The Official '22 Draft Armchair GM Historical Record Thread

[Going Commando]

This is the thread for us to post our Big Boards, Position Rankings, and "Pound the Table For These Guys" lists. 

 

And immediately following the draft, this is the place to post your "Who I would Have Picked" list.

 

There is only one rule, after you post your list and/or rankings, don't change them later on.  The point of this exercise is for us to make these things without the benefit of hindsight and to make an official record of our (dumb) draft takes for 2022, and eventually use them against each other in arguments years down the road.

 

I'll start with my own Position Rankings, which took an alarmingly long time to make:

 

 

 

[KDawg]

 

 

First 32 Drafted predictions:

 

 

Names in green are guys I've championed.

 

Obviously left the easy ones off.

 

I didn't highlight Sam Williams. Pretend he is. 

 

EDIT: Editing this on 5/3/22 - I thought I had Brian Robinson highlighted. I don't here. In the draft thread I touted him as RB3 and a potential gem several times. He should be green. 

Edited May 3, 2022 by KDawg

[petey hodge]

Somewhere in this mix is The Next Derrius Guice.  
 

 

and we’re going to trade up to draft him.

 

 

😩

[Skinsinparadise]

The guys in yellow are guys I spent a lot of time on and I like more than the typical mock drafter.  Hamilton I guess is the exception, there are some mock drafters higher on him than me albiet i dio like him a lot, but I ending up spending more time on Hamilton than any other player save the QBs.

 

 

Edited April 28, 2022 by Skinsinparadise

[Skinsinparadise]

@Going Commando

 

The ones on your list that jump out to me.  Malcolm Rodriguez, I almost put him on my guys list because he's a bit off the radar and I liked him, you have him ranked higher than me but he I liked him and see almost no buzz for him.

 

I almost put Rachaad White as one of my guys.  I talked about him months back, he was one of my early pushes.  Some guys overtook him in my mind.  But I do really like his size and his pass weapon features.

 

I see you hit Fitzpatrick who I mentioned yesterday -- he's a lot of fun to watch as a blocker 😀

 

 

Edited April 28, 2022 by Skinsinparadise

[Going Commando]

I can't for the life of me figure out how to format my Big Board in an economical and clear way, but here is a link and some images of it:

 

 https://thedraftnetwork.com/bigboard/pDQfMOQPMD

 

 

 

 

[Going Commando]

57 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

@Going Commando

 

The ones on your list that jump out to me.  Malcolm Rodriguez, I almost put him on my guys list because he's a bit off the radar and I liked him, you have him ranked higher than me but he I liked him and see almost no buzz for him.

 

I almost put Rachaad White as one of my guys.  I talked about him months back, he was one of my early pushes.  Some guys overtook him in my mind.  But I do really like his size and his pass weapon features.

 

I see you hit Fitzpatrick who I mentioned yesterday -- he's a lot of fun to watch as a blocker 😀

 

Yeah I'm kind of surprised that Rodriguez is not well regarded given his production and prominence on a top 10 team, but I think there is some justifiable skepticism about Big 12 defenders.  I really liked him though, and for me he's kind of a poor man's Nakobe Dean.

 

I really like Rachaad White.  I think his open field speed and creativity are maybe just a step down from elite, and honestly, it kind of felt like he was the last dynamic player at the position after Hall and Walker.  I really really like Tyler Allgeir, but he's just not fast.  And I really like Pierre Strong and James Cook, both whom are very fast, but they're not strong (ironic).

 

On sheer talent and intangibles, I wanted to put Zamir White as RB3.  But I can't rank a guy whose torn both his ACLs that high.  I do not think he's going to have a long NFL career unfortunately.  I'd pick him and hope for the best, but realistically expect to get like four years at the most with him.

 

I'm kind of going out on a limb with Fitzpatrick since he had no college production to project, but Lance Zierlein really sold me on him.  That UGA offense was never going to throw him the ball.  But the blocking excellence is interesting enough that I'd be interested in him in like the sixth round maybe.  Probably about the same range as I would draft Jake Ferguson, and it took me a while to figure out how I would rank the two.

 

I'm going to go through everyone's rankings and boards and comment on anything that jumps out to me, so don't think I'm ignoring you if I haven't said anything yet.  I was pretty much scrambling to get my lists finished and formatted up until this afternoon, and didn't have time to really read through anyone's work yet.

[Going Commando]

Here is my pound the table list of guys that I like a little bit higher than the consensus.  I'm a Tyler fan this year.

 

- Tyler Allgeir

- Tyler Linderbaum

- Tyler Smith

- John Metchie

- Isaiah Likely

 

- Jalen Pitre

- Coby Bryant

- Devin Lloyd

[bowhunter]

If available, I'll be proud to have added:

Kyle Hamilton

Devon Lloyd

Kenneth Walker

Troy Anderson

Lewis Cine

Carson Strong

 

and any OL listed as having a "mean streak"

 

[86 Snyder]

Y’all are so fancy…

 

Bust:  London, Burks, Watson

 

Stud: Jameson, Wilson

 

Pros: Olave, Dotson

 

 

 

Edited April 28, 2022 by 86 Snyder

[DWinzit]

Guys I am pounding the table for:

 

Dax Hill

Jalen Pitre

Jermaine Johnson

Devin Lloyd

Christian Harris

Chad Muma

Cam Taylor-Britt

Garrett Wilson

Johan Dotson

Greg Dulcich

Cole Turner

Carson Strong

Dameon Pierce

Brian Robinson

Luke Goedeke

 

EDIT- @KDawg slapping them on the table with Howell at QB1!

 

Edited April 28, 2022 by DWinzit

[KDawg]

22 minutes ago, 86 Snyder said:

Y’all are so fancy…

 

Bust:  London, Burks, Watson

 

Stud: Jameson, Wilson

 

Pros: Olave, Dotson

 

 

 

So you don’t like big receivers. Got it.

17 minutes ago, DWinzit said:

Guys I am pounding the table for:

 

Dax Hill

Jalen Pitre

Jermaine Johnson

Devin Lloyd

Christian Harris

Chad Muma

Cam Taylor-Britt

Garrett Wilson

Johan Dotson

Greg Dulcich

Cole Turner

Carson Strong

Dameon Pierce

Brian Robinson

Luke Goedeke

 

EDIT- @KDawg slapping them on the table with Howell at QB1!

 

Yup. I think he will be the best pro of the group. Willis has more overall upside and if he develops he will be tough to top. But I think Howell is better than anyone gives him credit for.

[86 Snyder]

2 minutes ago, KDawg said:

So you don’t like big receivers. Got it.

Nah, just picky.  I liked Pittman, Metcalf, Brown, Sutton, Doctson (lol)…lots of others over the years.  I hated Harry, JJAW, Higgins…

 

Just don’t like these ones.  I’m right much more than wrong but do whiff sometimes for sure.

[Est.1974]

Ignoring the first round which could go in all kinds of directions, my somewhat random list of post round one targets are   :

 

Pierce RB

Brisker S

Geodeke OL

Beavers LB

Mathis CB

Strong QB

Bellinger TE

Marcus Jones CB

Calvin Austin WR

[DWinzit]

You all should be ashamed of yourselves not having Cole Strange in your top 30 

[KDawg]

5 minutes ago, DWinzit said:

You all should be ashamed of yourselves not having Cole Strange in your top 30 

#83 baby!

[Skinsinparadise]

3 minutes ago, KDawg said:

#83 baby!

 

Got you beat, I had him at 72. 

[Going Commando]

He wasn't even top 100 for me.  I had him as IOL8.

 

I'm afraid to criticize the pick even though it feels like one of the worst reaches that I can recall.  For the past few off-seasons, it's looked like Belichick has lost his fastball.  But he's one of the greatest football minds in the history of the sport and he routinely sees value where others can't.  Strange will probably end up a rookie starter for a 12 win team and Belichick will get the last laugh.

[KDawg]

1 hour ago, Going Commando said:

He wasn't even top 100 for me.  I had him as IOL8.

 

I'm afraid to criticize the pick even though it feels like one of the worst reaches that I can recall.  For the past few off-seasons, it's looked like Belichick has lost his fastball.  But he's one of the greatest football minds in the history of the sport and he routinely sees value where others can't.  Strange will probably end up a rookie starter for a 12 win team and Belichick will get the last laugh.

 

I think Strange will play very well for New England.

 

I also think Belichick is somewhat stuck in the old ways of football and not adapting to the newer style of offense that is prevalent in today's NFL. I think that is both a major advantage and detriment.

 

Advantage: Everyone else is scrambling for premium modern day positions. Belichick is picking up guys to build a roster the old school way. By doing that, he gets the cream of the crop for that style of football because everyone else is so hyped on pure speed/measurables/guys who fit modern day offenses. It's also an advantage because the league tends to be cyclical and if it comes back around that way Belichick has the roster built.

 

Disadvantage: If it doesn't swing back sometime soon his roster doesn't have the talent to compete with the high octane offenses and speed defined defenses in the modern day NFL. 

[Going Commando]

Here's my list of guys that I would have picked if it had been my job to make our choices:

 

16 - Devin Lloyd, LB, Utah
47 - Malik Willis, QB, Liberty
98 - Coby Bryant, DB, Cincinnati
113 - Calvin Austin, WR, Memphis
144 - Jamaree Salyer, OL, Georgia
149 - Tyler Allgeir, RB, BYU
230 - Zakobe McClain, LB, Auburn
240 - Rasheed Walker, OL, Penn St

 

I'm making a record of this so that I can have a memory of my takes completely unbiased by hindsight.  I'd love it if everyone who participates in our draft thread would make one too.

[Est.1974]

My picks would have been :
 

1-16 : Jahan Dotson WR
2-47 : Jaquan Brisker S
3-98 : Damien Pierce RB
4-113 : Damarri Mathis DB
5-144 : Sam Howell QB*
5-149 : Darrian Beavers LB
7-230 : Thayer Munford OL
7-240 : Kevin Austin WR

 

*Note - Strong would have been a consideration here, but no chance you can pass over Howell when he was still there at 144.

 

I also wanted TE Bellinger and could have taken him at 98, however to say I would have taken him there wouldn’t be right. I didn’t think he was rated higher than the 5th.

Edited May 1, 2022 by Est.1974

[KDawg]

My weighting positional value/needs but still based on my board:

 

1-16 : Jahan Dotson, WR, Penn State - I was heavy on the WR train all offseason. Wouldn't have changed that. He was WR4 in my rankings.
2-47 : Travis Jones, DT, UConn
3-98 :  Brian Robinson, Jr., RB, Alabama - My RB3, I harped RB all offseason and touted BRob as a potential gem. 
4-113 :  Sam Howell, QB, North Carolina - QB1 for me. In the 4th. Would have gotten gun shy and pulled the trigger here.
5-144 :  Marquise Hayes, IOL, Oklahoma
5-149 : Rasheed Walker, OT, Penn State
7-230 : Damone Clark, LB, LSU
7-240 : Smoke Monday, S, Auburn

 

Priority UDFA: Bubba Bolden, S, Miami

 

Figure we should throw in one. I mentioned him as a late rounder/UDFA in the draft thread as well. 

Edited May 1, 2022 by KDawg

[Skinsinparadise]

As for who would have I taken

 

1. 16 -- Devin Lloyd.  My backup would have been Zion Johnson

 

But I like Dotson.  He was a dude I touted from the college season eons ago.  i lost interest but then regained my interest months back when I was able to dive deep.  So i was happy with the pick overall.  It doesn't bother me that Kiper or whomever thinks they could have gotten him at 22 or whatever.  If they didn't pick up a 3rd and 4th for trading down then it might bother me a little.  But they did a nice job trading down IMO in this draft and tough for me to hit them for the idea that you should have taken a chance and lose the guy they want. 

 

According to Keim he was in their top 5 list for WRs and liked him better than Burks.   Safe pick IMO.  High floor.  Dotson was one of the guys I highlighted in yellow among my position players, meaning i counted him among "my guys list". So no complaints.  I digged it.   And I dig it even more the more I digest.

 

I talked about his personality before ther draft and watched some more on that front this morning.  The dude's intangibles come off Terry McLaurin like special.  So with more time i am liking it even more.

 

2.  47.  Trey McBride.    The more i watched him, the more i liked him.  Baller.

 

As for Mathis, I was neutral about the pick intially.  Keim kept saying be braced for a D lineman.  So psychologically I was ready for it.  But I wasn't ready for it in the 2nd round.  I said about my rankings that the D line is the spot I barely watched so take those picks with a grain of salt.  So i didn't really dive deep into Mathis and I still haven't but i will.  But given time, I've learned to like the pick.   It makes sense.  The third DT is basically a starter.  It's a heavy rotational spot.  Ionnadis played 60% of the snaps last year.  It also in theory prevents the ballyhooed D line from continuing at least in theory if they lose Payne for cap reasons.

 

An Alabama run stuffer with 10.5 sacks.  In the old days, we'd salivate to get someone like this let alone in the 2nd round.  There is a really good track record with Alabama D lineman including guys taking in the 2nd round or later. 

 

Reading about him, he's a boisterous personality, team captain.  Apparently, infectious personality.  i talked about this on the draft thread previously which is I think we needed a dude with that type of personality on the defense.  We got so many quiet guys.  And apparently Tim Settle was the boisterous one in the D line locker room.  So it feels like Mathis fills that vaccum. 

 

3. 98.  Dameon Pierce.  My backup was ironically Spiller and Robinson and said so on the draft thread well before that pick was made.  i wanted one of those three once the top 2 were gone.  And those three were all close for me.

 

Robinson:  I was jazzed about the pick  I liked Pierce slightly more but Robinson is the same flavor.  This pick gave me the 2nd biggest jolt in real time when it happened.   Biggest jolt was for Howell.

 

4. 113.  Sam Howell.  Backup for that spot: Charlie Kolar.  

 

i was pounding the table once we got to this spot for Howell.  He's my 3rd ranked QB and I put Corral only one spot ahead of him in my top 100.   Value at this spot was ridiculous.  Obviously i had no idea he'd keep dropping.  Kolar was my favorite TE left on the board at this juncture.  I spent a lot of time pushing Kolar on the draft thread for months.

 

As for Percy Butler.  I watched a lot of safeties, he's not one of them.  I don't really have an opinion on him yet.  But I'll get to watching him.  Chris Simms loves him. Chad Reuter too who does draft rankings for NFL.com.  Some don't.  I don't tend to judge players purely based on mock drafters takes so I'll keep an open mind.  We have a history of taking athletic safeties in the 4th round who don't end up more than special teams players and we've done that now under multiple regimes:  Phillip Thomas, Nicholson, Apke and now Butler. 

 

5.  144.  Sam Howell.

 

They took the player I wanted at that spot.  

 

6.  149.  Cole Turner

 

Back to back they took the players I wanted.  I started clamoring for Turner when the TEs were coming off the board.  He's the 2nd player they took who was in "my guys" list.   I mentioned as soon as they traded down to land two 5th round picks that its likely either Strong and Turner or Howell and Turner.  Felt though Howell would be gone.  I actually pm'd @RWJ when they traded down that's what I think they will do.  Said it on the draft thread too.  I communicated to @RWJ because he was very into the backup QB idea,

 

I've talked about Cole Turner plenty on this thread and some on the new Cole Turner thread.  In short, in the mid to later rounds he was an attractive F TE target for me because of his hands/catch radius that fit Wentz's wheel house. 

 

7.  230 Marquis Hayes

 

Hayes to me was a really solid high floor OG.  I never studied Chris Paul.  But i like his profile -- big dude who can run and I trust Masko. 

 

8. 240.  I was really pushing a bunch of players here not fixated on one.  If i had to pick one.  I'll pick a dude I actually pushed a little on and off for months.   Kevin Austin.

 

I know nothing about the corner they selected but I'll watch him.  I wasn't in love with Kevin Austin.  But i thought he was somewhat underrated.  Played for a big school.  Put up good numbers.  He can run, good size.  He went undrafted.   

 

 

[Skinsinparadise]

18 hours ago, Going Commando said:

Here's my list of guys that I would have picked if it had been my job to make our choices:

 

16 - Devin Lloyd, LB, Utah
47 - Malik Willis, QB, Liberty
98 - Coby Bryant, DB, Cincinnati
113 - Calvin Austin, WR, Memphis
144 - Jamaree Salyer, OL, Georgia
149 - Tyler Allgeir, RB, BYU
230 - Zakobe McClain, LB, Auburn
240 - Rasheed Walker, OL, Penn St

 

I'm making a record of this so that I can have a memory of my takes completely unbiased by hindsight.  I'd love it if everyone who participates in our draft thread would make one too.

 

Did you do this factoring each pick they did the round before?   For me for example i loved Calvin Austin, i think I even helped start the bandwagon for him, even before the combine, but after them taking Dotson, I didn't see the fit the same way anymore. 

Edited May 1, 2022 by Skinsinparadise

[Going Commando]

13 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

Did you do this factoring each pick they did the round before?   For me for example i loved Calvin Austin, i think I even helped start the bandwagon for him, even before the combine, but after them taking Dotson, I didn't see the fit the same way anymore. 

 

No I made my choices based entirely on my board and the hypothetical choices I made in each round.  So when I picked Calvin Austin at 113, in that scenario we didn't get Jahan Dotson at 16, we got Devin Lloyd.