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2021 Playoff Tracker Thread

kleese

By kleese
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TD_washingtonredskins

TD_washingtonredskins

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1 hour ago, kleese said:

The "serious" help isn't really true... win out and either the Niners lose 2 or Saints lose 1 and we are most likely in. The only way we wouldn't be is if we wound up in a 9-8 tie with ONLY the Saints. We would win almost all other multi-team tie-breakers. 

 

That's fair. I didn't consider last night a must-win for that reason. I just don't think this team wins the final 3 in a row. They'll whip the Giants...but I don't see them winning both of the next 2 vs. Philly and Dallas. They needed one of those past two to give themselves some margin for error. 

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Franklin60

Franklin60

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2 hours ago, Cooleyfan1993 said:

That’s interesting. I was playing around with the ESPN playoff machine just to see if Philly could win the division by winning all 3, and Dallas losing all 3, and the lowest seed the eagles could get would be 6th, not 4th. So if it’s not possible for Philly to win the division, then how has Dallas not won it now? 

If they both finish 10-7, it would come down to the teams strength-of-victory since head-to-head, division, and common opponents would still be tied. The Cowboys currently have a massive lead over the Eagles (for example, they beat the Patriots while the Eagles beat the Lions...that sort of thing. There are other teams involved like the Broncos, Chargers, Vikings, and Jets, but that's the gist of it). I don't even think it's statistically possible for the teams the Eagles have beaten to make up the deficit in only three weeks. But I guess the league won't officially declare it clinched until they count the votes, so to speak.

 

Basically, the Eagles beat crappy teams like the Lions and Jets while the Cowboys beat good teams like the Chargers and Patriots. It's really a done deal.

 

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JSSkinz

JSSkinz

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5 hours ago, kleese said:

The "serious" help isn't really true... win out and either the Niners lose 2 or Saints lose 1 and we are most likely in. The only way we wouldn't be is if we wound up in a 9-8 tie with ONLY the Saints. We would win almost all other multi-team tie-breakers. 

Anything can happen but I see the Vikes losing back to back to the Rams and Packers and finishing 8-9, the Saints going 3-0 or 2-1 and finishing 9-8 or 10-7 and the Niners going 1-2 and finishing 9-8.

 

We have to run the table and then we'll have the conference tiebreaker on the Niners so its doable but its not as if the team is surging right now.

 

Lets hope you're right.

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kleese

kleese

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1 hour ago, JSSkinz said:

Anything can happen but I see the Vikes losing back to back to the Rams and Packers and finishing 8-9, the Saints going 3-0 or 2-1 and finishing 9-8 or 10-7 and the Niners going 1-2 and finishing 9-8.

 

We have to run the table and then we'll have the conference tiebreaker on the Niners so its doable but its not as if the team is surging right now.

 

Lets hope you're right.


Here’s the deal— I 100% eliminate our potential results when analyzing the scenarios. Because our results are the control in the equation. All that matters to me is what ELSE we would need. Right now, we control going 3-0, so I’m looking at what else we’d need in that scenario.  If we lose Sunday night, then I will shift to what we need if we finish 2-0. I actually don’t think there is any scenario where we are eliminated this weekend by the way. 
 

Us making the playoffs isn’t very likely at all because us going 3-0 is improbable and even 2-1 might be pushing it. I personally do not think we are going to make the playoffs— although I do kind of think we are going to beat the Eagles. 
 

My only point is that IF we do our part, we really don’t need all that much else to fall our way— as a matter of fact, it would probably be pretty bad luck if we went 3-0 and missed out. 

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Franklin60

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Okay, I've been playing around with the scenarios where the Eagles would win the tiebreak against the Cowboys at 10-7, which can only happen if the Eagles win their final three games and the Cowboys lose their final three. I had said earlier that this is impossible, but technically it isn't. But it is so implausible as to be completely ignored as a possibility. 

 

As I said, it comes down to strength of victory, and it involves these eight teams. Chargers, Patriots, Vikings, Giants, Broncos, WFT, Lions, and Jets. What would need to happen is that the Chargers, Patriots, Vikings, and Giants [teams the Cowboys beat] would need to lose out, while the Broncos, WFT (with the exception of their game against the Eagles of course), Lions, and Jets [teams the Eagles beat] would need to win out. I believe there could be one of these games that could go "wrong" and the Eagles would win the tiebreak, but basically about 23 out of 24 games would have to go right, and they include absurdities like the Lions winning out when one of the games is against the Packers, the Jets winning out which includes games against the Bucs and Bills, and the Chargers losing to the Texans.

 

So I think it's beyond 99% that Dallas wins the division, and is more like 99.99%.

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kleese

kleese

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7 minutes ago, Cooleyfan1993 said:

Saints are starting Ian Book on Monday night, with taysom hill and Trevor semian going on the Covid list. So if we win on Sunday, the dolphins beating the saints could definitely help us out. 

 Or if we lose on Sunday. No one is gonna want to hear this, but if we lose and other things go our way, we could still find ourselves VERY much alive with two games remaining. 

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Renegade7

Renegade7

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On 12/22/2021 at 2:10 PM, Rdskns2000 said:

If you need help get in playoffs; more often than not you don’t get the help.

 

 

 

Straight facts.  We need to accept that even if we win out from here we still might not get in, too many teams around where we are or higher.

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kleese

kleese

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Rooting guide for this week: 

 

The Obvious: 

 

49ers at Titans: 100% will assume Niners beat Houston next week in SF; so they only factor for us in scenarios where we finish 3-0. But while that’s still a possibility, we are definitely anti-Niners. 
 

Dolphins at Saints: This is the biggest one of the week and matters to us in either the 3-0 finish scenario or the 2-1 finish scenario. Saints Covid news today is a pretty big deal. Obviously rooting Miami here. 
 

Giants at Eagles: This really isn’t THAT huge for us in the 3-0 scenario— we’d control our destiny with Philly there. But in the 2-1 finish scenarios we need to beat Philly and they need to either lose to NYG or Dallas. No negative here to Philly losing for us. 
 

The Less Obvious:

 

Rams at Vikings: So Minnesota is weird as they relate to us. What we REALLY need is for the Vikings to finish with the same amount of wins as we do— which means they need to win exactly one FEWER game than we do the rest of the way. Having them involved in tie-breakers would really help us. If we go 3-0, we WANT them to go 2-1. If we go 2-1, we WANT them to go 1-2. So just sort of depends on your perspective in terms of what you want from them this week. I guess for now I’d lean root against them. Not quite as black and white as you might think though. 
 

Lions at Falcons: Much like Vikings, having the Falcons finish with same record as we do would be advantageous. They play at Buffalo next week which seems like a major long shot for them, so I’d say root FOR them this week. 
 

Bucs at Panthers/Bears at Seahawks: Panthers and Seahawks can only help us now. Best they can do is win out and finish 8-9. If we wind up in an 8-9 tie-breaker having those teams involved would be good. Root fo mr both of them, albeit pretty long shot that it would matter. 
 

The Now You’re Stretching: 

 

Browns at Packers: Currently it would behoove us for all the top NFC teams (Pack, Cards, Boys, Rams) to have something to play for through week 18. Green Bay losing here really keeps the door open for all of them in terms of the top seed, home field, etc. Root for a GB loss and for the top of the NFC playoff picture to remain muddled. 

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kleese

kleese

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49ers loss GREATLY increases the chances we will make playoffs IF we go 3-0. The Niners never really factored into our 8-9 possibilities because they would need to lose to Houston next week. But in our 9-8 possibilities, the Saints could even win out now and we’d be in as long as Niners lost to Rams. 

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kleese

kleese

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6 hours ago, Peregrine said:

I mean, simply we have to win out and I dont see that happening.  Unfortunately this is the result of having a bad luck/bad scheduling stretch, and why you cant suck for half of the season and then get into the playoffs except in rare cases.


Again, this is not true. As a matter of fact it is impossible for us to be eliminated this weekend. 

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ColonialWBSkinsFan

ColonialWBSkinsFan

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6 hours ago, Rdskns2000 said:

We will be eliminated the following week. I think Philly sweeps us.

Then why watch, or even comment on this thread?  It’s clear that this thread is here to help determine what has to happen for the WFT to make the playoffs.  If you don’t think there’s any way of that happening, then there are you plenty of other threads where you can complain about how awful this franchise is.  But not this one… 

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Cooleyfan1993

Cooleyfan1993

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5 minutes ago, ColonialWBSkinsFan said:

Then why watch, or even comment on this thread?  It’s clear that this thread is here to help determine what has to happen for the WFT to make the playoffs.  If you don’t think there’s any way of that happening, then there are you plenty of other threads where you can complain about how awful this franchise is.  But not this one… 

I was going to be the one to say this, but i didnt feel like hearing the backlash 😂 i will pray for you 

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Peregrine

Peregrine

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On 12/24/2021 at 8:38 AM, kleese said:


Again, this is not true. As a matter of fact it is impossible for us to be eliminated this weekend. 

Whats true is not true?  Strange take.  Its absolutely true we have to win out to go to the playoffs, the fact we cant be eliminated with 2 weeks left is meaningless.  The fact that Eagles, Saints, and Vikings would all have to go 1-2 is the reason why.

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