The Official '22 Draft Armchair GM Historical Record Thread

[Skinsinparadise]

Just now, Going Commando said:

 

No I made my choices based entirely on my board and the hypothetical choices I made in each round.  So when I picked Calvin Austin at 113, in that scenario we didn't get Jahan Dotson at 16, we got Devin Lloyd.

 

ok well that's a different way to do it than I did it.  I was reacting each round to what they did so i was recalling what I was feeling when the actual draft was going on.  If the draft was controlled from me from the start to the finish it would be.

 

1.  16. Devin Lloyd

2.  47. Trey McBride

3.  98.  Dameon Pierce

4.  113. Sam Howell

5.  144. Khalil Shakir

6.  149. Thomas Booker

7.  230.  Marquis Hayes

8.  240. Kevin Austin

[RWJ]

1 hour ago, Skinsinparadise said:

As for who would have I taken

 

1. 16 -- Devin Lloyd.  My backup would have been Zion Johnson

 

But I like Dotson.  He was a dude I touted from the college season eons ago.  i lost interest but then regained my interest months back when I was able to dive deep.  So i was happy with the pick overall.  It doesn't bother me that Kiper or whomever thinks they could have gotten him at 22 or whatever.  If they didn't pick up a 3rd and 4th for trading down then it might bother me a little.  But they did a nice job trading down IMO in this draft and tough for me to hit them for the idea that you should have taken a chance and lose the guy they want. 

 

According to Keim he was in their top 5 list for WRs and liked him better than Burks.   Safe pick IMO.  High floor.  Dotson was one of the guys I highlighted in yellow among my position players, meaning i counted him among "my guys list". So no complaints.  I digged it.   And I dig it even more the more I digest.

 

I talked about his personality before ther draft and watched some more on that front this morning.  The dude's intangibles come off Terry McLaurin like special.  So with more time i am liking it even more.

 

2.  47.  Trey McBride.    The more i watched him, the more i liked him.  Baller.

 

As for Mathis, I was neutral about the pick intially.  Keim kept saying be braced for a D lineman.  So psychologically I was ready for it.  But I wasn't ready for it in the 2nd round.  I said about my rankings that the D line is the spot I barely watched so take those picks with a grain of salt.  So i didn't really dive deep into Mathis and I still haven't but i will.  But given time, I've learned to like the pick.   It makes sense.  The third DT is basically a starter.  It's a heavy rotational spot.  Ionnadis played 60% of the snaps last year.  It also in theory prevents the ballyhooed D line from continuing at least in theory if they lose Payne for cap reasons.

 

An Alabama run stuffer with 10.5 sacks.  In the old days, we'd salivate to get someone like this let alone in the 2nd round.  There is a really good track record with Alabama D lineman including guys taking in the 2nd round or later. 

 

Reading about him, he's a boisterous personality, team captain.  Apparently, infectious personality.  i talked about this on the draft thread previously which is I think we needed a dude with that type of personality on the defense.  We got so many quiet guys.  And apparently Tim Settle was the boisterous one in the D line locker room.  So it feels like Mathis fills that vaccum. 

 

3. 98.  Dameon Pierce.  My backup was ironically Spiller and Robinson and said so on the draft thread well before that pick was made.  i wanted one of those three once the top 2 were gone.  And those three were all close for me.

 

Robinson:  I was jazzed about the pick  I liked Pierce slightly more but Robinson is the same flavor.  This pick gave me the 2nd biggest jolt in real time when it happened.   Biggest jolt was for Howell.

 

4. 113.  Sam Howell.  Backup for that spot: Charlie Kolar.  

 

i was pounding the table once we got to this spot for Howell.  He's my 3rd ranked QB and I put Corral only one spot ahead of him in my top 100.   Value at this spot was ridiculous.  Obviously i had no idea he'd keep dropping.  Kolar was my favorite TE left on the board at this juncture.  I spent a lot of time pushing Kolar on the draft thread for months.

 

As for Percy Butler.  I watched a lot of safeties, he's not one of them.  I don't really have an opinion on him yet.  But I'll get to watching him.  Chris Simms loves him. Chad Reuter too who does draft rankings for NFL.com.  Some don't.  I don't tend to judge players purely based on mock drafters takes so I'll keep an open mind.  We have a history of taking athletic safeties in the 4th round who don't end up more than special teams players and we've done that now under multiple regimes:  Phillip Thomas, Nicholson, Apke and now Butler. 

 

5.  144.  Sam Howell.

 

They took the player I wanted at that spot.  

 

6.  149.  Cole Turner

 

Back to back they took the players I wanted.  I started clamoring for Turner when the TEs were coming off the board.  He's the 2nd player they took who was in "my guys" list.   I mentioned as soon as they traded down to land two 5th round picks that its likely either Strong and Turner or Howell and Turner.  Felt though Howell would be gone.  I actually pm'd @RWJ when they traded down that's what I think they will do.  Said it on the draft thread too.  I communicated to @RWJ because he was very into the backup QB idea,

 

I've talked about Cole Turner plenty on this thread and some on the new Cole Turner thread.  In short, in the mid to later rounds he was an attractive F TE target for me because of his hands/catch radius that fit Wentz's wheel house. 

 

7.  230 Marquis Hayes

 

Hayes to me was a really solid high floor OG.  I never studied Chris Paul.  But i like his profile -- big dude who can run and I trust Masko. 

 

8. 240.  I was really pushing a bunch of players here not fixated on one.  If i had to pick one.  I'll pick a dude I actually pushed a little on and off for months.   Kevin Austin.

 

I know nothing about the corner they selected but I'll watch him.  I wasn't in love with Kevin Austin.  But i thought he was somewhat underrated.  Played for a big school.  Put up good numbers.  He can run, good size.  He went undrafted.   

 

 

@Skinsinparadise You are blessing to have on ES.  Many realize that.  I thank you for your input, great analysis and posts.  @KDawg posts are appreciated too.  A special shout out to @HigSkin too.  There are many more, but I wanted to mention you all.  Thank you all.  😀🙏 

[Going Commando]

One of the takeaways from the "who would you have picked" exercise is how much getting a great class where you get high value at a diversity of positions depends on luck.  A lot of time your best value pick opportunities end up being clustered at the same positions throughout the draft, which means you're going to end up cutting good rookie prospects if you double or triple down.

 

My feeling about the class I would have picked is that it doesn't really look much better then the one we actually got.  The main point of potential differentiation could be that I picked Malik Willis instead of Sam Howell, but QB outcomes depend so heavily on situation that there is certainly a world where Sam Howell ends up being a better pro than Willis.  We'll see, maybe Willis ends up becoming the next Michael Vick and Sam Howell never really gets an opportunity to start here.  Or maybe Howell takes over for Wentz and becomes the next Kurt Cousins and Willis never pans out, I couldn't predict which outcome is more likely.  And it's also a very different world for our QB room picking Willis in the 2nd vs Howell in the 5th.  Willis in the 2nd would have been Deja Vu for Carson Wentz and basically an open acknowledgement that we don't really believe in him yet.

 

Other than that, Devin Lloyd vs Jahan Dotson kind of feels like Fred Warner vs Emmanuel Sanders.  Maybe Warner ends up being more valuable and having a higher peak of play, but Sanders is a 2 time Probowler with 79 career AV.  Their difference in value isn't that much.  I think I got a good corner, which would have been nice to get in our real class, but I'm fine with Robinson over my RB pick (Allgeir).  I think the value of the RB position is drastically underrated by draftniks and "analytics" minded observers, it's scarcity is much greater than they account for, and having a depth of strong backs is mandatory if you don't have an elite QB.  So I really like that we went out and got one of the best backs in the class (who is definitely a potential starter), especially since he brings such a markedly different style/talent to the position from our incumbents.

 

The opportunities for home run value I hoped for (stuff like Metchie or Walker at 47 but they went a couple of picks earlier, Nakobe Dean at our third but he went a bit earlier) didn't really materialize with this draft.  And I would not have waited around for the home run value at QB we did end up getting in the 5th round.  While Dotson over Lloyd is a reach IMO, and Robinson over Coby Bryant felt like a bit of a reach to me too, neither were bad reaches.  Mathis and Butler were probably the only real reaches we made, that's not bad.  This feels like a better draft than we've had in a while, and this was a challenging class where differentiating between the WRs, QBs, and Edges was tough.

[DWinzit]

5 minutes ago, Going Commando said:

One of the takeaways from the "who would you have picked" exercise is how much getting a great class where you get high value at a diversity of positions depends on luck.  A lot of time your best value pick opportunities end up being clustered at the same positions throughout the draft, which means you're going to end up cutting good rookie prospects if you double or triple down.

 

My feeling about the class I would have picked is that it doesn't really look much better then the one we actually got.  The main point of potential differentiation could be that I picked Malik Willis instead of Sam Howell, but QB outcomes depend so heavily on situation that there is certainly a world where Sam Howell ends up being a better pro than Willis.  We'll see, maybe Willis ends up becoming the next Michael Vick and Sam Howell never really gets an opportunity to start here.  Or maybe Howell takes over for Wentz and becomes the next Kurt Cousins and Willis never pans out, I couldn't predict which outcome is more likely.  And it's also a very different world for our QB room picking Willis in the 2nd vs Howell in the 5th.  Willis in the 2nd would have been Deja Vu for Carson Wentz and basically an open acknowledgement that we don't really believe in him yet.

 

Other than that, Devin Lloyd vs Jahan Dotson kind of feels like Fred Warner vs Emmanuel Sanders.  Maybe Warner ends up being more valuable and having a higher peak of play, but Sanders is a 2 time Probowler with 79 career AV.  Their difference in value isn't that much.  I think I got a good corner, which would have been nice to get in our real class, but I'm fine with Robinson over my RB pick (Allgeir).  I think the value of the RB position is drastically underrated by draftniks and "analytics" minded observers, it's scarcity is much greater than they account for, and having a depth of strong backs is mandatory if you don't have an elite QB.  So I really like that we went out and got one of the best backs in the class (who is definitely a potential starter), especially since he brings such a markedly different style/talent to the position from our incumbents.

 

The opportunities for home run value I hoped for (stuff like Metchie or Walker at 47 but they went a couple of picks earlier, Nakobe Dean at our third but he went a bit earlier) didn't really materialize with this draft.  And I would not have waited around for the home run value at QB we did end up getting in the 5th round.  While Dotson over Lloyd is a reach IMO, and Robinson over Coby Bryant felt like a bit of a reach to me too, neither were bad reaches.  Mathis and Butler were probably the only real reaches we made, that's not bad.  This feels like a better draft than we've had in a while, and this was a challenging class where differentiating between the WRs, QBs, and Edges was tough.

The best move of the draft was moving back from 11 and coming away with Dotson who I had virtually equal to Olave. As thrilled as I was with the Dotson selection, I will always think about leaving Lloyd on the board. It was our opportunity to fulfill a huge gap vacated by Fletcher years ago.  I am hoping the improved Davis/Holcomb tandem plus the other additions don't make me think back with regret and Dotson becomes a legit starter and star like I believe he is capable of. We can analyze the picks all day but in the end, they reached a little for some of the picks but made a valiant effort to fill so many slots. I was pleased with the draft. Actually ended out with 3 of 15 from my pound the table list.

 

I stare at the third round amazed at the talent that was there.

[Going Commando]

Another way to put a big challenge of the draft:

 

It's one thing to recognize the opportunities for value - seeing the league undervalue particular players (Metchie, Dean, Linderbaum for me).

 

It's a different challenge to get into position to exploit those opportunities for value.  The grandslam class for me would have been something like: Rd 1 - Jordan Davis, Rd 2 - John Metchie, Rd 3 - Nakobe Dean, wasn't possible after making the Carson Wentz trade, and we needed a QB.

 

 

[mhd24]

19 minutes ago, Going Commando said:

Another way to put a big challenge of the draft:

 

It's one thing to recognize the opportunities for value - seeing the league undervalue particular players (Metchie, Dean, Linderbaum for me).

 

It's a different challenge to get into position to exploit those opportunities for value.  The grandslam class for me would have been something like: Rd 1 - Jordan Davis, Rd 2 - John Metchie, Rd 3 - Nakobe Dean, wasn't possible after making the Carson Wentz trade, and we needed a QB.

 

 

 

 

Are we just wrong on Dean?  The whole league waited until the 3rd round.  I mean, teams weren't scarred of injury issues with Jameson Williams.  It has to be something else.  Like JOK had supposed injury issues last year, but he still went mid 2nd.  There has to be something else.

[KDawg]

40 minutes ago, mhd24 said:

 

 

Are we just wrong on Dean?  The whole league waited until the 3rd round.  I mean, teams weren't scarred of injury issues with Jameson Williams.  It has to be something else.  Like JOK had supposed injury issues last year, but he still went mid 2nd.  There has to be something else.

 

He's likely out for the year.

 

Damone Clark is as good of a prospect as Dean and had he not had a major injury he would have gone early, maybe even in that 1/2 space. Clark went #176 overall. 

 

He may even suit up this year.

 

Dean is a good football player but now with the pec tear and rumored soft tissue issues to begin with he's an injury risk. We weren't wrong about him as a player, he went as he as he did because of how talented he is. They overlooked the injuries and potential injuries and snagged him anyways. That says a ton about his talent. 

[Spaceman Spiff]

Man, you guys are nerds.

[KDawg]

19 minutes ago, Spaceman Spiff said:

Man, you guys are nerds.

Yup. Proud of it, too. 

[Chump Bailey]

Sorry @Going Commando for not posting in here. I just saw this thread today. Nice job on your boards.

 

 

[Going Commando]

1 hour ago, mhd24 said:

Are we just wrong on Dean?  The whole league waited until the 3rd round.  I mean, teams weren't scarred of injury issues with Jameson Williams.  It has to be something else.  Like JOK had supposed injury issues last year, but he still went mid 2nd.  There has to be something else.

 

Nah.  He's a superstar.  I've watched Georgia's defensive cut ups over and over again.  So many plays where it's just an explosion and then you see #17 popping up after and making that fraternity sign that he does.  The dude has next level aggression, instincts, and athleticism, and instincts and aggression translate to the NFL--and not just to success but to stardom.  That Georgia defense was fearsome.  Unbelievably fast and aggressive and swaggering and Dean was the smartest and most aggressive and badass one of them

 

The only thing holding him back is health, otherwise Philly just got the next London Fletcher.  We probably messed up and should have picked  him at 47.  Owusu-Koromoah was underdrafted too, so were Fred Warner, Darius Leonard, and Bobby Wagner.  The truth is day two is probably the default range for most LBer prospects, especially ones who aren't body beautiful or don't have elite size, or that have an injury that might effect them heading into camp.  All of that describes Dean, which is why I could tell heading into the draft that he was probably going to still be there in the second round.  But I'm still very confident he'll end up being one of the best players from the class health-provided.

 

Honestly, LBers are the RBs of the defense and I think it's more common for LBers to be underdrafted relative to their quality as players than it is for them to get drafted where you'd rank them on a pure BPA scale.  It's to the point where you can kind of bet on getting discounts at the position every year.  Going back to 2010, the true stack linebackers who were reached on in the first round:

 

2022 - No reaches

2021 - Jamin Davis (big reach)

2020 - Jordyn Brooks (Thought this was a reach at the time, but now I'm not so sure), Kenneth Murray (reach), Patrick Queen (IMO a reach, but not a consensus on this)

2019 - Devin White (I had him as a slight reach but he's proven that wrong and a lot of people had him as fair value), Devin Bush (big reach)

2018 - None

2017 - None

2016 - Darron Lee (reach)

2015 - Stephone Anthony (big reach, should have been a third rounder at best)

2014 - None

2013 - Alec Ogletree (bit of a reach IMO, he should have been a second rounder but he got picked 30)

2012 - None

2011 - None

2010 - None

 

So reaching on stack LBers is very uncommon and they almost always get drafted at fair or + value.  I think the LBers from this class were a continuation of that general trend.

1 minute ago, Chump Bailey said:

Sorry @Going Commando for not posting in here. I just saw this thread today. Nice job on your boards.

 

No worries, you should still post the board and the position rankings that you made here if you want to.  The main function of this thread is to just keep the record of our boards in one place and I know you already posted yours in the draft thread.

[KillBill26]

I'm sure this has been discussed somewhere on this board I'm sorry that I missed it, but I read that nakobe Dean was a full participant at eagles rookie camp.  I thought the reason he dropped in the draft was because of an injury and subsequent refusal to get surgery that would cause him to miss most if not all of this upcoming season.  If he is already able to play, it makes Mathis over Dean in the second even more puzzling.  Or is it just the fact that refusing surgery means higher risk of reinjury?