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The Official QB Thread- JD5 taken #2. Randall 2.0 or Bayou Bob? Mariotta and Hartman forever. Fromm cut


Koolblue13

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1 hour ago, Koolblue13 said:

Nobody balked at Wentz being traded for a 1rst and 3rd less than a year ago. For 3/4 of the year he was a top 10 QB and it looked like the Colts made out. Then Covid hit and they barely lost to a good Raiders team who were making the playoffs and then to a Jags team that's had their number for 8 straight years and it wasn't all on him. 

 

If we didn't up our offer on Wentz he'd have probably been a steeler and then we'd be where Carolina is, but with a worse draft position. 

 

We didn't over pay. We paid what we had to. And now we potentially have our QB. If not, we have the important picks and a QB with trade value.


I think this is a great take, imo, we’re truly lucky that we are all sitting here and having this conversation right now. Because if the colts make the playoffs and win even one of those games, he’s not our starting QB. He’s still a member of the Colts. 
 

I truly think Rivera and staff are jazzed about Wentz and are surprised at the somewhat negative backlash the move received. He’s a top 15 guy with the ability to be even more entering his prime. He owned like the number one QBR from weeks 5-16 or something like that and nobody could beat them. Yes he had Taylor, but he definitely didn’t have a Terry. I think that’s potentially why you’re seeing a slight shift in draft strategy. Had we gone with a Trubisky or Mariota maybe you sign an Allen Robinson and round out your defense at pick 11 and just pray the offense can do enough to get by and win a bunch of close games. With Wentz, you have the ability to actually score points and dictate to the defense on any down with his arm strength. It’s going to open up the short game for Gibson and Mccissick and Terry is going to get so many more chances deep and to take over. Why not surround him with as much young talent as you can and patch the defense with a couple of free agents after the draft? 

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9 minutes ago, CommanderCarson said:


I think this is a great take, imo, we’re truly lucky that we are all sitting here and having this conversation right now. Because if the colts make the playoffs and win even one of those games, he’s not our starting QB. He’s still a member of the Colts. 
 

I truly think Rivera and staff are jazzed about Wentz and are surprised at the somewhat negative backlash the move received. He’s a top 15 guy with the ability to be even more entering his prime. He owned like the number one QBR from weeks 5-16 or something like that and nobody could beat them. Yes he had Taylor, but he definitely didn’t have a Terry. I think that’s potentially why you’re seeing a slight shift in draft strategy. Had we gone with a Trubisky or Mariota maybe you sign an Allen Robinson and round out your defense at pick 11 and just pray the offense can do enough to get by and win a bunch of close games. With Wentz, you have the ability to actually score points and dictate to the defense on any down with his arm strength. It’s going to open up the short game for Gibson and Mccissick and Terry is going to get so many more chances deep and to take over. Why not surround him with as much young talent as you can and patch the defense with a couple of free agents after the draft? 

Makes sense but we need a backup.  Who do you think would be a viable backup for Wentz?  TH doesn't have the arm strength to get the ball down field like Carson does.  Do you think the Commanders draft a QB to learn under Carson?  If so, who do you think it would be or best fit?

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8 hours ago, illone said:

 

 

I am on board with this mindset.  This trade is really growing on me. 

 

I am kinda perplexed by anyone that would trade for 36 yo Matt Ryan over Wentz who hasn't cracked 30.  

 

Depends on where the team is at.  A 3rd rounder is obviously cheaper than a 2nd and third.  The cap hit a little better for Ryan, too.  Ryan IMO with a higher floor than Wentz.  Wentz with the higher ceiling at this point in their careers.   The wildcard with Ryan IMO is he had a down year and he's getting older.  Was that down year an exception or a new trend?  Will see.   

 

Some actually do think Ryan > Wentz.  Not hard to find articles that say so.  It was either Standig or Keim's podcast where they said they asked an executive from another team about it who told them Ryan is better than Wentz, and by a decent margin or something like that.  Personally I think Ryan if you take away his last season is a better QB than Wentz, too.  But its hard for me to just ignore that last season.  So that reason along with Wentz's age and his upside, I'd prefer Wentz. 

 

Forgetting which podcast I heard it on but in one they said Reich and Ballard didn't want to trade Wentz.  But those two are also happy they ended up Ryan and they are happier to have Ryan than they would be to have Wentz next season.  It sounded believable to me.  Forgetting who said it but if I recall it was a Colts reporter who wasn't that down on Wentz.  In the Colts situation, if I had to pick a theme they crave more consistency and more clutch play than they felt they got from Wentz.  Apparently, Wentz wasn't hot in tight games last year and in big moments.  Wresting all the narratives, that seems to be the theme.  And it culminated in the Jacksonville game.  As I've said before it feels very much like Kirk's departure after the 2016 season -- similar narrative on some fronts.  Kirk lasted one more year but that season seemed to seal his fate.

 

Personally, I think it depends on what you are looking for.  Supposedly the "real" two reasons the Colts got rid of Wentz isn't the leadership stuff.  But in their eyes he's too much a roller coaster and not clutch -- supposedly Reich-Ballard were ok with living with that and hoping to work through it but they did have concerns.  As for Irsay it was that and the COVID drill -- and he was aghast supposedly that not everyone in the locker room loved Wentz.  But how many players are loved by everyone is a locker room?  As some reporters have said, Wentz not being embraced by everyone isn't an uncommon thing for all NFL players.  Few are loved by everyone.  Different strokes for different folks. 

 

Personally, I like the outcome.  I like that we got Wentz.  And I'd guess I have to be one of the top 5 here in terms of having Rivera's back.  But yeah count me in the minority here as for someone who loves having Wentz but also thinking Ballard played Rivera.  It doesn't IMO have to be an all or nothing drill.  Where if you love having the player you also have to love the compensation Rivera gave up and pat Rivera on the back for giving up the perfect amount of compensation. 

 

I've listened to enough narratives from Colts reporters to get that picture painted pretty strongly.  The Steelers looked to have some interest.  But hearing the narrative it felt like we were bidding in fear that the Steelers would eventually bid high versus them actually doing it.  Even guys like Albert Breer who sells Rivera on everything, heck even did his bidding with the article about how this was a hot desitnation spot, didn't love the value of the deal and hinted it was an overpay.

 

My other reason why I hang on this point is Chris Ballard who I have watched over the years in different segments.  The Colts filmed their FO in a series.  He's considered boy wonder, etc.  He is the closest thing to Howie Roseman in having a reputation of holding out to get a "deal" when he makes trades.  He prides himself on that.  He's the type of dude you want buying or selling your house.  It's what he's known for among other things.    Even reading about the Ryan deal, as desperate as they were for a QB, he held out to get a value deal.  He's one of the best drafters in the NFL, he values draft picks like gold. 

 

But if I had to guess one reason why supposedly the Colts brass (even Reich) preferred Ryan, its clutch play.  I haven't studied Wentz as far as clutch play so I don't have an opinion yet as for whether that criticism is warranted.  But I couldn't miss that it was the one common theme from Colts reporters.  But in Wentz's defense they all thought he was a good guy -- so the bad dude-bad leader stuff comes off as BS. 

 

 

Ranking the NFL's 5 Most Clutch Quarterbacks This Season

5. Matt Ryan, Atlanta Falcons

When it comes to elite quarterbacks this year, Matt Ryan of the Atlanta Falcons isn't the first guy who comes to mind. 

But his performance late in games paints a dire picture as to where the Falcons would be without him. 

Ryan, who is tied for sixth all-time in fourth-quarter comebacks with 33, is tied for third in the NFL this season with three and has a trio of game-winning drives. He's also completing 67.7 percent of his pass attempts.

Even more impressive, all three of his comebacks occurred on the road. In Week 3, he led a late drive to secure a 17-14 win over the New York Giants. In Week 7, his team defeated Miami 30-28. And in Week 9, the Falcons recorded a 27-25 victory over the New Orleans Saints. 

The fact that Ryan led drives that secured three of the team's four wins speaks to his lethality when it matters most. He's doing it on a rebuilding team while backed by a defense that allows 28.8 points per game, the league's second-worst mark.    

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2950676-ranking-the-nfls-5-most-clutch-quarterbacks-this-season

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Love Rivera but no one is perfect.  I'll add another criticism for him as to compensation.  Him slow playing the contract with Terry probably ended up costing us an extra 4 million or so a year on the cap.

 

I get he has his comfort zone in preferring to negotiate in the summer after FA and the draft is done.  But if he juggled more balls in the air, he'd have IMO likely saved some money.  Allowing WRs to set the market higher and then kick in and negotiate afterwards IMO likely proves to be a mistake.

 

I am listening to the talk on 980 right now about Terry getting 24 million a year, I think based on the Spotac mention.  If they did this at the start of the off season, granted Terry's side would have to be amenable, i think the price tag would have been cheaper. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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1 minute ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

I am listening to the talk on 980 right now about Terry getting 24 million a year, I think based on a Spotac article?  If they did this at the start of the off season, granted Terry's side would have to be amenable, i think the price tag would have been cheaper. 

I would guess his agent was strongly advising they wait until free agency kicked in. The Kirk deal was a shocker, but the Adams situation was always on the boil.

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5 minutes ago, Est.1974 said:

I would guess his agent was strongly advising they wait until free agency kicked in. The Kirk deal was a shocker, but the Adams situation was always on the boil.

 

It's not just those deals.  Tyreeks' money.  Digg's extension.  Assuming that the market wouldn't be reset, was a big assumption and a bad one if that's what they thought IMO.  

 

Not sure it was purely about the agent.  I've heard building up that this the FO liked to do their deals in the summer.  It's something that Rivera even talked about.  Keim said he heard, etc.  

 

Other WRs including Moore have done deals recently.  Tough for me to believe that its just Terry's agent holding out and its incidental that Rivera just happens to prefer to do these negotiations in the summer.

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4 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

It's not just those deals.  Tyreeks' money.  Digg's extension.  Assuming that the market wouldn't be reset, was a big assumption and a bad one if that's what they thought IMO.  

 

Not sure it was purely about the agent.  I've heard building up that this the FO liked to do their deals in the summer.  It's something that Rivera even talked about.  Keim said he heard, etc.  

 

Other WRs including Moore have done deals recently.  Tough for me to believe that its just Terry's agent holding out and its incidental that Rivera just happens to prefer to do these negotiations in the summer.

I’m not convinced his plan was to wait for the summer. However, it’s not that clear. He said FA plans changed after the got Wentz and ‘they wanted to look after a couple of their own guys’...Yes, agree that getting a deal done earlier would have been more cost effective. I do think that may not have been ‘that’ possible in this case. Terry is a prime player at his position.

 

Plus, I said a couple of times that I think he shares an agent with DeAndre Carter, who is also stalling for ‘big’ money, in context of course. Who knows.

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11 minutes ago, Est.1974 said:

I’m not convinced his plan was to wait for the summer. However, it’s not that clear. He said FA plans changed after the got Wentz and ‘they wanted to look after a couple of their own guys’...Yes, agree that getting a deal done earlier would have been more cost effective. I do think that may not have been ‘that’ possible in this case. Terry is a prime player at his position.

 

Plus, I said a couple of times that I think he shares an agent with DeAndre Carter, who is also stalling for ‘big’ money, in context of course. Who knows.

 

I am close to convinced that was the intention.  Rivera himself talked about that's when he likes to do these negotiations.  He's talked about it multiple times including not long ago.  

 

Did those intentions change of late?  Don't know.  Doesn't feel that way because Rivera implied this not long ago, citing that's when they did the Allen contract.   

 

As for Deandre Carter I think that's apples to oranges.  i am the one who posted here that I heard in a podcast that Deandre was asking for more money than they expected.  But they were at least talking to him.  I am trying to recall where I heard it but could have sworn that I heard that they really weren't even talking to Terry about this yet and the plan was to do it later. 

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Correct me if I'm wrong but terry has only been eligible for an extension for three weeks.

It's not exactly like we've been dragging our feet here.

 

No way Terry signs an extension without seeing what the free agent market does, I don't see anything we've done wrong so far.

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12 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

So overall I get the arguments on both sides.  And my point is both sides can be right on different fronts -- I don't think the typical trade has an all or nothing outcome.  Some grey IMO.  Overall my position is I like the outcome of having Wentz but i also believe Rivera could have gotten him cheaper if he was patient.

I think there's an equal chance had Rivera remained patient, Wentz would be in Pittsburgh and we'd be kicking the tires on Trubisky and Mariota.  I have to factor who we are into the equation of Rivera's decision making process.  

 

I just don't see us as being in a position to 'win the deal' until if and when, we become an enticing destination.  We learned the hard way what it was like to flirt around like we're on equal footing with the legit franchises in the league under Bruce Allen.  Ron obviously brings much more class and grace, but until he builds a winner we're still seen as dysfunction junction, with a half empty stadium mostly filled with opposing fans that get poop sprayed all over them while they’re not falling over the railing.

Edited by BatteredFanSyndrome
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54 minutes ago, BatteredFanSyndrome said:

I think there's an equal chance had Rivera remained patient, Wentz would be in Pittsburgh and we'd be kicking the tires on Trubisky and Mariota.  I have to factor who we are into the equation of Rivera's decision making process.  

 

I just don't see us as being in a position to 'win the deal' until if and when, we become an enticing destination.  We learned the hard way what it was like to flirt around like we're on equal footing with the legit franchises in the league under Bruce Allen.  Ron obviously brings much more class and grace, but until he builds a winner we're still seen as dysfunction junction, with a half empty stadium mostly filled with opposing fans that get poop sprayed all over them while their not falling over the railing.

 

No doubt they have to take extra steps to land their guy here sometimes considering the state of the franchise.   But I just tend to ride for better or worse when I get a preponderance of information pointed in one direction. It doesn't always work out for me to ride it like that but often it does.  Maybe later on there will be a story that there was this aggressive bidding war that escaped the grasp of the media.  No doubt that's possible. 

 

But for now considering the information I've digested, it feels like Ron didn't get a house in the neighborhood he craved, see Russell Wilson.  So he scoped out the next best neighborhood he liked and came at it with the attitude of he won't be denied.   And that's OK.

 

And if framed that way, I can ride with the compensation.  That is, we will pay whatever we need to pay and won't be denied out of this neighborhood.  That's kind of how it feels to me digesting all the narratives.

 

I've had Rivera's back on making this deal.  I still like it because i like the outcome and feared some other outcomes.  But I am not going to pretend i believe based on what i heard he played it well with Ballard.  It feels closer to when I was shopping for a house with my wife and my wife tipped off the buyer that she really really likes it.  And we had a private conversation about it, with the conclusion of lets top their asking price by $20,000 and ensure there isn't even an off chance we lose on it. 

 

I've really chased down in particular the two narratives I hear the most which is the Eagles and Colts wanted to get rid of him (not true in the Eagles case, and mostly not true in Colts case.  Ditto the leadership-bad guy stuff.  Also mostly not true. So I've defended the move a lot. 

 

And I get the vibe if you like the player, embrace everything about what went down to get the player.   It feels more like sunshine and rainbows if we got the right player and Rivera killed it too as for the compensation.  I do buy the former point but don't buy the later the more information I've digested.  But to paraphrase Rivera himself -- who cares what the Rams gave up for Stafford, does anyone care now? 

 

I feel the same way about Wentz.  So no sour grapes. If he works out, who cares what they gave up.  But going back to my house analogy.  We got the house, its cool, but no I don't think we played the seller.  We overpaid some.  but we did it with the mindset that we weren't going to lose.  So framed that way as to the Wentz deal, I'd agree it was well played.

 

Do I think they could have gotten him cheaper and still outbid the Steelers.  Absolutely based on what I've heard.  Taking on Wentz's full cap hit.  Trading a 2nd and third.  And even giving the Colts a higher draft pick in the 2nd.  Bravo to Ballard.  I do agree with most of the national media that Ballard killed it on the deal itself.   While I get the Steelers had some interest.  i don't get the idea that it was a burning interest where a major bidding war was taking place. 

 

But the outcome is we got the house.  And I am happy we did.  But yeah I am not celebrating Rivera's negotiation skills as part of this.  But if its framed that he won't be denied, celebrate that, I can ride with that.  Actually thinking about my own real estate transaction and using it as an analogy to this deal, it actually makes me feel better about the compensation because I've got it framed now in a different way in my mind. 

Edited by Skinsinparadise
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33 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

But the outcome is we got the house.  And I am happy we did.  But yeah I am not celebrating Rivera's negotiation skills as part of this.  But if its framed that he won't be denied, celebrate that, I can ride with that.  Actually thinking about my own real estate transaction and using it as an analogy to this deal, it actually makes me feel better about the compensation because I've got it framed now in a different way in my mind. 

I'm not under the impression we got a great deal or that Rivera is a master negotiator by any stretch, I'm just trying to envision the situation from his point of view is all.  If he sat back and let things play out, there's a high likelihood we don't end up with Wentz and have to dumpster dive.  To fit your analogy, I'd rather pay $20k over asking to get the house that we believe will fit our needs, than make a lower offer and have them go with another buyer, and now the only thing left on the market is a double wide trailer, that's obviously affordable but way less than ideal for what we want.

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If the jets got a 2 a 4 and a 6 for Sam darnold last year how in the world are we even thinking wentz isn't worth a 3 and a conditional 3 that hopefully becomes a 2?

Just look at the compensation teams give up for unknown quantities at the position in the draft only to have them flame out.

We know first hand we're one of the biggest in recent memory.

 

Wentz may not work out here but a 2nd and a 3rd is peanuts for a guy with his physical skill set and someone who has had more than just flashes of potential. 

 

Everyone's opinion is valid but I for the life of me can't wrap my head around how we'd rather have our 3rd this year and next year and be in Carolinas position than have wentz and still have a 1 and 2 this year.

 

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10 hours ago, RWJ said:

Makes sense but we need a backup.  Who do you think would be a viable backup for Wentz?  TH doesn't have the arm strength to get the ball down field like Carson does.  Do you think the Commanders draft a QB to learn under Carson?  If so, who do you think it would be or best fit?


I actually LOVE heineke as a backup but that’s just me. He can’t physically hang for 17 games as a starter but he’s a spark plug that can win you a couple of games if necessary and that’s exactly what you want out of a backup QB.

 

If Ridder fell to the second (doubt it) I’d be all over it even though it’s probably not the best allocation of resources with Wentz already here and I worry that it already alienates him from the start so I tend to doubt we go that direction. Carson Strong if he falls to that third round range would be tempting as well. I don’t know enough about the later round guys but I’ll have to continue to look into! 

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1 hour ago, BatteredFanSyndrome said:

If he sat back and let things play out, there's a high likelihood we don't end up with Wentz and have to dumpster dive.  To fit your analogy, I'd rather pay $20k over asking to get the house that we believe will fit our needs, than make a lower offer and have them go with another buyer, and now the only thing left on the market is a double wide trailer, that's obviously affordable but way less than ideal for what we want.

 

Just grabbing this for future ref

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1 hour ago, CommanderCarson said:


I actually LOVE heineke as a backup but that’s just me. He can’t physically hang for 17 games as a starter but he’s a spark plug that can win you a couple of games if necessary and that’s exactly what you want out of a backup QB.

 

If Ridder fell to the second (doubt it) I’d be all over it even though it’s probably not the best allocation of resources with Wentz already here and I worry that it already alienates him from the start so I tend to doubt we go that direction. Carson Strong if he falls to that third round range would be tempting as well. I don’t know enough about the later round guys but I’ll have to continue to look into! 

Thank you for your input, CC.  I think with so many needs and I like Ridder a lot, we have to draft other positions but we do need a backup QB capable of getting the ball down field.  I think Jack Caon of ND has enough moxie he could develop into a decent QB.  

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47 minutes ago, BatteredFanSyndrome said:

Okay, champ.

 

not like that. Just liked the analogy and wanted it in my timeline so I can find it easily.

 

I don't think I have seen you argue that it was not an overpay. Its not for use against you, which is what I imply you are thinking?

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2 hours ago, BatteredFanSyndrome said:

I'm not under the impression we got a great deal or that Rivera is a master negotiator by any stretch, I'm just trying to envision the situation from his point of view is all.  If he sat back and let things play out, there's a high likelihood we don't end up with Wentz and have to dumpster dive.  To fit your analogy, I'd rather pay $20k over asking to get the house that we believe will fit our needs, than make a lower offer and have them go with another buyer, and now the only thing left on the market is a double wide trailer, that's obviously affordable but way less than ideal for what we want.

 

I think there was a more happy medium way he could play it.  But like i said i am cool with the outcome.   I am not worked up over it.  The bottom line is he got the house.

 

I think part of it for me is I've read many times how Ballard prides himself as the ultimate negotiator who worships draft picks.   Granted, he's not been perfect on that front but he's a really good GM IMO.   With that framework I admire both how cheap he got Ryan and the haul he got for Wentz -- especially after they foolishly slammed Wentz so much publicly where it felt like they were devaluing their own asset.

 

But the bottom line is i am cool with the result.   I think we will like the trade over the long haul.  Will see. 

 

 

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30 minutes ago, FootballZombie said:

 

not like that. Just liked the analogy and wanted it in my timeline so I can find it easily.

 

I don't think I have seen you argue that it was not an overpay. Its not for use against you, which is what I imply you are thinking?

I honestly didn't know what you meant by it - because I was thinking if that's what you were doing, I've made a lot of other more definitive statements to be filed for later.  

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2 hours ago, redskinss said:

If the jets got a 2 a 4 and a 6 for Sam darnold last year how in the world are we even thinking wentz isn't worth a 3 and a conditional 3 that hopefully becomes a 2?

Just look at the compensation teams give up for unknown quantities at the position in the draft only to have them flame out.

We know first hand we're one of the biggest in recent memory.

 

Wentz may not work out here but a 2nd and a 3rd is peanuts for a guy with his physical skill set and someone who has had more than just flashes of potential. 

 

Everyone's opinion is valid but I for the life of me can't wrap my head around how we'd rather have our 3rd this year and next year and be in Carolinas position than have wentz and still have a 1 and 2 this year.

 

That's a good point. The market for QBs is just crazy. Darnold was ass in 2020, like Dewey Haskins level bad, and still fetched some kind of return.

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To provide a bit more color on where I'm coming from with this, I had conditioned myself to expect one of these 3 options:

 

Jimmy G - for a 2nd+ & a new contract

Trubisky 

Matt Ryan - for a little more than what the Colts paid + most of his salary

 

All of which I didn't like - not that I dislike Ryan, but know it would be a short term situation, and I expected to foot more of the bill than the Colts did.  But trading anything for Jimmy + paying him was pretty much my worst nightmare.  Trubisky would have been my worst nightmare but I figured it'd be a cheap, short term, prove it deal we could easily get out of.  But all in all, I liked none of these options.

 

So when the notification that we acquired Wentz popped up on my phone, I wasn't fist pumping with joy about it - but felt some sense of relief that we weren't going the above route.  The character stuff honestly never really concerned me as it surely felt personal from the moment those leaks came out.  What I liked was that he's shown the ability to elevate his game in the past, should have a great big boulder on his shoulder, and the deal has an escape route if we're wrong.  Beyond that, I like the fact that there's actually a chance he could be here for the long haul - I wouldn't bet on it, but there's a chance.  And honestly the reason I wouldn't bet on it has less to do with Wentz and more to do with our history of everything we do never working out.  I had already conditioned myself that we would have to overpay to some extent no matter who we acquired, which is probably why I'm less taken aback by what we offered.

 

I also agree that Ballard appears to be the real deal but at the same time I feel like they got very, very lucky that Ryan all the sudden became an option to them.  I can credit him with pulling it off in the fashion he did for sure, but still feel that Irsay doesn't deserve Ryan with how he handled Wentz.  Even if you hate the guys guts, you're supposed to give the appearance you love them - same beef I had with Bruce/Kirk back in the day, it shows a complete lack of professionalism to devalue your asset out of emotion.

 

 

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