The Official QB Thread- JD5 taken #2. Randal 2.0 or Bayou Bob? Mariota and Fromm battle for QB2 and so begins the Handsome Harem for Hartman

[Ball Security]

3 minutes ago, KDawg said:

 

I'm confused. What's the point here? That our defense played okay and Wentz and the OL and our gameplan wet the bed? Agreed.

 

I have no qualms about who and what Wentz was and did for us when he played. Correlation to me thinking Heinicke isn't the answer does not equate to me believing Wentz is the answer.

Did you not say that the difference in defense is a contributing factor in the TOP discrepancy between the first six games and last six games?

 

I’m showing one example of where the defense was getting off the field very quickly (something the defense had trouble with in 2021) yet the offense couldn’t sustain drives.

[Zim489]

47 minutes ago, FLSkinz83 said:

 If he intercepted that pass, no big deal, IMO.

Possibly 50 yards of Field advantage is huge. Especially for this team. Its not like a 40 yard arm punt on 3rd down.

[KDawg]

5 minutes ago, Ball Security said:

Did you not say that the difference in defense is a contributing factor in the TOP discrepancy between the first six games and last six games?

 

I’m showing one example of where the defense was getting off the field very quickly (something the defense had trouble with in 2021) yet the offense couldn’t sustain drives.

 

Do you not agree that the defense played fairly poorly the first six games? One game doesn't change that when the defense has been semi dominant the last 6. 

[Skinsfan1311]

12 minutes ago, Califan007 The Constipated said:

 

This might be approaching the line that Jumbo warned us about in the pinned thread...

Crud.  You're right.   I'll have to amend that.  Thanks!

[CommanderCarson]

3 hours ago, BatteredFanSyndrome said:

Cool post, bro.  You’re not ignoring the numerous posts I referred to yet your entire next paragraph again ignores all that stuff.  You again go rambling about sacks without factoring the interior OL of the last six weeks or the fact that running it 40 times a game has major impacts on the amount of sacks one can take.  One from shear opportunities, the other changing how the opposing defense attacks.

The interior offensive line was not great when Wentz was in and Martin was rough. I’m not ignoring it, but it’s not the only reason Wentz took more sacks and negative plays, part of that is his nature to want to make a big play and hang onto the ball longer. Martin at center is not the only reason Wentz takes a sack nearly twice the rate that Heineke does. Wentz took a sack about 9 percent of every drop back this year so roughly one out of every eleven drop backs. Heineke takes one 5% of the time he drops back, which is one every twenty drop backs. That’s a HUGE difference. And if you think it’s all because Nick Martin was our center then agree to disagree. The line was frustrating early on and definitely gave up some gimmes, I remember thinking Wentz didn’t have a chance on those. But I also remember Wentz taking some real bad ones, and that was one of the knocks on him when he got here. I’ve already addressed why running it 40 times a game with a Wentz type QB who does take more negative plays wouldn’t even really be possible so I think it’s really you who doesn’t understand how all that works. 

3 hours ago, BatteredFanSyndrome said:

 

Beyond that, nowhere have I called for Carson to start or made any bold proclamations that if he does, the results will be great.  It’s entirely possible he’s cooked and no gameplan or strategy can save him.  My only point is that I understand why folks are intrigued with seeing him again.  That apparently triggers you.

 

I’m certain you hated Jumbo’s post because it’s basically a scathing critique of you, without calling you out by name.  But the shoe fits…

 

It was only a few days ago when I called you out for this wack behavior of yours where you like to play a shrink on this forum, and here we go again.

 

There is nothing special about my projection to hang my hat on. It is inevitable that if Heinicke heads back to the bench that you will whine and mope and what if all offseason, call for Riveras head, etc.

 

I still don’t think Heinicke is a viable starter and there is a variety of information that supports that.  Such as the fact that when this season is over, this team will look to find a viable starter as opposed to attempt to run this strategy back another time and no other team will give him the opportunity to start.  Put that in your projection pipe and smoke it.

 

The only projection that matters is that NeverSurrender dude is going to be jonesing to thumbs down this post.  😭

Me telling you to not create future hypotheticals you can hang your hat on and to take a loss is me playing shrink….okay? That’s a weird interpretation lol. 
 

And I didn’t at all hate Jumbo’s post because I’m not a hiver. I liked the Wentz trade. I argued to my friends all off season that it was worth the risk and was happy we had someone who could really open up the offense. I was excited about the trio of receivers to start the year and the Jacksonville game where he threw some pretty incredible touchdown passes, four of them to be exact. I was hyped on Wentz at first. But then he sucked. Like really bad. Like we couldn’t score in the first half bad. Our defense was doing everything they could to keep games in reach heading into the second half and actually did a pretty damn good job of it. But you could tell they were tired..because they spent the entire first half on the field. Football is incredibly synergistic. If you take more sacks, you can’t run as much and likely have longer to go on third downs. If you have longer to go on third downs you likely don’t sustain drives as much. If you don’t sustain drives as much, then your defense is on the field more. When your defense is on the field more, they aren’t as effective because they are wearing down more. When you get worn down, you start giving up more points and big plays. Everything works together in harmony, and for this current team what Heineke does well works better than what Wentz brings to the table IMO. And if that makes me a hiver so be it! 

 

Wentz had a stretch with Indy last year where he played really well (like weeks 5-16) or something like that where he handed the ball off a lot to Jonathan Taylor. But as much as I love Brian Robinson, he hasn’t been running for 180 yard games consistently and just putting the team on his back. But who knows, maybe im wrong and Wentz could play really well under these circumstances. I have my doubts it would all work the same.

 

Let me know when you’d like to make another shrink appointment and I can squeeze you in my tight schedule. 

[Califan007 The Constipated]

4 minutes ago, Skinsfan1311 said:

Crud.  You're right.   I'll have to amend that.  Thanks!

 

I edited mine as well lol...

[skinny21]

As I’ve said before, I’m curious if Wentz might offer more in this iteration of Turner’s offense.  I’m not at all convinced that he’s a fit (mentally) though.  The things I would consider his biggest weaknesses - lack of mobility, holding the ball too long, and propensity for not taking the “easy” plays - are essentially polar opposite from what’s working right now.  Of course, I’ve also said it’s possible he improves in these areas (well, other than the mobility aspect) after watching things unfold from the sidelines.

 

The sample size and other factors are too small to read too much into it, but we had one game (vs Chicago) with Wentz in which we went run heavy and the defense played quite well (and/or Chicago’s offense played terribly).  Run game was successful of course, but Wentz was pretty atrocious all things considered.  He didn’t face much pressure, but all 3 sacks came on 3rd down.  The (6 yard) TD drive came after a ST turnover.  His completion percentage was terrible and he didn’t fare well on 3rd downs (only two were more than 3rd and 6).

 

Anyway, that small sample, combined with his weaknesses, don’t give me much faith in his ability to operate this (style of) offense.  The potential of hitting bigger plays though on 1st/2nd downs via PA passes is certainly appealing, as is his ability to stretch the field - perhaps leading to lighter boxes.  So I’m intrigued, but have major reservations.  We’ll see what this game brings for Heinicke (and the offense)… if they struggle, I’m assuming we’ll get a chance to see if Wentz can do better.  Of course, then we have to face SF and DAL (and CLE obviously), and whoever the qb is, I don’t think I’ll hold much against them if they don’t perform in those matchups - both are bad matchups for us IMO.  Will be interesting if we see both guys get a chance vs the Giants - giving us more of an apples to apples comparison.  This doesn’t matter much for next year, but it could be an interesting factor if we make the playoffs.

[Ball Security]

24 minutes ago, KDawg said:

 

Do you not agree that the defense played fairly poorly the first six games? One game doesn't change that when the defense has been semi dominant the last 6. 

I don’t think they played poorly in the Detroit game despite the big plays they gave up. I don’t think they played poorly in the Bears game. Do you?  I don’t think they played all that terrible in the first Philly game though I do concede that if Washington’s offense showed any life, Philly would not have been shut out in the second half. It’s pretty tough on the defense when they hold the Eagles to one FG on their first three possessions.  Then fumble the ball in their own territory leading to a 10-0 score.  Getting a fourth down stop deep in their own territory only to punt it away 1:12 minutes later. Give up a score then come back on the field less than a minute later.  

They weren’t playing complimentary football in the first half of the season.
 

I don’t think they were all that terrible in the Jax game when they held them to 3 points in the first half and then Jax’s final 10 points in the fourth quarter were off turnovers. I know that Jax shot themselves in the foot some with some drops, but we could say the same thing about offenses in the last six games too.

 

I guess you could say they played poorly against Dallas (25 points) and Tennessee (21 points) but they didn’t let those games get away from them.  
 

 

[FootballZombie]

Lemmie see...

 

Limited role. Limits the playbook. Not accurate. Low completion %. Poor 3rd down numbers. Astronomical turnover worthy play rate. Not a rushing threat. Noodle arm. Bad production. Dragged along for the ride by his team.

 

I don't need to wonder out loud about having a different QB in there. The second he costs you a game replace him with a QB that provides something. There is virtually no way someone else could be worse in our run-to-oblivion O. The only way it hurts is if Turner re-discovers his love of the forward pass when he is given the oppo to play any other QB.

 

Whats another QB gonna do in this O that will hurt us?

-Basically lead the NFL in turnover worthy play rate? Already got it

-Not be a rushing threat? Check

-Complete 60% of passes to help keep the O on schedule?

-Not be physically able to turn around and hand a ball off 40 times?

 

I aint wondering, I'm saying: Wentz or Howell could provide better than that.

 

[FLSkinz83]

51 minutes ago, Zim489 said:

Possibly 50 yards of Field advantage is huge. Especially for this team. Its not like a 40 yard arm punt on 3rd down.

 

The ball would have been intercepted at the 30, I believe.  so it would have cost us 10-20 yards.   

[Dan T.]

1 hour ago, Califan007 The Constipated said:

 

In other words, I gotta go look it up lol...dammit!

 

I think I'll just stick with what you said because it makes complete sense (especially about Wentz missing the "gimme" throws) and is much less time consuming. 

1 hour ago, BatteredFanSyndrome said:

I’m not sure where you can find that by QB.  3rd down conversion rates can be found, but I can’t find it where it separates how the third down was converted.

 

However, I don’t recall much of a narrative around Wentz taking meaningless checkdowns on third down.  In fact, a valid criticism is he tends to miss the gimmes.

 

This has been my biggest beef with Wentz - zipping short and intermediate throws over open receivers.  It's like he has difficulty modulating his arm strength.  In comparing Heinicke to Wentz, other than an obvious advantage in mobility, a soft touch on short and intermediate throws is Taylor's advantage over Carson.  And when you have a 3rd and 5, the difference between laying a fluffer into the waiting arms of a receiver vs. gunning it 4 feet over his head is the difference between the offense being on the field or seeing Tress Way do his thing yet again.

 

Maybe better protection gives Wentz the comfort level to settle in and make those softer throws.  The zips seem to come when he's - not panicking exactly, but flustered by pressure. 

[BatteredFanSyndrome]

22 minutes ago, FootballZombie said:

 

I aint wondering, I'm saying: Wentz or Howell could provide better than that.

I dunno man, Wentz is likely to get sacked between the snap and the handoff. 😭

 

What I wonder is if all these marginal wins were marginal losses instead, would these same folks still be so defensive of Heinicke?

 

I think for the majority, that answer is yes.  It would be Scott Turners fault, and last week if Payne doesn’t get his mit up to deflect that ball, it would be the defenses fault.

[Dan T.]

1 hour ago, KDawg said:

 

Do you not agree that the defense played fairly poorly the first six games? One game doesn't change that when the defense has been semi dominant the last 6. 

 

You can't ignore that a defense might be better able to play well when they can sit on the bench for 20 minutes at a time while the offense grinds out drives and eats the clock.

[KDawg]

Just now, Dan T. said:

 

You can't ignore that a defense might be better able to play well when they can sit on the bench for 20 minutes at a time while the offense grinds out drives and eats the clock.

 

I haven't ignored that.

 

I'm looking at literally everything and not chalking things up directly to Heinicke as the savior.

 

I think Robinson and Gibson have more to do with the defense getting time to sit on the bench than Heinicke. Heinicke's limitations forced Turner into calling that kind of plan, a healthy Robinson let Gibson put less wear on the tires and used more dynamically, and injured OL returned to make our OL go from putrid to meh. 

 

That's my argument. Nothing beyond that.

 

I feel like I'm playing ping pong. 

[FootballZombie]

1 minute ago, BatteredFanSyndrome said:

I dunno man, Wentz is likely to get sacked between the snap and the handoff. 😭

 

I can very much see the argument that we lose the ref advantage and the zebras will start actively tripping our QBs in the backfield.

[skinny21]

Anyone have a theory as to why, when our oline appears to be better, we’re running the ball better, and Heinicke appears to be often throwing to his first read, the pressure percentage is higher?  Diving a bit deeper, both qbs had a game with a high of 40% (so it’s not one game lifting the totals).  Wentz’s lowest pressure percentage against was against Chicago, but Heinicke faced an even lower percentage vs Atlanta (so it’s also not one game lowering the total).   

 

And for the oline, for a time there we had Nick Martin, Charles (and/or an unhealthy Trae Turner), and Cosmi (worse in pass pro than Lucas) vs what we have today... you’d think this group would be quite a bit better.  And you’d think dlines are a bit more worried about containment with Heinicke under center vs Wentz (who I’d think most dlines would be teeing off on).  Overall, the percentage isn’t that big a difference between the two, so maybe it doesn’t matter, but it just seems like it should be significantly better given all factors.

[CommanderCarson]

26 minutes ago, skinny21 said:

As I’ve said before, I’m curious if Wentz might offer more in this iteration of Turner’s offense.  I’m not at all convinced that he’s a fit (mentally) though.  The things I would consider his biggest weaknesses - lack of mobility, holding the ball too long, and propensity for not taking the “easy” plays - are essentially polar opposite from what’s working right now.  Of course, I’ve also said it’s possible he improves in these areas (well, other than the mobility aspect) after watching things unfold from the sidelines.

 

The sample size and other factors are too small to read too much into it, but we had one game (vs Chicago) with Wentz in which we went run heavy and the defense played quite well (and/or Chicago’s offense played terribly).  Run game was successful of course, but Wentz was pretty atrocious all things considered.  He didn’t face much pressure, but all 3 sacks came on 3rd down.  The (6 yard) TD drive came after a ST turnover.  His completion percentage was terrible and he didn’t fare well on 3rd downs (only two were more than 3rd and 6).

 

Anyway, that small sample, combined with his weaknesses, don’t give me much faith in his ability to operate this (style of) offense.  The potential of hitting bigger plays though on 1st/2nd downs via PA passes is certainly appealing, as is his ability to stretch the field - perhaps leading to lighter boxes.  So I’m intrigued, but have major reservations.  We’ll see what this game brings for Heinicke (and the offense)… if they struggle, I’m assuming we’ll get a chance to see if Wentz can do better.  Of course, then we have to face SF and DAL (and CLE obviously), and whoever the qb is, I don’t think I’ll hold much against them if they don’t perform in those matchups - both are bad matchups for us IMO.  Will be interesting if we see both guys get a chance vs the Giants - giving us more of an apples to apples comparison.  This doesn’t matter much for next year, but it could be an interesting factor if we make the playoffs.

Fantastic post. Wentz threw for 100 yards less than Taylor’s average this year in the only gameplan Wentz had that was similar to what Taylor runs, and the same amount of sacks that Taylor has taken in the last 6 games. I don’t believe Nick Martin was his center that game either for what it’s worth. 

[BatteredFanSyndrome]

Just now, Dan T. said:

 

You can't ignore that a defense might be better able to play well when they can sit on the bench for 20 minutes at a time while the offense grinds out drives and eats the clock.

There’s no doubt about that, but Wentz knows how to hand the ball off too.

 

Thats what the entire argument revolves around.  I don’t think anyone is clamoring for weeks 1-5 Wentz, roster or gameplan.  The curiosity is whether or not Wentz would be more effective running a similar gameplan that we’ve been running of late.

 

If the argument is we didn’t pay Wentz 28M to hand off 40 times a game, that’s fair.  But we also didnt pay him to sit the bench for 11 games.

 

If we were getting Heinicke from the Tampa playoff game or even those few games early last season that brought about the height of Heinicke mania, there is no curiosity.  

 

[Dan T.]

11 minutes ago, KDawg said:

 

 

I'm looking at literally everything and not chalking things up directly to Heinicke as the saviobinson and Gibson have more to do with the defense getting time to sit on the bench than Heinicke. Heinicke's limitations forced Turner into calling that kind of plan, a healthy Robinson let Gibson put less wear on the tires and used more dynamically, and injured OL returned to make our OL go from putrid to meh. 

 

That's my argument. Nothing beyond that.

 

I feel like I'm playing ping pong. 

 

You're fighting ghosts.  NOBODY on here thinks Heinicke is the "Savior" or the long-term answer.

[KDawg]

10 minutes ago, CommanderCarson said:

Fantastic post. Wentz threw for 100 yards less than Taylor’s average this year in the only gameplan Wentz had that was similar to what Taylor runs, and the same amount of sacks that Taylor has taken in the last 6 games. I don’t believe Nick Martin was his center that game either for what it’s worth. 

He had a broken hand.

1 minute ago, Dan T. said:

 

You're fighting ghosts.  NOBODY on here thinks Heinicke is the "Savior" or the long-term answer.

Then wtf am I talking to? 
 

Savior? No. But people are giving him entirely too much credit. 

Edited December 2, 2022 by KDawg

[BatteredFanSyndrome]

I see the whole “nobody thinks Heinicke is the savior, the future, etc.” posts a lot.  But then I read a lot of posts that describe a guy that sure as hell sounds like he is a savior and could be the future.  Often times the descriptions don’t match the disclaimers.

[sebestian]

Just now, KDawg said:

He had a broken hand.

@KDawg I would not even bother bro.  I know you have knowledge about that game.  I said way back that if Noodle Arm wins against Green Bay this board will be insufferable.  Boy was I wrong.....it's worse.   

[NickyJ]

The players play their hearts out for Heinicke. Ron doesn't deserve credit for this turnaround in the season, it only started when Heinicke played. They love him, they always say he "gives them a chance". Nobody else on this team has ever drawn that level of excellence from them. The defense has achieved next to perfection because Heinicke keeps them on the bench and well rested, the offense is converting exactly when it needs to, and Heinicke makes it so much easier for the offense because his passes are softer and easier to catch then the rockets that Wentz threw. Heinicke doesn't take back breaking sacks, he just keeps the team moving. We're 5-1 and knocked off the last undefeated team this season. They didn't do that because of Ron, Ron couldn't get the best out of them. They didn't do it because of Del Rio, he's the same as he ever was. They're doing it because they love Heinicke. There's just something to him that inspires them, some intangible, immeasurable thing that maybe one day they'll find a statistic for.

 

So many people on this thread have said that and agree with it. People who deny it are just haters at this point.

 

But nobody thinks that Heinicke is a savior or long-term answer.

Edited December 2, 2022 by NickyJ

[Ball Security]

24 minutes ago, BatteredFanSyndrome said:

There’s no doubt about that, but Wentz knows how to hand the ball off too.

 

Thats what the entire argument revolves around.  I don’t think anyone is clamoring for weeks 1-5 Wentz, roster or gameplan.  The curiosity is whether or not Wentz would be more effective running a similar gameplan that we’ve been running of late.

 

If the argument is we didn’t pay Wentz 28M to hand off 40 times a game, that’s fair.  But we also didnt pay him to sit the bench for 11 games.

 

If we were getting Heinicke from the Tampa playoff game or even those few games early last season that brought about the height of Heinicke mania, there is no curiosity.  

 

But why is there curiosity to see if Wentz can play this style?  Wouldn’t it be better to see if Howell can do this?  They are winning with this formula with Heinicke as the QB.  Why put a borderline playoff season at risk just to see if we should pay a guy $26M to hand the ball off?

 

Wentz is a sunk cost at this point.  Do we really want to bring him back next year to run this kind of offense when we could use that $26M to keep the strengths of this team intact?

[redskinss]

4 minutes ago, Ball Security said:

But why is there curiosity to see if Wentz can play this style?  Wouldn’t it be better to see if Howell can do this?  They are winning with this formula with Heinicke as the QB.  Why put a borderline playoff season at risk just to see if we should pay a guy $26M to hand the ball off?

 

Wentz is a sunk cost at this point.  Do we really want to bring him back next year to run this kind of offense when we could use that $26M to keep the strengths of this team intact?

Because wentz is capable of exploiting the deep play action opportunities that the run heavy scheme opens up and heinicke isn't