Russian Invasion of Ukraine

[China]

Russia is spending so much money and manpower on defense that it's draining the rest of the economy

 

Russia is spending so much on its war in Ukraine that the effort is draining resources from the rest of the economy, according to Alexandra Prokopenko, a former Russian central bank official.

 

"Russian industry has been transformed, with defense sectors now overshadowing civilian industries," Prokopenko wrote in Foreign Affairs on Monday.

 

Moscow's current military spending has overshadowed social spending for the first time since the fall of the Soviet Union, wrote Prokopenko, who is a scholar at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center and a researcher at the Center of Eastern European and International Studies.

 

Russia has allocated nearly one-third of its 2024 budget to defense spending. Social spending including salaries, pensions, and benefits will make up for about one-fifth of the budget, according to Russia's federal budget.

 

"This pivot toward a militarized economy threatens social and developmental needs," wrote Prokopenko.

 

But it's not just about money. The military sector is also "siphoning off" labor from the civilian workforce, leading to an "abnormally low" unemployment rate of 2.9% — down from around 4% to 5% before the war, Prokopenko wrote in Foreign Policy.

 

Russia has been facing a labor crunch due to the war and a massive brain drain.

 

Last month, Prokopenko said Russian President Vladimir Putin is trying to solve a "trilemma" in navigating the country's economy.

"His challenges are threefold: he must fund his ongoing war against Ukraine, maintain his populace's living standards, and safeguard macroeconomic stability," she repeated in Foreign Policy on Monday.

 

"Achieving the first and second goals will require higher spending, which will fuel inflation and thus prevent the achievement of the third goal," she added.

 

Click on the link for the full article

[PokerPacker]

When you're attacking a peaceful neighbor, it's not defense.  This is offense spending.

[China]

Russia Committed Entire Ground Force of 462,000 to Ukraine Invasion: Kyiv Intelligence

 

Russia is likely committing the entire ground force – comprising 462,000 soldiers and officers – to Ukraine as it lacks the capacity to fight a ground war elsewhere, an official from the Main Intelligence Directorate of Ukraine’s Defense Ministry (HUR) has said.

 

Vadym Skibitskyi, Deputy Chief of the HUR, told Ukrainska Pravda the estimation is based on the fact that Russia now lacks the capability to conduct land offensive operations in other nations.

 

“Our forecast, our assessment is very simple – today the Russian Federation does not have the capabilities to conduct strategic land offensive operations against other countries,” he said

“Because the entire resource of the land component is now targeted and located on our territory.”

 

However, he does not rule out the possibility of Russian missiles and airstrikes in other countries, though the chance is slim.

 

Click on the link for the full article

 

 

[DCSaints_fan]

22 minutes ago, China said:

Russia Committed Entire Ground Force of 462,000 to Ukraine Invasion: Kyiv Intelligence

 

Russia is likely committing the entire ground force – comprising 462,000 soldiers and officers – to Ukraine as it lacks the capacity to fight a ground war elsewhere, an official from the Main Intelligence Directorate of Ukraine’s Defense Ministry (HUR) has said.

 

Vadym Skibitskyi, Deputy Chief of the HUR, told Ukrainska Pravda the estimation is based on the fact that Russia now lacks the capability to conduct land offensive operations in other nations.

 

“Our forecast, our assessment is very simple – today the Russian Federation does not have the capabilities to conduct strategic land offensive operations against other countries,” he said

“Because the entire resource of the land component is now targeted and located on our territory.”

 

However, he does not rule out the possibility of Russian missiles and airstrikes in other countries, though the chance is slim.

 

Click on the link for the full article

Their entire regular army probably although they do have some reserves well as the regular conscript forces they get twice a year (but train’s for those is a total joke as I understand,,, they lucky to even get to the target range)

I m wondering if a surprise offensive by Ukraine into Russian territory like around  Belgorod could achieve anything … if the army is truly stretched to its limit then theUAF could seize a lot of territory before Russia has time to react, and if they can’t expel Ukraine that is a massive embarrassment for Putin and could lead to a coup or even uprising.  
 

Of course the downside is this is one of the trigger clauses that Russia can use to resort to nuclear weapons

 

Edited January 12 by DCSaints_fan

[PokerPacker]

34 minutes ago, China said:

Russia Committed Entire Ground Force of 462,000 to Ukraine Invasion: Kyiv Intelligence

 

Russia is likely committing the entire ground force – comprising 462,000 soldiers and officers – to Ukraine as it lacks the capacity to fight a ground war elsewhere, an official from the Main Intelligence Directorate of Ukraine’s Defense Ministry (HUR) has said.

 

Vadym Skibitskyi, Deputy Chief of the HUR, told Ukrainska Pravda the estimation is based on the fact that Russia now lacks the capability to conduct land offensive operations in other nations.

 

“Our forecast, our assessment is very simple – today the Russian Federation does not have the capabilities to conduct strategic land offensive operations against other countries,” he said

“Because the entire resource of the land component is now targeted and located on our territory.”

 

However, he does not rule out the possibility of Russian missiles and airstrikes in other countries, though the chance is slim.

 

Click on the link for the full article

 

 

Sounds like a good time to invade Russia.

[PokerPacker]

wrong thread.

Edited January 12 by PokerPacker

[China]

Putin faces fresh revolt as fed-up Russians burn down 25-acre warehouse in fury at war

 

A giant warehouse near St Petersburg has gone up in smoke after Russia workers there set the entire facility ablaze.

 

The action was reportedly taken after Russian police raided the Wildberries warehouse to find people to conscript to fight the war in Ukraine.

 

According to Russian media sources the incident is currently under investigation by the state prosecutor's office.

 

According to APA's Russian bureau, there is currently no available information regarding the number of casualties or injuries caused by the fire.

 

The fire took hold of the 50 thousand square metre site and required hundreds of firefighters to bring it under control.

 

 

Click on the link for the full article

[DCSaints_fan]

On 1/11/2024 at 8:07 PM, PokerPacker said:

Sounds like a good time to invade Russia.

Not unless you want to get nuked

[PokerPacker]

4 minutes ago, DCSaints_fan said:

Not unless you want to get nuked

Eh, the world's getting a bit overpopulated.  And maybe a little nuclear winter will help with the global warming.

[TradeTheBeal!]

On 1/11/2024 at 5:07 PM, PokerPacker said:

Sounds like a good time to invade Russia.

Sounds like a better time to provoke an insurgence.

[Gurgeh]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/jan/15/ukraine-shoots-down-two-russian-aircraft-in-disastrous-day-for-kremlin

 

Ukraine’s military has shot down two of Russia’s command planes, in one of the most disastrous days for the Kremlin’s air power since the start of Vladimir Putin’s full-scale invasion.

Valerii Zaluzhnyi, Ukraine’s commander in chief, said his air force had destroyed an A-50 long-range radar detection aircraft and an Il-22 control centre plane. Both were flying above the Sea of Azov on Sunday when they were hit at 9.10pm local time.

 

The A-50, which detects air defences and coordinates targets for Russian jets, crashed instantly, killing its crew. The badly damaged Il-22 appears to have made an emergency landing at an airfield in Anapa, Russia.

 

It is unclear how Ukraine managed to target and shoot down the planes. One theory is that a Patriot anti-aircraft missile battery – supplied by the US – was used. This, however, would involve moving the system close to the frontline where it could be detected. Russian officials said they have “no information” about what exactly happened. Pro-Kremlin bloggers suggested the planes were hit by friendly fire or even shot down by a team of British SAS operatives using surface-to-air missiles.

 

... According to the UK’s Ministry of Defence, the Kremlin has only six working A-50s in service. Each plane costs $330m to build. 

[DCSaints_fan]

This is an odd one, because apparently the Patriot doesn't have the range.  Of course, the true range is probably classified and they could have modified one of the missiles ...

 

Or maybe this has something to do with the F-16s.   

[Larry]

Think if we start a rumor that they were blown up by saboteur-planted explosives, then the Russians will kill some of their ground crews?  

[PokerPacker]

It was an electrical fire.  They meant to do it.  Those jets were old and needed to be decommissioned.

[FootballZombie]

F-16s would be my guess.

[Larry]

Maybe they used stolen Boeing tech. 

[PokerPacker]

3 minutes ago, Larry said:

Maybe they used stolen Boeing tech. 

The ol' MiG-737 MAX?

[China]

Desperate Vladimir Putin plunges 22 million Russians into darkness in bitter -22C winter

 

Vladimir Putin has reportedly ordered rolling energy blackouts across Moscow as temperatures reach - 22C.

 

The blackouts are said to cover the entire Moscow metropolitan area which has a total population of around 22 million.

 

The order issued states that electricity is "not to exceed 12 hours per day" with the blackouts in place from January 14 through March 31 2024, according to Ukraine commentator Igor Sushko.

 

Sushko posted on X: "The entire Moscow metropolitan area, population 22 million, will have rolling blackouts of electricity "not to exceed 12 hours per day" from January 14 through March 31, 2024. - announced by the fascist state."

 

It comes after a heating main ruptured at the Klimovsk Specialised Ammunition Plant in Podolsk, about 30 miles south of central Moscow, on January 4.

 

As a result, tens of thousands of Russians are said to be without heat in their homes in the Moscow region due to subzero temperatures.

 

According to a map published by a Russian Telegram channel and circulated on various social media platforms, the affected areas include cities such as Khimki, Balashikha, Lobnya, Lyubertsy, Podolsk, Chekhov, Naro-Fominsk, and Podolsk.

 

Residents in Moscow, specifically Balashikha, Elektrostal, Solnechnogorsk, Dmitrov, Domodedovo, Troitsk, Taldom, Orekhovo-Zuyevo, Krasnogorsk, Pushkino, Ramenskoye, Voskresensk, Losino-Petrovsky, and Selyatino, are also experiencing power outages, according to other Russian media reports.

 

Power outages have been reported in St. Petersburg, Rostov, Volgograd, Voronezh, and Primorsky.
 

Click on the link for the full article

[Gurgeh]

Updates from the ISW assessments

 

Institute for the Study of War (understandingwar.org)

 

Some US officials are reported to be pressing Ukraine to limit itself to defensive operations in 2024, and prepare for another offensive in 2025. The Ukrainians are understandably sceptical about this advice, believing that it simply hands the initiative to the Russians (and obviously given the electoral situation it seems unlikely the Ukrainians will get what they need to succeed in 2025 when they didn't get it in 2023). The US believe the war will continue until at least until 2026 and probably go on until 2029, depending upon the level of aid Ukraine receive from the US. The ISW on the other hand believe that if US aid is cut, a collapse in the ability of Ukraine to resist becomes likely and the Russians will complete their stated goal of eliminating the country of Ukraine altogether.

 

The Ukrainians for their part are anticipating a major Russian offensive this summer, with the city of Kharkiv a prime target as the Russians seek to push the Ukrainians out from all the annexed territories. So far this winter the Russians have achieved some limited advances across the board, except where the Ukrainians have a toe hold on the far bank of the Dneipr river, a region where the Russians rebuild their units that have taken heavy losses on the main front line.

 

With US supplies on hold, the Russian artillery advantage has risen from 2:1 back to the 5:1 it was earlier in the war.

 

On the technology front, both sides are making advances. The Russians are making their cruise missiles harder to shoot down; it's notable that many more are getting through these days although that's partly due to Ukraine having to conserve their remaining Patriot stocks now they are no longer being replenished. For their part the Ukrainians are investing in more advanced drones, which local Russian commanders view as being more effective than the more mass produced Russian drones. The Ukrainians have also managed to strike targets deep into Russia.

 

Finally, given all the internet squabbling about who makes the better tanks, this clip of a fight between a Bradley and a T-90M hopefully shows that it's not always who has the bigger gun and better armor. The Bradley gunner apparently went for the T-90 optics, effectively blinding the tank which was later finished off by a drone strike.

 

 

 

 

 

[CousinsCowgirl84]

This is a real test for the west in part because such a big deal about it. If the Ukrainians can’t push Russia back to 2020 boundaries it will be pretty clear the wests rule of law age is over. We are already seeing big cracks. I was all for Bidens strategic patience in Ukraine but at some point we have to smack back the swarms of mosquitoes.

A draw isn’t good enough…

[Riggo-toni]

The origins of Russian military strategy....

 

[DCSaints_fan]

3 hours ago, Riggo-toni said:

The origins of Russian military strategy....

 

 

Like von Manstein said (paraphrasing) you can kill three Russians) for every one of your own men you lose, but the problem is the fourth and fifth Russian …

 

What they’re doing is really, really ugly.  Frontal assaults with units composed of  marginal populations, prisoners and foreign volunteers so as not to risk the power base of “Russian core”.  Blocking units.  But in the end it could be effective

 

Putin will wage the war as long as he has to in order to avoid defeat.  Sadly I just don’t foresee some uprising or coup that will displace him … his hold on power is simply too strong.

The only hope for Ukraine is if they can somehow gain air superiority.  Then a smaller force can make substantial advance against a numerically superior opponent, who is well dug in.

 

 

Edited January 20 by DCSaints_fan

[Gurgeh]

8 hours ago, CousinsCowgirl84 said:

This is a real test for the west in part because such a big deal about it. If the Ukrainians can’t push Russia back to 2020 boundaries it will be pretty clear the wests rule of law age is over. We are already seeing big cracks. I was all for Bidens strategic patience in Ukraine but at some point we have to smack back the swarms of mosquitoes.

A draw isn’t good enough…

 

I think 2023 will bee looked at as a huge missed opportunity to end this war.

 

If the Ukrainians had been given the tanks and planes they asked for, when they asked for them, at the start of the year, then the Russians wouldn't have had the time to construct thousands of miles of minefields and trenches and would have faced Western armor and airpower in a largely open battlefield.

 

But instead the US and the Germans fretted about who should give tanks, and whether the Ukrainians should get F-16s, and by the time they gave about a third of what the Ukrainians said they needed it had all became moot, because no matter how many tanks we give them now, they can't drive through double-stacked mines laid 6 feet apart for 20 miles while being bombarded by artillery and drones.

 

The only way I see Ukraine winning now is airpower, if they can knock out the Russian artillery. It's a real stretch to see that happening, but if there's one thing NATO has in abundance it's armaments for air warfare.

 

[DCSaints_fan]

3 hours ago, Gurgeh said:

 

I think 2023 will bee looked at as a huge missed opportunity to end this war.

 

If the Ukrainians had been given the tanks and planes they asked for, when they asked for them, at the start of the year, then the Russians wouldn't have had the time to construct thousands of miles of minefields and trenches and would have faced Western armor and airpower in a largely open battlefield.

 

But instead the US and the Germans fretted about who should give tanks, and whether the Ukrainians should get F-16s, and by the time they gave about a third of what the Ukrainians said they needed it had all became moot, because no matter how many tanks we give them now, they can't drive through double-stacked mines laid 6 feet apart for 20 miles while being bombarded by artillery and drones.

 

The only way I see Ukraine winning now is airpower, if they can knock out the Russian artillery. It's a real stretch to see that happening, but if there's one thing NATO has in abundance it's armaments for air warfare.

 

 

There is an outside chance, if we give them enough air assets to conduct SEAD properly, Ukranie could effectively neutralize Russian air defense as well as air force because not only would the Russian Air Force have to have to face Ukranian Air Force, but also while under the the air umbrella of the various Ukranian air defense assets, such as Patriot.

 

Then it should be of matter of simply pulverizing their ground positions from the air, they can use the shorter range, more numerous and  cheaper bombs (JDAM. about $30k/pop) vs. the expensive, long range stuff like Storm Shadow, to do that because they shouldn't have to worry about air interdiction. 

 

Punch a gap in the lines with an armored spearheads, outflank the positions and roll up the Russian lines.  Ala Desert Storm in '91.

 

But this is not so simple.  Even with the planes, and trained pilots, air forces are very complex things that take a long time build up strength.  This probably should have been started weeks after it was apparent that Ukraine was going to fight and Russian wasn't backing down, because potentially we could be talking about a legit late spring/early summer offensive for Ukraine.

 

If push came to shove, and the Ukranian lines start crumbling and its entire existence is threatened, I'm hoping the West basically goes to Putin and says, "Not an inch more, or else we unleash *our* air force on you in Ukraine" and we get at least a ceasefire.

Edited January 21 by DCSaints_fan

[China]

North Korean Missiles Face Reality Check in Putin’s Battles

 

North Korea’s new arsenal of ballistic missiles is set for their first real-world test on the battlefield in Ukraine. But based on the success of US interceptor systems in that conflict, Kim Jong Un may be worried.

 

Burning through his stockpiles as the war in Ukraine nears the two-year mark, Russian President Vladimir Putin has turned to Kim to provide short-range ballistic missiles and more than 1 million rounds of artillery. The North Korean missiles sent so far are similar in size and flight dynamics to Russia’s Iskander series, weapons experts have said.

 

A report by the Center for Strategic and International Studies showed that the US Patriot air defense system has so far been largely effective in countering Russia’s missiles. In June, when Russia tried to take out a Patriot battery protecting Kyiv, the system shot down all of the 34 Iskander and Kinzhal missiles Russia fired, CSIS said.

 

That’s a warning to Putin about the KN-23 and KN-24 missiles Kim is believed to be supplying. The systems are designed to be deployed quickly, maneuverable in flight and reliably hit targets with a degree of precision. That might not be enough.

 

“The Patriot missile defense system should be able to intercept North Korea’s short-range ballistic missiles, given its effectiveness against Russian Iskanders,” said Shaan Shaikh, a fellow in the Missile Defense Project at CSIS, a Washington-based think tank.

 

Click on the link for the full article