The Official QB Thread- JD5 taken #2. Randall 2.0 or Bayou Bob? Mariotta and Hartman forever. Fromm cut

[Redd]

1 hour ago, MartinC said:

I continue to repeat we are fortunate to have a choice of two blue chip prospects at a position we have a huge need.

Thank you MartinC. This thread is bananas with some of these heated takes.

[Ghost of]

Sorry both Maye and Daniels had a chart. Maybe it's just a summation of stats we've seen a million times.

 

Someone telling me bust elite pct doesn't help if I don't see how they derive it,  at least in part. 

[Ghost of]

Something that just got recommended to me.  Remember that dude who posted on Twitter about on-target percentage on throws over 25+? Remember how I asked who he was affiliated with,  that it seemed very subjective?

 

https://www.sportingnews.com/us/nfl/news/jj-mccarthy-might-scare-vikings-key-area-nfl-draft/3ae031391ce6efb4e359dc9a

 

"Kinnan found, especially since the adjusted accuracy for throws 20+ down the field from Pro Football Focus has him second. That discrepancy tells us that once you get past 25 yards his accuracy decreases dramatically."

 

That's not what a thinking person would take away from one stat from a respected outfit and another of just 5 yards difference from some dude. That dude may even be right but a thinking person would be skeptical of the guy coming up with his own measures and find it unlikely that 5 yards at that level of depth makes a difference. 

 

Steve McQueen already talks about Daniels deep balls which makes you wonder how our resident analyst would grade out each throw.

[Always A Commander Never A Captain]

1 hour ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

PFF guys are pro Maye -- but not to the extreme extent as some here where Daniels is sort of laughed at #2.   The Football Outsiders guy and Warren Sharp pick Daniels over Maye.

 

So it feels a bit mixed on the analytics

 

 

Drake Maye, North Carolina
Consensus Big Board: 2

MEAN PROJECTION	0.03 TDYAR/A
Bust (< 0 TDYAR/A)	49.2%
Adequate Starter (0-0.75 TDYAR/A)	25.6%
Upper Tier (0.75-1.5 TDYAR/A)	16.3%
Elite (> 1.5 TDYAR/A)	8.9%

Maye is viewed by many as the second-best quarterback prospect in this draft. However, QBASE is more skeptical, because relative to the other prospects, his college statistics were not that impressive (for instance, his 63.3 completion percentage in 2023). In addition, Maye was only a two-year starter, and his 2023 performance regressed relative to 2022.

Yes, there were circumstances at the North Carolina program that may be responsible for that decline, such as the departure of Maye's top two receivers for the NFL (Josh Downs and Antoine Green). And there are quarterbacks with relatively lackluster college statistics who have excelled in the pros, such as Josh Allen. Maye's great arm talent and skill make him a strong candidate to do so. But college statistics are correlated with NFL success here, so Maye's projection is lower than it would be otherwise.

---

Jayden Daniels, LSU
Consensus Big Board: 4

MEAN PROJECTION	0.34 TDYAR/A
Bust (< 0 TDYAR/A)	37.7%
Adequate Starter (0-0.75 TDYAR/A)	27.2%
Upper Tier (0.75-1.5 TDYAR/A)	20.7%
Elite (> 1.5 TDYAR/A)	14.4%

Daniels put up video game numbers in 2023, claiming the Heisman Trophy in the process. His passer rating of 208.0 was an FBS record, and he completed 72.2% of his passes for 11.7 yards per attempt. Not only that, but his 8.4 rushing yards per attempt exceeded every one of Lamar Jackson's seasons at Louisville.

However, there are still concerns. He is a one-year wonder who took too many sacks, he got to throw to a projected top-10 pick in Malik Nabers, and teams will worry about his ability to stay healthy because he runs so much at a slender 6-foot-4, 210 pounds. Then again, the last time a Heisman-winning one-year wonder with an elite receiver came out of LSU (Joe Burrow), it worked out well for the team that drafted him. Ultimately, QBASE favors Daniels over Maye as QB2 in this class.

 

For funsies, QBASE is a stat to peruse to pass the time. But it's not a good one.

 

It had Bryce Young as a superior prospect to CJ Stroud, I think it gave Stroud a bust chance comparable to Maye's while Young was 10% lower? Similarly, it's ratios of Bust, Adequate, Elite, etc show Stroud, Maye, and Kenny Pickett as comparable prospects.

 

It bombed the 2018 draft. It had Darnold and Rosen really high.

[Llevron]

How do we determine how much of Daniels’ 2023 is just an outlier or if he showed steady improvement over his career? There has to be a way to try and make an argument one way or the other. I looked at some of his basic stats and he almost doubled his productivity year over year from 2021-2023 but I can’t find any of these advanced stats that show year over year. 
 

Asking because I have heard both arguments; That it’s just an outlier and he had a hot year. AND that he has improved year over year. The only correlation I have currently is that people who say he is a one year wonder are mostly stat dudes. The ones saying he showed improvement are film guys. So I’m questioning where that middle ground is cause it always exists. 
 

 

[Ghost of]

Just now, Always A Commander Never A Captain said:

 

For funsies, QBASE is a stat to peruse to pass the time. But it's not a good one.

 

It had Bryce Young as a superior prospect to CJ Stroud, I think it gave Stroud a bust chance comparable to Maye's while Young was 10% lower? Similarly, it's ratios of Bust, Adequate, Elite, etc show Stroud, Maye, and Kenny Pickett as comparable prospects.

 

 

Arguably a team needs to determine its own criteria and develop a model they're comfortable with. 

 

What proportion is P2S ratio going to enter in? If you have a narrative/Qual reason why it is less important you need to apply it even to a non target and determine if you're applying the standard rationally. 

 

So if a guy doesn't pass over the middle, I don't want to hear gruden talk about how that's not their offense. You have to be confident over the middle in the NFL. I want to see that narrative excuse applied in another case and make sure that the other criteria are still putting distance between a 6th round guy and the top 8 QBs you're looking at. 

 

Like Milton may have the strongest arm or top 2 in the draft but he's never been a really good QB.

 

I think teams may want to look into ruling guys out using some model. Like P2S ratio plus pressured dropback rating plus sq root of S2 lol.  Whatever.  At least there you can begin validating your own data model. 

 

[SkinsFTW]

5 minutes ago, Llevron said:

How do we determine how much of Daniels’ 2023 is just an outlier or if he showed steady improvement over his career? There has to be a way to try and make an argument one way or the other. I looked at some of his basic stats and he almost doubled his productivity year over year from 2021-2023 but I can’t find any of these advanced stats that show year over year. 
 

Asking because I have heard both arguments; That it’s just an outlier and he had a hot year. AND that he has improved year over year. The only correlation I have currently is that people who say he is a one year wonder are mostly stat dudes. The ones saying he showed improvement are film guys. So I’m questioning where that middle ground is cause it always exists. 
 

 

 

Well clearly he improved but I still have a problem with 23, 20% passing when pressured, no anticipation, few middle of the field throws. And hes going to be 25-26 by the time this team should be competitive, not good for a runner.

 

+Side is he is still improving, but how good would Maye be 2 years at LSU?

[Rolo Tomasie]

Some of the articles that mention Maye passing on millions of NIL money to stay at UNC state it like it's a feather in his cap from a personality perspective. I'm not sure it is. I like Maye better than Daniels for most reasons but given what transpired in the 2023 season and what is happening now, I firmly wish he had moved to a higher profile, better-coached and more talented team. I think he would have cemented his status and teams could compare the 2 guys on a more level platform. Also, turning down millions and a shot at competing for a NC may signal a lack of competitive hunger. And if he though UNC was gonna have any kind of shot then he is a poor estimator of coaching and teammate talent, for whatever that's worth. Anyway, that decision could be what changes the Maye, Commanders, Peters, and Quinn trajectories and legacies.

Edited April 14 by Rolo Tomasie

[Hooper]

Hope good coaching and time can overcome this --

 

 

[Ghost of]

BTW, velocity, while not the only factor in throwing distance is the most important.

 

Milton was at 62 mph and McCarthy was 61 mph. While he needs to improve his touch on certain throws, I don't think people are properly rating his arm strength.  He has thrown absurd balls before and I think people critiquing his arm are way off base. 

 

Also, if Daniels doesn't throw after pressure and doesn't throw off platform, is it not really his running that's the reason he's above Maye or McCarthy? Like aren't we looking for a guy who can operate from and manipulate the pocket,  throw with accuracy on the run etc?

[Voice_of_Reason]

3 minutes ago, Hooper said:

Hope good coaching and time can overcome this --

 

 

Quite frankly, I’m inclined to think this is a crap metric.  Because I’m not sure who’s doing that type of analysis and what they define as on target or clean.

 

And that’s not because I favor one QB over the other. 
 

I think Sharpe is a bit of an overzealous stats nazi who makes things up at times and has the worst possible online video skills and a horrible mustache.

 

He sortof turned into a “look how smart I am with stats” version of Chris Simms.  Who’s just a carnival barker moron. 
 

About 15% of his stuff is brilliant. The problem is he has to fill out the rest of the 85% stuff and it’s generally drek.

[Ghost of]

7 minutes ago, Hooper said:

Hope good coaching and time can overcome this --

 

*Patrick Bateman meme* Let's see JJ McCarthy's stats...

[Always A Commander Never A Captain]

7 minutes ago, Ghost of said:

 

Arguably a team needs to determine its own criteria and develop a model they're comfortable with. 

 

What proportion is P2S ratio going to enter in? If you have a narrative/Qual reason why it is less important you need to apply it even to a non target and determine if you're applying the standard rationally. 

 

So if a guy doesn't pass over the middle, I don't want to hear gruden talk about how that's not their offense. You have to be confident over the middle in the NFL. I want to see that narrative excuse applied in another case and make sure that the other criteria are still putting distance between a 6th round guy and the top 8 QBs you're looking at. 

 

Like Milton may have the strongest arm or top 2 in the draft but he's never been a really good QB.

 

I think teams may want to look into ruling guys out using some model. Like P2S ratio plus pressured dropback rating plus sq root of S2 lol.  Whatever.  At least there you can begin validating your own data model. 

 

 

I think P2S needs far more nuance. I want pressure outcomes on down, distance, play action vs no, how clean is the rest of the pocket during pressure (can the QB step up easily?), then types of passes after pressure, rate of passes etc, then how the sacks happen.

 

Caleb's scrambling against pressure is a negative but the sacks and fumbles are brutal. Whereas Maye and Daniels can feel pressure and then try and escape vertically, fail, but those sacks are lower yardage lost.

 

So also figuring out how bad the sack was for that drive. P2S can have a lot more nuance...and I want that but obviously that's not a free bundle of stats we have access to.

[Ghost of]

5 minutes ago, Always A Commander Never A Captain said:

 

I think P2S needs far more nuance. I want pressure outcomes on down, distance, play action vs no, how clean is the rest of the pocket during pressure (can the QB step up easily?), then types of passes after pressure, rate of passes etc, then how the sacks happen.

 

Caleb's scrambling against pressure is a negative but the sacks and fumbles are brutal. Whereas Maye and Daniels can feel pressure and then try and escape vertically, fail, but those sacks are lower yardage lost.

 

So also figuring out how bad the sack was for that drive. P2S can have a lot more nuance...and I want that but obviously that's not a free bundle of stats we have access to.

We do sort of.  For instance Daniels only passes on... was it 20% of plays where he was pressured? If a QUARTERBACK is opting not to throw the ball that often due to a pressure, presumably including throwaways (which are usually good plays), then I'm not interested. 

 

Also P2S ratio may itself constitute a measure that can avoid collinearity. But I agree just taking a look at the specific outcomes would be useful if you're trying to build a model incorporating p2s ratio. 

Edited April 14 by Ghost of

[Dah-Dee]

I thought PFF did a pretty good job of summing up the red-flag analytics on Daniels, while also noting areas of improvement:

 

https://www.pff.com/news/draft-2024-nfl-draft-college-to-pro-projections-lsu-qb-jayden-daniels

HOW DANIELS RANKS IN THE STABLE METRICS

The most stable facets of quarterback play are those with the biggest sample sizes — even though they intuitively seem “easier.” When projecting a quarterback’s future output, their performance from a clean pocket, on early downs and with no play action should be weighted heavily, and these are strong components when projecting PFF’s Wins Above Replacement metric. Good quarterbacks dominate these situations, while lesser quarterbacks rank near the bottom of the league. Negatively graded plays are also highly correlated from year to year, meaning the quarterback is largely in control of their negatives, while their positive plays may fluctuate due to supporting cast and play calling.

Compared to other players with PFF college data, Daniels’ metrics in the most predictive of data subsets measure up poorly.

Jayden Daniels’ percentile ranks in the most stable passing stats since 2019.

 

Despite his not ranking very well in PFF’s career stable metrics, there’s no denying Daniels' improvement in college. In 2023, Daniels ranked in the 93rd, 93rd and 92nd percentile in clean-pocket grade, standard-dropback grade and first-and-second-down grade, respectively.

 

Edited April 14 by Dah-Dee

[FlyBigBeard]

28 minutes ago, Llevron said:

How do we determine how much of Daniels’ 2023 is just an outlier or if he showed steady improvement over his career? There has to be a way to try and make an argument one way or the other. I looked at some of his basic stats and he almost doubled his productivity year over year from 2021-2023 but I can’t find any of these advanced stats that show year over year. 
 

Asking because I have heard both arguments; That it’s just an outlier and he had a hot year. AND that he has improved year over year. The only correlation I have currently is that people who say he is a one year wonder are mostly stat dudes. The ones saying he showed improvement are film guys. So I’m questioning where that middle ground is cause it always exists. 
 

 

So....He had one good year with elite skill position talent around him ✔️ Yeah no thank you. Double it and give it to the next guy. 

[redskinss]

It feels like the draft propaganda train adds an engine every year and gets bigger stronger and faster.

It's probably because I'm standing right in front of it this year running for my life but this year it feels completely out of control.

 

Every time willy tinkle nuts comes out with a stat that shows jayden daniels is not good past ten yards on even days of the month when there's a full moon someone posts a tweet from billy blathernackle that shows maye struggles throwing on the run any time he's more than 2700 miles from the equator and there's an east to west wind of more than ten miles per hour.

 

I get the disection to a degree but we are being played by the media like marionettes and its all by design.

[Llevron]

4 minutes ago, Ghost of said:

We do sort of.  For instance Daniels only passes on... was it 20% of plays where he was pressured? If a QUARTERBACK is opting not to throw the ball that often due to a pressure, presumably including throwaways (which are usually good plays), then I'm not interested. 

Do we know if that number includes throw aways? And have you SEEN the plays he makes when running? It’s not like dude is passing up huge plays for 5 yards. He turning down a pass that might connect for a run that might end in a TD. 
 

He is a statistical anomaly by nature. It makes sense some of his number look like that. 
 

Easy context. If those number include throw aways/incompletions, then the numbers do not provide indication of how many more plays he is making than the other guys. I would take a 20 yard scamper over a throw away 100 times out of 100. 
 

(If they don’t include throw aways then it’s a stupid point honestly) 

[Ghost of]

Dah-dee thank you!

 

So he ranks not so great in what they feel are stable measure stats... please someone save this team from itself lol

 

I also like that a QB is in control of negative plays and they account for year to year differences more attributable to receivers, other variables etc. 

[Rufus T Firefly]

One thing I've learned from all the stats and metrics being posted is that all these QBs are terrible, while simultaneously great. 

[Dah-Dee]

Just now, Llevron said:

And have you SEEN the plays he makes when running? It’s not like dude is passing up huge plays for 5 yards. He turning down a pass that might connect for a run that might end in a TD. 
 

He is a statistical anomaly by nature. It makes sense some of his number look like that. 

 

It seems true that Daniels is a different animal as a runner:

 

https://www.fantasylife.com/articles/dynasty/jayden-daniels-scouting-report-and-fantasy-football-outlook

 

Daniels’s rate of 0.31 missed tackles forced per rush attempt tops what guys like Lamar Jackson (0.25), Justin Fields (0.24), Jalen Hurts (0.22), and Kyler Murray (0.18) achieved during their collegiate careers.

 

On top of that, his 28.5% explosive run play rate is within shouting distance of what Jackson (30.5%), Murray (30.6%) and Malik Willis (31.9%) managed in college.

 

The fact that Daniels achieved this against the best competition that college football had to offer also matters. It’s not an exaggeration to suggest that Daniels could be immediately one of the most productive runners at QB the second he steps onto an NFL field.

 

[Llevron]

7 minutes ago, FlyBigBeard said:

So....He had one good year with elite skill position talent around him ✔️ Yeah no thank you. Double it and give it to the next guy. 

Right. It’s obviously shallow and uneducated opinions like this that get repeated by the stat dude that make me feel like their opinions should be valued almost as much as yours lol

[Sacks 'n' Stuff]

I want my quarterback to have closer to zero forced missed tackles per run.

[Rolo Tomasie]

Just now, Sacks 'n' Stuff said:

I want my quarterback to have closer to zero forced missed tackles per run.

Well that's over the top but speaking of over the top I would rather never ever have my QB jump into contact with a tackler.

[Ghost of]

I want a passer at QB, not a guy who "can't work the middle because his <cpu> too little"

 

Of Dah-dee post above, he clearly ranks poorly in passing predictive stats. That's not good I don't care how good he is running.  I want guys who use the run to set up pass.