 IOL and a QB. This team can take a huge leap this year if the Oline stays healthy and we can rush the passer better, while capitalizing on it in our secondary.

[mhd24]

Just now, Koolblue13 said:

I think Sams floor is at least competent with a pretty high ceiling. I don't see any of these rookies coming in and taking the job from him outright, so why bother. Build the team.

 

The three biggest holes on the team last year were IOL, QB, LBer.  We've added 2 IOL and a QB. This team can take a huge leap this year if the Oline stays healthy and we can rush the passer better, while capitalizing on it in our secondary.

I'd add CB to that list.  We have nothing behind BSJ (who has injury issues) and an aging Fuller (more of a zone CB now).  Minnesota (with a terrible defense) cut Dantzler.  Christian Holmes cost us the Giants game last year.  We have to take CB early in the draft.  

[Koolblue13]

3 minutes ago, mhd24 said:

I'd add CB to that list.  We have nothing behind BSJ (who has injury issues) and an aging Fuller (more of a zone CB now).  Minnesota (with a terrible defense) cut Dantzler.  Christian Holmes cost us the Giants game last year.  We have to take CB early in the draft.  

I agree that it's a need, but I'd put it below those three. We have only 1 LBer worth starting and generally have 2 on the field. None of which are pass rushers.

[Skinsinparadise]

The NFL draft is unpredictable. This data may hint at the Commanders’ plans.

 

During the gloriously frenetic and intensely speculative pre-draft process, every decision-maker in the NFL seems intent upon revealing as little as possible. And this year, Washington Commanders Coach Ron Rivera has played his part.

 

At his past few news conferences, Rivera has insisted the team plugged holes in free agency and will have full flexibility during the draft, which begins April 27.

 

“We’re not shopping hungry,” he said April 4. “We can really make good decisions based on [the] best player [available] or [the] best player to fit a specific need. We’re pretty excited about that.”

To glean insight from actions, not words, The Washington Post analyzed all 210 draft picks made by members of the Commanders’ front office — Rivera, General Manager Martin Mayhew, executive vice president of football and player personnel Marty Hurney and director of pro personnel Chris Polian — in Washington and at previous stops where they held GM titles. You can view the data here.

 

In his first two drafts, Rivera was willing to use early picks on promising athletes with little college experience, such as running back Antonio Gibson (726 career snaps), cornerback Benjamin St-Juste (800) and linebacker Jamin Davis (837).

In 2022, Washington prioritized more developed players who could contribute earlier. The pick with the fewest snaps was running back Brian Robinson Jr. (1,319), who spent five seasons at Alabama, and the average for all Commanders draftees was 1,998 snaps.

 

Luckily for Washington, every offensive lineman and defensive back projected to go in the top 50 this year has relatively substantial college experience. Georgia tackle Broderick Jones (1,396) and Maryland cornerback Deonte Banks (1,492) played the fewest snaps. Tennessee tackle Darnell Wright (2,746) and Florida guard O’Cyrus Torrence (3,065) played the most.Big-time college conferences

 

three years, six of the nine players Rivera drafted in the first three rounds came from the SEC or the Big Ten. Though the trend makes sense — they have basically become super-conferences — Washington seems to value those players more than the rest of the league does. Over the same span, other teams have picked SEC and Big Ten players in that range only 50.8 percent of the time.

 

Among the top 50 projected picks, many prospects come from those conferences. Some exceptions are Oregon cornerback Christian Gonzalez (Pac-12), Oklahoma tackle Anton Harrison (Big 12) and TCU offensive lineman Steve Avila (Big 12).

 

For offensive linemen, the most insightful data isn’t likely to be the historical tendencies of Commanders executives. The team has given full control of the offense to coordinator Eric Bieniemy, and Rivera has said Bieniemy will have “a lot of say” in the war room during the draft.

 

With Kansas City, almost all of Bieniemy’s guards and tackles stood 6-foot-5 or taller and weighed between 304 and 321 pounds. The two centers, Austin Reiter (6-3, 301) and Creed Humphrey (6-4, 302), were nearly identical — though the potential starting center Washington signed in free agency, Nick Gates (6-5, 312), is a bit larger.

During the NFL combine, the Commanders used at least 19 of their 45 formal interviews on offensive linemen. Since, they have hosted at least six — including Torrence, Wright and Avila, who are all bigger than the profile — on “top 30” visits.

 

Not a defensive back (in the first round)

Of the 29 first-rounders Washington brass picked, the most common positions were defensive line (eight), offensive line (six), running back (four) and linebacker (four). Chris Gamble, whom Hurney picked 28th for Carolina in 2004, is the only defensive back among them.

 

But the brass seems to have a physical prototype. Of the roughly 30 cornerbacks Washington’s executives drafted, nearly all are between 5-9 and 6-1 and 187 and 200 pounds. They have only drafted two lighter, three heavier and one taller (St-Juste in 2021).

 

Many players in this year’s draft, including Gonzalez, Banks and Jartavius Martin of Illinois (whom the team hosted on a “top 30” visit), fit the mold. But there are also outliers. Penn State’s Joey Porter Jr. and Kansas State’s Julius Brents are 6-2 and 6-3, respectively, and a few are outside the typical weight range, including Mississippi State’s Emmanuel Forbes (166 pounds), Illinois’ Devon Witherspoon (181) and Georgia’s Kelee Ringo (207).

 

What does this all mean?

By numbers and needs, the most probable outcome is Washington using its first pick on an offensive lineman from the SEC or the Big Ten with extensive experience. Five players fit that description: Jones, Wright, Torrence, Northwestern’s Peter Skoronski and Ohio State’s Paris Johnson Jr.

If Washington goes with a cornerback, there are some prototypical fits. But Mayhew, when asked why he seemed to like such a distinct physical profile, claimed it was a coincidence. He acknowledged prospects need an athletic baseline to play cornerback — speed, agility, body control — but what he values most — competitiveness — can’t be quantified.

 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2023/04/19/commanders-nfl-draft-predictions/

[FrFan]

 

[RWJ]

24 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

I got a lot of guys at TE this year, Laporta among them. 

 

Two of your guys so to speak have been my guys too early on -- Laporta and Darnell Wright.  The draft media is a bit over the top for me about both now, but weren't back then.  So they felt cooler to me back then, now they feel like bandwagon players but I still dig both.

 

My attention on Laporta feels to me a little like Dotson did last year.  I was hyped on Dotson early, then got bored with him and backed off.  But then right around this time in the draft, I started hyping Dotson.

 

Feels the same to me with Laporta, I'll get over being bored with him and that he's sort of a what I call draft media bandwagon pick.  I'd be into Laporta at 47.  

 

He IMO is one of the best seperators in this class -- I like to look for TEs who get open fast in the flat, he's one of the best on that front.  And he's fun with the ball in his hands.

 

Good hands -- not great hands, not the best with contested catches.  So so blocker.  But he has the key things I look for in a TE, seperators on the first level -- seam routes, etc and who can break tackles with the ball in his hand.  Kincaid IMO is better -- better hands, better with contested catches, slightly better blocker.  If either is there at 47, they are on the table for me depending on who else is there.

 

 

 

My wishlist as I always post will change.  LaPorta will be moving to #47. He's going early no doubt and I think he would fit EB nicely.  Question is, does EB think so. I hope so!  I still like Hooker and think only now if we pick up an extra 3rd do we draft him.  There are other needs like CB/MLB.  My guess is right now we move down enough spots to acquire a 3rd rounder with possibly a 5th/6th/7th rounder(s) added in.  I think we either select OT Wright or Harrison with our first pick.  LAC or JAX seem to be the area we move down to and no further and of course higher draft picks if JAX.  Just an educated guess, SIP.   

[Skinsinparadise]

Saints could be trade up partner and they typically like to trade up

 

 

 

[JamesMadisonSkins]

4 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

Saints could be trade up partner and they typically like to trade up

 

 

 

Maybe, if the Top 4 QBs are gone and they fear TB could take Hooker at 19.

 

The mock simulators constantly offer me 29 and 40 from NO for 16. I almost always accept it as the best offer. 

[RWJ]

Just now, Skinsinparadise said:

Saints could be trade up partner and they typically like to trade up

 

We did business with them last year and may do it again.  Who knows.  It's hard to see them moving up to #16 for Hooker but stranger things have happened.  I meant to tell you also we might have to stick at #16 as Pitt might want Wright at #17 below us.  

[Skinsinparadise]

2 minutes ago, RWJ said:

We did business with them last year and may do it again.  Who knows.  It's hard to see them moving up to #16 for Hooker but stranger things have happened.  I meant to tell you also we might have to stick at #16 as Pitt might want Wright at #17 below us.  

 

I get the impression listening to both Keim and Standig that its unlikely there will be a player that will push them to stick at 16, they seem to want to trade down.  Having said that getting trade partners isn't a given

Edited April 19, 2023 by Skinsinparadise

[method man]

1 hour ago, Koolblue13 said:

I agree that it's a need, but I'd put it below those three. We have only 1 LBer worth starting and generally have 2 on the field. None of which are pass rushers.

It would be an absolute shame reaching for a JAG LB in say rd 3 vs taking a legit future starter at CB given the depth of the CB class

 

We have 2 legit starting LBs in Davis and Barton and Davis is a good pass rusher

[samy316]

2 hours ago, Chump Bailey said:

 

I'm with you though it would be hard personally for me if Levis were somehow to fall in our laps. I'd hesitate but ultimately would use that opportunity to trade down. I'm just speculating at this point because I'm not all that familiar with the 2024 QB class, but I get the feeling next year's QB is going to be light-years better than this one. I really like JJ McCarthy and a few others. We need to give Sam or Jacoby, whoever wins the competition the keys to the team for a test drive. 

 

I think if Levis is there for them at 16, it's going to be very difficult to not grab him, or at least think about it.  Levis is an uber talented QB, from what I've seen, and he would be someone I'd draft, all things considered.  I understand the hesitation if he does last to 16.  It must mean that the other GM's aren't enamored with his tools.  It's too bad Richardson is going Top 5, because I'd pull the trigger on drafting him without any hesitation.  Richardson's ceiling his higher than any QB's ceiling in this draft, if he goes to the right team and the right system.  Hendon Hooker is an extremely interesting prospect.  He looks like Jalen Hurts, in the way that he plays.  If Hooker was available in Rd. 2, I'd definitely draft him.  Rd. 1 is tough, because I don't think he's a Rd. 1 QB, and it might be a bit of a reach to get him at 16.  If we were able to trade back into the end of Rd. 1 or have an early Rd. 2 pick, I'd definitely draft Hooker.

[Est.1974]

1 hour ago, Skinsinparadise said:

Saints could be trade up partner and they typically like to trade up

 

 

 

 Vikings looking at those same 2 QBs as well assuming Levis is long gone top 10.

[RWJ]

1 hour ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

I get the impression listening to both Keim and Standig that its unlikely there will be a player that will push them to stick at 16, they seem to want to trade down.  Having said that getting trade partners isn't a given

Came out with my final Draft list.  Here it is, SIP:

 

My 2023 NFL Draft Wishlist - Final
___________________________

16: R1 P16 OT Darnell Wright - Tennessee
47: R2 P16 TE Sam LaPorta - Iowa
97: R3 P34 CB Jatavius Martin, Illinois
118: R4 P16 LB Ivan Pace - Cincinnati
150: R5 P15 EDGE Viliami Fehoko - San Jose State
193: R6 P16 RB Deuce Vaughn - Kansas State
215: R6 P38 QB Jake Haener - Fresno State
233: R7 P16 RB Chris Rodriguez Jr. - Kentucky

[Koolblue13]

1 hour ago, method man said:

It would be an absolute shame reaching for a JAG LB in say rd 3 vs taking a legit future starter at CB given the depth of the CB class

 

We have 2 legit starting LBs in Davis and Barton and Davis is a good pass rusher

I didn't say draft a LBer in the 3rd. In fact, on the previous page, I said the 4rth round would be the target. Maybe 5th.

 

Barton being a legit starter is your opinion. That is not a fact. Yes, he had a good year, but that's it.

 

Davis is an average pass rusher right now, with room for growth.

[Skinsinparadise]

Mohamoud Diabate, played for Utah and Florida in his career.  LB, 6'3, 225.  5 sacks and a forced fumble.  @Est.1974 brought him up recently and if I recall liked his highlights.  I looked up his stats and mentioned he had almost a 20% missed tackle rate, which is very high but I haven't watched him, yet.  So I just did.

 

7th round project?  But Intriguing for me in that context.  Raw, but a good athlete.  Still 21 years old so perhaps he can be developed.  He could be used right now as a blitzer.  As a middle LB he has moments against the run -- good play recognition.  Not a stack and shed type but if you can keep him clean he makes tackles.  I saw some of the missed tackles in play -- his miss tackles are in the Landry variety going for big hits and whiffing.

 

I didn't see much in coverage.  He played more in the box and rushing the passer.  He seemed ok when I watched him, fluid, etc.   But PFF who has watched more games than me of his (I just watched 2) gave him a poor grade for coverage.  I'll trust them on it because i didn't see anything that stood out on that front.

 

He plays with a lot of hustle-energy.  Among his plays was one where he chased down Caleb Williams from behind and he had to cover some serious ground to catch up to make that play.

 

But I like his pass rushing chops.   The LBs including S. Dennis who got sacks within this draft group, often do it via hustle and getting skinny in the open hole set up for them by the D line.  Sanders has some moves, so does Pace.   Diabate also at times looks to have some real pass rushing chops. He has really good bend, unusual for an off the ball LB -- looks like a DE when he comes off the edge.  They used him everywhere on the D line -- right, left and inside.  And purely as a pass rusher, he's one of the better LBs I watched on that front.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited April 19, 2023 by Skinsinparadise

[Est.1974]

6 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

Some from McGinn's scouts

On TE’s, just watched some of Dalton Kincaid. Looks about the best of group from what I’ve seen.

[tmandoug1]

Question: (Forgive if asked and answered).

 

For those of you with the knowledge, where would you rank The Howler in this years QB class?

 

 

[Est.1974]

41 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 Diabate also at times looks to have some real pass rushing chops. He has really good bend, unusual for an off the ball LB -- looks like a DE when he comes off the edge.  They used him everywhere on the D line -- right, left and inside.  And purely as a pass rusher, he's one of the better LBs I watched on that front.

When I was looking at him for the ES mock draft, a comparison player noted was Shaka Toney. 6-3, 230 and we drafted in the 7th.

[Darth Tater]

3 hours ago, Chump Bailey said:

 

I'm with you though it would be hard personally for me if Levis were somehow to fall in our laps. I'd hesitate but ultimately would use that opportunity to trade down. I'm just speculating at this point because I'm not all that familiar with the 2024 QB class, but I get the feeling next year's QB is going to be light-years better than this one. I really like JJ McCarthy and a few others. We need to give Sam or Jacoby, whoever wins the competition the keys to the team for a test drive. 

Jacoby should not be given the keys as he's one and done and will get us to around 500 at least. Sam either will probably either prove himself or we will likely be in position to at least make a big-time move. What I would love is if a big-name QB falls, we make enough noise that we might go that way and Minnesota gives us a sweetheart package of picks for 2024 that we use to make a big move in 2024 (if needed) or have lots of picks stockpiled.