The Official QB Thread- JD5 taken #2. Randal 2.0 or Bayou Bob? Mariotta and Fromm battle for QB2 and so begins the Handsome Harem for Hartman

[RWJ]

@Skinsinparadise Is Fresno State QB Jake Haener participating, SIP.  If so, how has he looked? Disregard, I see that you posted he had and looked good.  He is my favorite QB in the entire draft. 

Edited February 1, 2023 by RWJ

[Skinsinparadise]

4 minutes ago, RWJ said:

@Skinsinparadise Is Fresno State QB Jake Haener participating, SIP.  If so, how has he looked? 

 

He's there, one dude I just posted about it said he looked good.  But nothing was televised today.  tomorrow it will be and I'll try to watch.

Edited February 1, 2023 by Skinsinparadise

[RWJ]

Just now, Skinsinparadise said:

 

He's there, one dude I just posted about said he looked good.  But nothing was televised today.  tomorrow it will be and I'll try to watch.

Yes, I just fixed my post.  LOL

[RWJ]

Haener is going to move up draft boards if he has a good Senior Bowl performance and Combine.  I expect he'd be drafted on day 2 if he does. 

[Skinsinparadise]

15 minutes ago, RWJ said:

Yes, I just fixed my post.  LOL

 

 

9 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

 

As for the next tier my guy would be hands down Haener.

 

And I haven't really watched the next group much.

 

But from what I've watched, if I had to go deeper in the draft QB wise, guessing 6th roundish.  Clayton Tune.  Good size.  Put up big numbers.  I talked about him this past weekend on the draft thread, he got my attention when watching a WR and was impressed how Tune basically got beaten to a pulp by the pass rush in that game but keep on swinging.  At a minimum he's tough.  And has decent and underrated wheels IMO.  

 

Some like Duggan and Hall.  Who will also be at the Senior Bowl.   I got to watch those two.

 

I am not married to PFF numbers but there are some categories that I dig more than others and one of those is QB's performance under pressure and Tune has a much better rating on that front than Duggan and Hall.  But I haven't really studied either Hall or Duggan.  But did watch Duggan during the season.

 

The Senior Bowl is often a good gauge to seperate the more marginal QB prospects for better or worse. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited February 1, 2023 by Skinsinparadise

[Jericho]

9 hours ago, KDawg said:

I haven’t seen it a ton here, but I’m general, I hope people stop using the Pro Bowl as any sort of measuring stick for any position…

 

Huntley made the Pro Bowl…

 

Kind of an aside but…

 

Wait, how is that even possible? I get Mahomes, Allen, and Burrow all bowed out. But there seems to be about 10 more guys head of Huntley. How did Herbert not make it? I like this tidbit, Huntley had thrown for a total of just 275 yards with zero touchdowns when voting for the Pro Bowl Games closed on Dec. 1

[FootballZombie]

14 minutes ago, Jericho said:

Wait, how is that even possible? I get Mahomes, Allen, and Burrow all bowed out. But there seems to be about 10 more guys head of Huntley. How did Herbert not make it? I like this tidbit, Huntley had thrown for a total of just 275 yards with zero touchdowns when voting for the Pro Bowl Games closed on Dec. 1

 

That is a wild stat lol

 

Huntley has no business near the pro bowl, but everyone above him is out.

 

Originally you had

 

-Mahomie

-Allen

-Burrow

 

Allen is hurt and Burrow opted out of the exhibition. Mahomes is in the SB.

 

The leading alternates are

 

-Tua

-Herbert

-Jackson

 

All 3 are injured and can't go.

 

So now we got deep alternates of

 

-Huntley

-Carr

-Trev

 

[mistertim]

I definitely do like Haener as a possible late round pick, but his arm strength worries me a bit. I doubt I've watched as much of him as others here like @Skinsinparadisebut from what I've seen, he's awesome at extending plays, really accurate short and intermediate, but struggles deep and those balls are often underthrown. Is that accurate or am I misremembering (or haven't seen enough tape)?

[RWJ]

2 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

 

That's my boy! 

[Sacks 'n' Stuff]

Great name. I once coached a kid name Lukapuka Lukapuka Pukapukaluka.

 

edit: That’s what I called him anyway. His real name was Luke. We had two Lukes which was too confusing.

Edited February 1, 2023 by Sacks 'n' Stuff

[wit33]

3 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

 

 

The worst value in sports, is the entitled middling QB demanding borderline elite money. 
 

No one is giving Daniel Jones $40mil in the open market. The new norm will be to let these guys go, yes, without compensation. Dare him to go elsewhere and risk ruining his career outlook. 
 

Remain lean financially and continue hunting Washington. 
 

The jig is almost up for these guys, the NFL owners are just about done paying these dudes. Old romantic coaches and FOs will continue to fill the air waves stating the need to have these guys, but most often they’re unemployed, hmmm. 
 

Edited February 1, 2023 by wit33

[mistertim]

5 minutes ago, wit33 said:

The worst value in sports, is the entitled middling QB demanding borderline elite money. 
 

No one is giving Daniel Jones $40mil in the open market. The new norm will be to let these guys go, yes, without compensation. Dare him to go elsewhere and risk ruining his career outlook. 
 

Remain lean financially and continue hunting Washington. 
 

The jig is almost up for these guys, the NFL owners are just about done paying these dudes. Old romantic coaches and FOs will continue to fill the air waves stating the need to have these guys, but most often they’re unemployed, hmmm. 
 

 

I don't 100% disagree that this is possible, but we've also heard this every year now for a while. "Oh, the crazy QB salaries are going to have to come back to reality this year", but it never happens.

[wit33]

1 hour ago, mistertim said:

 

I don't 100% disagree that this is possible, but we've also heard this every year now for a while. "Oh, the crazy QB salaries are going to have to come back to reality this year", but it never happens.

It’s gained a great deal of traction and more QBs are being made available via trade and free agency than in years past. Owners finally appear open to alternate pathways to winning versus the mediocre coach doing everything possible to remain employed by following a QB model that fails 90% of the time. 
 

Happy Wentz should scar the franchise enough for next few years to stay away “mean level of QB: 15% are bums, 70% are average and 15% are elite (standard deviation). 
 

Let’s hope Howell can hit the 70% threshold while on a rookie deal. 

[mistertim]

5 minutes ago, wit33 said:

It’s gained a great deal of traction and more QBs are being made available via trade and free agency than in years past. Owners finally appear open to alternate pathways to winning versus the mediocre coach doing everything possible to remain employed by following a QB model that fails 90% of the time. 
 

Happy Wentz should scar the franchise enough for next few years to stay away “mean level of QB: 15% are bums, 70% are average and 15% are elite (standard deviation). 
 

Let’s hope Howell can hit the 70% threshold while on a rookie deal. 

 

Why? If he's in the 70% he's not going to win a SB anyway. The only time middling QBs win Super Bowls is if they suddenly go on tears in the offseason and play at an elite level there (Flacco, Foles, Eli).

 

Also, let's say something wild happens and we win a SB with Howell in 2024 (and assuming he was a big part of why we won it). What happens then? Do we just let him walk once his rookie contract is up? You'd be fine with a one and done SB?

 

Your absolute obsession over rookie QB contracts is a bit baffling, because even if you DO hit on a guy being elite, you still have to pay him to stay eventually.

[wit33]

28 minutes ago, mistertim said:

 

Why? If he's in the 70% he's not going to win a SB anyway. The only time middling QBs win Super Bowls is if they suddenly go on tears in the offseason and play at an elite level there (Flacco, Foles, Eli).

 

Tom Brady, Russel Wilson, Rothlisberger all won SBs when part of the 70% class. If you want to go further back, there’s an abundance of names available who were apart of the 70% class (Simms, Hostetler, Williams, Namath, Stabler and others). 
 

Brady winning 7 SBs has skewed data the last 20 years, that’s an anomaly (maybe Mahomes has something to say in 15 years ?). It required the GOAT to take less money throughout his career minimizing the advantage of teams with cheaper QBs. His/Patriot model was to stick around 10% of the cap and it worked out, doubt others do this. 
 

28 minutes ago, mistertim said:

 

Also, let's say something wild happens and we win a SB with Howell in 2024 (and assuming he was a big part of why we won it). What happens then? Do we just let him walk once his rookie contract is up? You'd be fine with a one and done SB?

 

Yes, teams must treat the QB more like the rest of the roster and force them to work with the franchise to continue winning or leave. This rule applies to the 70%, not the elite. The 70% should be grateful not entitled to be the franchise QB. 

 

28 minutes ago, mistertim said:

 

Your absolute obsession over rookie QB contracts is a bit baffling, because even if you DO hit on a guy being elite, you still have to pay him to stay eventually.

 

The obsession is drenched in truth. The rookie QB contract performing within the 70% or beyond is the holy grail situation. 
 

Rookie contract, the grateful veteran unjustly blamed for mediocre coach, and the dream of paying an elite QB is about it for me. 
 

What many miss about the rookie contract or the value veteran is it provides continued flexibility within the organization to explore other options. The middling overpaid QB has become entitled and requires consistent coddling—most importantly it prevents organizations from being aggressive in pursuit of a better QB situation. 

My options for this upcoming season:

 

Ryan Tannenhill at $15mil (fantastic value at this number)

 

Start Howell

 

Draft a rookie QB in round 1 or 2

 

All these options whether one agrees or not leaves door open to be aggressive or pivot as needed. 

 

Edited February 1, 2023 by wit33

[Skinsinparadise]

7 hours ago, wit33 said:

The worst value in sports, is the entitled middling QB demanding borderline elite money. 
 

No one is giving Daniel Jones $40mil in the open market. The new norm will be to let these guys go, yes, without compensation. Dare him to go elsewhere and risk ruining his career outlook. 
 

Remain lean financially and continue hunting Washington. 
 

The jig is almost up for these guys, the NFL owners are just about done paying these dudes. Old romantic coaches and FOs will continue to fill the air waves stating the need to have these guys, but most often they’re unemployed, hmmm. 
 

 

You say year after year the same thing, and these players keep getting paid and the old salary is trumped big time with the new one.  So if it changes it will be new.  Daniel Jones might not get 40 but I think he gets like 32.

 

As far as Qb salaries go.  The Jimmy G's and Kirk's and Carrs and Jared Goff's keep getting paid. 

 

It's the lower tier dudes the Case Keenum's, Bridgwater, who are getting peanuts.  

 

I'll say every year the inflation is insane.  There has been no end in sight it seems with the QB salaries.  Heck years ago some saw 24 million for a Qb as insane, now that's a bargain.  And 40 million to 50 million is the new norm for the better QBs.  While I don't see this retracting.  At some point it has to stop, its one thing for there is be an inflation component to this but  it can't be like 25% hike every year to no end.  At some point there has to be some ceiling and inflation becomes more normal than crazy. 

Edited February 1, 2023 by Skinsinparadise

[Skinsinparadise]

8 hours ago, mistertim said:

I definitely do like Haener as a possible late round pick, but his arm strength worries me a bit. I doubt I've watched as much of him as others here like @Skinsinparadisebut from what I've seen, he's awesome at extending plays, really accurate short and intermediate, but struggles deep and those balls are often underthrown. Is that accurate or am I misremembering (or haven't seen enough tape)?

 

His arm strength -- sort of Dalton's not as weak as Heinicke and size is why he's in that 2nd tier QB group eitherwise he's a first rounder.

 

I am not touting Haener because I see him as the best QB in this class because I don't.  It's just every now and then, I'd throw the dice on some dude later in the draft when I think they can play and worse case is they end up a good backup.  IMO Haener worse case, and its possible, is he ends up like Colt McCoy. 

 

I notice some are comparing him to Purdy.  That's not a crazy analogy, Purdy doesn't have a rifle.

 

 

 

 

Edited February 1, 2023 by Skinsinparadise

[KDawg]

Beyond happy that Brady made a decision on retirement. Don’t have to listen to/entertain him coming here now. Of course, he can still change his mind.

[ntotoro]

9 minutes ago, KDawg said:

Beyond happy that Brady made a decision on retirement. Don’t have to listen to/entertain him coming here now. Of course, he can still change his mind.

 

Please don't put that out in the universe... 

[zCommander]

54 minutes ago, KDawg said:

Beyond happy that Brady made a decision on retirement. Don’t have to listen to/entertain him coming here now. Of course, he can still change his mind.

 

Fox is giving him lots of money to stay retired. Sure he can change his mind like last year but I think this time, after watching his video on twitter, he is not coming back. 

 

Brady can immediately begin working as an analyst for Fox Sports, which signed him to a 10-year, $375 million contract this past summer.

[CobraCommander]

3 minutes ago, zCommander said:

 

Fox is giving him lots of money to stay retired. Sure he can change his mind like last year but I think this time, after watching his video on twitter, he is not coming back. 

 

Brady can immediately begin working as an analyst for Fox Sports, which signed him to a 10-year, $375 million contract this past summer.

So he can be on set for the Superb Owl?

[Skinsinparadise]

It would have been awful to see that bum Brady here.    

 

Now back to our usual programming....

 

What veteran?  Mariota or Dalton or Heinicke? or someone else.  

 

Edited February 1, 2023 by Skinsinparadise

[wit33]

40 minutes ago, zCommander said:

 

Fox is giving him lots of money to stay retired. Sure he can change his mind like last year but I think this time, after watching his video on twitter, he is not coming back. 

 

Brady can immediately begin working as an analyst for Fox Sports, which signed him to a 10-year, $375 million contract this past summer.

My guess is this deal is what caused friction in the marriage moreso than playing another season. Who cares though lol Lets go Howell. 

[KDawg]

16 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

It would have been awful to see that bum Brady here.    

 

Now back to our usual programming....

 

What veteran?  Mariota or Dalton or Heinicke? or someone else.  

 

 

It would have been pretty bad to see a 46 year old (47?) quarterback come in here that has been declining year to year and watch him struggle in this organization. Yes. 

[wit33]

3 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

You say year after year the same thing, and these players keep getting paid and the old salary is trumped big time with the new one.  So if it changes it will be new.  Daniel Jones might not get 40 but I think he gets like 32.

 

As far as Qb salaries go.  The Jimmy G's and Kirk's and Carrs and Jared Goff's keep getting paid. 

 

It's the lower tier dudes the Case Keenum's, Bridgwater, who are getting peanuts.  

 

I'll say every year the inflation is insane.  There has been no end in sight it seems with the QB salaries.  Heck years ago some saw 24 million for a Qb as insane, now that's a bargain.  And 40 million to 50 million is the new norm for the better QBs.  While I don't see this retracting.  At some point it has to stop, its one thing for there is be an inflation component to this but  it can't be like 25% hike every year to no end.  At some point there has to be some ceiling and inflation becomes more normal than crazy. 

There’s truth to what you state, but the narrative and actions around this level of QB have shifted over last 5 years. I’ve never argued this is what the NFL is doing years ago, more-so, changes in how these guys are handled are coming. Teams are beginning jettison these guys at a higher rate.
 

They’re bad business and owners are learning the fans don’t care about these dudes as much as they think. It doesn’t impact the bottom line as much as we were told for many years, IMO.
 

If you win, they will come, if not, we will play fantasy football and gamble until you do. The fan isn’t going anywhere in terms of following the NFL. The bottom line for the entire league will continue to go up, even with dormant franchises without a middling QB ranking 54th in jersey sales for whatever team.